Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

14 min read0 figures13 tables21 notesNR-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE

Contents

A.1Methods

The regional baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Brazil’s share of the two members’ population, 2025	212.81 ÷ (212.81 + 45.85)	82.3%
(2)	Brazil’s share of the two members’ emissions excluding land use, 2024	1,299.18 ÷ (1,299.18 + 374.34)	77.6%
(3)	Brazil’s share of the two members’ GDP, 2025	2,279.92 ÷ (2,279.92 + 683.10)	76.9%
(4)	Combined emissions excluding land use, 2024	1,299.18 + 374.34	1,673.5 Mt

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at regional scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card: Regional System Model v0

Model ID: MDL-SAM-REGIONAL · v0.1
Purpose: represent South America as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems across member countries, with forcing and transmission layers
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: regional scale; not for national, basin or asset-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

11strong

documented within one season

5moderate

documented, buffered

4weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The regional baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID: NQ-REG-SAM-2026-Q0-1
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 50 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: NQ-REG-SAM-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
Element	Baseline 2026	2027 regional annual
Sources	cited publications, pinned by edition	national, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	Regional System Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to federation evidence
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Population	2025	not recorded	annual	annual
Gross domestic product	2025	not recorded	annual	annual
Greenhouse gases excluding land use	2024	not recorded	annual	annual
Renewable share of final energy	2021	not recorded	annual	not bound
Electricity mix	2025	Dec 2025 (Argentina page)	annual	annual
Forest area	2024	not recorded	annual	annual
Protected areas	2025	not recorded	annual	annual
WMO regional report	2025	May 2026	annual	annual
Rio Grande do Sul assessment	2024	Nov 2024	one-off	not scheduled

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Climate and hazards	PARTIAL	losses; net emissions
Energy	PARTIAL	plant output; cross-border flows
Water	THIN	low-water series; Argentine access
Food	THIN	harvest and export volumes
Health	THIN	dengue for 2025
Biodiversity	PARTIAL	deforestation at source
Finance	THIN	insured and uninsured losses
Digital	THIN	dependency mapping

Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
Field	Source that would fill it	Blocker
Share of Argentina’s population using safely managed drinking water	World Bank series⁸ and the Argentine national water authority	the World Bank series returned no value for Argentina for 2019 to 2024
Renewable share of final energy after 2021, Brazil and Argentina	World Bank series⁴ and national energy balances²³	the series ended in 2021 in the query; the Brazilian 2026 balance could not be read at source
Net emissions including land use for Brazil and Argentina on one basis	national inventories and the SEEG system	the series read⁶ excludes land use and the pledges¹⁹²⁰ use net bases
Official PRODES deforestation rates for the Amazon and Cerrado, read at source	National Institute for Space Research²²	the government page returned an access restriction; values come from search summaries
Paraná River low-water days and navigation depth by year	national water institutes and port authorities²⁵	not retrieved; the press accounts disagree on the length of the record
Annual output of Itaipú, Yacyretá and Salto Grande	binational plant operators⁴¹	not retrieved
Deaths and economic losses of the 2023 and 2024 Amazon droughts	Brazil geological service and civil defence records²⁴	only press coverage of river levels was found
Deaths and losses of the March 2025 Bahía Blanca storm	municipal and national civil protection records²⁹	press counts rose over several days and no final official total was read
Dengue cases and deaths for 2025 and 2026, Brazil and Argentina	PAHO dengue indicators and national health ministries¹⁸²⁶	not retrieved; the full-year 2024 totals were also not read
Guarani aquifer area by country and abstraction	the aquifer agreement parties and transboundary aquifer assessments²¹	search results gave conflicting area figures and no source was opened
Paraná–La Plata basin area and population by country	La Plata basin treaty bodies³⁹	not retrieved
Argentine submission record of the third national pledge	UNFCCC registry and Climate Action Tracker²⁰³⁰	the announcement was read, but the submission status was disputed in search results
Monthly volumes of Argentine gas exported to Brazil through Bolivia	Bolivian state gas company and the Brazilian regulator²⁸	not retrieved; only first-flow reports were found
Insured and uninsured losses of the 2024 and 2025 floods	insurers’ associations and reinsurers	not retrieved
Capability rungs: early warning, reserves, response, recovery, social protection, infrastructure, workforce	civil protection, weather services, utilities and ministries	not reviewed by evidence close

A.5Evidence cards: two anchor sources

Issued by the World Bank, from national and United Nations sources. Annual. Role: binds the population figures in the profile and regional reading. Coverage is national totals for Brazil and Argentina.

EVD-SAM-001

Population, total¹

Authored by the Inter-American Development Bank with ECLAC and the World Bank Group, as reported by Agência Brasil. One-off. Role: binds the flood loss finding. Coverage is Rio Grande do Sul.

EVD-SAM-002

Damage and loss assessment of the 2024 floods¹⁶

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-SAM-001	EVD-SAM-002
Completeness	Brazil and Argentina national totals	one Brazilian state
Timeliness	about 1 year after the reference year	about 6 months after the event
Revision	revised by the issuer; not tracked here	one-off
Method transparency	published methodology	press report of the assessment read; the report itself was not opened
External validation	not assessed in this edition	not assessed in this edition

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

Brazilian energy balance²³ : power mix at source
Binational plant operators⁴¹ : output
National water services²⁵ : river flows
Reports Foundational Edition⁴⁹ and the global baseline⁵⁰ : method and peer distributions

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
AR5	IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
CAT	Climate Action Tracker
ECLAC	Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean
EPE	Energy Research Company (Brazil)
IDB	Inter-American Development Bank
INPE	National Institute for Space Research (Brazil)
LULUCF	land use, land-use change and forestry
NASA	National Aeronautics and Space Administration
PAHO	Pan American Health Organization
PRODES	Amazon deforestation monitoring programme (Brazil)
UNFCCC	United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WMO	World Meteorological Organization

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the regional indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-SAM-DRY-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	2027
A.7	Member-country notes	atlas cards for every member country	Q2 2027
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: emissions excluding land use

Construct: annual greenhouse gas emissions without land use, land-use change and forestry
Unit: Mt CO₂e
Scope: calendar year, AR5 global warming potentials
Source: World Bank greenhouse gas series⁶
Revision: revised by the issuer; not tracked here
Known limits: excludes land use, which is large in Brazil; differs from the net bases of the national pledges¹⁹²⁰

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

8World Bank (ed.), People using safely managed drinking water services, % of population (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (no value returned for Argentina). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4World Bank (ed.), Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (latest value returned is 2021). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23UNVERIFIED, not opened: Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026, base year 2025 (renewable share of the electricity matrix 86.8%, from press summaries; the report was not found). EPE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Brazil: targets (second NDC, 59% to 67% below 2005 by 2035, 850 to 1,050 Mt CO2e including land use, submitted 13 November 2024; page updated 30 June 2026). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20Subsecretaría de Ambiente, Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Argentina presentó la tercera contribución determinada a nivel nacional (net emissions not above 375 Mt CO2e for 2030 and 2035, 3 November 2025). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), PRODES estimate for the Legal Amazon, August 2024 to July 2025 (5,796 km2, 11.08% below the previous cycle; Cerrado 7,235 km2), announced 30 October 2025; taken from search summaries because the government page required authentication. INPE, São José dos Campos. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press and trade press (eds.), Drought hits South America river, threatening vast ecosystem (Paraná at its lowest level in nearly 80 years, 2021; reports of 77 and 80 years differ; Itaipú output). AP, New York, August 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty of Itaipú between Brazil and Paraguay on the hydroelectric use of the Paraná river, signed in 1973. Observation year 1973. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press (ed.), Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years (Negro River at the port of Manaus 12.66 m, October 2024; the page opened returned not found). AP, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Argentine and international press (eds.), Bahía Blanca floods of March 2025 (at least 16 deaths reported, counts rose over several days; no final official total read). Municipality of Bahía Blanca and press, March 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pan American Health Organization (ed.), Epidemiological alert: increase in dengue cases in the Americas region, 7 October 2024 (11,732,921 cases to epidemiological week 36; Brazil 5,303 deaths, Argentina 408; taken from search summaries because the PDF text could not be read). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21F. Sindico, in M. Fitzmaurice, A. Tanzi and A. Papantoniou (eds.), The Guarani Aquifer Agreement 2010, in Multilateral Environmental Treaties, Elgar Encyclopedia of Environmental Law. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2017, pp. 299–310 (catalogue page opened; parties Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty of the River Plate Basin (Tratado da Bacia do Prata), signed by the basin states in 1969. Observation year 1969. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Argentina: targets and 2035 NDC (states the 2035 target had not been submitted to the UNFCCC as of June 2026; taken from search summaries). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Intelligence (ed.), Argentina’s piped gas exports to Brazil take step forward (first Vaca Muerta gas to Brazil through Bolivian pipelines, early 2026; 3 million m3 a day transit offer; taken from search summaries). Energy Intelligence, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16Inter-American Development Bank, with ECLAC and the World Bank Group (eds.), Damage and loss assessment of the April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul (BRL 88.9 billion), as reported by Agência Brasil on 29 November 2024; the assessment itself was not opened. IDB, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
49UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
50UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used by the generator as the structural base; not read by the author of this spec). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex A: Methodology. In South America Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of South America’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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