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Reports
Baseline Edition 2026
Complete edition

India Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

The State of India’s Interdependent Systems

Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.

ReportsIND

Country Systems Risk and Resilience

India 2026

The State of India’s Interdependent Systems

Baseline Edition 2026NR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Imprint

Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto
Report number: NR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE
Evidence close: 30 September 2026, cut NQ-IND-2026-Q0-1
Status: Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
DOI and UNI: Issued at deposit
Licence: CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence
Cite as: Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). India Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of India’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/ind/

Contents

·
Executive summary
1
Chapter 1. India’s risk is monsoon-dependent, heat-loaded and changing fast in power
2
Chapter 2. Key findings
3
Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline
4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
5
Chapter 5. A second deficient monsoon across groundwater, kharif output, power demand and food budgets
6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
7
Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda
8
Chapter 8. Systems in depth
A
Annex A. Methodology
B
Annex B. Data appendix
C
Annex C. References and record

India 2026
Executive summary

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables11 notesNR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE

S.1Abstract

India enters 2027 with a population of 1,463.9 million, a power fleet that is now more than half non-fossil by capacity, and a water and food system that rests on one seasonal rainfall regime. The population figure is for 2025¹. Installed non-fossil capacity was 300.50 GW of about 552 GW on 31 July 2026⁹¹⁰, yet fossil fuels still supplied about 73% of electricity generation¹². The 2026 southwest monsoon delivered 87% of the long period average, and East and Northeast India recorded its lowest season in the record since 1901¹⁶. Groundwater extraction stood at 60.63% of the extractable resource in 2025, with 730 of 6,762 assessment units over-exploited¹⁸, while the Ministry of Agriculture estimates a record 376.563 million tonnes of foodgrain for 2025–26¹⁹. The weather service counted about 2,760 deaths from extreme weather in 2025, more than 1,370 of them from heavy rain, floods, cloudbursts and landslides¹⁴. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for India’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which monsoon, heat and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. Where a figure could not be bound to a published source, the page says so. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the India baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

The latest full inventory is 2020: 2,959 Mt CO₂e excluding land use. CO₂ alone was 3,154 Mt in 2024.⁴⁵
Where do emissions stand?Reported
The 2025 season delivered 108% of the average and the 2026 season 87%.¹⁴¹⁶
How reliable is the monsoon?Reported
Extraction was 60.63% of the extractable resource in 2025; 730 units were over-exploited.¹⁸
How tight is groundwater?Reported
Non-fossil sources are 54% of capacity, but fossil fuels supplied about 73% of generation.⁹¹²
How is the power system changing?Reported
The 2025–26 foodgrain estimate is a record 376.563 Mt; the 2026 monsoon effect is not yet bound.¹⁹
How secure is food?Reported
Not bound: official and media heat-death counts differ by a wide margin. NCDC · state health departments
Is heat a health hazard?Not bound
Not bound: no insured-loss series was retrieved by evidence close. IRDAI · general insurers
Who carries the losses?Not bound
A second deficient monsoon cutting groundwater, kharif output and food budgets together. SCN-IND-MON-01
What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

The 2026 southwest monsoon delivered 87% of the long period average, the fourth lowest total since 2001. East and Northeast India received 74% of its average, its lowest season since 1901, and the South Peninsula 76%.

Figure S.1The 2026 monsoon by month, all India (% of the long period average)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
June		65
July		101
August		84
September		92

Source: India Meteorological Department, salient features of the 2026 southwest monsoon season¹⁶. June was 65% of the average, and the Kerala onset on 4 June was three days late.

A season at 87% of the average reaches water, crops and power at different speeds. Reservoir and groundwater effects persist into the dry season, and crop effects show in the production estimates that follow. The 2025 season was 108% of the average and coincided with a record foodgrain estimate for 2025–26¹⁴¹⁹. The weather service reported 17 of 36 subdivisions as deficient in 2026, covering 42% of the area¹⁶.

S.4At a glance

1,463.9million

population, 2025¹

35.7%

urban population share, 2025¹

3,956USD billion

gross domestic product, current prices, 2025²

72.2years

life expectancy at birth, 2024²

3,154Mt

CO₂ emissions excluding land use, 2024⁴

300.50GW

non-fossil installed capacity, 31 July 2026⁹

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a late monsoon, a flood, a heat wave or a price rise.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Insured and uninsured losses are not bound, and groundwater extraction exceeds 100% in three states.

NEXUS

Synthesis

India is building clean power at record speed, yet water, food and health still depend on rainfall.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of India’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, population, total (SP.POP.TOTL) and urban population share (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2025.back
9Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (ed.), installed non-fossil power capacity at 31 July 2026, as reported by Renewable Watch. New Delhi, 11 August 2026. Observation date 31 July 2026.back
10Government of India (ed.), power-capacity factsheet of 13 August 2026, as reported by the Indo-Asian News Service. New Delhi, 13 August 2026. Observation date July 2026.back
12Ember (ed.), India: electricity data and analysis (country page). Ember, London, accessed 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
16India Meteorological Department (ed.), Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, 30 September 2026. Observation year 2026.back
18Central Ground Water Board and Ministry of Jal Shakti (eds.), Dynamic Ground Water Resources Assessment of India 2025, as summarised by Vision IAS. New Delhi, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
19Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (ed.), Third Advance Estimates of Production of Major Crops for 2025–26, released 27 May 2026. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, New Delhi. Observation year 2025–26.back
14India Meteorological Department (ed.), Statement on the Climate of India during 2025. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, press release of 1 January 2026, published by the World Meteorological Organization 12 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, CO2 emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5) and mortality attributed to household and ambient air pollution (SH.STA.AIRP.P5). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2019 and 2024.back
5Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Fourth Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, including the 2020 national greenhouse-gas inventory. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted 30 December 2024. Observation year 2020.back
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, GDP in current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN) and population aged 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025.back

India 2026
Chapter 1

India’s risk is monsoon-dependent, heat-loaded and changing fast in power

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no state.

9 min read2 figures2 tables24 notesNR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

Where is India’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

Narrative
Headline finding
Lead figure
Five system chapters
Twelve-domain reading
Sector screens
Dependency matrix
Risk objects
Capability ladder
Scenario
Three lenses
Portfolio

1.2The argument

India is a very large economy in which most people still live outside cities, and its water, food and power systems answer to one seasonal rainfall regime. This baseline reads its exposure as three forces acting together: a variable monsoon, a warming climate with frequent weather extremes, and a power system that is adding clean capacity quickly while still generating most electricity from fossil fuels.

The monsoon layer sets the year. The 2025 season delivered 108% of the long period average and the 2026 season 87%, the fourth lowest total since 2001¹⁴¹⁶. The 2026 total hides a split: Northwest and Central India received normal rainfall, while East and Northeast India recorded its lowest season since 1901 and the South Peninsula the second lowest since 2001¹⁶. The weather service had forecast 92% of the average in April and 90% in May¹⁷.

The water layer is where the rainfall deficit becomes a stock problem. Groundwater extraction was 60.63% of the extractable resource in 2025, below the 63.33% of 2017 but above 100% in Punjab, Rajasthan and Haryana¹⁸. Peer-reviewed work finds falling groundwater storage in northern India²⁴²⁵. Renewable internal freshwater was about 1,014 m³ per person in 2022³.

The extremes layer is physical and lethal. 2025 was the eighth warmest year in the record, with the highest winter anomaly since 1901¹⁴. The weather service counted about 2,760 deaths from extreme weather, more than half of them from rain, floods, cloudbursts, landslides and lightning, and Punjab had its worst floods since 1988¹⁴¹⁵. Peer-reviewed studies report a threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India and project deadly heat waves in South Asia²⁶²⁷.

The energy layer is changing quickly. Non-fossil sources were 54% of installed capacity on 31 July 2026, above the 50% set for 2030 in the 2022 contribution, and 55.29 GW was added in 2025–26⁸⁹¹⁰. Fossil generation still fell 3.3% in 2025, yet fossil fuels supplied about 73% of electricity, and net energy imports were 36.0% of energy use in 2024³¹¹¹².

The people layer is large and urbanising. The population was 1,463.9 million in 2025, 35.7% of it urban, with life expectancy of 72.2 years and 7.4% of people aged 65 or over¹². Foodgrain production is estimated at a record 376.563 Mt for 2025–26, so the food system entered the deficient 2026 monsoon with high output¹⁹.

This edition therefore reads India’s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1How is India’s 2020 emissions total built up? Greenhouse-gas emissions by sector (Mt CO₂e)

Energy supplies about 76% of the 2020 total of 2,959 Mt CO₂e excluding land use. Land use and forestry removed a further 522 Mt, which gives a net total of 2,437 Mt⁵. This is the latest official inventory year at evidence close. CO₂ alone was 3,154 Mt in 2024 on a different series⁴.

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Energy		2238
Agriculture		406
Industrial processes and product use		239
Waste		76

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2020.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-01-003

2,959Mt CO₂e

total excluding land use, 2020⁵

522Mt

removed by land use and forestry, 2020⁵

36%

fall in GDP emission intensity, 2005 to 2020⁵

2070net zero

national goal⁷⁴⁰

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The India matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

Strong
Moderate
Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, to	WAT	ENE	FOO	HLT	BIO
WAT Water	·	STRONG nuclear cooling · hydro	STRONG irrigation · rain-fed yield	MODERATE drinking water	STRONG flows · wetlands
ENE Energy	MODERATE pumping · treatment	·	STRONG fuel · fertiliser · cold chain	STRONG facility power · cooling	MODERATE reservoirs · land use
FOO Food	MODERATE withdrawals · nutrients	WEAK biofuel feedstock	·	STRONG nutrition · food safety	STRONG land conversion
HLT Health	WEAK workforce	WEAK workforce	MODERATE labour · disease	·	WEAK residues
BIO Biodiversity	STRONG regulation · filtration	MODERATE fire on lines · biomass	STRONG pollination · soils	MODERATE zoonoses · smoke	·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

01
CLI → WAT → FOO
A deficient monsoon lowers recharge and raises pumping, and tests irrigated and rain-fed crops.
Reported 2026¹⁶ · 2025¹⁸
02
CLI → INF → HLT
Cloudbursts, floods and landslides cut roads and lifelines in the mountains.
Reported 2025¹⁴
03
ENE → WAT
Pumping and cooling demand couple groundwater to the power system.
Expert input physical coupling
04
TRD → ENE → FIN
Net energy imports pass fuel prices into the economy.
Reported 2024³
05
CLI → HLT
Extreme heat loads health and care; deaths are counted inconsistently.
Reported 2025²¹²²

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
Loop	First direction	Second direction
WAT and BIO	Water to biodiversity: flows · wetlands	Biodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIO	Food to biodiversity: land conversion	Biodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

14India Meteorological Department (ed.), Statement on the Climate of India during 2025. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, press release of 1 January 2026, published by the World Meteorological Organization 12 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
16India Meteorological Department (ed.), Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, 30 September 2026. Observation year 2026.back
17India Meteorological Department (ed.), Updated Long Range Forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall (June–September) and Monthly outlook for June month. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, May 2026. Observation year 2026.back
18Central Ground Water Board and Ministry of Jal Shakti (eds.), Dynamic Ground Water Resources Assessment of India 2025, as summarised by Vision IAS. New Delhi, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
24M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238. Observation year 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238 back
25A. Asoka, T. Gleeson, Y. Wada and V. Mishra, “Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 10, pp. 109–117, 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869 back
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, net energy imports (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), renewable internal freshwater per person (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and irrigated agricultural land (AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2022–2024.back
15Down To Earth (ed.), “2025 marked by rising night-time temperatures and extreme rainfall across seasons in India.” Centre for Science and Environment, New Delhi, January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
26M. K. Roxy, S. Ghosh, A. Pathak et al., “A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India,” Nature Communications, vol. 8, article 708, 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9 back
27E.-S. Im, J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia,” Science Advances, vol. 3, no. 8, e1603322, 2017. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1603322. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1603322 back
8Government of India (ed.), India’s Updated First Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement. UNFCCC, Bonn, August 2022. Observation year 2030 target.back
9Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (ed.), installed non-fossil power capacity at 31 July 2026, as reported by Renewable Watch. New Delhi, 11 August 2026. Observation date 31 July 2026.back
10Government of India (ed.), power-capacity factsheet of 13 August 2026, as reported by the Indo-Asian News Service. New Delhi, 13 August 2026. Observation date July 2026.back
11Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 22 April 2026. Observation year 2025.back
12Ember (ed.), India: electricity data and analysis (country page). Ember, London, accessed 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, population, total (SP.POP.TOTL) and urban population share (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2025.back
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, GDP in current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN) and population aged 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025.back
19Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (ed.), Third Advance Estimates of Production of Major Crops for 2025–26, released 27 May 2026. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, New Delhi. Observation year 2025–26.back
5Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Fourth Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, including the 2020 national greenhouse-gas inventory. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted 30 December 2024. Observation year 2020.back
4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, CO2 emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5) and mortality attributed to household and ambient air pollution (SH.STA.AIRP.P5). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2019 and 2024.back
7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), India: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, September 2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
40Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 14 November 2022. Observation year 2022.back
21HeatWatch (ed.), Struck by Heat: A News Analysis of Heatstroke Deaths in India in 2025, as reported by The Print. New Delhi, 22 August 2025. Observation period February to July 2025.back
22Press Trust of India (ed.), “India recorded over 7,000 suspected heatstroke cases, 14 deaths in March–June period: RTI,” reporting National Centre for Disease Control data. The Print, New Delhi, July 2025. Observation period 1 March to 24 June 2025.back

India 2026
Chapter 2

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables20 notesNR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

Figure 2.1The 2026 monsoon by month, all India (% of the long period average)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
June		65
July		101
August		84
September		92

Source: India Meteorological Department, salient features of the 2026 southwest monsoon season¹⁶. June was 65% of the average, and the Kerala onset on 4 June was three days late.

Implication

What would move it

Kharif 2026 production estimates, reservoir storage in the dry season, groundwater levels in the north-west and south, and the 2027 monsoon forecast would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001
2025 was the eighth warmest year in the national record since 1901, 0.28 °C above the 1991–2020 average; winter 2025 had the highest seasonal anomaly on record (+1.17 °C), and 2024 remains the warmest year (+0.65 °C).¹⁴
ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002
The 2026 southwest monsoon delivered 87% of the long period average (759.4 mm), the fourth lowest total since 2001; East and Northeast India received 74% and the South Peninsula 76%, and 17 of 36 subdivisions, covering 42% of the area, were deficient.¹⁶
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003
The weather service recorded about 2,760 deaths from extreme weather in 2025: more than 1,370 from heavy rain, floods, cloudbursts and landslides, and more than 1,310 from lightning. The count draws on media and disaster-authority reports.¹⁴
ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008
The latest official inventory gives 2,959 Mt CO₂e for 2020 excluding land use, with energy 2,238 Mt; the 2035 contribution targets a 47% cut in emissions intensity of GDP from 2005 and net zero by 2070.⁵⁶⁷⁴⁰

2.3Water

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-WAT-004
Groundwater extraction was 247.22 billion cubic metres in 2025, 60.63% of the 407.75 billion extractable; 730 of 6,762 assessment units (10.8%) were over-exploited, with stage of extraction at 156.36% in Punjab, 147.11% in Rajasthan and 136.75% in Haryana.¹⁸
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005
Renewable internal freshwater was about 1,014 m³ per person in 2022, and peer-reviewed satellite and modelling studies find falling groundwater storage in northern India, with pumping as a major driver.³²⁴²⁵

2.4Energy

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-ENE-006
On 31 July 2026 non-fossil sources provided 300.50 GW of about 552 GW installed capacity, over 54%: solar 164.59 GW, wind 58.14 GW, hydro 57.24 GW, bio-power 11.75 GW and nuclear 8.78 GW; 55.29 GW was added in 2025–26.⁹¹⁰
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007
Fossil generation fell 3.3% in 2025 as renewables grew by a record 98 TWh; solar reached 196 TWh, 9.4% of demand, and fossil fuels still supplied about 73% of generation. Net energy imports were 36.0% of energy use in 2024.³¹¹¹²¹³

2.5Food

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009
The third advance estimate for 2025–26 puts foodgrain at a record 376.563 Mt, up 5.3% on 2024–25, with rice at 154.024 Mt and wheat at 120.657 Mt; the wheat export ban of May 2022 continues.¹⁹²⁰

2.6Health

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010
Life expectancy was 72.2 years in 2024 and 7.4% of people were aged 65 or over in 2025; no consistent national heat-death series exists, since the national disease-control centre confirmed 14 deaths between March and June 2025 while a media review found at least 84 between February and July.²²¹²²

2.7Biodiversity

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011
Forest covered 24.4% of land in 2024 and 7.7% of land was under terrestrial protection; condition outside protected areas is not bound in this edition.³

2.8Systemic

Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a second deficient monsoon that cuts groundwater recharge, kharif output and household food budgets together. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

16India Meteorological Department (ed.), Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, 30 September 2026. Observation year 2026.back
14India Meteorological Department (ed.), Statement on the Climate of India during 2025. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, press release of 1 January 2026, published by the World Meteorological Organization 12 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
19Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (ed.), Third Advance Estimates of Production of Major Crops for 2025–26, released 27 May 2026. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, New Delhi. Observation year 2025–26.back
5Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Fourth Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, including the 2020 national greenhouse-gas inventory. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted 30 December 2024. Observation year 2020.back
6Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Nationally Determined Contribution for 2031–2035. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 24 April 2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), India: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, September 2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
40Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 14 November 2022. Observation year 2022.back
18Central Ground Water Board and Ministry of Jal Shakti (eds.), Dynamic Ground Water Resources Assessment of India 2025, as summarised by Vision IAS. New Delhi, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, net energy imports (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), renewable internal freshwater per person (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and irrigated agricultural land (AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2022–2024.back
24M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238. Observation year 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238 back
25A. Asoka, T. Gleeson, Y. Wada and V. Mishra, “Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 10, pp. 109–117, 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869 back
9Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (ed.), installed non-fossil power capacity at 31 July 2026, as reported by Renewable Watch. New Delhi, 11 August 2026. Observation date 31 July 2026.back
10Government of India (ed.), power-capacity factsheet of 13 August 2026, as reported by the Indo-Asian News Service. New Delhi, 13 August 2026. Observation date July 2026.back
11Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 22 April 2026. Observation year 2025.back
12Ember (ed.), India: electricity data and analysis (country page). Ember, London, accessed 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
13pv magazine (ed.), “Record solar, wind surge drives 3.3% drop in India’s fossil generation in 2025,” reporting Ember’s Global Electricity Review 2026. pv magazine, Berlin, 27 April 2026. Observation year 2025.back
20Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: India. FAO, Rome, reference date 13 February 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, GDP in current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN) and population aged 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025.back
21HeatWatch (ed.), Struck by Heat: A News Analysis of Heatstroke Deaths in India in 2025, as reported by The Print. New Delhi, 22 August 2025. Observation period February to July 2025.back
22Press Trust of India (ed.), “India recorded over 7,000 suspected heatstroke cases, 14 deaths in March–June period: RTI,” reporting National Centre for Disease Control data. The Print, New Delhi, July 2025. Observation period 1 March to 24 June 2025.back

India 2026
Chapter 3

Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables17 notesNR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Groundwater extraction as a share of the extractable resource

60.6%

730 of 6,762 assessment units are over-exploited; Punjab stands at 156%.

Reported2025CGWB and states¹⁸

ENE · Energy

Non-fossil sources in installed power capacity

54%

Fossil fuels still supplied about 73% of generation in 2025.

Reported31 Jul 2026MNRE as reported⁹¹⁰ · Ember¹²

FOO · Food

Foodgrain production, third advance estimate

376.6Mt

Up 5.3% on 2024–25; an estimate that can be revised.

Reported2025–26Ministry of Agriculture¹⁹

HLT · Health

Life expectancy at birth

72.2years

No consistent national heat-death series exists; official and media counts differ.

Reported2024World Bank² · NCDC²²

BIO · Biodiversity

Terrestrial area under protection

7.7% of land

Forest area was 24.4% of land in 2024 on the same World Bank series.

Reported2024World Bank³

SYS · Cross-system

Deaths from extreme weather events

≈2,760deaths

More than 1,370 from rain, floods, cloudbursts and landslides.

Reported2025IMD¹⁴

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	Extraction at 60.63% of the extractable groundwater; over-exploited units concentrated in the north-west, west and south.	WAT → FOO · WAT ↔ ENE	Reported EQL 3
ENE	Non-fossil sources are 54% of capacity; fossil fuels still supply about 73% of generation.	ENE ← TRD · ENE → all	Reported EQL 4
FOO	Record foodgrain estimate of 376.563 Mt for 2025–26; wheat export ban continues.	FOO ← WAT, CLI, TRD	Reported EQL 4
HLT	Life expectancy 72.2 years; heat-death counts are inconsistent; air-pollution mortality was 139.3 per 100,000 in 2019.	HLT ← CLI	Reported EQL 3
BIO	Forest is 24.4% of land and 7.7% of land is protected; condition outside protection is not bound.	BIO ↔ WAT, FOO	Reported EQL 3
CLI	2025 was 0.28 °C above the 1991–2020 average; the 2026 monsoon was 87% of the average.	forcing on all systems	Reported EQL 5
INF	Fast-growing urban and lifeline stock exposed to flood, heat and earthquake; condition not bound at public-safe resolution.	INF → all	Expert input EQL 2
FIN	Insured and uninsured disaster losses are not bound in this edition.	FIN ← CLI	Not bound EQL 1
DAT	Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.	DAT → ENE, FIN	Expert input EQL 2
AIC	Data-centre and compute demand for power and water not bound in this edition.	AIC → ENE, WAT	Expert input EQL 2
MIN	Critical-mineral dependence for solar, wind and storage not bound.	MIN ← TRD	Expert input EQL 2
TRD	Net energy imports were 36.0% of energy use in 2024.	TRD → all	Reported EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	compound monsoon, heat and supply stress	deficient monsoon; flood year	PARTIAL
GS-01	Water	groundwater extraction 60.63%¹⁸	deficient monsoon; over-extraction	PARTIAL
GS-02	Energy	non-fossil share of capacity 54%⁹	evening peak; coal dependence	GOOD
GS-03	Food	foodgrain 376.563 Mt estimate¹⁹	short harvest; export policy	PARTIAL
GS-04	Health	life expectancy 72.2 years²	heat and air pollution; counts not bound	THIN
GS-05	Finance	insured losses not bound	catastrophe fiscal cost	THIN
GS-06	Development	urban share 35.7%¹	service demand in fast-growing cities	PARTIAL
GS-07	Climate	2025 at +0.28 °C¹⁴	heat and rain extremes	GOOD
GS-08	Disaster	about 2,760 deaths in 2025¹⁴	flood, cloudburst, lightning, cyclone	PARTIAL
GS-09	Infrastructure	power fleet about 552 GW¹⁰; seismic design zones⁵⁰	flood and seismic exposure	PARTIAL
GS-10	Cities	urban population 35.7%¹; cooling plan⁵²	heat and flood stress	PARTIAL
GS-11	Biodiversity	forest 24.4% of land³; forest survey⁴⁴	fire; land-use change	PARTIAL
GS-12	Earth observation	national weather and climate statements¹⁴¹⁶	continuity	GOOD
GS-13	Cyber and digital	dependencies not yet mapped	systemic outages	THIN
GS-14	Policy	2035 contribution submitted⁶	implementation rules	PARTIAL
GS-15	Science	peer-reviewed groundwater and extremes work²⁴²⁶	translation to states	PARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

18Central Ground Water Board and Ministry of Jal Shakti (eds.), Dynamic Ground Water Resources Assessment of India 2025, as summarised by Vision IAS. New Delhi, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
9Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (ed.), installed non-fossil power capacity at 31 July 2026, as reported by Renewable Watch. New Delhi, 11 August 2026. Observation date 31 July 2026.back
10Government of India (ed.), power-capacity factsheet of 13 August 2026, as reported by the Indo-Asian News Service. New Delhi, 13 August 2026. Observation date July 2026.back
12Ember (ed.), India: electricity data and analysis (country page). Ember, London, accessed 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
19Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (ed.), Third Advance Estimates of Production of Major Crops for 2025–26, released 27 May 2026. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, New Delhi. Observation year 2025–26.back
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, GDP in current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN) and population aged 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025.back
22Press Trust of India (ed.), “India recorded over 7,000 suspected heatstroke cases, 14 deaths in March–June period: RTI,” reporting National Centre for Disease Control data. The Print, New Delhi, July 2025. Observation period 1 March to 24 June 2025.back
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, net energy imports (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), renewable internal freshwater per person (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and irrigated agricultural land (AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2022–2024.back
14India Meteorological Department (ed.), Statement on the Climate of India during 2025. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, press release of 1 January 2026, published by the World Meteorological Organization 12 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, population, total (SP.POP.TOTL) and urban population share (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2025.back
50Bureau of Indian Standards (ed.), IS 1893 (Part 1): 2016, Criteria for Earthquake Resistant Design of Structures. BIS, New Delhi, 2016. Observation year 2016.back
52Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India Cooling Action Plan. MoEFCC, New Delhi, 2019. Observation year 2019.back
44Forest Survey of India (ed.), India State of Forest Report 2023. FSI, Dehradun, December 2024. Observation year 2023.back
16India Meteorological Department (ed.), Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, 30 September 2026. Observation year 2026.back
6Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Nationally Determined Contribution for 2031–2035. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 24 April 2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
24M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238. Observation year 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238 back
26M. K. Roxy, S. Ghosh, A. Pathak et al., “A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India,” Nature Communications, vol. 8, article 708, 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9 back

India 2026
Chapter 4

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

4 min read0 figures1 table11 notesNR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

ReportedEQL 4RSK-IND-CLI-001
Multi-year monsoon deficit with groundwater stress
Driver
deficient monsoon seasons and rising temperature
Exposure
irrigated and rain-fed farmland, cities, hydropower
Vulnerability
groundwater extraction above 100% in three states
Capacity
storage and demand management not bound
Cascade
CLI → WAT → FOO, ENE
Horizon
annual to 5 years
ReportedEQL 4RSK-IND-CLI-002
Cloudburst, flood and landslide sequence in the mountains and plains
Driver
extreme rain on steep or flood-prone terrain
Exposure
mountain valleys, river plains and coasts
Vulnerability
roads, power lines and settlements in hazard zones; not bound
Capacity
warnings and response agencies; effectiveness not bound
Cascade
CLI → INF → HLT, ENE
Horizon
annual
ReportedEQL 3RSK-IND-ENE-003
Power-system balancing as solar share grows
Driver
evening demand after solar output falls
Exposure
households, industry and agriculture
Vulnerability
fossil generation still about 73% of supply
Capacity
storage and flexible capacity not bound
Cascade
ENE → WAT, FOO, FIN
Horizon
1–5 years
Expert inputEQL 2RSK-IND-HLT-004
Extreme heat and humidity
Driver
heat waves and warm nights
Exposure
outdoor workers, older people, dense housing
Vulnerability
cooling access and housing; not bound
Capacity
heat action plans exist as guidance⁴³; use not bound
Cascade
CLI → HLT → ENE
Horizon
seasonal

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
Function	Level	Strongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigation	NOT BOUND	source: building, land-use and watershed registers · blocker: not retrieved by evidence close
Monitoring and observation	EXISTS	the national weather service issues annual and seasonal statements and tracks cyclones¹⁴¹⁶
Early warning	LISTED	cyclone systems were tracked and named in 2025; Montha claimed 9 lives¹⁴; warning effectiveness not bound
Preparedness and planning	LISTED	national disaster management plan of 2019⁴² and heat-wave action guidance⁴³; implementation not bound
Redundancy and reserves	NOT BOUND	source: grain, fuel and reservoir stock data · blocker: not retrieved in bound form
Response	NOT BOUND	source: national and state response-force records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Continuity of critical services	NOT BOUND	source: utility restoration records · blocker: not retrieved
Recovery	NOT BOUND	source: state relief and reconstruction accounts · blocker: not retrieved
Adaptation	LISTED	long-term low-carbon strategy of 2022 and the 2035 contribution⁶⁴⁰
Social protection	NOT BOUND	source: food-distribution and labour ministry records · blocker: not reviewed
Finance and insurance	NOT BOUND	source: insurance regulator and general insurers · blocker: not retrieved
Institutional coordination	LISTED	a national disaster management authority exists⁴²; coordination evidence not bound
Technical infrastructure	LISTED	about 552 GW installed power capacity¹⁰; network condition not bound
Workforce	NOT BOUND	source: sector registers · blocker: not retrieved
Research capacity	LISTED	peer-reviewed groundwater, monsoon and heat literature exists²⁴²⁵²⁶²⁷
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

43National Disaster Management Authority (ed.), Guidelines for Preparation of Action Plan: Prevention and Management of Heat Wave. NDMA, New Delhi, 2019. Observation year 2019.back
14India Meteorological Department (ed.), Statement on the Climate of India during 2025. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, press release of 1 January 2026, published by the World Meteorological Organization 12 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
16India Meteorological Department (ed.), Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, 30 September 2026. Observation year 2026.back
42National Disaster Management Authority (ed.), National Disaster Management Plan 2019. NDMA, New Delhi, 2019. Observation year 2019.back
6Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Nationally Determined Contribution for 2031–2035. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 24 April 2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
40Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 14 November 2022. Observation year 2022.back
10Government of India (ed.), power-capacity factsheet of 13 August 2026, as reported by the Indo-Asian News Service. New Delhi, 13 August 2026. Observation date July 2026.back
24M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238. Observation year 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238 back
25A. Asoka, T. Gleeson, Y. Wada and V. Mishra, “Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 10, pp. 109–117, 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869 back
26M. K. Roxy, S. Ghosh, A. Pathak et al., “A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India,” Nature Communications, vol. 8, article 708, 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9 back
27E.-S. Im, J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia,” Science Advances, vol. 3, no. 8, e1603322, 2017. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1603322. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1603322 back

India 2026
Chapter 5

A second deficient monsoon across groundwater, kharif output, power demand and food budgets

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

3 min read0 figures0 tables5 notesNR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-IND-MON-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline: the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers: a second southwest monsoon season near 87% of the long period average, as in 2026¹⁶
Analogues: 2026 season; groundwater stage of 2025¹⁸; 2025–26 production estimate as the starting level¹⁹
Interventions: none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state: narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1
CLI → WAT
recharge falls and pumping rises in units already over-exploited
2025¹⁸
2
WAT → FOO
irrigation draws on falling groundwater; rain-fed output is exposed; no figure bound
2026¹⁶
3
FOO → FIN
food prices pass into household budgets; no figure bound
not bound
4
ENE → WAT
pumping and cooling demand add load to the power system
physical coupling
5
CLI → HLT
heat and water stress raise health and care demand
2025²¹²²
6
WAT → BIO
drier soils and forests raise fire and stress on wetlands
not bound

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-IND-MON-01 would travel through India’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Climate to water	Recharge falls and pumping rises in units already over-exploited. Analogue or source: 2025 [18].	Edition IND, scenario SCN-IND-MON-01, step 1
02 Water to food	Irrigation draws on falling groundwater; rain-fed output is exposed; no figure bound. Analogue or source: 2026 [16].	Edition IND, scenario SCN-IND-MON-01, step 2
03 Food to finance	Food prices pass into household budgets; no figure bound. Analogue or source: not bound.	Edition IND, scenario SCN-IND-MON-01, step 3
04 Energy to water	Pumping and cooling demand add load to the power system. Analogue or source: physical coupling.	Edition IND, scenario SCN-IND-MON-01, step 4
05 Climate to health	Heat and water stress raise health and care demand. Analogue or source: 2025 [21] [22].	Edition IND, scenario SCN-IND-MON-01, step 5
06 Water to biodiversity	Drier soils and forests raise fire and stress on wetlands. Analogue or source: not bound.	Edition IND, scenario SCN-IND-MON-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: India 2026, scenario SCN-IND-MON-01 (2026); India 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

16India Meteorological Department (ed.), Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, 30 September 2026. Observation year 2026.back
18Central Ground Water Board and Ministry of Jal Shakti (eds.), Dynamic Ground Water Resources Assessment of India 2025, as summarised by Vision IAS. New Delhi, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
19Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (ed.), Third Advance Estimates of Production of Major Crops for 2025–26, released 27 May 2026. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, New Delhi. Observation year 2025–26.back
21HeatWatch (ed.), Struck by Heat: A News Analysis of Heatstroke Deaths in India in 2025, as reported by The Print. New Delhi, 22 August 2025. Observation period February to July 2025.back
22Press Trust of India (ed.), “India recorded over 7,000 suspected heatstroke cases, 14 deaths in March–June period: RTI,” reporting National Centre for Disease Control data. The Print, New Delhi, July 2025. Observation period 1 March to 24 June 2025.back

India 2026
Chapter 6

Readings from the other desks

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

13 min read0 figures8 tables39 notesNR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRA Capital Readiness	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Standards Progress	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Academy Capability	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Index Measurement	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of India’s risk: the monsoon sets water and food outcomes, extremes cause large and rising loss of life, and the power system is changing faster than its fuel mix. Evidence is strongest for climate, capacity and crop estimates, and weakest for heat deaths, insured losses and lifeline continuity.

CLI-002 · WAT-004 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a late monsoon, a flood, a heat wave or a price rise. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how a deficient season reaches household budgets, and how losses from floods and heat are shared between households, insurers and the state.

CLI-003 · FOO-009 · HLT-010

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Insured and uninsured losses are not bound, and groundwater extraction exceeds 100% in three states¹⁸. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.

WAT-004 · SYS-012

NEXUS

Synthesis

India is building clean power at record speed, yet water, food and health still depend on rainfall. The 2027 programme should test the deficient-monsoon pathway, map lifeline dependencies for one mountain valley, and bind a heat-death series.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-04

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for India. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability have been developed?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests reveal?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What did the year establish, and what changes next?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
GCRI Canada	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
India	national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups	national Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

A season at 108% of the average in 2025 was followed by one at 87% in 2026. The baseline treats rainfall variability as the first coupling in India’s water, food and power systems.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

The monsoon is the system

Non-fossil sources now hold more than half of installed capacity, yet fossil fuels still supplied about 73% of electricity in 2025. Capacity and generation are different measures, and both are needed.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Clean capacity, fossil generation

The weather service counts about 2,760 extreme-weather deaths for 2025, while official and media heat-death counts differ by a wide margin. A count that cannot be reproduced is a gap, and the baseline says so.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Counting the dead

This edition leaves several cells empty and names the source that would fill each. A blank with a blocker is more useful than an estimate without a source.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Gaps are findings too

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.3Q1 2027 readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First Q1 2027 entry
E1	National risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	NWG delivery register	no groups yet	first monthly outputs
E5	NNC capability register	membership opens in Q1 2027	first contributions
E6	NLC questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	environment prepared	first sealed cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first correction cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
SUBMITTED
UNDER REVIEW
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Paris Agreement · 2035 contribution: 47% cut in emissions intensity from 2005⁶³²	UNFCCC · India	national	SUBMITTED 2026	emissions pathway
Updated first contribution: 45% intensity cut and 50% non-fossil capacity by 2030⁸	UNFCCC · India	national	SUBMITTED 2022	target already passed for capacity
Long-term low-carbon development strategy⁴⁰	Government of India	national	SUBMITTED 2022	net zero 2070
Kunming-Montreal Framework³¹	CBD	international	ADOPTED 2022	30by30
Sendai Framework · national disaster management plan³⁰⁴²	UNDRR · NDMA	international · national	PUBLISHED 2015 · 2019	disaster risk reduction
Heat-wave action-plan guidelines⁴³	NDMA	states and cities	PUBLISHED 2019	heat preparedness

Changed since 2024

India submitted its 2035 climate contribution on 24 April 2026⁶⁷
Non-fossil capacity passed 300 GW in July 2026⁹¹⁰
First-phase houselisting for Census 2027 closed on 30 September 2026²³

To watch in 2027

The next biennial update report and the method note for the 2035 intensity target⁵⁶
The national electricity plan and capacity additions⁴¹
Population enumeration dates for Census 2027²³

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about India’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Table 6.5Science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Lee and Romero (eds.)²⁹	assessment	2023	context	forcing
McElwee et al. (eds.)³⁵	assessment	2024	framework	nexus interlinkages
Zscheischler et al.³⁶	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
Rodell et al.²⁴ · Asoka et al.²⁵	journal articles	2009 · 2017	supports	groundwater depletion
Roxy et al.²⁶ · Im et al.²⁷	journal articles	2017	supports	rain and heat extremes

Table 6.6Institutional reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
India Country Climate and Development Report⁴⁹	World Bank	2022	context	climate and development
Long-term low-carbon strategy⁴⁰	Government of India	2022	supports	net zero 2070
National Electricity Plan, generation⁴¹	Central Electricity Authority	2023	context	capacity planning
Composite Water Management Index 2.0⁴⁶	NITI Aayog	2019	context	water management
Hindu Kush Himalaya assessment⁴⁸	ICIMOD	2023	context	mountain water and ice

Table 6.7Official statistics and national sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
IMD annual statement¹⁴ · monsoon summary¹⁶	India Meteorological Department	2026	supports	climate and monsoon
Groundwater assessment¹⁸	CGWB and states	2025	supports	groundwater
Foodgrain estimates¹⁹ · crop brief²⁰	Ministry of Agriculture · FAO	2026	supports	food
National Family Health Survey 2019–21⁴⁷	IIPS and Ministry of Health	2021	context	health, not bound
World Population Prospects⁵¹ · health statistics³⁷	UN DESA · WHO	2024–2025	context	population and health

Table 6.8Industry, loss data and international sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Census 2027 notices²³	Registrar General	2026	supports	population evidence timing
Heat-death reports²¹²²	HeatWatch · press report of NCDC data	2025	supports	inconsistent counts
Electricity review¹¹ · country page¹²	Ember	2026	supports	power mix
Air-pollution burden²⁸	Lancet Planetary Health	2021	supports	health burden
NatCatSERVICE³⁴ · energy review³³	Munich Re · IEA	2025–2026	context	global losses and energy

Where the evidence agrees

India is warming and the monsoon varies strongly between seasons¹⁴¹⁶
Groundwater extraction is highest in the north-west¹⁸²⁴
Non-fossil capacity is growing faster than fossil generation is falling⁹¹¹

Where it is unsettled

How many people die from heat each year, since official and media counts differ²¹²²
How fast fossil generation can fall as evening demand grows¹²
How to compare capacity and generation shares of non-fossil power

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

18Central Ground Water Board and Ministry of Jal Shakti (eds.), Dynamic Ground Water Resources Assessment of India 2025, as summarised by Vision IAS. New Delhi, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
6Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Nationally Determined Contribution for 2031–2035. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 24 April 2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
32UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
8Government of India (ed.), India’s Updated First Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement. UNFCCC, Bonn, August 2022. Observation year 2030 target.back
40Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 14 November 2022. Observation year 2022.back
31Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
30UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
42National Disaster Management Authority (ed.), National Disaster Management Plan 2019. NDMA, New Delhi, 2019. Observation year 2019.back
43National Disaster Management Authority (ed.), Guidelines for Preparation of Action Plan: Prevention and Management of Heat Wave. NDMA, New Delhi, 2019. Observation year 2019.back
7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), India: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, September 2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
9Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (ed.), installed non-fossil power capacity at 31 July 2026, as reported by Renewable Watch. New Delhi, 11 August 2026. Observation date 31 July 2026.back
10Government of India (ed.), power-capacity factsheet of 13 August 2026, as reported by the Indo-Asian News Service. New Delhi, 13 August 2026. Observation date July 2026.back
23Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India (ed.), Census 2027: houselisting and population enumeration notices. Ministry of Home Affairs, New Delhi, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
5Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Fourth Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, including the 2020 national greenhouse-gas inventory. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted 30 December 2024. Observation year 2020.back
41Central Electricity Authority (ed.), National Electricity Plan, Volume I: Generation. CEA, New Delhi, 2023. Observation year 2022.back
29H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
35P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 back
36J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018.back
24M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238. Observation year 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238 back
25A. Asoka, T. Gleeson, Y. Wada and V. Mishra, “Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 10, pp. 109–117, 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869 back
26M. K. Roxy, S. Ghosh, A. Pathak et al., “A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India,” Nature Communications, vol. 8, article 708, 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9 back
27E.-S. Im, J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia,” Science Advances, vol. 3, no. 8, e1603322, 2017. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1603322. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1603322 back
49World Bank (ed.), India: Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank, Washington DC, October 2022. Observation year 2022.back
46NITI Aayog (ed.), Composite Water Management Index 2.0. NITI Aayog, New Delhi, 2019. Observation year 2018.back
48International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ed.), Water, Ice, Society, and Ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: An Outlook. ICIMOD, Kathmandu, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
14India Meteorological Department (ed.), Statement on the Climate of India during 2025. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, press release of 1 January 2026, published by the World Meteorological Organization 12 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
16India Meteorological Department (ed.), Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, 30 September 2026. Observation year 2026.back
19Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (ed.), Third Advance Estimates of Production of Major Crops for 2025–26, released 27 May 2026. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, New Delhi. Observation year 2025–26.back
20Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: India. FAO, Rome, reference date 13 February 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
47International Institute for Population Sciences and ICF (eds.), National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), 2019–21: India. IIPS, Mumbai, 2021. Observation years 2019–2021.back
51United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024. Observation year 2024.back
37World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2023.back
21HeatWatch (ed.), Struck by Heat: A News Analysis of Heatstroke Deaths in India in 2025, as reported by The Print. New Delhi, 22 August 2025. Observation period February to July 2025.back
22Press Trust of India (ed.), “India recorded over 7,000 suspected heatstroke cases, 14 deaths in March–June period: RTI,” reporting National Centre for Disease Control data. The Print, New Delhi, July 2025. Observation period 1 March to 24 June 2025.back
11Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 22 April 2026. Observation year 2025.back
12Ember (ed.), India: electricity data and analysis (country page). Ember, London, accessed 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
28A. Pandey, M. Brauer, M. L. Cropper et al., “Health and economic impact of air pollution in the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019,” The Lancet Planetary Health, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. e25–e38, 2021. doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30298-9. Observation year 2019. doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30298-9 back
34Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
33International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024.back

India 2026
Chapter 7

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables6 notesNR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE

7.1Questions for the operational series

A-01
How would a second deficient monsoon change groundwater stress and kharif output in the north-west plains?
INI-IND-WAT-01 · monsoon deficit and groundwater; first output: recharge and extraction baseline for three states.
A-02
How far can evening-peak balancing and fossil generation be reduced as solar grows?
INI-IND-ENE-02 · power-system balancing; first output: hourly generation and curtailment register.
A-03
How do public grain stocks and export policy buffer a short harvest?
INI-IND-FOO-03 · food buffers; first output: stock-and-policy table.
A-04
How would a Himalayan cloudburst and flood sequence cut roads, power and care together?
INI-IND-CLI-04 · mountain flood continuity; first output: dependency graph for one river valley.
A-05
Where do flood, lightning and heat losses fall on households and on public budgets?
INI-IND-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-state loss table.
A-06
How do heat and humidity load health and care in summer?
To be admitted when heat-health data are bound; first output: scoping note.
A-07
How do land-use change and fire affect ecosystems outside protected areas?
To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.
A-08
Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?
National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
ID	Object	Kind	Question	State
INI-IND-WAT-01	Monsoon deficit and groundwater baseline	Initiative	A-01	PROPOSED
INI-IND-ENE-02	Power-system balancing and fossil generation	Initiative	A-02	PROPOSED
INI-IND-FOO-03	Food buffers: stocks and export policy	Initiative	A-03	PROPOSED
INI-IND-CLI-04	Mountain flood continuity	Initiative	A-04	PROPOSED
INI-IND-FIN-05	Disaster protection gap	Initiative	A-05	PROPOSED
PRJ-IND-WAT-01a	Three-state recharge and extraction graph	Project	A-01	PROPOSED
MSN-IND-2027-01	Deficient-monsoon compound Universe mission	Mission	A-01	Candidate

7.3The pathway

India is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in India from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

01
One National Agenda
bounded national questions for the year
DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment
02
National Desk
coordination, records, routing and continuity
DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027
03
National Model
the country as a system of systems
v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut
04
National Portfolio
risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions
7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment
05
Foundry
continuous computational environment
PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-IND-2027-Q1
06
Reports
quarterly and annual publication
BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda
07
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027
08
Evidence and correction
after-action, correction and renewal
OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

01
Mandate
02
Core Build · 1 month
03
Action · 1 week
04
Evidence seal
05
Portfolio correction
06
Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
Item	Record	State	Timing
F1	Annual mandate record	PLANNED	after the Q2 2027 alignment
F2	Core Build record	PLANNED	one month before the exercise
F3	Exercise evidence	PLANNED	during the Action week
F4	Decision packets	PLANNED	exercise state only
F5	Proof receipts	PLANNED	scoped to each recorded check
F6	After-action report	PLANNED	within one quarter
F7	Upgrade docket	PLANNED	routed to the Portfolio
F8	Portfolio renewal	PLANNED	Q4 2027 annual edition
F9	Public synthesis	PLANNED	public-safe extracts only

Mission

ID: MSN-IND-2027-01 · Deficient-monsoon compound Universe mission
Role spine: Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors: to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
Finding	Routed to	Purpose	Class
CLI-001 · 2025 climate	public record	reference for the 2027 series	PUBLIC
CLI-002 · 2026 monsoon	INI-IND-WAT-01	monsoon deficit baseline	PUBLIC
ENE-006 · capacity	INI-IND-ENE-02	power-system balancing	PUBLIC
CLI-003 · extreme-weather deaths	INI-IND-CLI-04	mountain flood continuity	PUBLIC
WAT-004 · groundwater	INI-IND-WAT-01	three-state graph	PUBLIC
FOO-009 · foodgrain	INI-IND-FOO-03	food buffers	PUBLIC
HLT-010 · heat counts	INI-IND-FIN-05 · key F review	protection gap and heat series	PUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathway	MSN-IND-2027-01	Universe candidate	CONSORTIUM

Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
Class	Where it goes	Who can see it
PUBLIC	the published edition and its evidence bundle	anyone
CONSORTIUM	governed rooms of the national pathway	consortium members under agreement
CONTROLLED	need-to-know channels	named competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
Feed	Producer	Latency	Feeds into
Weather, climate and monsoon statements	India Meteorological Department	daily to annual	CLI findings
Groundwater resource assessment	Central Ground Water Board	annual	WAT-004
Reservoir storage bulletin	Central Water Commission	weekly	WAT findings
Installed capacity and generation	Ministry of New and Renewable Energy · Central Electricity Authority	monthly	ENE-006 · ENE-007
Crop production estimates	Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare	four a year	FOO-009
Forest survey	Forest Survey of India	every two years	BIO-011
Census results	Registrar General and Census Commissioner	decennial	population findings

Escalation routes

none · keep monitoring
research question
project
risk object
quarterly publication
signal report

Table 7.6Signals at baseline
ID	Signal	Corroboration	Systems	Route
SIG-IND-001	A deficient 2026 monsoon after a record foodgrain estimate for 2025–26¹⁶¹⁹	CORROBORATED	CLI · FOO	risk object RSK-IND-CLI-001
SIG-IND-002	Fossil generation fell while capacity grew in 2025¹¹¹²	CORROBORATED	ENE · CLI	initiative A-02
SIG-IND-003	Official and media heat-death counts differ widely²¹²²	CORROBORATED	HLT · CLI	research question A-06

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

16India Meteorological Department (ed.), Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, 30 September 2026. Observation year 2026.back
19Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (ed.), Third Advance Estimates of Production of Major Crops for 2025–26, released 27 May 2026. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, New Delhi. Observation year 2025–26.back
11Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 22 April 2026. Observation year 2025.back
12Ember (ed.), India: electricity data and analysis (country page). Ember, London, accessed 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
21HeatWatch (ed.), Struck by Heat: A News Analysis of Heatstroke Deaths in India in 2025, as reported by The Print. New Delhi, 22 August 2025. Observation period February to July 2025.back
22Press Trust of India (ed.), “India recorded over 7,000 suspected heatstroke cases, 14 deaths in March–June period: RTI,” reporting National Centre for Disease Control data. The Print, New Delhi, July 2025. Observation period 1 March to 24 June 2025.back

India 2026
Chapter 8

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables17 notesNR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Groundwater extraction stands at 60.63% of the extractable resource, and the 2026 monsoon delivered 87% of its average, so the stock is asked to carry the shortfall.

60.63%

stage of extraction, 2025¹⁸

730units

over-exploited of 6,762, 2025¹⁸

≈1,014m³

renewable internal freshwater per person, 2022³

Table 8.1State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Extraction	247.22 BCM against 407.75 BCM extractable; recharge 448.52 BCM	¹⁸	Reported
Hotspots	stage of extraction 156.36% in Punjab, 147.11% in Rajasthan, 136.75% in Haryana	¹⁸	Reported
Trend	stage of extraction fell from 63.33% in 2017 to 60.63% in 2025	¹⁸	Reported
Per-person supply	about 1,014 m³ of renewable internal freshwater in 2022	³	Reported
National storage	national reservoir series not retrieved	Central Water Commission⁴⁵	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

CLI → WAT rainfall and recharge
WAT → FOO irrigation and crops
ENE → WAT pumping load
WAT → HLT drinking water

Evidence to bind in 2027

national reservoir storage
well-level abstraction data

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Non-fossil sources are 54% of installed capacity, yet fossil fuels still supplied about 73% of electricity in 2025, so capacity and generation tell different stories.

300.50GW

non-fossil capacity, 31 July 2026⁹

−3.3%

change in fossil generation, 2025¹¹

36.0% of energy use

net energy imports, 2024³

Table 8.2State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Capacity	about 552 GW installed; solar 164.59 GW, wind 58.14 GW, hydro 57.24 GW, bio-power 11.75 GW, nuclear 8.78 GW	⁹¹⁰	Reported
Additions	55.29 GW of non-fossil capacity added in 2025–26, of which 44.6 GW solar and 6 GW wind	⁹	Reported
Generation	renewables up 98 TWh in 2025; solar 196 TWh, 9.4% of demand; fossil about 73%	¹¹¹²	Reported
Coal	coal generation fell 2.9% in 2025; share of generation not bound to one source	¹²	NOT BOUND
Imports	net energy imports 36.0% of energy use in 2024	³	Reported

Couplings into other systems

TRD → ENE fuel imports
ENE → WAT pumping and cooling
CLI → ENE heat demand and hydropower
ENE → FOO irrigation power

Evidence to bind in 2027

coal share of generation on one source
storage and flexible capacity

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

The 2025–26 foodgrain estimate is a record, so the food system met the deficient 2026 monsoon from a position of high output, and the effects of 2026 are not yet bound.

376.563Mt

foodgrain, third advance estimate 2025–26¹⁹

120.657Mt

wheat, 2025–26¹⁹

154.024Mt

rice, 2025–26¹⁹

Table 8.3State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Total	376.563 Mt against 357.732 Mt in 2024–25, up about 5.3%	¹⁹	Reported
Wheat	120.657 Mt estimated; FAO reports a record 117.9 Mt in 2025	¹⁹²⁰	Reported
Trade policy	wheat export ban in place since May 2022; rice exports forecast at 23.6 Mt for 2026	²⁰	Reported
Kharif 2026	production after the deficient monsoon not bound	Ministry of Agriculture	NOT BOUND
Stocks	public grain stock depth not retrieved	Food Corporation of India	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

WAT → FOO irrigation
CLI → FOO monsoon and heat
ENE → FOO irrigation power
FOO → FIN household budgets

Evidence to bind in 2027

kharif 2026 production
public stock depth

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

India has a large population in which 7.4% are aged 65 or over, and no consistent national heat-death series was available at evidence close.

72.2years

life expectancy, 2024²

7.4%

aged 65 or over, 2025²

139.3per 100,000

air-pollution mortality, age-standardised, 2019⁴

Table 8.4State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Life expectancy	72.2 years in 2024	²	Reported
Ageing	7.4% of the population aged 65 or over in 2025	²	Reported
Air pollution	age-standardised mortality of 139.3 per 100,000 in 2019; state-level burden in the GBD 2019 study	⁴²⁸	Reported
Heat deaths	14 confirmed by NCDC, 1 March to 24 June 2025; at least 84 in a media review, February to July 2025	²¹²²	Reported
Heat deaths, national total	one reproducible national series not bound	NCDC · state health departments	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

CLI → HLT heat
WAT → HLT drinking water
ENE → HLT cooling and power
CLI → HLT floods and injury

Evidence to bind in 2027

heat deaths
current air-pollution burden

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Forest covered 24.4% of land in 2024 and 7.7% of land was under terrestrial protection, but the condition of ecosystems outside protected areas is not bound here.

24.4% of land

forest area, 2024³

7.7% of land

terrestrial protected area, 2024³

46.2% of farmland

agricultural land irrigated, 2024³

Table 8.5State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Forest	24.4% of land area in 2024 on the World Bank series	³	Reported
Protection	7.7% of land area under terrestrial protection in 2024	³	Reported
Irrigation	46.2% of agricultural land irrigated in 2024	³	Reported
Survey cover	forest and tree cover on the national survey definition not read	Forest Survey of India⁴⁴	NOT BOUND
Condition	not bound outside protected areas	n/a	Expert input

Couplings into other systems

BIO → WAT forest and watershed regulation
BIO → FOO pollination and soils
CLI → BIO drought and fire

Evidence to bind in 2027

forest and tree cover on the national definition
condition outside protected areas

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

18Central Ground Water Board and Ministry of Jal Shakti (eds.), Dynamic Ground Water Resources Assessment of India 2025, as summarised by Vision IAS. New Delhi, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, net energy imports (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), renewable internal freshwater per person (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and irrigated agricultural land (AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2022–2024.back
45Central Water Commission (ed.), Reservoir Storage Bulletin (weekly). CWC, New Delhi, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
9Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (ed.), installed non-fossil power capacity at 31 July 2026, as reported by Renewable Watch. New Delhi, 11 August 2026. Observation date 31 July 2026.back
11Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 22 April 2026. Observation year 2025.back
10Government of India (ed.), power-capacity factsheet of 13 August 2026, as reported by the Indo-Asian News Service. New Delhi, 13 August 2026. Observation date July 2026.back
12Ember (ed.), India: electricity data and analysis (country page). Ember, London, accessed 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
41Central Electricity Authority (ed.), National Electricity Plan, Volume I: Generation. CEA, New Delhi, 2023. Observation year 2022.back
19Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (ed.), Third Advance Estimates of Production of Major Crops for 2025–26, released 27 May 2026. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, New Delhi. Observation year 2025–26.back
20Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: India. FAO, Rome, reference date 13 February 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, GDP in current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN) and population aged 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025.back
4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, CO2 emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5) and mortality attributed to household and ambient air pollution (SH.STA.AIRP.P5). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2019 and 2024.back
28A. Pandey, M. Brauer, M. L. Cropper et al., “Health and economic impact of air pollution in the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019,” The Lancet Planetary Health, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. e25–e38, 2021. doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30298-9. Observation year 2019. doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30298-9 back
21HeatWatch (ed.), Struck by Heat: A News Analysis of Heatstroke Deaths in India in 2025, as reported by The Print. New Delhi, 22 August 2025. Observation period February to July 2025.back
22Press Trust of India (ed.), “India recorded over 7,000 suspected heatstroke cases, 14 deaths in March–June period: RTI,” reporting National Centre for Disease Control data. The Print, New Delhi, July 2025. Observation period 1 March to 24 June 2025.back
44Forest Survey of India (ed.), India State of Forest Report 2023. FSI, Dehradun, December 2024. Observation year 2023.back
31Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back

India 2026
Annex A

Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

9 min read0 figures12 tables4 notesNR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Non-fossil share of installed capacity, 31 July 2026	300.50 ÷ 552	≈ 54.4%
(2)	Groundwater stage of extraction, 2025	247.22 ÷ 407.75	60.63%
(3)	Monsoon 2026 deficit against the long period average	868.6 − 759.4	109.2 mm
(4)	Growth in foodgrain estimate, 2025–26 on 2024–25	376.563 ÷ 357.732 − 1	≈ 5.3%

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID: MDL-IND-NATIONAL · v0.1
Purpose: represent India as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: national scale; not for state or asset-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

9strong

documented within one season

7moderate

documented, buffered

4weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID: NQ-IND-2026-Q0-1
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 52 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: NQ-IND-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
Element	Baseline 2026	Q1 2027
Sources	cited publications, pinned by edition	qualified source bindings with versions
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	National Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to the cut
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Emissions inventory	2020	Dec 2024	biennial	biennial
Annual climate statement	2025	Jan 2026	annual	annual
Monsoon season summary	2026	Sep 2026	annual	annual
Groundwater assessment	2025	Dec 2025	annual	annual
Installed power capacity	31 Jul 2026	Aug 2026	monthly	monthly
Foodgrain estimate	2025–26	May 2026	four a year	four a year
World Bank population	2025	Oct 2026	annual	annual
Heat-death reports	2025	Jul and Aug 2025	one-off	ad hoc
Air-pollution mortality	2019	Oct 2026	irregular	irregular

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Climate forcing	GOOD	heat deaths; sub-state extremes
Energy	GOOD	hourly balancing; coal share of generation
Food	PARTIAL	kharif 2026 outcome; stock depth
Health	THIN	heat deaths; current air-pollution burden
Water	PARTIAL	national reservoir series; basin balances
Biodiversity	PARTIAL	condition outside protected areas
Hazard losses	THIN	insured and uninsured losses
Digital	THIN	dependency mapping

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Prepared by the Government of India as its fourth biennial update report to the UNFCCC, submitted at the end of 2024. Calendar-year basis. Role: binds CLI-008 and the sector figures. The report was read through press reports of its figures, because the primary document was not opened.

EVD-IND-001

Emissions inventory 2020⁵

Issued by the India Meteorological Department on 1 January 2026. Annual. Role: binds CLI-001 and CLI-003. Death counts are compiled from media and disaster-authority reports.

EVD-IND-002

Annual climate statement 2025¹⁴

Table A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-IND-001	EVD-IND-002
Completeness	all gases by sector; land use as a net sink	temperature, rain, cyclones; deaths from reports
Timeliness	four years after the inventory year	one day after the year end
Revision	back-revised in later reports	one-off annual release
Method transparency	published methodology	base periods stated
External validation	not bound in this edition	not bound in this edition

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

Emissions inventory after 2020⁵: the next biennial update report
Forest Survey of India⁴⁴: forest and tree cover on one definition
Central Water Commission⁴⁵: national reservoir storage
National Centre for Disease Control: a heat-death series

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.8Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.9The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.10Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
BCM	billion cubic metres
BUR	biennial update report
CEA	Central Electricity Authority
CGWB	Central Ground Water Board
CWC	Central Water Commission
FSI	Forest Survey of India
GIEWS	Global Information and Early Warning System, FAO
IMD	India Meteorological Department
LPA	long period average
LULUCF	land use, land-use change and forestry
MNRE	Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
NCDC	National Centre for Disease Control
NDC	nationally determined contribution
NDMA	National Disaster Management Authority
ORGI	Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner
WDI	World Development Indicators, World Bank

A.10Technical annex

Table A.12Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the baseline indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-IND-MON-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	Q1 2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	Q2 2027
A.7	State notes	atlas cards for every state	Q2 2027
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition, net greenhouse-gas emissions

Construct: annual emissions minus land-use removals
Unit: Mt CO₂e
Scope: calendar year
Source: fourth biennial update report⁵
Revision: back-revised in later reports
Known limits: the 2020 total used here excludes land use; the net figure of 2,437 Mt is read through press reports

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

5Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Fourth Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, including the 2020 national greenhouse-gas inventory. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted 30 December 2024. Observation year 2020.back
14India Meteorological Department (ed.), Statement on the Climate of India during 2025. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, press release of 1 January 2026, published by the World Meteorological Organization 12 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
44Forest Survey of India (ed.), India State of Forest Report 2023. FSI, Dehradun, December 2024. Observation year 2023.back
45Central Water Commission (ed.), Reservoir Storage Bulletin (weekly). CWC, New Delhi, 2026. Observation year 2026.back

India 2026
Annex B

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

11 min read0 figures7 tables28 notesNR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Baseline indicator set
Indicator	Value	Unit	Year	State	Source
Population	1,463,865,525	people	2025	Reported	¹
Urban population share	35.7	%	2025	Reported	¹
Gross domestic product, current prices	3,956	USD billion	2025	Reported	²
Life expectancy at birth	72.2	years	2024	Reported	²
Population aged 65 or over	7.4	%	2025	Reported	²
Net energy imports	36.0	% of energy use	2024	Reported	³
Forest area	24.4	% of land	2024	Reported	³
Terrestrial protected area	7.7	% of land	2024	Reported	³
CO₂ emissions excluding land use	3,154	Mt	2024	Reported	⁴
GHG emissions excluding land use	2,959	Mt CO₂e	2020	Reported	⁵
Energy-sector emissions	2,238	Mt CO₂e	2020	Reported	⁵
Non-fossil installed capacity	300.50	GW	31 Jul 2026	Reported	⁹
Fossil share of generation	≈73	%	2025	Reported	¹²
Annual mean temperature anomaly	+0.28	°C vs 1991–2020	2025	Reported	¹⁴
Monsoon rainfall, all India	87	% of LPA	2026	Reported	¹⁶
Groundwater stage of extraction	60.63	%	2025	Reported	¹⁸
Foodgrain production, third advance estimate	376.563	Mt	2025–26	Reported	¹⁹
Extreme-weather deaths	≈2,760	deaths	2025	Reported	¹⁴
CO₂ per person (derived)	≈2.2	t CO₂	2024	Estimated	⁴¹
Heat deaths, national season total	Not bound	deaths	n/a	NOT BOUND	NCDC · state health departments
GHG inventory after 2020	Not bound	Mt CO₂e	n/a	NOT BOUND	next biennial update report⁵
National reservoir storage	Not bound	% of live capacity	n/a	NOT BOUND	Central Water Commission⁴⁵
Insured disaster losses	Not bound	USD	n/a	NOT BOUND	IRDAI · general insurers

Indicators, CSV Indicators, JSON

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

Table B.3National source register
Source	Category	Coverage	Period	Cadence	Role
Emissions inventory, 2020⁵	government report to the UNFCCC, read through press	national	2020	biennial	CLI
Climate and monsoon statements¹⁴¹⁶	national technical authority	national	2025–2026	annual	CLI
Groundwater assessment¹⁸	national board, read through a press summary	blocks and states	2025	annual	WAT
Power capacity⁹¹⁰	ministry data, via press	national	2026	monthly	ENE
Electricity review¹¹¹²¹³	independent analyst	national	2025	annual	ENE
Crop estimates¹⁹²⁰	ministry · FAO	national	2025–2026	four a year	FOO
Heat-death reports²¹²²	non-profit review · press report of RTI data	national	2025	one-off	HLT
World Bank indicators¹²³⁴	international organisation	national	2019–2025	annual	profile
Climate contribution⁶⁷	government · independent assessment	national	2026	periodic	CLI
Census notices²³	Registrar General	national	2026	decennial	population
Peer-reviewed literature²⁴²⁵²⁶²⁷²⁸	journals	regional	2009–2021	one-off	WAT · CLI · HLT

B.3Regional reading, India by region

Map plates for every state follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

Rainfall geography, 2026 monsoon

36subdivisions

meteorological subdivisions, 2026¹⁶

17subdivisions

deficient in the 2026 season¹⁶

741districts

meteorological districts, 2026¹⁶

282districts

below-normal rainfall in 2026¹⁶

Table B.4Regional reading, India by region
Region	Principal hazards	Systems most exposed	Baseline evidence
Northwest India	groundwater depletion; heat; floods	wheat and rice, water, power for pumping	Punjab floods 2025¹⁵ · extraction stage¹⁸
Central India	monsoon variability; lightning	rain-fed crops, power demand	June 2026 at 50% of average¹⁶ · lightning deaths¹⁴
East and Northeast India	cyclones; floods; the lowest 2026 season since 1901	rice, ports, hydropower	season 2026¹⁶ · Cyclone Montha 2025¹⁴
South Peninsula	cyclones; groundwater stress; deficient 2026 season	rice, cities, coasts	season 2026 at 76%¹⁶ · Cyclone Ditwah 2025¹⁴
Himalaya and foothills	cloudbursts; landslides; glacier and snow change	roads, hydropower, settlements	Kishtwar and Kheer Ganga cloudbursts 2025¹⁴ · assessment⁴⁸
Coasts and deltas	cyclones; sea-level rise; flooding	ports, aquaculture, cities	four cyclonic storms in 2025¹⁴

B.4Atlas card, Punjab and Haryana plains

plains
cereal basin
groundwater
flood

Systems in view: water, food and power for irrigation
Defining events: extraction above 100% of the extractable resource; floods of 2025¹⁵¹⁸
Couplings: CLI → WAT → FOO; ENE → WAT
Capability evidence: not bound
Gaps: well-level extraction and power-subsidy data; crop-water use
Agenda items: A-01 · A-03

The stage of extraction was 156.36% in Punjab and 136.75% in Haryana in 2025. The resource is being drawn faster than it recharges in those states [18].

WATER

Extraction above the resource

The national foodgrain estimate for 2025–26 is a record [19]. The share from these plains is not bound in this edition.

FOOD

A record national estimate

Punjab had its worst floods since 1988 in 2025 [15]. The weather service reported 59 rain-related deaths in Punjab [14].

HAZARD

Floods in a deficient year for others

B.5India system card

The card through which India appears in the South Asia regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Table B.5India system card
System	Baseline state	Coupling to watch	Coverage
Water	groundwater extraction at 60.63%	monsoon deficit and over-extraction	PARTIAL
Energy	non-fossil 54% of capacity	evening peak and fossil generation	GOOD
Food	record foodgrain estimate for 2025–26	short harvest after 2026 monsoon	PARTIAL
Health	life expectancy 72.2 years; heat data not bound	heat and air pollution	THIN
Biodiversity	forest 24.4% of land; 7.7% protected	fire and land-use change	PARTIAL

Context

Archetype: very large economy with a monsoon-dependent water and food system and a fast-growing clean power fleet (Nexus reading)
Population: 1,463.9 million (2025)¹
Trade: net energy imports 36.0% of energy use³
Hazard: about 2,760 extreme-weather deaths in 2025¹⁴

India’s card sits beside its neighbours’; shared basins, grids, corridors and supply chains are read as one regional system.

SOUTH ASIA REGIONAL EDITION

One regional system

Indian evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers, so a correction travels everywhere at once.

GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES

Same findings, same IDs

In the global edition India is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

GLOBAL FLAGSHIP

Peers, not ranks

B.6Licences

Table B.6Licences of each kind of material
Material	Licence
Text	CC BY 4.0
Data	on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
Figures	Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Maps	boundary source and licence printed on each plate
Metadata	CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and text	The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.7This edition in every format
Format	Kind	State	What it is	Identifier
Web edition	HTML	On this site	Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.	NR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print edition	PDF	At release	A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.	NR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator data	CSV · JSON	On this site	23 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.	NR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE data release v1
Figures	SVG · PNG	On this site	4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.	FIG-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-*
Slides	PDF	Not recorded	No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence brief	HTML · PDF	Not recorded	No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOI	DataCite	At release	Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack: The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut: NQ-IND-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility: sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check: 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review: five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record: GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections: Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, population, total (SP.POP.TOTL) and urban population share (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2025.back
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, GDP in current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN) and population aged 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025.back
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, net energy imports (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), renewable internal freshwater per person (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and irrigated agricultural land (AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2022–2024.back
4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, CO2 emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5) and mortality attributed to household and ambient air pollution (SH.STA.AIRP.P5). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2019 and 2024.back
5Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Fourth Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, including the 2020 national greenhouse-gas inventory. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted 30 December 2024. Observation year 2020.back
9Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (ed.), installed non-fossil power capacity at 31 July 2026, as reported by Renewable Watch. New Delhi, 11 August 2026. Observation date 31 July 2026.back
12Ember (ed.), India: electricity data and analysis (country page). Ember, London, accessed 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
14India Meteorological Department (ed.), Statement on the Climate of India during 2025. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, press release of 1 January 2026, published by the World Meteorological Organization 12 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
16India Meteorological Department (ed.), Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, 30 September 2026. Observation year 2026.back
18Central Ground Water Board and Ministry of Jal Shakti (eds.), Dynamic Ground Water Resources Assessment of India 2025, as summarised by Vision IAS. New Delhi, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
19Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (ed.), Third Advance Estimates of Production of Major Crops for 2025–26, released 27 May 2026. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, New Delhi. Observation year 2025–26.back
45Central Water Commission (ed.), Reservoir Storage Bulletin (weekly). CWC, New Delhi, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
10Government of India (ed.), power-capacity factsheet of 13 August 2026, as reported by the Indo-Asian News Service. New Delhi, 13 August 2026. Observation date July 2026.back
11Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 22 April 2026. Observation year 2025.back
13pv magazine (ed.), “Record solar, wind surge drives 3.3% drop in India’s fossil generation in 2025,” reporting Ember’s Global Electricity Review 2026. pv magazine, Berlin, 27 April 2026. Observation year 2025.back
20Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: India. FAO, Rome, reference date 13 February 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
21HeatWatch (ed.), Struck by Heat: A News Analysis of Heatstroke Deaths in India in 2025, as reported by The Print. New Delhi, 22 August 2025. Observation period February to July 2025.back
22Press Trust of India (ed.), “India recorded over 7,000 suspected heatstroke cases, 14 deaths in March–June period: RTI,” reporting National Centre for Disease Control data. The Print, New Delhi, July 2025. Observation period 1 March to 24 June 2025.back
6Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Nationally Determined Contribution for 2031–2035. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 24 April 2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), India: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, September 2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
23Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India (ed.), Census 2027: houselisting and population enumeration notices. Ministry of Home Affairs, New Delhi, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
24M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238. Observation year 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238 back
25A. Asoka, T. Gleeson, Y. Wada and V. Mishra, “Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 10, pp. 109–117, 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869 back
26M. K. Roxy, S. Ghosh, A. Pathak et al., “A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India,” Nature Communications, vol. 8, article 708, 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9 back
27E.-S. Im, J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia,” Science Advances, vol. 3, no. 8, e1603322, 2017. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1603322. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1603322 back
28A. Pandey, M. Brauer, M. L. Cropper et al., “Health and economic impact of air pollution in the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019,” The Lancet Planetary Health, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. e25–e38, 2021. doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30298-9. Observation year 2019. doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30298-9 back
15Down To Earth (ed.), “2025 marked by rising night-time temperatures and extreme rainfall across seasons in India.” Centre for Science and Environment, New Delhi, January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
48International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ed.), Water, Ice, Society, and Ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: An Outlook. ICIMOD, Kathmandu, 2023. Observation year 2023.back

India 2026
Annex C

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

13 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE

C.152 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, population, total (SP.POP.TOTL) and urban population share (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, GDP in current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN) and population aged 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, net energy imports (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), renewable internal freshwater per person (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and irrigated agricultural land (AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2022–2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, CO2 emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5) and mortality attributed to household and ambient air pollution (SH.STA.AIRP.P5). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2019 and 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 8
5Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Fourth Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, including the 2020 national greenhouse-gas inventory. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted 30 December 2024. Observation year 2020. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
6Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Nationally Determined Contribution for 2031–2035. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 24 April 2026. Observation year 2035 target. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), India: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, September 2026. Observation year 2035 target. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
8Government of India (ed.), India’s Updated First Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement. UNFCCC, Bonn, August 2022. Observation year 2030 target. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
9Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (ed.), installed non-fossil power capacity at 31 July 2026, as reported by Renewable Watch. New Delhi, 11 August 2026. Observation date 31 July 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
10Government of India (ed.), power-capacity factsheet of 13 August 2026, as reported by the Indo-Asian News Service. New Delhi, 13 August 2026. Observation date July 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
11Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 22 April 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
12Ember (ed.), India: electricity data and analysis (country page). Ember, London, accessed 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
13pv magazine (ed.), “Record solar, wind surge drives 3.3% drop in India’s fossil generation in 2025,” reporting Ember’s Global Electricity Review 2026. pv magazine, Berlin, 27 April 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 2
14India Meteorological Department (ed.), Statement on the Climate of India during 2025. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, press release of 1 January 2026, published by the World Meteorological Organization 12 January 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
15Down To Earth (ed.), “2025 marked by rising night-time temperatures and extreme rainfall across seasons in India.” Centre for Science and Environment, New Delhi, January 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1
16India Meteorological Department (ed.), Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, 30 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
17India Meteorological Department (ed.), Updated Long Range Forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall (June–September) and Monthly outlook for June month. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, May 2026. Observation year 2026. Cited in chapter 1
18Central Ground Water Board and Ministry of Jal Shakti (eds.), Dynamic Ground Water Resources Assessment of India 2025, as summarised by Vision IAS. New Delhi, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
19Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (ed.), Third Advance Estimates of Production of Major Crops for 2025–26, released 27 May 2026. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, New Delhi. Observation year 2025–26. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
20Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: India. FAO, Rome, reference date 13 February 2026. Observation years 2025–2026. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
21HeatWatch (ed.), Struck by Heat: A News Analysis of Heatstroke Deaths in India in 2025, as reported by The Print. New Delhi, 22 August 2025. Observation period February to July 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
22Press Trust of India (ed.), “India recorded over 7,000 suspected heatstroke cases, 14 deaths in March–June period: RTI,” reporting National Centre for Disease Control data. The Print, New Delhi, July 2025. Observation period 1 March to 24 June 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
23Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India (ed.), Census 2027: houselisting and population enumeration notices. Ministry of Home Affairs, New Delhi, 2026. Observation year 2026. Cited in chapter 6
24M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238. Observation year 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238 Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
25A. Asoka, T. Gleeson, Y. Wada and V. Mishra, “Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 10, pp. 109–117, 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869 Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
26M. K. Roxy, S. Ghosh, A. Pathak et al., “A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India,” Nature Communications, vol. 8, article 708, 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9 Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
27E.-S. Im, J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia,” Science Advances, vol. 3, no. 8, e1603322, 2017. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1603322. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1603322 Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
28A. Pandey, M. Brauer, M. L. Cropper et al., “Health and economic impact of air pollution in the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019,” The Lancet Planetary Health, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. e25–e38, 2021. doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30298-9. Observation year 2019. doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30298-9 Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
29H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 6
30UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
31Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
32UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
33International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 6
34Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 6
35P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
36J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Cited in chapter 6
37World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 6
38S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026.
39S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026.
40Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 14 November 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
41Central Electricity Authority (ed.), National Electricity Plan, Volume I: Generation. CEA, New Delhi, 2023. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
42National Disaster Management Authority (ed.), National Disaster Management Plan 2019. NDMA, New Delhi, 2019. Observation year 2019. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
43National Disaster Management Authority (ed.), Guidelines for Preparation of Action Plan: Prevention and Management of Heat Wave. NDMA, New Delhi, 2019. Observation year 2019. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
44Forest Survey of India (ed.), India State of Forest Report 2023. FSI, Dehradun, December 2024. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
45Central Water Commission (ed.), Reservoir Storage Bulletin (weekly). CWC, New Delhi, 2026. Observation year 2026. Cited in chapter 8
46NITI Aayog (ed.), Composite Water Management Index 2.0. NITI Aayog, New Delhi, 2019. Observation year 2018. Cited in chapter 6
47International Institute for Population Sciences and ICF (eds.), National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), 2019–21: India. IIPS, Mumbai, 2021. Observation years 2019–2021. Cited in chapter 6
48International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ed.), Water, Ice, Society, and Ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: An Outlook. ICIMOD, Kathmandu, 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 6
49World Bank (ed.), India: Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank, Washington DC, October 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 6
50Bureau of Indian Standards (ed.), IS 1893 (Part 1): 2016, Criteria for Earthquake Resistant Design of Structures. BIS, New Delhi, 2016. Observation year 2016. Cited in chapter 3
51United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 6
52Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India Cooling Action Plan. MoEFCC, New Delhi, 2019. Observation year 2019. Cited in chapter 3

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title: India Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series: Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition: Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version: v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close: 30 September 2026
Publication date: October 2026
DOI: concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place: Toronto
Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards: GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
Licence: text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Language: English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence: Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format: A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces: Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard: Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility: tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production: Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
Step	What happens	When
Draft	editorial self-check complete at evidence close	October 2026
Steward review	five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)	Q4 2026
Approval	publication authority approves the exact digest	before release
Deposit	concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set	at release
Succession	the Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baseline	Q1 2027

Current version: v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition: none, first edition of the series
Next edition: NR-COUNTRY-IND-2027-Q1-v1.0.0

Latest version: resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route: Registry correction pathway
Notice types: erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

Edition	Version	Date	State	Change	Notice
IND	NR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0	October 2026	Draft	Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,	None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias: NR-NAT-IND-2026-BL
Collection: None
DOI: Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions: Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle: RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID: Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR: Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account: None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for India; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
IND edition Reports India 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; IND is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

Handoff	Between	What crosses, and when
F03	Foundry to Reports	Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04	Universe to Reports	After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05	Foundry to Reports	National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Ring	Nexus Standards to Reports	Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06	Reports to Nexus Standards	Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12	Reports to Universe	Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Ring	Reports to Risk Academy	Risk Academy: taught in the open.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

S.3Headline finding

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

What it is not

What comes next

Notes

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

In this part

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

Transmission paths

1.4Reinforcing loops

Notes

2.1Headline finding

Implication

What would move it

2.2Climate forcing

2.3Water

2.4Energy

2.5Food

2.6Health

2.7Biodiversity

2.8Systemic

Notes

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

Groundwater extraction as a share of the extractable resource

Non-fossil sources in installed power capacity

Foodgrain production, third advance estimate

Life expectancy at birth

Terrestrial area under protection

Deaths from extreme weather events

3.2Domain posture

3.3Sector screens

Notes

4.1Risk objects

Multi-year monsoon deficit with groundwater stress

Cloudburst, flood and landslide sequence in the mountains and plains

Power-system balancing as solar share grows

Extreme heat and humidity

4.2Capability ladder

Notes

5.1Assumptions

5.2The cascade, step by step

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

Notes

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

6.2Three lenses

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

Standards drafts used in this edition

Standards calendar to watch

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

Publication dispositions

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Changed since 2024

To watch in 2027

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

Review protocol

Where the evidence agrees

Where it is unsettled

Notes

7.1Questions for the operational series