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Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables11 notesNR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Science is where the frontier is made
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Loss of trust in the research record during a fast-moving emergency
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

FIN · Finance

Global R&D expenditure

3.48USD trillion

comparable basis; China 30%, United States 29%.

Reported2024NSB1

DAT · Data

Researchers per million inhabitants (FTE)

1,486per million

Sub-Saharan Africa 88; Northern America 5,006.

Reported2023UNESCO2

TRD · Trade

Articles with international co-authors

22%

19% in 2012.

Reported2024NSB1

INF · Infrastructure

Exascale systems on the TOP500 list

5systems

LineShine measured at 2.198 Eflop/s.

Reported2026TOP5004

GOV · Governance

Retraction notices registered with Crossref

7,632notices

15,582 in 2023; 2025 count may still rise.

Reported2025Crossref6

SYS · Cross-system

Women among researchers (headcount)

31.4%

Eastern Asia 23.9%; Northern Africa 45.0%.

Reported2023UNESCO2

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through science and engineering, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries science and engineering risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATMonitoring networks and desalination research depend on instruments and open data; no consolidated global series of research effort is bound here.DAT → WATExpert input EQL 2
ENEExascale machines draw large power; El Capitan reaches 60.94 gigaflops per watt. Research-facility power use is not consolidated here.INF ↔ ENEReported EQL 3
FOOCrop genetics, food safety and farm data rest on the same discovery layer; no consolidated series is bound here.DAT → FOOExpert input EQL 2
HLTGenome-editing treatment authorised in 2023; structure prediction supports drug discovery; WHO framework on dual-use research.DAT → HLTReported EQL 4
BIOAlphaFold database over 214 million structures; GBIF 3.89 billion occurrence records; open archives anchor biology.DAT → BIOReported EQL 4
CLIAI weather models reached operational deployment in 2025; earth-science datasets come from government and academic sources.AIC → CLIReported EQL 3
INFFive exascale systems; a below-threshold surface-code memory; a 91 km collider design at CHF 15 billion over about 12 years.the core systemReported EQL 5
FINUSD 3.48 trillion of R&D in 2024; venture investment USD 354 billion; Horizon Europe EUR 93.5 billion for 2021 to 2027.FIN → DATReported EQL 4
DATarXiv 284,486 submissions in 2025; RCSB 262,922 entries; GBIF 3.89 billion records; retraction notices registered with Crossref.the evidence layerReported EQL 5
AICAI is 5.8% to 8.8% of research output; training compute doubling about every six months; industry builds most notable models.AIC → DATReported EQL 4
MINChina led semiconductor production with 30% of value added in 2024; one Taiwanese foundry fabricates almost every leading AI chip.MIN → AICReported EQL 4
TRDArticles with international co-authors rose to 22%; temporary visa holders earned 38% of US S&E doctorates; AI researcher moves to the US fell 89% since 2017.TRD ↔ DATReported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on science and engineering, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemdiscovery feeds every other system19trust shock in the recordPARTIAL
GS-01Watermonitoring and desalination research rest on open datacontinuity of instrumentsTHIN
GS-02Energyexascale machines and facilities draw large power4facility power and costTHIN
GS-03Foodcrop genetics and food-safety sciencegene-editing governanceTHIN
GS-04Healthgenome-editing treatment and structure prediction1711dual-use researchGOOD
GS-05FinanceUSD 3.48 trillion of R&D spending1funding cyclesGOOD
GS-06Development88 researchers per million in Sub-Saharan Africa2capacity gapGOOD
GS-07ClimateAI weather models in operation9model validationPARTIAL
GS-08Disasterforecasting and hazard science depend on data and compute9data continuity in a crisisTHIN
GS-09Infrastructurecollider design of 91 km19; exascale systems4long-lead facilitiesPARTIAL
GS-10Citiesurban science relies on open data and computedata accessTHIN
GS-11BiodiversityGBIF holds 3.89 billion records23coverage and bias of recordsPARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationAI models for weather and satellites9continuity of missionsPARTIAL
GS-13Cyber and digitalresearch data and compute are targets and toolsresearch securityTHIN
GS-14PolicyUNESCO recommendations and a WHO framework2518implementation in practicePARTIAL
GS-15Sciencea large but uneven research system12integrity and capacity dataPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1NSB (ed.), Science and Engineering Indicators 2026: The State of U.S. Science and Engineering (NSB-SEP-2026-1), May 2026, National Science Board and National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics, US National Science Foundation, Alexandria. Full PDF opened; global R&D, publications, collaboration, venture investment, semiconductor and doctoral-degree figures read from the text. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2UNESCO Institute for Statistics (ed.), UIS data API, data version 20260507 (February 2026 data release): indicators EXPGDP.TOT, RESDEN.INHAB.TFTE and FRESP.THC, world and regional aggregates. UNESCO, Montreal. Data pulled and read. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 4TOP500 project (ed.), TOP500 list, 67th edition, June 2026 (release text read in full for the leading systems). TOP500, Prometeus GmbH. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 6Crossref (ed.), Crossref REST API, work counts by type and publication year and counts of retraction notices (update-type filter), queried live on the access date. Crossref, Oxford. Counts are subject to later registration. Observation year 2025 (series 2015 to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 9Stanford HAI (ed.), The 2026 AI Index Report, Chapter 5 Science, chapter page with its highlights. Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI, Stanford. Page read; the chapter PDF was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 17US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), FDA Approves First Gene Therapies to Treat Patients with Sickle Cell Disease, press announcement of 8 December 2023. FDA, Silver Spring. Page read. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 11Abramson, J. et al., Accurate structure prediction of biomolecular interactions with AlphaFold 3, Nature 630, 493 to 500, 2024 (abstract and open full text read through Europe PMC). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 19CERN (ed.), Future Circular Collider, feasibility study page (results published in spring 2025: 91 km ring, estimated cost CHF 15 billion). CERN, Geneva. Page read. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 23GBIF (ed.), GBIF API, occurrence count and counts by year (3,890,294,224 records on the access date; 305,893,347 dated 2025). Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Copenhagen. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 25UNESCO (ed.), UNESCO Recommendation on Open Science, 2021, programme page (193 Member States). UNESCO, Paris. Page read; the Recommendation text itself returned an access error. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 18WHO (ed.), Global guidance framework for the responsible use of the life sciences: mitigating biorisks and governing dual-use research, 174 pages, 2022. World Health Organization, Geneva. Publication page and overview read; the full text was not opened. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Nexus Global Science and Engineering Frontier Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Science and Engineering Frontier. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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