Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Basin drought across the Paraná corridor and the Amazon

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

3 min read0 figures0 tables5 notesNR-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1South America’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and gas
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Basin drought across the Paraná corridor and the Amazon
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SAM-DRY-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a dry year with low flow on shared rivers, high power demand and delayed rains
Analogues
Negro River 202424; Paraná 202125; dengue in 202418
Interventions
none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → WAT

    low flows cut navigation and hydropower on shared rivers

    rivers 2024 and 20212425

  2. 2

    WAT → ENE

    hydropower falls and gas demand rises

    no analogue bound

  3. 3

    ENE → INF

    cross-border flows through one converter and Bolivian pipelines reach their limits

    links2728

  4. 4

    WAT → FOO

    barge loads and export logistics fall

    Paraná 202125

  5. 5

    CLI → HLT

    heat and delayed rains raise dengue risk

    dengue 202418

  6. 6

    FIN → recovery

    rebuilding slows where cover is thin

    loss series not bound

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SAM-DRY-01 would travel through South America’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to waterLow flows cut navigation and hydropower on shared rivers. Analogue or source: rivers 2024 and 2021 [24] [25].Edition REG-SAM, scenario SCN-SAM-DRY-01, step 1
02 Water to energyHydropower falls and gas demand rises. Analogue or source: no analogue bound.Edition REG-SAM, scenario SCN-SAM-DRY-01, step 2
03 Energy to infrastructureCross-border flows through one converter and Bolivian pipelines reach their limits. Analogue or source: links [27] [28].Edition REG-SAM, scenario SCN-SAM-DRY-01, step 3
04 Water to foodBarge loads and export logistics fall. Analogue or source: Paraná 2021 [25].Edition REG-SAM, scenario SCN-SAM-DRY-01, step 4
05 Climate to healthHeat and delayed rains raise dengue risk. Analogue or source: dengue 2024 [18].Edition REG-SAM, scenario SCN-SAM-DRY-01, step 5
06 Finance to recoveryRebuilding slows where cover is thin. Analogue or source: loss series not bound.Edition REG-SAM, scenario SCN-SAM-DRY-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: South America 2026, scenario SCN-SAM-DRY-01 (2026); South America 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press (ed.), Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years (Negro River at the port of Manaus 12.66 m, October 2024; the page opened returned not found). AP, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press and trade press (eds.), Drought hits South America river, threatening vast ecosystem (Paraná at its lowest level in nearly 80 years, 2021; reports of 77 and 80 years differ; Itaipú output). AP, New York, August 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hitachi Energy (ed.), Brazil-Argentina HVDC interconnection, Garabí converter station (2,200 MW back-to-back; 60 Hz and 50 Hz; first phase 2000, second phase 2002; flows mainly Brazil to Argentina per a World Bank case study); taken from search summaries. Hitachi Energy, Zurich. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Intelligence (ed.), Argentina’s piped gas exports to Brazil take step forward (first Vaca Muerta gas to Brazil through Bolivian pipelines, early 2026; 3 million m3 a day transit offer; taken from search summaries). Energy Intelligence, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Basin drought across the Paraná corridor and the Amazon. In South America Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of South America’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on South America.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskRegional Systems Risk & Resilience Report

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

Sector signature

The sectors behind South America.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines10 / 15 relations

Context

Drought

Low river flows cut irrigation, cooling water and hydropower at once; food prices, nutrition and ecosystems follow.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
5 of 6
Relations
10 of 15
Coupling
0.68 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices