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Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables14 notesNR-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Governance is the layer that sets the rules for every other system
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Debt-service squeeze under aid cuts, thinner oversight and a health or food shock
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

GOV · Democracy

People living in autocracies

74%

92 autocracies and 87 democracies.

Reported2025V-Dem1

GOV · Freedoms

People living in countries rated Free

21%

46% two decades earlier.

Reported2025Freedom House2

FIN · Public finance

Net interest on public debt, developing countries

995USD billion

51 countries spend more on interest than on health or education.

Reported2025UNCTAD9

FIN · Aid

Official development assistance

174.3USD billion

down 23.1%, the largest annual fall on record.

Reported2025UN SDG report6

GOV · Information

States with statutory access to information guarantees

141states

up from 105 in 2015.

Reported2026UN SDG report6

ENE · Energy

Fossil fuel subsidies

921USD billion

down 10.2%; more than double the 2020 low.

Reported2024UN SDG report6

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through governance, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries governance risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATAllocation rules and aid shape service delivery; implementation of integrated water resources management has improved since 2017 but too slowly. Water-sector aid was USD 9.6 billion in 2024.GOV → WATReported EQL 3
ENEFossil fuel subsidies were USD 921 billion in 2024; the stocktake decision calls for phasing out inefficient subsidies.GOV → ENEReported EQL 4
FOOHunger affected 645 million people in 2025 and 2.7 billion could not afford a healthy diet; appeal review in trade disputes has been unavailable since 2020.GOV → FOOReported EQL 4
HLTHealth regulations were amended in 2024 and a Pandemic Agreement adopted in 2025; trust and low corruption were associated with lower infection rates.GOV → HLTReported EQL 3
BIOThe global biodiversity framework sets a target to reduce harmful incentives by USD 500 billion a year by 2030; 157 countries have national integration targets.GOV → BIOReported EQL 4
CLIThe Paris Agreement has 194 Parties among the 198 Parties to the Convention; the stocktake set energy goals for 2030.GOV → CLIReported EQL 4
INFInstitutional infrastructure includes courts, registries and oversight bodies; 101 of 123 survey respondents report a dedicated oversight body for access to information.GOV ↔ INFReported EQL 3
FINNet interest of USD 995 billion for developing countries and a 23.1% fall in aid in 2025 strain the means of delivery.FIN → GOVReported EQL 4
DATOpen data frameworks exist in many countries but implementation lags; lobbying registers and beneficial ownership data are rarely public.DAT → GOVReported EQL 3
AICA UN scientific panel of 40 members and an annual dialogue on AI governance were established in 2025; national rules are not consolidated here.AIC ↔ GOVReported EQL 4
MINNo consolidated global series on mineral governance was bound in this edition.MIN ↔ GOVExpert input EQL 1
TRDThe WTO Appellate Body has been unable to review appeals since 2020; trade rules otherwise continue to operate.GOV ↔ TRDReported EQL 5

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on governance, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemgovernance sets the rules and the means for every other system69debt and aid squeezePARTIAL
GS-01Waterallocation rules and aid; USD 9.6 billion disbursed in 20246enforcement under budget stressTHIN
GS-02Energyfossil fuel subsidies of USD 921 billion6subsidy reformPARTIAL
GS-03Food645 million faced hunger in 202514price shocks and trade rulesPARTIAL
GS-04Healthamended health regulations and the Pandemic Agreement1920emergency determinationGOOD
GS-05FinanceUSD 995 billion of net interest9borrowing costsPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentaid fell 23.1% in 20256aid cutsGOOD
GS-07ClimateParis Agreement among 194 Parties23implementation of national plansPARTIAL
GS-08Disaster141 countries with national strategies630budget execution in emergenciesPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructureno consolidated governance series boundregulator capacityTHIN
GS-10Citieslocal government capacity not boundlocal financeTHIN
GS-11Biodiversity157 countries with national targets621harmful incentivesPARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationearly warning initiative led by WMO and UNDRR15continuity of servicesTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitalConvention against Cybercrime adopted18ratification and capacityPARTIAL
GS-14Policyregimes, rights, finance and instruments15implementation gapGOOD
GS-15ScienceUN scientific panel on AI of 40 members17independence and fundingPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Nord, M., Altman, D., Fernandes, T., Good God, A. and Lindberg, S.I., Democracy Report 2026: Unraveling The Democratic Era? (March 2026; PDF read, based on the V-Dem dataset v16). V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2Freedom House (ed.), Freedom in the World 2026: The Growing Shadow of Autocracy, press release of 19 March 2026 (the press release was read, not the report). Freedom House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 9UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page with key statistics read; the full report was not opened). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 6United Nations Secretary-General, Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, A/81/93-E/2026/73, 8 June 2026 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 14FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026: Understanding and addressing the high cost of a healthy diet (landing page read; the full report was not opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 19World Health Assembly, resolution WHA78.1, WHO Pandemic Agreement, 20 May 2025 (PDF read, including the annexed agreement). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 20World Health Assembly, International Health Regulations (2005) as amended, document A77/A/CONF./14, 1 June 2024 (PDF read). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 23UNFCCC (ed.), The Paris Agreement, status of ratification (page read: 194 Parties of the 198 Parties to the Convention). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 30United Nations General Assembly, resolution 69/283, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 (PDF read; seven global targets). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 21Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, decision 15/4, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, December 2022 (PDF read). Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 15WMO (ed.), Early Warnings for All initiative (programme page read; co-led with UNDRR). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/243, United Nations Convention against Cybercrime, 24 December 2024 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 16 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026; PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 17United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/325, Terms of reference and modalities for the establishment and functioning of the Independent International Scientific Panel on Artificial Intelligence and the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance, 26 August 2025 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Nexus Global Policy, Institutions and Governance Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Policy, Institutions and Governance. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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