Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Science is where the frontier is made
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Loss of trust in the research record during a fast-moving emergency
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- A.1 Methods
- A.2 Model card, Science and Engineering Sector Model v0
- A.3 The baseline evidence cut
- A.4 Evidence age and coverage
- A.5 Evidence cards, two anchor sources
- A.6 Publication acceptance record
- A.7 Status words
- A.8 How the edition is made, released and corrected
- A.9 Glossary and abbreviations
- A.10 Technical annex
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Growth in journal articles registered with Crossref, 2015 to 2025 | 6,673,658 ÷ 3,345,563 | ≈2.0 times |
| (2) | Growth in arXiv submissions, 2015 to 2025 | 284,486 ÷ 105,280 | ≈2.7 times |
| (3) | Retraction notices per 100,000 journal articles registered, 2015 and 2025 | 1,678 ÷ 3,345,563 and 7,632 ÷ 6,673,658 | ≈50 and ≈114 |
| (4) | Researcher density, Northern America against Sub-Saharan Africa, 2023 | 5,006 ÷ 88 | ≈57 times |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, Science and Engineering Sector Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-GS15-SCIENCE · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent the global science and engineering system and its couplings to health, food, nature and the digital layer
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
2strong
documented within one season
7moderate
documented, buffered
11weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- DC-SECTOR-SCIENCE-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 44 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- the 2027 science and engineering annual cut
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 global annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited global publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Science and Engineering Sector Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R&D expenditure and shares | 2024 | May 2026 | biennial | next NSB indicators |
| Researchers and intensity | 2023 | Feb 2026 release | annual | next UNESCO release |
| Publication output | 2024 | May 2026 | annual | next NSB indicators |
| Retraction notices | 2025 | live at access | continuous | continuous |
| Preprint volume | 2025 | live at access | monthly | monthly |
| AI in science | 2025 | Apr 2026 | annual | AI Index 2027 |
| Exascale systems | 2026 | Jun 2026 | twice a year | Nov 2026 list |
| Structure and species archives | 2026 | live at access | continuous | continuous |
| Quantum error correction | 2024 | Dec 2024 | one-off | follow-up papers |
| Dual-use framework | 2022 | 2022 | one-off | revision not announced |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Funding | GOOD | basis differences between issuers |
| People | PARTIAL | researcher counts outside advanced economies |
| Output | GOOD | open-access and reuse rates |
| Integrity | PARTIAL | incidents on a common basis |
| AI and compute | PARTIAL | confirmed discoveries; private compute |
| Instruments | PARTIAL | costs and schedules beyond a few projects |
| Data archives | GOOD | coverage bias of records |
| Research security | THIN | incident data not published |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Reconciliation of world R&D intensity: UNESCO 1.92% and World Bank 2.60% for 2023 | UNESCO Institute for Statistics2; World Bank3; OECD Frascati Manual39 | the two series use different coverage and weighting; method notes were not opened |
| Researcher density on one basis for 2020: World Bank 1,652 and UNESCO 1,340 per million | World Bank3; UNESCO Institute for Statistics2 | issuers differ and were not reconciled in this edition |
| Share of the literature that is fraudulent or unreliable | publisher integrity units; retraction databases; PNAS case studies14 | no consolidated database was opened; Crossref notices count notices, not affected papers |
| Replication rates outside psychology | Open Science Collaboration16; Baker survey34 | the one opened study covers psychology only; the survey article is behind a subscription |
| Open-access share of the global literature | UNESCO open science monitoring; open bibliographic indexes | the index used for counts returned a rate-limit error; no figure is used |
| Count of experimentally confirmed AI discoveries | Stanford HAI AI Index 2026, Science chapter9; Co-Scientist27 | the chapter states that the list is short but gives no count |
| Quantum computing progress beyond one error-correction experiment | peer-reviewed papers on other platforms | not retrieved; the one opened result is not generalised |
| Fusion experiments after the 2022 ignition result and the schedule of large fusion devices | operator and project publications | the project schedule page was not accessible; only the 2022 result page was opened |
| Cost and schedule of large facilities other than the Future Circular Collider study | national roadmaps and facility operators | not retrieved |
| Research funding changes in 2025 and 2026 by country | national budget documents; funders | not retrieved; the NSB indicators cover obligations to FY 2024 |
| Women in engineering and in AI research | UNESCO Institute for Statistics; national statistics offices | the opened series covers all researchers only |
| Research security incidents on a common basis | national authorities; institutions | incident data are not published on a common basis |
| TOP500 list of November 2026 | TOP500 project4 | release after the evidence close; the June 2026 list is cited |
| Peer-review capacity and reviewer load | publishers; learned societies | no consolidated series found at evidence close |
| Capability rungs beyond open archives and compute | funders, institutions, regulators | not reviewed |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the US National Science Board with NCSES in May 2026 from OECD and national R&D data and Scopus bibliometrics. Biennial. Role: binds FIN-001 and TRD-004. Some data are preliminary.
EVD-GS15-001
NSB Indicators 2026: State of U.S. S&E1
Compiled by UNESCO from national R&D surveys, February 2026 release (data version of May 2026). Annual. Role: binds FIN-002, DAT-003 and the capacity tiles. Regional values are aggregates.
EVD-GS15-002
UNESCO Institute for Statistics data2
| Dimension | EVD-GS15-001 | EVD-GS15-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | OECD and select non-OECD economies; Scopus coverage | national surveys; aggregates depend on coverage |
| Timeliness | about 17 months after the year | about 26 months after the year |
| Revision | totals may be revised as national data arrive | values revised at each release |
| Method transparency | technical documentation published | indicator metadata published |
| External validation | compared with OECD series | national statistical review |
Evidence cards to follow in 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | science and engineering, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| AI | artificial intelligence |
| arXiv | open preprint server for physics, mathematics and computer science |
| CERN | European Organization for Nuclear Research |
| Eflop/s | exaflop per second, 10 to the power 18 floating-point operations per second |
| FTE | full-time equivalent |
| GBIF | Global Biodiversity Information Facility |
| GERD | gross domestic expenditure on research and development |
| NCSES | National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics |
| NSB | National Science Board |
| PDB | Protein Data Bank |
| PPP | purchasing power parity |
| R&D | research and development |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the global indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-GS15-INT-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Facility and archive notes | cards for the major shared facilities and archives | WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: researchers per million inhabitants
- Construct
- full-time equivalent researchers engaged in R&D, per million inhabitants
- Unit
- researchers per million people
- Method
- issuer indicator based on national R&D surveys; regional aggregates
- Source
- UNESCO Institute for Statistics, February 2026 data release2
- Uncertainty
- aggregates depend on national coverage and the World Bank series differs
- Known limits
- measures headcount in effort, not quality, equipment or freedom to publish
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 2UNESCO Institute for Statistics (ed.), UIS data API, data version 20260507 (February 2026 data release): indicators EXPGDP.TOT, RESDEN.INHAB.TFTE and FRESP.THC, world and regional aggregates. UNESCO, Montreal. Data pulled and read. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators API (series updated 2026-10-08, after the 30 September evidence close; cited as the position at access): GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS, SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6, IP.JRN.ARTC.SC, IP.PAT.RESD, IP.PAT.NRES, world values. World Bank, Washington. Data pulled and read. Observation year 2023 (patents 2024, researchers 2020). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Frascati Manual 2015: Guidelines for Collecting and Reporting Data on Research and Experimental Development, cited from memory. OECD Publishing, Paris. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Richardson, R.A.K. et al., The entities enabling scientific fraud at scale are large, resilient, and growing rapidly, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 122(32), 2025 (abstract and open full text record read through Europe PMC). National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Open Science Collaboration, Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science, Science 349(6251), aac4716, 2015 (abstract read through Europe PMC; full text not opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Baker, M., 1,500 scientists lift the lid on reproducibility, Nature 533, 452 to 454, 2016; the article is behind a subscription and only its bibliographic record was checked. Springer Nature, London. No figure from it is used. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9Stanford HAI (ed.), The 2026 AI Index Report, Chapter 5 Science, chapter page with its highlights. Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI, Stanford. Page read; the chapter PDF was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27Gottweis, J. et al., Accelerating scientific discovery with Co-Scientist, arXiv 2502.18864 (version 2, 2026; abstract read through the arXiv API). Cornell University, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4TOP500 project (ed.), TOP500 list, 67th edition, June 2026 (release text read in full for the leading systems). TOP500, Prometeus GmbH. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1NSB (ed.), Science and Engineering Indicators 2026: The State of U.S. Science and Engineering (NSB-SEP-2026-1), May 2026, National Science Board and National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics, US National Science Foundation, Alexandria. Full PDF opened; global R&D, publications, collaboration, venture investment, semiconductor and doctoral-degree figures read from the text. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6Crossref (ed.), Crossref REST API, work counts by type and publication year and counts of retraction notices (update-type filter), queried live on the access date. Crossref, Oxford. Counts are subject to later registration. Observation year 2025 (series 2015 to 2025). Accessed 2026-11-03.back