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A second deficient monsoon across groundwater, kharif output, power demand and food budgets

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

3 min read0 figures0 tables5 notesNR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1India’s risk is monsoon-dependent, heat-loaded and changing fast in power
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A second deficient monsoon across groundwater, kharif output, power demand and food budgets
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-IND-MON-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a second southwest monsoon season near 87% of the long period average, as in 202616
Analogues
2026 season; groundwater stage of 202518; 2025–26 production estimate as the starting level19
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → WAT

    recharge falls and pumping rises in units already over-exploited

    202518

  2. 2

    WAT → FOO

    irrigation draws on falling groundwater; rain-fed output is exposed; no figure bound

    202616

  3. 3

    FOO → FIN

    food prices pass into household budgets; no figure bound

    not bound

  4. 4

    ENE → WAT

    pumping and cooling demand add load to the power system

    physical coupling

  5. 5

    CLI → HLT

    heat and water stress raise health and care demand

    20252122

  6. 6

    WAT → BIO

    drier soils and forests raise fire and stress on wetlands

    not bound

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-IND-MON-01 would travel through India’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to waterRecharge falls and pumping rises in units already over-exploited. Analogue or source: 2025 [18].Edition IND, scenario SCN-IND-MON-01, step 1
02 Water to foodIrrigation draws on falling groundwater; rain-fed output is exposed; no figure bound. Analogue or source: 2026 [16].Edition IND, scenario SCN-IND-MON-01, step 2
03 Food to financeFood prices pass into household budgets; no figure bound. Analogue or source: not bound.Edition IND, scenario SCN-IND-MON-01, step 3
04 Energy to waterPumping and cooling demand add load to the power system. Analogue or source: physical coupling.Edition IND, scenario SCN-IND-MON-01, step 4
05 Climate to healthHeat and water stress raise health and care demand. Analogue or source: 2025 [21] [22].Edition IND, scenario SCN-IND-MON-01, step 5
06 Water to biodiversityDrier soils and forests raise fire and stress on wetlands. Analogue or source: not bound.Edition IND, scenario SCN-IND-MON-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: India 2026, scenario SCN-IND-MON-01 (2026); India 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 16India Meteorological Department (ed.), Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, 30 September 2026. Observation year 2026.back
  2. 18Central Ground Water Board and Ministry of Jal Shakti (eds.), Dynamic Ground Water Resources Assessment of India 2025, as summarised by Vision IAS. New Delhi, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  3. 19Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (ed.), Third Advance Estimates of Production of Major Crops for 2025–26, released 27 May 2026. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, New Delhi. Observation year 2025–26.back
  4. 21HeatWatch (ed.), Struck by Heat: A News Analysis of Heatstroke Deaths in India in 2025, as reported by The Print. New Delhi, 22 August 2025. Observation period February to July 2025.back
  5. 22Press Trust of India (ed.), “India recorded over 7,000 suspected heatstroke cases, 14 deaths in March–June period: RTI,” reporting National Centre for Disease Control data. The Print, New Delhi, July 2025. Observation period 1 March to 24 June 2025.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: A second deficient monsoon across groundwater, kharif output, power demand and food budgets. In India Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of India’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind India.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Water and Food

Water gives food irrigation (0.8): the strongest relations between the sectors this subject joins.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

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