Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

13 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1India’s risk is monsoon-dependent, heat-loaded and changing fast in power
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A second deficient monsoon across groundwater, kharif output, power demand and food budgets
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 52 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.152 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, population, total (SP.POP.TOTL) and urban population share (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3
  2. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, GDP in current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN) and population aged 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  3. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, net energy imports (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), renewable internal freshwater per person (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and irrigated agricultural land (AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2022–2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  4. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, CO2 emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5) and mortality attributed to household and ambient air pollution (SH.STA.AIRP.P5). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2019 and 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 8
  5. 5Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Fourth Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, including the 2020 national greenhouse-gas inventory. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted 30 December 2024. Observation year 2020. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  6. 6Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Nationally Determined Contribution for 2031–2035. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 24 April 2026. Observation year 2035 target. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  7. 7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), India: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, September 2026. Observation year 2035 target. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  8. 8Government of India (ed.), India’s Updated First Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement. UNFCCC, Bonn, August 2022. Observation year 2030 target. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  9. 9Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (ed.), installed non-fossil power capacity at 31 July 2026, as reported by Renewable Watch. New Delhi, 11 August 2026. Observation date 31 July 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  10. 10Government of India (ed.), power-capacity factsheet of 13 August 2026, as reported by the Indo-Asian News Service. New Delhi, 13 August 2026. Observation date July 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 22 April 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  12. 12Ember (ed.), India: electricity data and analysis (country page). Ember, London, accessed 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  13. 13pv magazine (ed.), “Record solar, wind surge drives 3.3% drop in India’s fossil generation in 2025,” reporting Ember’s Global Electricity Review 2026. pv magazine, Berlin, 27 April 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 2
  14. 14India Meteorological Department (ed.), Statement on the Climate of India during 2025. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, press release of 1 January 2026, published by the World Meteorological Organization 12 January 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  15. 15Down To Earth (ed.), “2025 marked by rising night-time temperatures and extreme rainfall across seasons in India.” Centre for Science and Environment, New Delhi, January 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1
  16. 16India Meteorological Department (ed.), Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, 30 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
  17. 17India Meteorological Department (ed.), Updated Long Range Forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall (June–September) and Monthly outlook for June month. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, May 2026. Observation year 2026. Cited in chapter 1
  18. 18Central Ground Water Board and Ministry of Jal Shakti (eds.), Dynamic Ground Water Resources Assessment of India 2025, as summarised by Vision IAS. New Delhi, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (ed.), Third Advance Estimates of Production of Major Crops for 2025–26, released 27 May 2026. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, New Delhi. Observation year 2025–26. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  20. 20Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: India. FAO, Rome, reference date 13 February 2026. Observation years 2025–2026. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21HeatWatch (ed.), Struck by Heat: A News Analysis of Heatstroke Deaths in India in 2025, as reported by The Print. New Delhi, 22 August 2025. Observation period February to July 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  22. 22Press Trust of India (ed.), “India recorded over 7,000 suspected heatstroke cases, 14 deaths in March–June period: RTI,” reporting National Centre for Disease Control data. The Print, New Delhi, July 2025. Observation period 1 March to 24 June 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  23. 23Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India (ed.), Census 2027: houselisting and population enumeration notices. Ministry of Home Affairs, New Delhi, 2026. Observation year 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  24. 24M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238. Observation year 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238 Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  25. 25A. Asoka, T. Gleeson, Y. Wada and V. Mishra, “Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 10, pp. 109–117, 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869 Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  26. 26M. K. Roxy, S. Ghosh, A. Pathak et al., “A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India,” Nature Communications, vol. 8, article 708, 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9 Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  27. 27E.-S. Im, J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia,” Science Advances, vol. 3, no. 8, e1603322, 2017. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1603322. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1603322 Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
  28. 28A. Pandey, M. Brauer, M. L. Cropper et al., “Health and economic impact of air pollution in the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019,” The Lancet Planetary Health, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. e25–e38, 2021. doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30298-9. Observation year 2019. doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30298-9 Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  29. 29H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  30. 30UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  31. 31Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  32. 32UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026.
  39. 39S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026.
  40. 40Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 14 November 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  41. 41Central Electricity Authority (ed.), National Electricity Plan, Volume I: Generation. CEA, New Delhi, 2023. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  42. 42National Disaster Management Authority (ed.), National Disaster Management Plan 2019. NDMA, New Delhi, 2019. Observation year 2019. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  43. 43National Disaster Management Authority (ed.), Guidelines for Preparation of Action Plan: Prevention and Management of Heat Wave. NDMA, New Delhi, 2019. Observation year 2019. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  44. 44Forest Survey of India (ed.), India State of Forest Report 2023. FSI, Dehradun, December 2024. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
  45. 45Central Water Commission (ed.), Reservoir Storage Bulletin (weekly). CWC, New Delhi, 2026. Observation year 2026. Cited in chapter 8
  46. 46NITI Aayog (ed.), Composite Water Management Index 2.0. NITI Aayog, New Delhi, 2019. Observation year 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  47. 47International Institute for Population Sciences and ICF (eds.), National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), 2019–21: India. IIPS, Mumbai, 2021. Observation years 2019–2021. Cited in chapter 6
  48. 48International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ed.), Water, Ice, Society, and Ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: An Outlook. ICIMOD, Kathmandu, 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  49. 49World Bank (ed.), India: Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank, Washington DC, October 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  50. 50Bureau of Indian Standards (ed.), IS 1893 (Part 1): 2016, Criteria for Earthquake Resistant Design of Structures. BIS, New Delhi, 2016. Observation year 2016. Cited in chapter 3
  51. 51United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 6
  52. 52Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India Cooling Action Plan. MoEFCC, New Delhi, 2019. Observation year 2019. Cited in chapter 3

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
India Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-IND-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
INDNR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-NAT-IND-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. IND edition Reports India 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; IND is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In India Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of India’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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