South America Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of South America’s Interdependent Systems.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the South America baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. Brazil emitted 1,299.2 Mt and Argentina 374.3 Mt in 2024, excluding land use. Net bases with land use are not bound.⁶

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. Brazil: 59% to 67% below 2005 by 2035. Argentina: a net ceiling of 375 Mt for 2030 and 2035.¹⁹²⁰

   What are the targets?Reported

3. Low-carbon sources supplied 89% in Brazil and 42% in Argentina in 2025.¹³¹⁴

   How is electricity supplied?Reported

4. A 2,200 MW converter and gas pipelines through Bolivia link the members; flows are not bound.²⁷²⁸

   How exposed is supply across the border?Reported

5. The 2024 floods cost BRL 88.9 billion; one 2025 storm dropped about 400 mm in eight hours.¹⁶¹⁷

   How severe were recent floods and storms?Reported

6. The Negro River hit a 122-year low in 2024; the Paraná was at an 80-year low in 2021. Low-water series are not bound.²⁴²⁵

   How exposed are rivers to drought?Reported

7. Insured and uninsured loss series are not bound in this edition.¹⁶

   Who carries flood losses?Not bound

8. Low river levels, hydropower shortfall, gas demand and export logistics coinciding. SCN-SAM-DRY-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

About 400 mm of rain fell in eight hours on Bahía Blanca on 7 March 2025, against a previous daily record of 175 mm set in 1930.

A single storm can exceed a station record by more than twofold. Port, road, hospital and grain-export services in a coastal city then fail together, which makes flood response a question for several authorities at once¹⁷.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 13Ember (ed.), Brazil electricity country page (low-carbon share 89%, hydro 52%, wind and solar 27%, fossil 11% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 14Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity country page (low-carbon share 42%, wind and solar 16%, fossil 58% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 16Inter-American Development Bank, with ECLAC and the World Bank Group (eds.), Damage and loss assessment of the April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul (BRL 88.9 billion), as reported by Agência Brasil on 29 November 2024; the assessment itself was not opened. IDB, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 17NASA Earth Observatory (ed.), Bahía Blanca inundated (image of the day, 17 March 2025; about 400 mm in 8 hours on 7 March 2025, previous daily record 175 mm in 1930; page updated 31 January 2026). NASA, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 3World Bank (ed.), Forest area, % of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 19Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Brazil: targets (second NDC, 59% to 67% below 2005 by 2035, 850 to 1,050 Mt CO2e including land use, submitted 13 November 2024; page updated 30 June 2026). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 20Subsecretaría de Ambiente, Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Argentina presentó la tercera contribución determinada a nivel nacional (net emissions not above 375 Mt CO2e for 2030 and 2035, 3 November 2025). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hitachi Energy (ed.), Brazil-Argentina HVDC interconnection, Garabí converter station (2,200 MW back-to-back; 60 Hz and 50 Hz; first phase 2000, second phase 2002; flows mainly Brazil to Argentina per a World Bank case study); taken from search summaries. Hitachi Energy, Zurich. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Intelligence (ed.), Argentina’s piped gas exports to Brazil take step forward (first Vaca Muerta gas to Brazil through Bolivian pipelines, early 2026; 3 million m3 a day transit offer; taken from search summaries). Energy Intelligence, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press (ed.), Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years (Negro River at the port of Manaus 12.66 m, October 2024; the page opened returned not found). AP, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press and trade press (eds.), Drought hits South America river, threatening vast ecosystem (Paraná at its lowest level in nearly 80 years, 2021; reports of 77 and 80 years differ; Itaipú output). AP, New York, August 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 2World Bank (ed.), GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is South America’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks across member borders?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Member system cards
• Shared basins and grids
• Hub list
• Regional pathway
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The South America matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → WAT → ENE

   Drought lowers river levels and hydropower output and raises thermal generation.

   Inferred Negro River 2024²⁴; Paraná 2021²⁵

2. 02

   CLI → HLT

   Warm and wet spells raise dengue transmission and load health services.

   Reported dengue 2024¹⁸

3. 03

   TRD → ENE → FIN

   A change in gas routes reaches power prices and public budgets.

   Inferred Argentine exports via Bolivia²⁸; no volume bound

4. 04

   INF → ENE → all

   A fault or shortfall crosses the frequency converter.

   Inferred Garabí link²⁷; no event bound

5. 05

   CLI → INF → FIN

   Flooding damages lifelines and the loss falls on insurers and budgets.

   Inferred floods 2024¹⁶; loss series not bound

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2World Bank (ed.), GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 15World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025 (series page, published 18 May 2026, updated 12 June 2026; key messages only, the full report was not opened). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 16Inter-American Development Bank, with ECLAC and the World Bank Group (eds.), Damage and loss assessment of the April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul (BRL 88.9 billion), as reported by Agência Brasil on 29 November 2024; the assessment itself was not opened. IDB, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 17NASA Earth Observatory (ed.), Bahía Blanca inundated (image of the day, 17 March 2025; about 400 mm in 8 hours on 7 March 2025, previous daily record 175 mm in 1930; page updated 31 January 2026). NASA, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press (ed.), Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years (Negro River at the port of Manaus 12.66 m, October 2024; the page opened returned not found). AP, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 9World Bank (ed.), Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 8World Bank (ed.), People using safely managed drinking water services, % of population (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (no value returned for Argentina). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 13Ember (ed.), Brazil electricity country page (low-carbon share 89%, hydro 52%, wind and solar 27%, fossil 11% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 14Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity country page (low-carbon share 42%, wind and solar 16%, fossil 58% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hitachi Energy (ed.), Brazil-Argentina HVDC interconnection, Garabí converter station (2,200 MW back-to-back; 60 Hz and 50 Hz; first phase 2000, second phase 2002; flows mainly Brazil to Argentina per a World Bank case study); taken from search summaries. Hitachi Energy, Zurich. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Intelligence (ed.), Argentina’s piped gas exports to Brazil take step forward (first Vaca Muerta gas to Brazil through Bolivian pipelines, early 2026; 3 million m3 a day transit offer; taken from search summaries). Energy Intelligence, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty of Itaipú between Brazil and Paraguay on the hydroelectric use of the Paraná river, signed in 1973. Observation year 1973. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 5World Bank (ed.), Renewable electricity output, % of total electricity output (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (latest value returned is 2021). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press and trade press (eds.), Drought hits South America river, threatening vast ecosystem (Paraná at its lowest level in nearly 80 years, 2021; reports of 77 and 80 years differ; Itaipú output). AP, New York, August 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

About 400 mm of rain fell in eight hours on Bahía Blanca on 7 March 2025, against a previous daily record of 175 mm set in 1930.

Implication

A single storm can exceed a station record by more than twofold. Port, road, hospital and grain-export services in a coastal city then fail together, which makes flood response a question for several authorities at once¹⁷.

What would move it

Rainfall observations, flood-warning performance, the final casualty count and the insured-loss series would each move this finding. The final casualty count is not bound²⁹.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Brazil emitted 1,299.2 Mt CO₂e and Argentina 374.3 Mt in 2024, excluding land use; the two members together emitted 1,673.5 Mt.⁶

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   Brazil’s second pledge sets a 2035 range of 59% to 67% below 2005 (850 to 1,050 Mt CO₂e including land use); Argentina announced a net ceiling of 375 Mt CO₂e for 2030 and 2035.¹⁹²⁰

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006

   The April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul caused BRL 88.9 billion of damage and loss, as assessed by the Inter-American Development Bank with ECLAC and the World Bank Group.¹⁶

4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

   About 400 mm of rain fell in eight hours on Bahía Blanca on 7 March 2025, against a previous daily record of 175 mm set in 1930.¹⁷

2.3Energy

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

   Low-carbon sources supplied 89% of Brazil’s electricity in 2025 (hydro 52%, wind and solar 27%) and 42% of Argentina’s (wind and solar 16%, fossil 58%).¹³¹⁴

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

   In 2021 renewables supplied 46.5% of Brazil’s final energy and 9.2% of Argentina’s; the series reads 77.4% and 25.5% of electricity output for the same year.⁴⁵

3. ReportedEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005

   The Garabí back-to-back converter links the Brazilian 60 Hz and Argentine 50 Hz systems at a rated 2,200 MW, and flows have mainly run from Brazil to Argentina.²⁷

2.4Water

1. ReportedEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

   The Negro River at Manaus fell to 12.66 m in October 2024, its lowest level in 122 years of record, and the Paraná fell in 2021 to its lowest in nearly 80 years by press accounts.²⁴²⁵

2.5Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

   Agriculture, forestry and fishing supplied 6.1% of Brazil’s GDP and 5.5% of Argentina’s in 2025.¹¹

2.6Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010

   By 26 March 2024 the Americas had over 3.5 million dengue cases and over 1,000 deaths; Brazil accounted for 83% of cases, Paraguay 5.3% and Argentina 3.7%.¹⁸

2.7Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

   Forest covered 58.5% of Brazil and 17.1% of Argentina in 2024; protected areas covered 29.4% and 9.7% in 2025; PRODES put Amazon clearing at 5,796 km² for August 2024 to July 2025.³⁷²²

2.8Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought in the Paraná and Amazon basins in which low river levels, hydropower shortfall, gas demand and export logistics coincide. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 17NASA Earth Observatory (ed.), Bahía Blanca inundated (image of the day, 17 March 2025; about 400 mm in 8 hours on 7 March 2025, previous daily record 175 mm in 1930; page updated 31 January 2026). NASA, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Argentine and international press (eds.), Bahía Blanca floods of March 2025 (at least 16 deaths reported, counts rose over several days; no final official total read). Municipality of Bahía Blanca and press, March 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 6World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 19Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Brazil: targets (second NDC, 59% to 67% below 2005 by 2035, 850 to 1,050 Mt CO2e including land use, submitted 13 November 2024; page updated 30 June 2026). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 20Subsecretaría de Ambiente, Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Argentina presentó la tercera contribución determinada a nivel nacional (net emissions not above 375 Mt CO2e for 2030 and 2035, 3 November 2025). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 16Inter-American Development Bank, with ECLAC and the World Bank Group (eds.), Damage and loss assessment of the April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul (BRL 88.9 billion), as reported by Agência Brasil on 29 November 2024; the assessment itself was not opened. IDB, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 13Ember (ed.), Brazil electricity country page (low-carbon share 89%, hydro 52%, wind and solar 27%, fossil 11% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 14Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity country page (low-carbon share 42%, wind and solar 16%, fossil 58% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 4World Bank (ed.), Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (latest value returned is 2021). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 5World Bank (ed.), Renewable electricity output, % of total electricity output (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (latest value returned is 2021). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hitachi Energy (ed.), Brazil-Argentina HVDC interconnection, Garabí converter station (2,200 MW back-to-back; 60 Hz and 50 Hz; first phase 2000, second phase 2002; flows mainly Brazil to Argentina per a World Bank case study); taken from search summaries. Hitachi Energy, Zurich. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press (ed.), Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years (Negro River at the port of Manaus 12.66 m, October 2024; the page opened returned not found). AP, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press and trade press (eds.), Drought hits South America river, threatening vast ecosystem (Paraná at its lowest level in nearly 80 years, 2021; reports of 77 and 80 years differ; Itaipú output). AP, New York, August 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 11World Bank (ed.), Agriculture, forestry and fishing, value added, % of GDP (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 3World Bank (ed.), Forest area, % of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 7World Bank (ed.), Terrestrial and marine protected areas, % of total territorial area (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), PRODES estimate for the Legal Amazon, August 2024 to July 2025 (5,796 km2, 11.08% below the previous cycle; Cerrado 7,235 km2), announced 30 October 2025; taken from search summaries because the government page required authentication. INPE, São José dos Campos. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9World Bank (ed.), Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 13Ember (ed.), Brazil electricity country page (low-carbon share 89%, hydro 52%, wind and solar 27%, fossil 11% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 14Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity country page (low-carbon share 42%, wind and solar 16%, fossil 58% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 11World Bank (ed.), Agriculture, forestry and fishing, value added, % of GDP (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 3World Bank (ed.), Forest area, % of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 7World Bank (ed.), Terrestrial and marine protected areas, % of total territorial area (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 16Inter-American Development Bank, with ECLAC and the World Bank Group (eds.), Damage and loss assessment of the April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul (BRL 88.9 billion), as reported by Agência Brasil on 29 November 2024; the assessment itself was not opened. IDB, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press (ed.), Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years (Negro River at the port of Manaus 12.66 m, October 2024; the page opened returned not found). AP, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 17NASA Earth Observatory (ed.), Bahía Blanca inundated (image of the day, 17 March 2025; about 400 mm in 8 hours on 7 March 2025, previous daily record 175 mm in 1930; page updated 31 January 2026). NASA, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hitachi Energy (ed.), Brazil-Argentina HVDC interconnection, Garabí converter station (2,200 MW back-to-back; 60 Hz and 50 Hz; first phase 2000, second phase 2002; flows mainly Brazil to Argentina per a World Bank case study); taken from search summaries. Hitachi Energy, Zurich. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Intelligence (ed.), Argentina’s piped gas exports to Brazil take step forward (first Vaca Muerta gas to Brazil through Bolivian pipelines, early 2026; 3 million m3 a day transit offer; taken from search summaries). Energy Intelligence, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 8World Bank (ed.), People using safely managed drinking water services, % of population (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (no value returned for Argentina). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 19Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Brazil: targets (second NDC, 59% to 67% below 2005 by 2035, 850 to 1,050 Mt CO2e including land use, submitted 13 November 2024; page updated 30 June 2026). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 20Subsecretaría de Ambiente, Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Argentina presentó la tercera contribución determinada a nivel nacional (net emissions not above 375 Mt CO2e for 2030 and 2035, 3 November 2025). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 12World Bank (ed.), Urban population, % of total population (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 15World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025 (series page, published 18 May 2026, updated 12 June 2026; key messages only, the full report was not opened). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.187, de 29 de dezembro de 2009, institui a Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2009. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.520, Presupuestos mínimos de adaptación y mitigación al cambio climático global; Ley 27.287 on the national civil protection system is listed with it. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 26.331, Presupuestos mínimos de protección ambiental de los bosques nativos. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2007. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., “Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system,” Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555–564, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-SAM-CLI-001

   River flood and storm season

   Driver

   extreme rainfall on saturated catchments

   Exposure

   river corridors and coastal cities

   Vulnerability

   flood defences not bound

   Capacity

   civil protection systems exist in law⁴⁴; performance not bound

   Cascade

   CLI → INF, FIN, HLT

   Horizon

   annual

2. InferredEQL 3RSK-SAM-WAT-002

   Low flow on shared rivers in a dry year

   Driver

   low rainfall and high demand

   Exposure

   navigation, hydropower, farming

   Vulnerability

   dependence on a few river corridors

   Capacity

   basin treaty bodies exist³⁹⁴⁰; performance not bound

   Cascade

   WAT → ENE, FOO

   Horizon

   1–5 years

3. InferredEQL 3RSK-SAM-HLT-003

   Dengue epidemics under warm and wet conditions

   Driver

   heat, rainfall and vector range

   Exposure

   urban populations

   Vulnerability

   water storage and sanitation access

   Capacity

   health system capacity not bound¹⁸

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT

   Horizon

   seasonal

4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-SAM-ENE-004

   Hydropower shortfall and gas dependence in a dry year

   Driver

   drought, price spike or a link outage

   Exposure

   power, industry, heating

   Vulnerability

   reservoir levels and cross-border flows not bound

   Capacity

   binational plants and one converter²⁷⁴¹

   Cascade

   WAT → ENE → FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the regional level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.520, Presupuestos mínimos de adaptación y mitigación al cambio climático global; Ley 27.287 on the national civil protection system is listed with it. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty of the River Plate Basin (Tratado da Bacia do Prata), signed by the basin states in 1969. Observation year 1969. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Amazon Cooperation Treaty (Tratado de Cooperação Amazônica), signed by the Amazon basin states in 1978. Observation year 1978. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hitachi Energy (ed.), Brazil-Argentina HVDC interconnection, Garabí converter station (2,200 MW back-to-back; 60 Hz and 50 Hz; first phase 2000, second phase 2002; flows mainly Brazil to Argentina per a World Bank case study); taken from search summaries. Hitachi Energy, Zurich. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty of Itaipú between Brazil and Paraguay on the hydroelectric use of the Paraná river, signed in 1973. Observation year 1973. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 19Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Brazil: targets (second NDC, 59% to 67% below 2005 by 2035, 850 to 1,050 Mt CO2e including land use, submitted 13 November 2024; page updated 30 June 2026). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 20Subsecretaría de Ambiente, Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Argentina presentó la tercera contribución determinada a nivel nacional (net emissions not above 375 Mt CO2e for 2030 and 2035, 3 November 2025). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.187, de 29 de dezembro de 2009, institui a Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2009. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 15World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025 (series page, published 18 May 2026, updated 12 June 2026; key messages only, the full report was not opened). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 17NASA Earth Observatory (ed.), Bahía Blanca inundated (image of the day, 17 March 2025; about 400 mm in 8 hours on 7 March 2025, previous daily record 175 mm in 1930; page updated 31 January 2026). NASA, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 14.026, de 15 de julho de 2020, atualiza o marco legal do saneamento básico. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2020. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 16Inter-American Development Bank, with ECLAC and the World Bank Group (eds.), Damage and loss assessment of the April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul (BRL 88.9 billion), as reported by Agência Brasil on 29 November 2024; the assessment itself was not opened. IDB, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., “Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system,” Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555–564, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SAM-DRY-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a dry year with low flow on shared rivers, high power demand and delayed rains

Analogues

Negro River 2024²⁴; Paraná 2021²⁵; dengue in 2024¹⁸

Interventions

none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → WAT

   low flows cut navigation and hydropower on shared rivers

   rivers 2024 and 2021²⁴²⁵

2. 2

   WAT → ENE

   hydropower falls and gas demand rises

   no analogue bound

3. 3

   ENE → INF

   cross-border flows through one converter and Bolivian pipelines reach their limits

   links²⁷²⁸

4. 4

   WAT → FOO

   barge loads and export logistics fall

   Paraná 2021²⁵

5. 5

   CLI → HLT

   heat and delayed rains raise dengue risk

   dengue 2024¹⁸

6. 6

   FIN → recovery

   rebuilding slows where cover is thin

   loss series not bound

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SAM-DRY-01 would travel through South America’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: South America 2026, scenario SCN-SAM-DRY-01 (2026); South America 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press (ed.), Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years (Negro River at the port of Manaus 12.66 m, October 2024; the page opened returned not found). AP, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press and trade press (eds.), Drought hits South America river, threatening vast ecosystem (Paraná at its lowest level in nearly 80 years, 2021; reports of 77 and 80 years differ; Itaipú output). AP, New York, August 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hitachi Energy (ed.), Brazil-Argentina HVDC interconnection, Garabí converter station (2,200 MW back-to-back; 60 Hz and 50 Hz; first phase 2000, second phase 2002; flows mainly Brazil to Argentina per a World Bank case study); taken from search summaries. Hitachi Energy, Zurich. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Intelligence (ed.), Argentina’s piped gas exports to Brazil take step forward (first Vaca Muerta gas to Brazil through Bolivian pipelines, early 2026; 3 million m3 a day transit offer; taken from search summaries). Energy Intelligence, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for South America. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 regional cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• SUBMITTED
• UNDER REVIEW
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, regional and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about South America’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks across its member countries?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; regional and international assessments; official releases; statutory instruments

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty of the River Plate Basin (Tratado da Bacia do Prata), signed by the basin states in 1969. Observation year 1969. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Amazon Cooperation Treaty (Tratado de Cooperação Amazônica), signed by the Amazon basin states in 1978. Observation year 1978. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty of Itaipú between Brazil and Paraguay on the hydroelectric use of the Paraná river, signed in 1973. Observation year 1973. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 21F. Sindico, in M. Fitzmaurice, A. Tanzi and A. Papantoniou (eds.), The Guarani Aquifer Agreement 2010, in Multilateral Environmental Treaties, Elgar Encyclopedia of Environmental Law. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2017, pp. 299–310 (catalogue page opened; parties Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.187, de 29 de dezembro de 2009, institui a Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2009. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.520, Presupuestos mínimos de adaptación y mitigación al cambio climático global; Ley 27.287 on the national civil protection system is listed with it. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 26.331, Presupuestos mínimos de protección ambiental de los bosques nativos. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2007. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 19Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Brazil: targets (second NDC, 59% to 67% below 2005 by 2035, 850 to 1,050 Mt CO2e including land use, submitted 13 November 2024; page updated 30 June 2026). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 20Subsecretaría de Ambiente, Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Argentina presentó la tercera contribución determinada a nivel nacional (net emissions not above 375 Mt CO2e for 2030 and 2035, 3 November 2025). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Intelligence (ed.), Argentina’s piped gas exports to Brazil take step forward (first Vaca Muerta gas to Brazil through Bolivian pipelines, early 2026; 3 million m3 a day transit offer; taken from search summaries). Energy Intelligence, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Argentina: targets and 2035 NDC (states the 2035 target had not been submitted to the UNFCCC as of June 2026; taken from search summaries). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 15.042, de 11 de dezembro de 2024, institui o Sistema Brasileiro de Comércio de Emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.191, Régimen de fomento nacional para el uso de fuentes renovables de energía destinada a la producción de energía eléctrica. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: E. Castellanos, M. F. Lemos, L. Astigarraga et al., “Central and South America,” in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, chapter 12. Cambridge University Press, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., “Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system,” Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555–564, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 15World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025 (series page, published 18 May 2026, updated 12 June 2026; key messages only, the full report was not opened). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 16Inter-American Development Bank, with ECLAC and the World Bank Group (eds.), Damage and loss assessment of the April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul (BRL 88.9 billion), as reported by Agência Brasil on 29 November 2024; the assessment itself was not opened. IDB, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 17NASA Earth Observatory (ed.), Bahía Blanca inundated (image of the day, 17 March 2025; about 400 mm in 8 hours on 7 March 2025, previous daily record 175 mm in 1930; page updated 31 January 2026). NASA, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pan American Health Organization (ed.), Epidemiological alert: increase in dengue cases in the Americas region, 7 October 2024 (11,732,921 cases to epidemiological week 36; Brazil 5,303 deaths, Argentina 408; taken from search summaries because the PDF text could not be read). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Latin America Energy Outlook. IEA, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 1World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 2World Bank (ed.), GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 4World Bank (ed.), Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (latest value returned is 2021). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 5World Bank (ed.), Renewable electricity output, % of total electricity output (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (latest value returned is 2021). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 6World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 3World Bank (ed.), Forest area, % of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 7World Bank (ed.), Terrestrial and marine protected areas, % of total territorial area (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 8World Bank (ed.), People using safely managed drinking water services, % of population (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (no value returned for Argentina). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 9World Bank (ed.), Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 10World Bank (ed.), Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (Brazil 11.5%, Argentina 12.6% in 2025; consulted for the profile, not used in a finding). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38. 13Ember (ed.), Brazil electricity country page (low-carbon share 89%, hydro 52%, wind and solar 27%, fossil 11% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39. 14Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity country page (low-carbon share 42%, wind and solar 16%, fossil 58% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hitachi Energy (ed.), Brazil-Argentina HVDC interconnection, Garabí converter station (2,200 MW back-to-back; 60 Hz and 50 Hz; first phase 2000, second phase 2002; flows mainly Brazil to Argentina per a World Bank case study); taken from search summaries. Hitachi Energy, Zurich. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), PRODES estimate for the Legal Amazon, August 2024 to July 2025 (5,796 km2, 11.08% below the previous cycle; Cerrado 7,235 km2), announced 30 October 2025; taken from search summaries because the government page required authentication. INPE, São José dos Campos. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026, base year 2025 (renewable share of the electricity matrix 86.8%, from press summaries; the report was not found). EPE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a drought on the Paraná and Amazon basins load hydropower, navigation and the grid across the border?

   INI-SAM-CLI-01 · compound basin drought; first output: dependency graph for the Paraná corridor.

2. A-02

   How much cross-border electricity and gas can the members move in a dry year?

   INI-SAM-ENE-02 · cross-border energy; first output: flow-and-capacity register.

3. A-03

   How do low flows on shared basins reach navigation, hydropower and farming?

   INI-SAM-WAT-03 · shared basins; first output: basin performance note for the Paraná.

4. A-04

   How many dengue cases and deaths follow heat and rain, by member and year?

   INI-SAM-HLT-04 · climate and health; first output: surveillance baseline for two members.

5. A-05

   Where do flood and storm losses fall between insurers, households and public budgets?

   INI-SAM-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-member loss table.

6. A-06

   What is the condition of forest and wetland, and how is clearing measured across members?

   INI-SAM-BIO-01 · workstream; first output: deforestation indicator note.

7. A-07

   How exposed are crop output and exports to drought and river logistics?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   Regional capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 regional portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The South America regional pathway is the route through which the Nexus operating system will read South America as one region from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its hubs are named in the series registry; its working arrangements are set from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   National Foundries

   continuous national evidence environments

   PREPARED · first sealed cuts in Q1 2027

2. 02

   National Models and Portfolios

   each country as a system of systems

   CANADA v0 ISSUED · 25 further national baselines

3. 03

   Quarterly national reports

   State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual

   BASELINE STAGE · Q1 2027 opens the series

4. 04

   Regional aggregation

   South America as one of ten regional clusters

   THIS EDITION · annual regional cut from 2027

5. 05

   Global sector and strategic models

   GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20

   49 PLANNED · pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01

6. 06

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · global mandate in 2027

7. 07

   Global Report

   this series

   BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-SAM-2027-01 · Rivers, power and logistics Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 16Inter-American Development Bank, with ECLAC and the World Bank Group (eds.), Damage and loss assessment of the April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul (BRL 88.9 billion), as reported by Agência Brasil on 29 November 2024; the assessment itself was not opened. IDB, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press (ed.), Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years (Negro River at the port of Manaus 12.66 m, October 2024; the page opened returned not found). AP, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press and trade press (eds.), Drought hits South America river, threatening vast ecosystem (Paraná at its lowest level in nearly 80 years, 2021; reports of 77 and 80 years differ; Itaipú output). AP, New York, August 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Member countries: the baseline regional chapter

The two member countries named in the series registry, read side by side on the same indicators. Latin America and the Caribbean totals appear only as a reference aggregate. They are not the region and are not joined to it.

8.2Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter

Shared basins, an aquifer, grids and gas supply carry risk across member borders. This chapter names each system, the members involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.

8.3Hub list: the baseline regional chapter

The hubs the series registry names for this region and for its member countries. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.

Registry

Regional hubs

São Paulo

Desks with a remit

GCRI · GRF · GRX

Registry record

NR-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0

What a hub does in this series

• Hub terms of reference are not set at baseline
• Hub contact points are not named at baseline
• The registry names the hubs and the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027

8.4Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter

The regional pathway is the route through which the series reads South America as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2World Bank (ed.), GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 3World Bank (ed.), Forest area, % of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 4World Bank (ed.), Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (latest value returned is 2021). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 7World Bank (ed.), Terrestrial and marine protected areas, % of total territorial area (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 13Ember (ed.), Brazil electricity country page (low-carbon share 89%, hydro 52%, wind and solar 27%, fossil 11% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 16Inter-American Development Bank, with ECLAC and the World Bank Group (eds.), Damage and loss assessment of the April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul (BRL 88.9 billion), as reported by Agência Brasil on 29 November 2024; the assessment itself was not opened. IDB, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 14Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity country page (low-carbon share 42%, wind and solar 16%, fossil 58% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 17NASA Earth Observatory (ed.), Bahía Blanca inundated (image of the day, 17 March 2025; about 400 mm in 8 hours on 7 March 2025, previous daily record 175 mm in 1930; page updated 31 January 2026). NASA, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pan American Health Organization (ed.), Epidemiological alert: increase in dengue cases in the Americas region, 7 October 2024 (11,732,921 cases to epidemiological week 36; Brazil 5,303 deaths, Argentina 408; taken from search summaries because the PDF text could not be read). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hitachi Energy (ed.), Brazil-Argentina HVDC interconnection, Garabí converter station (2,200 MW back-to-back; 60 Hz and 50 Hz; first phase 2000, second phase 2002; flows mainly Brazil to Argentina per a World Bank case study); taken from search summaries. Hitachi Energy, Zurich. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Intelligence (ed.), Argentina’s piped gas exports to Brazil take step forward (first Vaca Muerta gas to Brazil through Bolivian pipelines, early 2026; 3 million m3 a day transit offer; taken from search summaries). Energy Intelligence, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 21F. Sindico, in M. Fitzmaurice, A. Tanzi and A. Papantoniou (eds.), The Guarani Aquifer Agreement 2010, in Multilateral Environmental Treaties, Elgar Encyclopedia of Environmental Law. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2017, pp. 299–310 (catalogue page opened; parties Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty of the River Plate Basin (Tratado da Bacia do Prata), signed by the basin states in 1969. Observation year 1969. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press (ed.), Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years (Negro River at the port of Manaus 12.66 m, October 2024; the page opened returned not found). AP, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Amazon Cooperation Treaty (Tratado de Cooperação Amazônica), signed by the Amazon basin states in 1978. Observation year 1978. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty of Itaipú between Brazil and Paraguay on the hydroelectric use of the Paraná river, signed in 1973. Observation year 1973. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press and trade press (eds.), Drought hits South America river, threatening vast ecosystem (Paraná at its lowest level in nearly 80 years, 2021; reports of 77 and 80 years differ; Itaipú output). AP, New York, August 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The regional baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card: Regional System Model v0

Model ID

MDL-SAM-REGIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent South America as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems across member countries, with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

regional scale; not for national, basin or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The regional baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-REG-SAM-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

50 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-REG-SAM-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards: two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• Brazilian energy balance²³ : power mix at source
• Binational plant operators⁴¹ : output
• National water services²⁵ : river flows
• Reports Foundational Edition⁴⁹ and the global baseline⁵⁰ : method and peer distributions

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: emissions excluding land use

Construct

annual greenhouse gas emissions without land use, land-use change and forestry

Unit

Mt CO₂e

Scope

calendar year, AR5 global warming potentials

Source

World Bank greenhouse gas series⁶

Revision

revised by the issuer; not tracked here

Known limits

excludes land use, which is large in Brazil; differs from the net bases of the national pledges¹⁹²⁰

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8World Bank (ed.), People using safely managed drinking water services, % of population (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (no value returned for Argentina). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 4World Bank (ed.), Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (latest value returned is 2021). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026, base year 2025 (renewable share of the electricity matrix 86.8%, from press summaries; the report was not found). EPE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 19Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Brazil: targets (second NDC, 59% to 67% below 2005 by 2035, 850 to 1,050 Mt CO2e including land use, submitted 13 November 2024; page updated 30 June 2026). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 20Subsecretaría de Ambiente, Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Argentina presentó la tercera contribución determinada a nivel nacional (net emissions not above 375 Mt CO2e for 2030 and 2035, 3 November 2025). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), PRODES estimate for the Legal Amazon, August 2024 to July 2025 (5,796 km2, 11.08% below the previous cycle; Cerrado 7,235 km2), announced 30 October 2025; taken from search summaries because the government page required authentication. INPE, São José dos Campos. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press and trade press (eds.), Drought hits South America river, threatening vast ecosystem (Paraná at its lowest level in nearly 80 years, 2021; reports of 77 and 80 years differ; Itaipú output). AP, New York, August 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty of Itaipú between Brazil and Paraguay on the hydroelectric use of the Paraná river, signed in 1973. Observation year 1973. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press (ed.), Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years (Negro River at the port of Manaus 12.66 m, October 2024; the page opened returned not found). AP, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Argentine and international press (eds.), Bahía Blanca floods of March 2025 (at least 16 deaths reported, counts rose over several days; no final official total read). Municipality of Bahía Blanca and press, March 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pan American Health Organization (ed.), Epidemiological alert: increase in dengue cases in the Americas region, 7 October 2024 (11,732,921 cases to epidemiological week 36; Brazil 5,303 deaths, Argentina 408; taken from search summaries because the PDF text could not be read). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 21F. Sindico, in M. Fitzmaurice, A. Tanzi and A. Papantoniou (eds.), The Guarani Aquifer Agreement 2010, in Multilateral Environmental Treaties, Elgar Encyclopedia of Environmental Law. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2017, pp. 299–310 (catalogue page opened; parties Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty of the River Plate Basin (Tratado da Bacia do Prata), signed by the basin states in 1969. Observation year 1969. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Argentina: targets and 2035 NDC (states the 2035 target had not been submitted to the UNFCCC as of June 2026; taken from search summaries). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Intelligence (ed.), Argentina’s piped gas exports to Brazil take step forward (first Vaca Muerta gas to Brazil through Bolivian pipelines, early 2026; 3 million m3 a day transit offer; taken from search summaries). Energy Intelligence, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 1World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 16Inter-American Development Bank, with ECLAC and the World Bank Group (eds.), Damage and loss assessment of the April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul (BRL 88.9 billion), as reported by Agência Brasil on 29 November 2024; the assessment itself was not opened. IDB, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used by the generator as the structural base; not read by the author of this spec). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Regional source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD
• MIN

B.3Regional reading: South America by member country

Map plates for every member country follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form for the 2 member countries named in the series registry.

Selected indicators¹⁶

B.4Atlas card: Paraná–La Plata basin

• basin
• shared river system
• navigation and hydropower
• members: Brazil, Argentina

Systems in view

water, energy and freight

Defining instruments

River Plate Basin treaty³⁹; Itaipú Treaty⁴¹; Guarani Aquifer Agreement²¹

Couplings

CLI → WAT → ENE; WAT → FOO

Capability evidence

treaty bodies and binational plant operators exist; performance not bound

Gaps

low-water days, plant output, basin area by country

Agenda items

A-03

B.5South America system card

The card through which South America appears in the global edition and in the sector series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

two members sharing basins, an aquifer, power links and gas supply

Population

212.8 million in Brazil and 45.9 million in Argentina (2025)¹

Trade

Argentine gas exports to Brazil through Bolivia began in early 2026²⁸

Hazard

floods of 2024 caused BRL 88.9 billion of damage and loss¹⁶

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-REG-SAM-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2World Bank (ed.), GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 6World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 13Ember (ed.), Brazil electricity country page (low-carbon share 89%, hydro 52%, wind and solar 27%, fossil 11% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 14Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity country page (low-carbon share 42%, wind and solar 16%, fossil 58% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 4World Bank (ed.), Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (latest value returned is 2021). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 3World Bank (ed.), Forest area, % of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 7World Bank (ed.), Terrestrial and marine protected areas, % of total territorial area (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 16Inter-American Development Bank, with ECLAC and the World Bank Group (eds.), Damage and loss assessment of the April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul (BRL 88.9 billion), as reported by Agência Brasil on 29 November 2024; the assessment itself was not opened. IDB, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 8World Bank (ed.), People using safely managed drinking water services, % of population (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (no value returned for Argentina). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press and trade press (eds.), Drought hits South America river, threatening vast ecosystem (Paraná at its lowest level in nearly 80 years, 2021; reports of 77 and 80 years differ; Itaipú output). AP, New York, August 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty of Itaipú between Brazil and Paraguay on the hydroelectric use of the Paraná river, signed in 1973. Observation year 1973. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pan American Health Organization (ed.), Epidemiological alert: increase in dengue cases in the Americas region, 7 October 2024 (11,732,921 cases to epidemiological week 36; Brazil 5,303 deaths, Argentina 408; taken from search summaries because the PDF text could not be read). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 19Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Brazil: targets (second NDC, 59% to 67% below 2005 by 2035, 850 to 1,050 Mt CO2e including land use, submitted 13 November 2024; page updated 30 June 2026). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 20Subsecretaría de Ambiente, Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Argentina presentó la tercera contribución determinada a nivel nacional (net emissions not above 375 Mt CO2e for 2030 and 2035, 3 November 2025). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 10World Bank (ed.), Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (Brazil 11.5%, Argentina 12.6% in 2025; consulted for the profile, not used in a finding). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 12World Bank (ed.), Urban population, % of total population (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 5World Bank (ed.), Renewable electricity output, % of total electricity output (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (latest value returned is 2021). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 15World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025 (series page, published 18 May 2026, updated 12 June 2026; key messages only, the full report was not opened). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 17NASA Earth Observatory (ed.), Bahía Blanca inundated (image of the day, 17 March 2025; about 400 mm in 8 hours on 7 March 2025, previous daily record 175 mm in 1930; page updated 31 January 2026). NASA, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 9World Bank (ed.), Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press (ed.), Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years (Negro River at the port of Manaus 12.66 m, October 2024; the page opened returned not found). AP, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty of the River Plate Basin (Tratado da Bacia do Prata), signed by the basin states in 1969. Observation year 1969. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 21F. Sindico, in M. Fitzmaurice, A. Tanzi and A. Papantoniou (eds.), The Guarani Aquifer Agreement 2010, in Multilateral Environmental Treaties, Elgar Encyclopedia of Environmental Law. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2017, pp. 299–310 (catalogue page opened; parties Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 11World Bank (ed.), Agriculture, forestry and fishing, value added, % of GDP (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Intelligence (ed.), Argentina’s piped gas exports to Brazil take step forward (first Vaca Muerta gas to Brazil through Bolivian pipelines, early 2026; 3 million m3 a day transit offer; taken from search summaries). Energy Intelligence, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.150 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2World Bank (ed.), GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
3. 3World Bank (ed.), Forest area, % of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
4. 4World Bank (ed.), Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (latest value returned is 2021). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5World Bank (ed.), Renewable electricity output, % of total electricity output (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (latest value returned is 2021). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
6. 6World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
7. 7World Bank (ed.), Terrestrial and marine protected areas, % of total territorial area (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
8. 8World Bank (ed.), People using safely managed drinking water services, % of population (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (no value returned for Argentina). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6
9. 9World Bank (ed.), Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6
10. 10World Bank (ed.), Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (Brazil 11.5%, Argentina 12.6% in 2025; consulted for the profile, not used in a finding). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
11. 11World Bank (ed.), Agriculture, forestry and fishing, value added, % of GDP (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3
12. 12World Bank (ed.), Urban population, % of total population (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
13. 13Ember (ed.), Brazil electricity country page (low-carbon share 89%, hydro 52%, wind and solar 27%, fossil 11% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
14. 14Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity country page (low-carbon share 42%, wind and solar 16%, fossil 58% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
15. 15World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025 (series page, published 18 May 2026, updated 12 June 2026; key messages only, the full report was not opened). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
16. 16Inter-American Development Bank, with ECLAC and the World Bank Group (eds.), Damage and loss assessment of the April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul (BRL 88.9 billion), as reported by Agência Brasil on 29 November 2024; the assessment itself was not opened. IDB, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
17. 17NASA Earth Observatory (ed.), Bahía Blanca inundated (image of the day, 17 March 2025; about 400 mm in 8 hours on 7 March 2025, previous daily record 175 mm in 1930; page updated 31 January 2026). NASA, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
18. 18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
19. 19Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Brazil: targets (second NDC, 59% to 67% below 2005 by 2035, 850 to 1,050 Mt CO2e including land use, submitted 13 November 2024; page updated 30 June 2026). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
20. 20Subsecretaría de Ambiente, Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Argentina presentó la tercera contribución determinada a nivel nacional (net emissions not above 375 Mt CO2e for 2030 and 2035, 3 November 2025). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
21. 21F. Sindico, in M. Fitzmaurice, A. Tanzi and A. Papantoniou (eds.), The Guarani Aquifer Agreement 2010, in Multilateral Environmental Treaties, Elgar Encyclopedia of Environmental Law. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2017, pp. 299–310 (catalogue page opened; parties Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
22. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), PRODES estimate for the Legal Amazon, August 2024 to July 2025 (5,796 km2, 11.08% below the previous cycle; Cerrado 7,235 km2), announced 30 October 2025; taken from search summaries because the government page required authentication. INPE, São José dos Campos. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
23. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026, base year 2025 (renewable share of the electricity matrix 86.8%, from press summaries; the report was not found). EPE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
24. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press (ed.), Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years (Negro River at the port of Manaus 12.66 m, October 2024; the page opened returned not found). AP, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 7, chapter 8
25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press and trade press (eds.), Drought hits South America river, threatening vast ecosystem (Paraná at its lowest level in nearly 80 years, 2021; reports of 77 and 80 years differ; Itaipú output). AP, New York, August 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 7, chapter 8
26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pan American Health Organization (ed.), Epidemiological alert: increase in dengue cases in the Americas region, 7 October 2024 (11,732,921 cases to epidemiological week 36; Brazil 5,303 deaths, Argentina 408; taken from search summaries because the PDF text could not be read). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hitachi Energy (ed.), Brazil-Argentina HVDC interconnection, Garabí converter station (2,200 MW back-to-back; 60 Hz and 50 Hz; first phase 2000, second phase 2002; flows mainly Brazil to Argentina per a World Bank case study); taken from search summaries. Hitachi Energy, Zurich. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Intelligence (ed.), Argentina’s piped gas exports to Brazil take step forward (first Vaca Muerta gas to Brazil through Bolivian pipelines, early 2026; 3 million m3 a day transit offer; taken from search summaries). Energy Intelligence, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Argentine and international press (eds.), Bahía Blanca floods of March 2025 (at least 16 deaths reported, counts rose over several days; no final official total read). Municipality of Bahía Blanca and press, March 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Argentina: targets and 2035 NDC (states the 2035 target had not been submitted to the UNFCCC as of June 2026; taken from search summaries). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: E. Castellanos, M. F. Lemos, L. Astigarraga et al., “Central and South America,” in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, chapter 12. Cambridge University Press, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., “Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system,” Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555–564, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty of the River Plate Basin (Tratado da Bacia do Prata), signed by the basin states in 1969. Observation year 1969. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Amazon Cooperation Treaty (Tratado de Cooperação Amazônica), signed by the Amazon basin states in 1978. Observation year 1978. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty of Itaipú between Brazil and Paraguay on the hydroelectric use of the Paraná river, signed in 1973. Observation year 1973. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.187, de 29 de dezembro de 2009, institui a Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2009. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 15.042, de 11 de dezembro de 2024, institui o Sistema Brasileiro de Comércio de Emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.520, Presupuestos mínimos de adaptación y mitigación al cambio climático global; Ley 27.287 on the national civil protection system is listed with it. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 26.331, Presupuestos mínimos de protección ambiental de los bosques nativos. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2007. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.191, Régimen de fomento nacional para el uso de fuentes renovables de energía destinada a la producción de energía eléctrica. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 14.026, de 15 de julho de 2020, atualiza o marco legal do saneamento básico. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2020. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Latin America Energy Outlook. IEA, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
49. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
50. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used by the generator as the structural base; not read by the author of this spec). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version