Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the governance baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables14 notesNR-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Governance is the layer that sets the rules for every other system
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Governance
    3. 2.3 Finance
    4. 2.4 Health
    5. 2.5 Trade
    6. 2.6 Energy
    7. 2.7 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Debt-service squeeze under aid cuts, thinner oversight and a health or food shock
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005

In 2025 developing countries paid USD 995 billion in net interest on public debt, and 51 of them spent more on interest than on either education or health.

Figure 2.1Net interest and potential saving, developing countries, 2025 (USD billion)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Net interest on public debt995
Annual saving at developed-country borrowing costs500

Source: UNCTAD, A World of Debt 2026, key statistics9.

Implication

The interest bill is close to USD 1 trillion and is 8.1% of government revenue at the median. The issuer reports that 3.7 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest than on either education or health, 1.2 billion more than in 2010. Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean spend more per person on interest than on health or education9.

What would move it

The next UNCTAD debt report, the final aid data for 2025 and the pace of borrowing-cost changes would each move this finding.

2.2Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-001

    V-Dem counts 92 autocracies and 87 democracies at the end of 2025, and 74% of the world’s population lives in autocracies against 7% in liberal democracies.1

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-002

    Three index families report net decline in 2025 on different scales: V-Dem lists 44 autocratizing countries, Freedom House records 54 deteriorating and 35 improving, and International IDEA finds more than half of the countries it assesses declined in at least one aspect over five years.123

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-003

    141 UN Member States have statutory guarantees of access to information in 2026, up from 105 in 2015, yet an identical-request test in 76 countries found 38% of requests met no substantive reply and 42% full disclosure.56

  4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-004

    Women held 27.2% of seats in national parliaments in 2025 and 19.9% of Speaker posts, and members aged 40 and under held 19% of seats, unchanged since 2023.125

  5. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-007

    Corruption is read two ways: the 2025 perception index reports a global average of 42, a new low, while survey data from 139 countries show a median 17% of people paid or were asked for a bribe.465

  6. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-009

    The Pandemic Agreement enters into force on the thirtieth day after the sixtieth ratification and opens for signature only after its pathogen access annex is adopted; the Convention against Cybercrime needs forty ratifications.1918

2.3Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005

    Developing countries paid USD 995 billion in net interest on public debt in 2025, a median 8.1% of government revenue, and 51 of them spent more on interest than on either education or health.9

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006

    Official development assistance from DAC members fell to USD 174.3 billion in 2025, down 23.1% and the largest annual fall on record, after a 6.1% fall in 2024.634

2.4Health

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

    A study of 177 countries found that higher trust in government and lower corruption were associated with lower COVID-19 infection rates, while pandemic preparedness indices were not meaningfully associated with infection or fatality rates.28

2.5Trade

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-010

    The WTO Appellate Body has been unable to review appeals since the term of its last sitting member expired on 30 November 2020, and appeals continue to be notified.24

2.6Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-011

    Fossil fuel subsidies were USD 921 billion in 2024, down 10.2% from 2023 and from a peak of USD 1.66 trillion in 2022, but more than double the 2020 low of USD 402 billion.622

2.7Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a debt-service squeeze that coincides with aid cuts, thinner oversight and a health or food shock. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 9UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page with key statistics read; the full report was not opened). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 1Nord, M., Altman, D., Fernandes, T., Good God, A. and Lindberg, S.I., Democracy Report 2026: Unraveling The Democratic Era? (March 2026; PDF read, based on the V-Dem dataset v16). V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2Freedom House (ed.), Freedom in the World 2026: The Growing Shadow of Autocracy, press release of 19 March 2026 (the press release was read, not the report). Freedom House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 3International IDEA (ed.), The Global State of Democracy 2025: Democracy on the Move (publication summary page read, not the PDF). International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Stockholm. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 16 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026; PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 6United Nations Secretary-General, Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, A/81/93-E/2026/73, 8 June 2026 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SG.GEN.PARL.ZS, proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments, world aggregate (API extract, series last updated 2026-10-08; underlying data from the Inter-Parliamentary Union). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 4Transparency International (ed.), Corruption Perceptions Index 2025 (results page read). Transparency International, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 19World Health Assembly, resolution WHA78.1, WHO Pandemic Agreement, 20 May 2025 (PDF read, including the annexed agreement). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/243, United Nations Convention against Cybercrime, 24 December 2024 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Preliminary Official Development Assistance Levels in 2025 (April 2026); the site refused automated access, and the 2025 total and fall are taken from the UN Secretary-General report [6], which was opened. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 28COVID-19 National Preparedness Collaborators, Pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: an exploratory analysis of infection and fatality rates, and contextual factors associated with preparedness in 177 countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Sept 30, 2021, The Lancet 399(10334), 1489 to 1512, 2022 (open-access record and abstract read through Europe PMC; the full text was not read). Elsevier. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 24World Trade Organization (ed.), Dispute settlement: Appellate Body (page read; the term of the last sitting member expired on 30 November 2020; notified appeals listed to 21 November 2025). WTO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 22UNFCCC, decision 1/CMA.5, Outcome of the first global stocktake, FCCC/PA/CMA/2023/16/Add.1 (advance version of 15 March 2024; PDF read). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Nexus Global Policy, Institutions and Governance Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Policy, Institutions and Governance. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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