Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four governance risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

5 min read0 figures1 table19 notesNR-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Governance is the layer that sets the rules for every other system
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Debt-service squeeze under aid cuts, thinner oversight and a health or food shock
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS14-GOV-001

    Erosion of institutional checks and civic space

    Driver
    autocratization recorded by three index families123
    Exposure
    41% of the world’s people live in autocratizing countries1
    Vulnerability
    media censorship used in 32 autocratizing countries and civil society repression in 301
    Capacity
    independent human rights institutions in 89 countries; a 70% success rate for democratization episodes51
    Cascade
    GOV → HLT, FOO, WAT, BIO
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS14-FIN-002

    Debt service crowding out public services

    Driver
    high borrowing costs and falling aid96
    Exposure
    3.7 billion people in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education9
    Vulnerability
    low revenue base and limited fiscal space
    Capacity
    debt management reform; budget reliability improving, with expenditure deviation at 10.2% in 20246
    Cascade
    FIN → GOV → HLT, FOO, ENE
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS14-GOV-003

    Gap between adopted rules and applied rules

    Driver
    new instruments that need ratification steps before they operate1819
    Exposure
    treaties and laws without funded implementation25
    Vulnerability
    38% mute refusals in an information request test5
    Capacity
    oversight bodies reported by 101 of 123 respondents5
    Cascade
    GOV → all systems
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  4. ReportedEQL 3RSK-GS14-TRD-004

    Weakened dispute settlement and multilateral financing

    Driver
    the Appellate Body vacancy since 2020 and a 27% fall in core contributions to the UN system246
    Exposure
    trade partners and UN-funded programmes
    Vulnerability
    dependence on a few large contributors
    Capacity
    the Pact commits States to work towards the necessary reform of the WTO16
    Cascade
    TRD → FOO, ENE
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for governance at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSanti-corruption convention and national laws widespread; implementation uneven314
Monitoring and observationADEQUATEseveral independent indices and SDG 16 custodian series15
Early warningEXISTSwatchlists of autocratizing countries and early warning for hazards115
Preparedness and planningEXISTS141 countries with national disaster risk reduction strategies6
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDfiscal buffers and emergency funds not consolidated here
ResponseEXISTSemergency determination under amended health regulations; humanitarian system under funding stress206
Continuity of critical servicesEXISTSbudget execution deviation of 10.2% in 2024 as a proxy6
RecoveryLISTEDinstitutional recovery after conflict not consolidated; 4.4 million refugees returned in 2025, many under adverse conditions7
AdaptationEXISTSa 70% success rate for autocracies that start a democratization episode1
Social protectionEXISTSmore than half of the world’s population covered by at least one benefit6
Finance and insuranceEXISTSpublic finance under strain: net interest near USD 1 trillion9
Institutional coordinationDEMONSTRATEDfour major instruments adopted in 2024 and 202516171819
Technical infrastructureEXISTSthe share of people lagging in digital government fell from 45.0% to 22.4% between 2022 and 202410
WorkforceLISTEDwomen’s representation ratio in public service of 0.80; skills gaps not consolidated5
Research capacityADEQUATEopen datasets and large expert networks; measurement limits documented126
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Nord, M., Altman, D., Fernandes, T., Good God, A. and Lindberg, S.I., Democracy Report 2026: Unraveling The Democratic Era? (March 2026; PDF read, based on the V-Dem dataset v16). V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2Freedom House (ed.), Freedom in the World 2026: The Growing Shadow of Autocracy, press release of 19 March 2026 (the press release was read, not the report). Freedom House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3International IDEA (ed.), The Global State of Democracy 2025: Democracy on the Move (publication summary page read, not the PDF). International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Stockholm. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 16 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026; PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 9UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page with key statistics read; the full report was not opened). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 6United Nations Secretary-General, Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, A/81/93-E/2026/73, 8 June 2026 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/243, United Nations Convention against Cybercrime, 24 December 2024 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 19World Health Assembly, resolution WHA78.1, WHO Pandemic Agreement, 20 May 2025 (PDF read, including the annexed agreement). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 25Global Data Barometer (ed.), Global Data Barometer, second edition, key findings (page read; no figure used). Global Data Barometer, international. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 24World Trade Organization (ed.), Dispute settlement: Appellate Body (page read; the term of the last sitting member expired on 30 November 2020; notified appeals listed to 21 November 2025). WTO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 16United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/1, The Pact for the Future, 22 September 2024 (PDF read; 56 actions). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 31United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (ed.), United Nations Convention against Corruption (text of 2003 read as published by UNODC, Vienna, 2004). United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 2003. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 4Transparency International (ed.), Corruption Perceptions Index 2025 (results page read). Transparency International, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 15WMO (ed.), Early Warnings for All initiative (programme page read; co-led with UNDRR). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 20World Health Assembly, International Health Regulations (2005) as amended, document A77/A/CONF./14, 1 June 2024 (PDF read). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 7UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2025 (PDF read as a mirrored copy of the agency document; data as of 1 May 2026). UN Refugee Agency, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 17United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/325, Terms of reference and modalities for the establishment and functioning of the Independent International Scientific Panel on Artificial Intelligence and the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance, 26 August 2025 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 10UN DESA Division for Public Institutions and Digital Government (ed.), United Nations E-Government Survey 2024 (survey page read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 26Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A. and Mastruzzi, M., The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues, Policy Research Working Paper 5430 (PDF read). World Bank, Washington, September 2010. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Nexus Global Policy, Institutions and Governance Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Policy, Institutions and Governance. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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