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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

8 min read0 figures5 tables18 notesNR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Science is where the frontier is made
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Loss of trust in the research record during a fast-moving emergency
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Science and health
    2. 8.2 Science and nature
    3. 8.3 Science, compute and the digital layer
    4. 8.4 Science, finance and talent
    5. 8.5 Integrity, openness and governance
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Science and health

Health depends on discovery: structures, trials, treatments and the rules that govern risky research. The 2023 genome-editing authorisation and the open structure archives show the link; the WHO framework shows the governance side.

214million

predicted protein structures in the AlphaFold database, 202412

8 Dec2023

first FDA authorisation of a novel genome-editing treatment17

174pages

WHO framework on dual-use life science research, 202218

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Structure predictiona diffusion-based model predicts complexes of proteins, nucleic acids, ligands and ions11Reported
Predicted structuresover 214 million sequences covered by the database12Reported
Genome editingfirst cell-based therapies for sickle cell disease, one using genome editing17Reported
Dual-use governancevalues, principles and tools for Member States and research institutions18Reported

Couplings

  • BIO → HLT sequences and structures
  • DAT → HLT open archives
  • GOV → HLT dual-use governance

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • dual-use governance in practice
  • time from discovery to access in low-income regions

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-12 Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • GS-14 Policy, Institutions and Governance
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies

8.2Science and nature

Nature is measured through shared archives of records and structures. Their size is a strength, and their coverage and bias are the open questions.

3.89billion

GBIF occurrence records at access23

306million

GBIF records dated 202523

262,922entries

Protein Data Bank holdings at access22

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Species recordsoccurrence records published through one open network23Reported
Structure archiveexperimental structures held in one open archive22Reported
Predicted structuresmodel predictions integrated with primary databases12Reported
Coverage and biasrecord density by place and taxon not consolidated here23Expert input

Couplings

  • DAT → BIO open records
  • AIC → BIO structure models
  • BIO → DAT new sequences and records

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • spatial and taxonomic bias of records
  • reuse of archives in decisions

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-12 Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • GS-14 Policy, Institutions and Governance
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies

8.3Science, compute and the digital layer

The frontier is increasingly computational. Exascale machines, quantum memories and AI systems change who can do what, and how fast the record grows.

5systems

exascale on the TOP500 list, June 20264

6months

doubling time of training compute since the early 2010s13

2.14factor

logical error suppression per step in code distance10

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Exascale systemsLineShine 2.198 Eflop/s; El Capitan 1.809; Frontier 1.353; Aurora 1.012; JUPITER Booster 1.0004Reported
Training computedoubling about every six months in the deep learning era, to 202213Reported
Quantum memorya 101-qubit distance-7 code, 0.143% error per cycle, 2.4 times beyond break-even10Reported
AI in researchagents reach 38.8% against 83.5% for PhD experts on a research-task benchmark9Reported

Couplings

  • INF → AIC compute
  • AIC → DAT research output
  • INF → DAT quantum and exascale methods

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • private compute not on the list
  • confirmed AI discoveries

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-12 Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • GS-14 Policy, Institutions and Governance
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies

8.4Science, finance and talent

Money and people decide where the frontier is. Spending and researcher density are both concentrated, and mobility is changing who works where.

3.48USD trillion

global R&D expenditure, 20241

354USD billion

worldwide venture investment, 20241

89%

fall since 2017 in AI researchers moving to the United States8

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Public and business R&DChina 30%, United States 29%, EU-27 18% of global spending1Reported
Venture investmentUSD 354 billion in 2024, about half the 2021 peak of USD 694 billion1Reported
Public programmesHorizon Europe indicative funding of EUR 93.5 billion for 2021 to 202724Reported
Talent mobilitytemporary visa holders earned 38% of US S&E doctorates in 20241Reported

Couplings

  • FIN → DAT funding and capacity
  • TRD → DAT mobility
  • FIN → AIC private AI investment

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • funding changes in 2025 and 2026
  • mobility outside the United States

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-12 Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • GS-14 Policy, Institutions and Governance
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies

8.5Integrity, openness and governance

The record is shared infrastructure. Retractions, paper mills and low replication strain it, and open science and AI ethics recommendations set the rules around it.

15,582notices

retraction notices registered with Crossref, 20236

36%

of 100 psychology replications significant, against 97% of originals16

193countries

Member States that adopted the UNESCO open science recommendation25

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Retraction notices1,678 in 2015; 15,582 in 2023; 7,632 in 20256Reported
Paper millscase studies show brokers and mills enabling fraud at scale14Reported
Replicationreplication effects half the size of the originals in 100 psychology studies16Reported
Open science and AI ethicstwo UNESCO recommendations adopted in 20212526Reported

Couplings

  • AIC → DAT → GOV integrity
  • GOV → DAT recommendations
  • DAT → HLT reliance on the record

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • share of the record affected
  • open-access share

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-12 Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence
  • GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
  • GS-14 Policy, Institutions and Governance
  • XT-02 Quantum Technologies

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 12Varadi, M. et al., AlphaFold Protein Structure Database in 2024: providing structure coverage for over 214 million protein sequences, Nucleic Acids Research 52 (database issue), 368 to 375, 2024 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Oxford University Press, Oxford. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 17US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), FDA Approves First Gene Therapies to Treat Patients with Sickle Cell Disease, press announcement of 8 December 2023. FDA, Silver Spring. Page read. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 18WHO (ed.), Global guidance framework for the responsible use of the life sciences: mitigating biorisks and governing dual-use research, 174 pages, 2022. World Health Organization, Geneva. Publication page and overview read; the full text was not opened. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 11Abramson, J. et al., Accurate structure prediction of biomolecular interactions with AlphaFold 3, Nature 630, 493 to 500, 2024 (abstract and open full text read through Europe PMC). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 23GBIF (ed.), GBIF API, occurrence count and counts by year (3,890,294,224 records on the access date; 305,893,347 dated 2025). Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Copenhagen. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 22RCSB Protein Data Bank (ed.), Current holdings, list of entry identifiers (262,922 entries counted by the editors on the access date). Research Collaboratory for Structural Bioinformatics. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 4TOP500 project (ed.), TOP500 list, 67th edition, June 2026 (release text read in full for the leading systems). TOP500, Prometeus GmbH. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 13Sevilla, J. et al., Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning, arXiv 2202.05924, 2022 (abstract page read). Cornell University, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 10Google Quantum AI and collaborators, Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold, arXiv 2408.13687 (full text opened) and Nature 638, 920 to 926, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 9Stanford HAI (ed.), The 2026 AI Index Report, Chapter 5 Science, chapter page with its highlights. Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI, Stanford. Page read; the chapter PDF was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 1NSB (ed.), Science and Engineering Indicators 2026: The State of U.S. Science and Engineering (NSB-SEP-2026-1), May 2026, National Science Board and National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics, US National Science Foundation, Alexandria. Full PDF opened; global R&D, publications, collaboration, venture investment, semiconductor and doctoral-degree figures read from the text. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 8Stanford HAI (ed.), The 2026 AI Index Report, overview page with the ten top takeaways. Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI, Stanford. Page read; the report PDF was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 24European Commission (ed.), Horizon Europe, programme page (indicative funding of EUR 93.5 billion for 2021 to 2027 after the mid-term review). European Commission, Brussels. Page read. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 6Crossref (ed.), Crossref REST API, work counts by type and publication year and counts of retraction notices (update-type filter), queried live on the access date. Crossref, Oxford. Counts are subject to later registration. Observation year 2025 (series 2015 to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 16Open Science Collaboration, Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science, Science 349(6251), aac4716, 2015 (abstract read through Europe PMC; full text not opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 25UNESCO (ed.), UNESCO Recommendation on Open Science, 2021, programme page (193 Member States). UNESCO, Paris. Page read; the Recommendation text itself returned an access error. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 14Richardson, R.A.K. et al., The entities enabling scientific fraud at scale are large, resilient, and growing rapidly, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 122(32), 2025 (abstract and open full text record read through Europe PMC). National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 26UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence, November 2021, programme page (193 Member States). UNESCO, Paris. Page read; the text itself was not opened. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Nexus Global Science and Engineering Frontier Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Science and Engineering Frontier. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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