Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Governance is the layer that sets the rules for every other system
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Debt-service squeeze under aid cuts, thinner oversight and a health or food shock
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Net interest of developing countries against total DAC aid, 2025 (scale comparison, different scopes) | 995 ÷ 174.3 | ≈5.7 times |
| (2) | Fossil fuel subsidies in 2024 against the 2020 low | 921 ÷ 402 | ≈2.3 times |
| (3) | Autocracies as a share of classified regimes, end 2025 (unweighted by population) | 92 ÷ (92 + 87) | ≈51% |
| (4) | Pre-trial detainees as a share of people in detention, 2024 | 3.6 ÷ 11.6 | ≈31% |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, Governance Sector Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-GS14-POLICY · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent the global rule layer, its institutions and its couplings to water, energy, food, health and nature
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
4strong
documented within one season
10moderate
documented, buffered
6weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- DC-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 48 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- the 2027 governance annual cut
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 global annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited global publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Governance Sector Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regime classification | 2025 | Mar 2026 | annual | next Democracy Report |
| Freedom ratings | 2025 | Mar 2026 | annual | next Freedom in the World |
| Democratic performance indices | 2024 to 2025 | Sep 2025 | annual | next Global State of Democracy |
| Corruption perception scores | 2025 | 2026 | annual | next index |
| SDG 16 indicator storylines | 2024 to 2025 | inputs to Apr 2026 | annual | next SDG report |
| Forced displacement | 2025 | Jun 2026 | annual | mid-year update |
| Public debt and interest | 2025 | 2026 | annual | next debt report |
| Official development assistance | 2025 | cited through the UN SDG report of Jun 2026 | annual | next SDG report |
| Digital government | 2024 | 2024 | biennial | next E-Government Survey |
| Instrument status | 2024 to 2025 | texts read Nov 2026 | event-driven | status at close in gaps |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Regimes and freedoms | GOOD | basis differences between indices |
| Information and participation | GOOD | implementation outcomes by country |
| Public finance | PARTIAL | debt ratios for all governments |
| Aid | PARTIAL | final 2025 data by donor and sector |
| Integrity | PARTIAL | grand corruption is not captured by surveys |
| Instruments | PARTIAL | status after evidence close |
| Local government | THIN | capacity and finance by country |
| Trust | THIN | a common global measure |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Trust in national government on a common global basis | OECD Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions survey32; household surveys | the OECD site refused automated access and the survey was not opened; coverage is limited to OECD members; no figure used |
| Women’s share of parliament at 1 January 2026 as published by the IPU report | IPU Women in Parliament 202533 | the IPU site refused automated access; the World Bank series for 202512 is used instead |
| Ratification status of the Pandemic Agreement and adoption of its pathogen access annex at evidence close | World Health Organization and the treaty depositary19 | status after the text of May 2025 was not retrieved |
| Ratification status of the Convention against Cybercrime | UN Treaty Collection18 | status page not retrieved |
| Public debt as a share of GDP for all governments | IMF Fiscal Monitor36 | the IMF site refused automated access; the report was not opened |
| National AI governance instruments in force, by country | Council of Europe35; EUR-Lex39; national gazettes | Council of Europe and EUR-Lex pages refused automated access; no consolidated global series found |
| Open government commitments and membership | Open Government Partnership37 | site refused automated access |
| Budget transparency and public participation scores | International Budget Partnership Open Budget Survey | not retrieved; no figure used |
| UN regular budget and liquidity position for 2026 | UN Secretariat financial reports | not retrieved |
| Elections held in 2026 and their quality, on one basis | International IDEA; national electoral bodies | not consolidated; election quality is coded differently by each index |
| Local government capacity and finance by country | national statistics offices; local government associations | no consolidated global series found at evidence close |
| Disaster risk governance indicators from the 2025 Global Assessment Report | UNDRR Global Assessment Report 202538 | the UNDRR site refused automated access; the report was not opened |
| Use of governance standards by organisations | ISO Survey; standards bodies40414243 | ISO pages refused automated access; no usage counts retrieved |
| Capability rungs beyond international instruments | ministries, courts, audit institutions | not reviewed |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Compiled by UN DESA from custodian storylines as of 30 April 2026. Annual. Role: binds GOV-003, GOV-004 and the justice and integrity rows. Figures can differ slightly from the main report text.
EVD-GS14-001
SDG Extended Report 2026, Goal 165
Issued by the V-Dem Institute (March 2026) from the v16 dataset of 202 countries and territories and over 4,200 scholars and country experts. Annual. Role: binds GOV-001 and the regime tiles.
EVD-GS14-002
Democracy Report 20261
| Dimension | EVD-GS14-001 | EVD-GS14-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | indicator storylines from custodian agencies; coverage varies by indicator | 202 countries and territories coded from 1789 to 2025 |
| Timeliness | about 4 months after the observation year for most storylines | about 3 months after the year |
| Revision | storylines updated up to the report date | annual update of the dataset |
| Method transparency | indicator metadata published by custodians | methodology and codebook published |
| External validation | custodian review | expert coders; measurement error reported by the issuer |
Evidence cards to follow in 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | governance, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| ATI | access to information |
| CBD | Convention on Biological Diversity |
| DAC | Development Assistance Committee of the OECD |
| GBF | Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework |
| IHR | International Health Regulations |
| NHRI | national human rights institution |
| ODA | official development assistance |
| PABS | pathogen access and benefit-sharing |
| SDG 16 | Sustainable Development Goal 16: peace, justice and strong institutions |
| UNCAC | United Nations Convention against Corruption |
| UNFCCC | United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |
| V-Dem | Varieties of Democracy |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the global indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-GS14-DBT-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Institution notes | cards for the major shared institutions and instruments | WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: access to information guarantees
- Construct
- number of countries that adopt and implement constitutional, statutory or policy guarantees for public access to information
- Unit
- number of countries
- Method
- annual survey of Member States and territories run by the custodian agency, with a scored legal framework
- Source
- SDG Extended Report 2026, indicator 16.10.25
- Uncertainty
- respondent numbers grew from 43 in 2019 to 123 in 2025; scores are self-reported
- Known limits
- legal guarantees do not measure application; a separate request test found 38% mute refusals
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), OECD Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions, 2024 results; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Inter-Parliamentary Union (ed.), Women in Parliament 2025 (published March 2026); the site refused automated access, and the figures used come from the World Bank series [12] and the UN extended report [5]. IPU, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SG.GEN.PARL.ZS, proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments, world aggregate (API extract, series last updated 2026-10-08; underlying data from the Inter-Parliamentary Union). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19World Health Assembly, resolution WHA78.1, WHO Pandemic Agreement, 20 May 2025 (PDF read, including the annexed agreement). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/243, United Nations Convention against Cybercrime, 24 December 2024 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, 2026 editions; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Council of Europe (ed.), Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law (CETS 225, 2024); the page refused automated access and no figure is used. Council of Europe, Strasbourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 12 July 2024; the Official Journal page refused automated access, and the publication date was read on a third-party site that links to it. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Open Government Partnership (ed.), membership and action plan data; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. OGP, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37000:2021, Governance of organisations: Guidance. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the catalogue page refused automated access. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37001:2016, Anti-bribery management systems: Requirements with guidance for use. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the catalogue page refused automated access. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37301:2021, Compliance management systems: Requirements with guidance for use. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO/IEC 42001:2023, Information technology: Artificial intelligence: Management system. ISO and IEC, Geneva; the catalogue page refused automated access. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 16 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026; PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1Nord, M., Altman, D., Fernandes, T., Good God, A. and Lindberg, S.I., Democracy Report 2026: Unraveling The Democratic Era? (March 2026; PDF read, based on the V-Dem dataset v16). V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page with key statistics read; the full report was not opened). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back