Loss of trust in the research record during a fast-moving emergency
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Science is where the frontier is made
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Loss of trust in the research record during a fast-moving emergency
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
5.1Assumptions
Scenario SCN-GS15-INT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.
- Baseline
- the 2026 reference state in this edition
- Drivers
- a fast-moving health or technology emergency in which many preprints appear, some produced at scale or with AI assistance, and some are retracted within weeks
- Analogues
- retraction waves of 20236; paper-mill case studies14
- Interventions
- none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
- Run state
- narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027
5.2The cascade, step by step
- 1
DAT → GOV
preprints and papers multiply faster than checks
2023 to 2025
- 2
AIC → DAT
AI-assisted text and mass production add low-quality items
2025
- 3
DAT → HLT
guidance cites results that are later retracted or not replicated
2015 to 2023
- 4
GOV → FIN
funders and markets react to reversals
to be tested
- 5
DAT → TRD
cross-border co-authors and platforms propagate corrections unevenly
to be tested
- 6
GOV → DAT
public trust in the record falls and reuse slows
to be tested
5.3The scenario as a table of steps
How the shock in scenario SCN-GS15-INT-01 would travel through Global Science and Engineering Frontier’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 DAT to governance | Preprints and papers multiply faster than checks. Analogue or source: 2023 to 2025. | Edition GS-15, scenario SCN-GS15-INT-01, step 1 |
| 02 AI compute to dat | AI-assisted text and mass production add low-quality items. Analogue or source: 2025. | Edition GS-15, scenario SCN-GS15-INT-01, step 2 |
| 03 DAT to health | Guidance cites results that are later retracted or not replicated. Analogue or source: 2015 to 2023. | Edition GS-15, scenario SCN-GS15-INT-01, step 3 |
| 04 Governance to finance | Funders and markets react to reversals. Analogue or source: to be tested. | Edition GS-15, scenario SCN-GS15-INT-01, step 4 |
| 05 DAT to trade | Cross-border co-authors and platforms propagate corrections unevenly. Analogue or source: to be tested. | Edition GS-15, scenario SCN-GS15-INT-01, step 5 |
| 06 Governance to dat | Public trust in the record falls and reuse slows. Analogue or source: to be tested. | Edition GS-15, scenario SCN-GS15-INT-01, step 6 |
A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Science and Engineering Frontier 2026, scenario SCN-GS15-INT-01 (2026); Global Science and Engineering Frontier 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 6Crossref (ed.), Crossref REST API, work counts by type and publication year and counts of retraction notices (update-type filter), queried live on the access date. Crossref, Oxford. Counts are subject to later registration. Observation year 2025 (series 2015 to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Richardson, R.A.K. et al., The entities enabling scientific fraud at scale are large, resilient, and growing rapidly, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 122(32), 2025 (abstract and open full text record read through Europe PMC). National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back