Russian Federation Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Russian Federation baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. The 1990 net base is 2,427.2 Mt CO₂e and the 2035 target is 65 to 67% of it. The latest national total is not bound here.¹

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. A magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck off Kamchatka on 29 July 2025. National losses are not bound.²⁵

   How exposed is Russia to earthquakes?Reported

3. Thermal plants produced 57.5% of power in 2025 and gas supplied 53% of primary energy in 2023.⁸⁹

   How secure is energy supply?Reported

4. Grain harvest was 141.2 Mt in 2025 and undernourishment is at the reporting floor.¹⁹²²

   How secure is food?Reported

5. Heat-attributable deaths are not bound. 2025 was the second-warmest year on record. Rosstat · Ministry of Health

   Is heat now a health hazard?Not bound

6. A dam built for 5.5 m failed when the river reached 9.6 m.²⁶

   What did the Orsk flood reveal?Reported

7. Insurance take-up and public loss-sharing were not bound at evidence close. Bank of Russia

   Who carries the losses?Not bound

8. Heat and drought in a grain and forest region with smoke, power and health strain. SCN-RUS-HTD-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-BIO-004

The NDC reports forest fund land of more than 1.1 billion ha and average removals of 1.2 Gt CO₂e a year since 1990, and a peer-reviewed study finds managed-forest biomass uptake 47% above the earlier national inventory.

Forests carry the national climate position. The size of the sink changed in successive inventories, with the 2021 value revised from about 505 to about 750 Mt CO₂e of removals in a later submission⁴. A sink of this size is also a risk: fire, pests and thaw can turn removals into emissions²⁷³¹.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution of the Russian Federation. Submission to the UNFCCC, Moscow, September 2025.back
2. 9U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), Russia: country analysis brief. EIA, Washington, last updated 24 July 2025.back
3. 8System Operator of the Unified Energy System (ed.), Operating results of the unified energy system in 2025, as reported by TASS, 14 January 2026.back
4. 5Roshydromet (ed.), Report on climate features on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2025. Roshydromet, Moscow, February 2026.back
5. 6The Moscow Times (ed.), “2025 was Russia’s second warmest year on record.” The Moscow Times, 2026, reporting the Roshydromet annual climate report.back
6. 29M. Rantanen, A. Y. Karpechko, A. Lipponen et al., “The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979,” Communications Earth & Environment, vol. 3, 2022.back
7. 22Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Grain and wheat harvest 2025, excluding new regions, as reported by Interfax, 24 August 2026.back
8. 25U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), M 8.8, 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia Earthquake, event us6000qw60. USGS, Reston, 29 July 2025.back
9. 26Al Jazeera (ed.), “Russia evacuates 4,000 people after dam bursts, floods near Kazakh border,” 6 April 2024; WAM (ed.), “Over 7,700 people evacuated from flooded areas in Russia’s Orenburg Region,” April 2024.back
10. 24The Moscow Times (ed.), “Rosstat stops publishing monthly population data amid war deaths, demographic crisis.” The Moscow Times, 7 July 2025.back
11. 19World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
12. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Russian Federation: targets and country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 30 September 2025.back
13. 27The Moscow Times (ed.), “Russia sees milder wildfire season so far in 2025 but experts warn against complacency,” reporting official figures through August 2025 via Kedr.back
14. 31D. Schepaschenko, E. Moltchanova, S. Fedorov et al., “Russian forest sequesters substantially more carbon than previously reported,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9back
15. 23Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Preliminary population estimate as of 1 January 2025, as reported by TASS, 31 January 2025.back
16. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
17. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is the Russian Federation’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five system chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Russian Federation matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → FOO

   Heat and drought lower yields and raise export and price pressure.

   Inferred 2025 harvest context²²

2. 02

   CLI → INF

   Permafrost thaw weakens foundations, tanks and pipelines in the north.

   Reported Norilsk 2020³²

3. 03

   CLI → WAT → INF

   Spring flood overtops a dam and cuts housing and roads.

   Reported Orsk 2024²⁶

4. 04

   SEI → INF

   A great subduction earthquake and tsunami strike a remote coast.

   Reported Kamchatka 2025²⁵

5. 05

   TRD → ENE → FIN

   External demand and logistics shifts pass into energy and public revenue.

   Inferred 2024 and 2025 growth²⁰

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5Roshydromet (ed.), Report on climate features on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2025. Roshydromet, Moscow, February 2026.back
2. 6The Moscow Times (ed.), “2025 was Russia’s second warmest year on record.” The Moscow Times, 2026, reporting the Roshydromet annual climate report.back
3. 29M. Rantanen, A. Y. Karpechko, A. Lipponen et al., “The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979,” Communications Earth & Environment, vol. 3, 2022.back
4. 30B. K. Biskaborn, S. L. Smith, J. Noetzli et al., “Permafrost is warming at a global scale,” Nature Communications, vol. 10, article 264, 2019. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4back
5. 32S. Rajendran et al., “Monitoring oil spill in Norilsk, Russia using satellite data,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021.back
6. 9U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), Russia: country analysis brief. EIA, Washington, last updated 24 July 2025.back
7. 8System Operator of the Unified Energy System (ed.), Operating results of the unified energy system in 2025, as reported by TASS, 14 January 2026.back
8. 10Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2050, Order No. 908-r of 12 April 2025. Moscow, 2025.back
9. 1Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution of the Russian Federation. Submission to the UNFCCC, Moscow, September 2025.back
10. 22Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Grain and wheat harvest 2025, excluding new regions, as reported by Interfax, 24 August 2026.back
11. 18World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: freshwater withdrawals (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS) and renewable internal freshwater per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
12. 26Al Jazeera (ed.), “Russia evacuates 4,000 people after dam bursts, floods near Kazakh border,” 6 April 2024; WAM (ed.), “Over 7,700 people evacuated from flooded areas in Russia’s Orenburg Region,” April 2024.back
13. 24The Moscow Times (ed.), “Rosstat stops publishing monthly population data amid war deaths, demographic crisis.” The Moscow Times, 7 July 2025.back
14. 2UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Russian Federation: 2026 National Inventory Document and Common Reporting Tables, 1990 to 2024. Submitted 25 June 2026. UNFCCC, Bonn, 2026.back
15. 25U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), M 8.8, 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia Earthquake, event us6000qw60. USGS, Reston, 29 July 2025.back
16. 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-BIO-004

The NDC reports forest fund land of more than 1.1 billion ha and average removals of 1.2 Gt CO₂e a year since 1990, and a peer-reviewed study finds managed-forest biomass uptake 47% above the earlier national inventory.

Implication

Forests carry the national climate position. The size of the sink changed in successive inventories, with the 2021 value revised from about 505 to about 750 Mt CO₂e of removals in a later submission⁴. A sink of this size is also a risk: fire, pests and thaw can turn removals into emissions²⁷³¹.

What would move it

The 2027 inventory submission, independent forest inventories, full-season wildfire area and any revision of the managed-forest area would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   The second NDC sets 2035 net emissions at 65 to 67% of the 1990 level, with removals by forests counted; the 1990 net base is 2,427.2 Mt CO₂e.¹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

   2025 was the second-warmest year on record in Russia, +1.24 °C against the reference period, after 2020 at +2.03 °C.⁵⁶

2.3Energy

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002

   Thermal plants produced 57.5% of electricity in the unified system in 2025, nuclear 18.7% and hydropower 16.7%; natural gas supplied 53% of primary energy in 2023.⁸⁹

2.4Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-BIO-004

   The NDC reports forest fund land of more than 1.1 billion ha and average removals of 1.2 Gt CO₂e a year since 1990; a peer-reviewed study finds managed-forest biomass uptake 47% above the earlier national inventory.¹³¹

2.5SEI

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-SEI-005

   A magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck off the Kamchatka Peninsula on 29 July 2025 and generated a tsunami; losses are not bound in this edition.²⁵

2.6Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006

   The 2025 grain harvest was 141.2 Mt, including 91.1 Mt of wheat, on the Rosstat series that excludes the new regions; the preliminary figure in December 2025 was 139.4 Mt.²¹²²

2.7Health

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007

   17.8% of the population was aged 65 or over in 2025 and life expectancy was 73.4 years in 2024; monthly births and deaths were withdrawn from Rosstat releases in 2025.¹³¹⁴²⁴

2. Not boundEQL 1NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

   Heat-attributable deaths are not bound: no national cause-of-death series was available at evidence close. Rosstat · Ministry of Health

2.8Water

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-WAT-009

   The Orsk dam on the Ural River failed on 5 April 2024 when the river reached 9.6 m against a design level of 5.5 m; more than 7,700 people were evacuated across the Orenburg Region.²⁶

2.9Infrastructure

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-INF-010

   The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, and permafrost temperatures have risen globally; a fuel tank failure at Norilsk in 2020 released about 17,500 t of diesel.²⁹³⁰³²

2.10Trade

1. InferredEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-TRD-011

   Exports of crude oil, gas, coal and grain tie national income and supply to external demand and logistics; GDP growth was 4.9% in 2024 and 1.0% in 2025.⁹²⁰²²

2.11Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer of heat and drought in a grain and forest region, with wildfire smoke over cities and strain on power and health services. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution of the Russian Federation. Submission to the UNFCCC, Moscow, September 2025.back
2. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Russian Federation: targets and country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 30 September 2025.back
3. 27The Moscow Times (ed.), “Russia sees milder wildfire season so far in 2025 but experts warn against complacency,” reporting official figures through August 2025 via Kedr.back
4. 31D. Schepaschenko, E. Moltchanova, S. Fedorov et al., “Russian forest sequesters substantially more carbon than previously reported,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9back
5. 5Roshydromet (ed.), Report on climate features on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2025. Roshydromet, Moscow, February 2026.back
6. 6The Moscow Times (ed.), “2025 was Russia’s second warmest year on record.” The Moscow Times, 2026, reporting the Roshydromet annual climate report.back
7. 8System Operator of the Unified Energy System (ed.), Operating results of the unified energy system in 2025, as reported by TASS, 14 January 2026.back
8. 9U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), Russia: country analysis brief. EIA, Washington, last updated 24 July 2025.back
9. 25U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), M 8.8, 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia Earthquake, event us6000qw60. USGS, Reston, 29 July 2025.back
10. 21Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Preliminary grain harvest 2025 in the socio-economic situation report, as reported by TASS, 26 December 2025.back
11. 22Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Grain and wheat harvest 2025, excluding new regions, as reported by Interfax, 24 August 2026.back
12. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
13. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
14. 24The Moscow Times (ed.), “Rosstat stops publishing monthly population data amid war deaths, demographic crisis.” The Moscow Times, 7 July 2025.back
15. 26Al Jazeera (ed.), “Russia evacuates 4,000 people after dam bursts, floods near Kazakh border,” 6 April 2024; WAM (ed.), “Over 7,700 people evacuated from flooded areas in Russia’s Orenburg Region,” April 2024.back
16. 29M. Rantanen, A. Y. Karpechko, A. Lipponen et al., “The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979,” Communications Earth & Environment, vol. 3, 2022.back
17. 30B. K. Biskaborn, S. L. Smith, J. Noetzli et al., “Permafrost is warming at a global scale,” Nature Communications, vol. 10, article 264, 2019. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4back
18. 32S. Rajendran et al., “Monitoring oil spill in Norilsk, Russia using satellite data,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021.back
19. 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
2. 8System Operator of the Unified Energy System (ed.), Operating results of the unified energy system in 2025, as reported by TASS, 14 January 2026.back
3. 22Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Grain and wheat harvest 2025, excluding new regions, as reported by Interfax, 24 August 2026.back
4. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
5. 24The Moscow Times (ed.), “Rosstat stops publishing monthly population data amid war deaths, demographic crisis.” The Moscow Times, 7 July 2025.back
6. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
7. 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
8. 25U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), M 8.8, 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia Earthquake, event us6000qw60. USGS, Reston, 29 July 2025.back
9. 26Al Jazeera (ed.), “Russia evacuates 4,000 people after dam bursts, floods near Kazakh border,” 6 April 2024; WAM (ed.), “Over 7,700 people evacuated from flooded areas in Russia’s Orenburg Region,” April 2024.back
10. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
11. 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
12. 5Roshydromet (ed.), Report on climate features on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2025. Roshydromet, Moscow, February 2026.back
13. 6The Moscow Times (ed.), “2025 was Russia’s second warmest year on record.” The Moscow Times, 2026, reporting the Roshydromet annual climate report.back
14. 44UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
15. 30B. K. Biskaborn, S. L. Smith, J. Noetzli et al., “Permafrost is warming at a global scale,” Nature Communications, vol. 10, article 264, 2019. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4back
16. 40President of the Russian Federation (ed.), Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation, Decree No. 812 of 26 October 2023. Moscow, 2023.back
17. 43Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), National Action Plan for the first stage of adaptation to climate change up to 2025, Order No. 559-r of 11 March 2023. Moscow, 2023.back
18. 31D. Schepaschenko, E. Moltchanova, S. Fedorov et al., “Russian forest sequesters substantially more carbon than previously reported,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-RUS-CLI-001

   Heat, drought and wildfire in grain and forest regions

   Driver

   record-warm years and seasonal extremes

   Exposure

   grain land, forest, cities downwind of smoke

   Vulnerability

   sink loss and crop loss in the same season

   Capacity

   forest fire monitoring; not reviewed in depth

   Cascade

   CLI → FOO, BIO, HLT, ENE

   Horizon

   annual

2. ReportedEQL 3RSK-RUS-WAT-002

   Spring flood and dam failure on regulated rivers

   Driver

   snowmelt and rain on frozen ground

   Exposure

   river towns below dams

   Vulnerability

   design levels below event levels, as at Orsk

   Capacity

   federal emergency regime; evacuation

   Cascade

   CLI → WAT → INF, HLT

   Horizon

   annual

3. InferredEQL 2RSK-RUS-INF-003

   Permafrost thaw under northern infrastructure

   Driver

   ground warming and Arctic amplification

   Exposure

   northern industry, pipelines, housing

   Vulnerability

   foundation design; monitoring coverage

   Capacity

   operator monitoring systems reported in the NDC

   Cascade

   CLI → INF → ENE, BIO

   Horizon

   5 to 30 years

4. InferredEQL 2RSK-RUS-ENE-004

   Cold extremes and export dependence of the energy system

   Driver

   temperature extremes; external demand and logistics

   Exposure

   power, heat supply, fossil exports

   Vulnerability

   gas-heavy supply; northern heat supply

   Capacity

   large installed base of 271 GW⁸

   Cascade

   TRD → ENE → FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8System Operator of the Unified Energy System (ed.), Operating results of the unified energy system in 2025, as reported by TASS, 14 January 2026.back
2. 5Roshydromet (ed.), Report on climate features on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2025. Roshydromet, Moscow, February 2026.back
3. 26Al Jazeera (ed.), “Russia evacuates 4,000 people after dam bursts, floods near Kazakh border,” 6 April 2024; WAM (ed.), “Over 7,700 people evacuated from flooded areas in Russia’s Orenburg Region,” April 2024.back
4. 43Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), National Action Plan for the first stage of adaptation to climate change up to 2025, Order No. 559-r of 11 March 2023. Moscow, 2023.back
5. 40President of the Russian Federation (ed.), Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation, Decree No. 812 of 26 October 2023. Moscow, 2023.back
6. 1Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution of the Russian Federation. Submission to the UNFCCC, Moscow, September 2025.back
7. 41Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Federal Law No. 296-FZ of 2 July 2021 on Limiting Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Moscow, 2021.back
8. 30B. K. Biskaborn, S. L. Smith, J. Noetzli et al., “Permafrost is warming at a global scale,” Nature Communications, vol. 10, article 264, 2019. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4back
9. 31D. Schepaschenko, E. Moltchanova, S. Fedorov et al., “Russian forest sequesters substantially more carbon than previously reported,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-RUS-HTD-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a summer with persistent heat and low rainfall over a grain-growing federal district, followed by regional wildfire in forest areas

Analogues

the 2010 summer heat in western Russia²⁸; the 2025 spring fire season²⁷

Interventions

none modelled; the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → FOO

   heat and drought cut yields in the grain belt

   analogue 2010²⁸

2. 2

   CLI → BIO

   forest fire area grows; removals fall

   season 2025²⁷

3. 3

   BIO → HLT

   smoke reaches cities and raises respiratory demand

   not quantified

4. 4

   CLI → ENE

   cooling demand raises peak load

   not quantified

5. 5

   FOO → TRD

   harvest and export outlook change

   harvest scale²²

6. 6

   TRD → FIN

   revenue and prices respond

   not quantified

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-RUS-HTD-01 would travel through Russian Federation’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Russian Federation 2026, scenario SCN-RUS-HTD-01 (2026); Russian Federation 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 28D. Barriopedro, E. M. Fischer, J. Luterbacher, R. M. Trigo and R. García-Herrera, “The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe,” Science, vol. 332, pp. 220–224, 2011. doi:10.1126/science.1201224. doi:10.1126/science.1201224back
2. 27The Moscow Times (ed.), “Russia sees milder wildfire season so far in 2025 but experts warn against complacency,” reporting official figures through August 2025 via Kedr.back
3. 22Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Grain and wheat harvest 2025, excluding new regions, as reported by Interfax, 24 August 2026.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for the Russian Federation. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• SUBMITTED
• UNDER REVIEW
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about the Russian Federation’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution of the Russian Federation. Submission to the UNFCCC, Moscow, September 2025.back
2. 46UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.back
3. 41Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Federal Law No. 296-FZ of 2 July 2021 on Limiting Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Moscow, 2021.back
4. 42Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Federal Law No. 34-FZ of 6 March 2022 on an experiment to limit greenhouse gas emissions in selected entities of the Russian Federation. Moscow, 2022.back
5. 40President of the Russian Federation (ed.), Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation, Decree No. 812 of 26 October 2023. Moscow, 2023.back
6. 43Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), National Action Plan for the first stage of adaptation to climate change up to 2025, Order No. 559-r of 11 March 2023. Moscow, 2023.back
7. 10Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2050, Order No. 908-r of 12 April 2025. Moscow, 2025.back
8. 39President of the Russian Federation (ed.), Doctrine of Food Security of the Russian Federation, Decree No. 20 of 21 January 2020. Moscow, 2020.back
9. 45Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
10. 2UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Russian Federation: 2026 National Inventory Document and Common Reporting Tables, 1990 to 2024. Submitted 25 June 2026. UNFCCC, Bonn, 2026.back
11. 24The Moscow Times (ed.), “Rosstat stops publishing monthly population data amid war deaths, demographic crisis.” The Moscow Times, 7 July 2025.back
12. 36H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
13. 35P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
14. 34J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
15. 29M. Rantanen, A. Y. Karpechko, A. Lipponen et al., “The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979,” Communications Earth & Environment, vol. 3, 2022.back
16. 30B. K. Biskaborn, S. L. Smith, J. Noetzli et al., “Permafrost is warming at a global scale,” Nature Communications, vol. 10, article 264, 2019. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4back
17. 7Roshydromet (ed.), Third Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences on the Territory of the Russian Federation: General Summary. Roshydromet, Saint Petersburg, 2022.back
18. 5Roshydromet (ed.), Report on climate features on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2025. Roshydromet, Moscow, February 2026.back
19. 37World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025.back
20. 31D. Schepaschenko, E. Moltchanova, S. Fedorov et al., “Russian forest sequesters substantially more carbon than previously reported,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9back
21. 32S. Rajendran et al., “Monitoring oil spill in Norilsk, Russia using satellite data,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021.back
22. 33J. Hjort, D. Streletskiy, G. Doré et al., “Impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure,” Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, vol. 3, 2022.back
23. 28D. Barriopedro, E. M. Fischer, J. Luterbacher, R. M. Trigo and R. García-Herrera, “The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe,” Science, vol. 332, pp. 220–224, 2011. doi:10.1126/science.1201224. doi:10.1126/science.1201224back
24. 38United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024.back
25. 8System Operator of the Unified Energy System (ed.), Operating results of the unified energy system in 2025, as reported by TASS, 14 January 2026.back
26. 9U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), Russia: country analysis brief. EIA, Washington, last updated 24 July 2025.back
27. 21Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Preliminary grain harvest 2025 in the socio-economic situation report, as reported by TASS, 26 December 2025.back
28. 22Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Grain and wheat harvest 2025, excluding new regions, as reported by Interfax, 24 August 2026.back
29. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
30. 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
31. 3UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), National greenhouse gas inventory data for the period 1990–2024, FCCC/SBI/2026/21. UNFCCC, Bonn, 28 August 2026.back
32. 48S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
33. 49S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
34. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Russian Federation: targets and country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 30 September 2025.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a summer of heat and drought in a grain and forest region affect harvest, wildfire smoke, power demand and health services together?

   INI-RUS-CLI-01 · heat, drought and smoke; first output: dependency graph for two federal districts.

2. A-02

   How resilient are gas, oil and power export and supply chains to cold extremes and to external demand shifts?

   INI-RUS-ENE-02 · energy supply and export resilience; first output: stock-and-route register.

3. A-03

   How exposed are grain output and exports to weather, inputs and logistics at the same time?

   INI-RUS-FOO-03 · grain exposure; first output: input and logistics dependence table.

4. A-04

   What can be said about heat, ageing and health when national series are not released?

   INI-RUS-HLT-04 · health under data limits; first output: bound-and-unbound indicator register.

5. A-05

   How do spring floods and dam condition interact on regulated rivers?

   INI-RUS-WAT-05 · flood and dam safety; first output: basin performance note.

6. A-06

   Where does permafrost thaw reach infrastructure, and what would it cost to monitor?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: exposure scoping note.

7. A-07

   How large and how uncertain is the forest sink in the national inventory?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: sink uncertainty note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

Russian Federation is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in the Russian Federation from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   One National Agenda

   bounded national questions for the year

   DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

2. 02

   National Desk

   coordination, records, routing and continuity

   DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

3. 03

   National Model

   the country as a system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

4. 04

   National Portfolio

   risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

   7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

5. 05

   Foundry

   continuous computational environment

   PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-RUS-2027-Q1

6. 06

   Reports

   quarterly and annual publication

   BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

7. 07

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   after-action, correction and renewal

   OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-RUS-2027-01 · Heat, drought and smoke Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 24The Moscow Times (ed.), “Rosstat stops publishing monthly population data amid war deaths, demographic crisis.” The Moscow Times, 7 July 2025.back
2. 26Al Jazeera (ed.), “Russia evacuates 4,000 people after dam bursts, floods near Kazakh border,” 6 April 2024; WAM (ed.), “Over 7,700 people evacuated from flooded areas in Russia’s Orenburg Region,” April 2024.back
3. 6The Moscow Times (ed.), “2025 was Russia’s second warmest year on record.” The Moscow Times, 2026, reporting the Roshydromet annual climate report.back

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Russia holds abundant renewable freshwater per person and withdraws a small share of it, so water risk is regional and seasonal: spring floods, dam safety and service quality.

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Natural gas supplies more than half of primary energy, thermal plants produce most electricity, and Russia is a large exporter of crude oil, gas and coal.

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Russia grows a large grain crop, and the 2025 harvest rose on 2024. Measured undernourishment is at the reporting floor. Risk lies in weather, inputs and export logistics.

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Life expectancy was 73.4 years in 2024 and 17.8% of residents are 65 or over. Monthly births and deaths and several regional series were withdrawn from Rosstat releases in 2025, so health risk cannot be read at the resolution used in other editions.

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Forest covers just over half of the land area. Protected areas are 8.6% of territory on the series used here, and fire and thaw are the main pressures.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 18World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: freshwater withdrawals (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS) and renewable internal freshwater per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
2. 17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
3. 26Al Jazeera (ed.), “Russia evacuates 4,000 people after dam bursts, floods near Kazakh border,” 6 April 2024; WAM (ed.), “Over 7,700 people evacuated from flooded areas in Russia’s Orenburg Region,” April 2024.back
4. 8System Operator of the Unified Energy System (ed.), Operating results of the unified energy system in 2025, as reported by TASS, 14 January 2026.back
5. 9U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), Russia: country analysis brief. EIA, Washington, last updated 24 July 2025.back
6. 11International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Fact Sheet: Why does Russian oil and gas matter? IEA, Paris, 2022.back
7. 10Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2050, Order No. 908-r of 12 April 2025. Moscow, 2025.back
8. 22Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Grain and wheat harvest 2025, excluding new regions, as reported by Interfax, 24 August 2026.back
9. 39President of the Russian Federation (ed.), Doctrine of Food Security of the Russian Federation, Decree No. 20 of 21 January 2020. Moscow, 2020.back
10. 21Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Preliminary grain harvest 2025 in the socio-economic situation report, as reported by TASS, 26 December 2025.back
11. 19World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
12. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
13. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
14. 24The Moscow Times (ed.), “Rosstat stops publishing monthly population data amid war deaths, demographic crisis.” The Moscow Times, 7 July 2025.back
15. 50World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025.back
16. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
17. 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
18. 45Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
19. 1Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution of the Russian Federation. Submission to the UNFCCC, Moscow, September 2025.back
20. 27The Moscow Times (ed.), “Russia sees milder wildfire season so far in 2025 but experts warn against complacency,” reporting official figures through August 2025 via Kedr.back
21. 47Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.back

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID

MDL-RUS-NATIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent the Russian Federation as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

national scale; not for federal subject or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-RUS-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

50 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-RUS-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• 2026 inventory tables² · net emissions by year
• Roshydromet climate report⁵ · open the original PDF
• System Operator⁸ · open the original release
• Rosstat²²²³ · original releases and scope notes

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition, 2035 net emissions ceiling

Construct

share of the 1990 net base, with removals by forests counted

Unit

Mt CO₂e

Scope

national territory as reported in the NDC

Source

second NDC¹; ceiling derived by Nexus (INFERRED)

Revision

the base value can change if the inventory is recalculated

Known limits

the NDC is conditional on technology access and on balanced development

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution of the Russian Federation. Submission to the UNFCCC, Moscow, September 2025.back
2. 8System Operator of the Unified Energy System (ed.), Operating results of the unified energy system in 2025, as reported by TASS, 14 January 2026.back
3. 2UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Russian Federation: 2026 National Inventory Document and Common Reporting Tables, 1990 to 2024. Submitted 25 June 2026. UNFCCC, Bonn, 2026.back
4. 5Roshydromet (ed.), Report on climate features on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2025. Roshydromet, Moscow, February 2026.back
5. 22Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Grain and wheat harvest 2025, excluding new regions, as reported by Interfax, 24 August 2026.back
6. 23Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Preliminary population estimate as of 1 January 2025, as reported by TASS, 31 January 2025.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD
• MIN

B.3Regional reading, Russian Federation by federal district

Map plates for every federal subject follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

B.4Atlas card, Orenburg Region (Ural River basin)

• region
• river basin
• spring flood
• dam safety

Systems in view

water, housing, roads and emergency response

Defining events

dam failure at Orsk on 5 April 2024; river level 9.6 m against a design level of 5.5 m²⁶

Couplings

CLI → WAT → INF; WAT → HLT

Capability evidence

federal emergency declared; evacuation of more than 7,700 people²⁶

Gaps

deaths and damage in official form; dam condition register; recovery progress

Agenda items

A-05

B.5Russian Federation system card

The card through which the Russian Federation appears in the Eurasia regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

large continental economy with boreal forest, permafrost and energy and grain exports

Population

146.0 million (Rosstat preliminary, 1 January 2025)²³

Trade

crude oil about 11% of world exports in 2023⁹; grain harvest 141.2 Mt in 2025²²

Hazard

Kamchatka earthquake of magnitude 8.8, 29 July 2025²⁵

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-RUS-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 23Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Preliminary population estimate as of 1 January 2025, as reported by TASS, 31 January 2025.back
2. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
3. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
4. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
5. 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
6. 1Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution of the Russian Federation. Submission to the UNFCCC, Moscow, September 2025.back
7. 2UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Russian Federation: 2026 National Inventory Document and Common Reporting Tables, 1990 to 2024. Submitted 25 June 2026. UNFCCC, Bonn, 2026.back
8. 8System Operator of the Unified Energy System (ed.), Operating results of the unified energy system in 2025, as reported by TASS, 14 January 2026.back
9. 9U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), Russia: country analysis brief. EIA, Washington, last updated 24 July 2025.back
10. 22Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Grain and wheat harvest 2025, excluding new regions, as reported by Interfax, 24 August 2026.back
11. 19World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
12. 17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
13. 18World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: freshwater withdrawals (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS) and renewable internal freshwater per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
14. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
15. 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington.back
16. 38United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024.back
17. 5Roshydromet (ed.), Report on climate features on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2025. Roshydromet, Moscow, February 2026.back
18. 6The Moscow Times (ed.), “2025 was Russia’s second warmest year on record.” The Moscow Times, 2026, reporting the Roshydromet annual climate report.back
19. 21Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Preliminary grain harvest 2025 in the socio-economic situation report, as reported by TASS, 26 December 2025.back
20. 25U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), M 8.8, 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia Earthquake, event us6000qw60. USGS, Reston, 29 July 2025.back
21. 26Al Jazeera (ed.), “Russia evacuates 4,000 people after dam bursts, floods near Kazakh border,” 6 April 2024; WAM (ed.), “Over 7,700 people evacuated from flooded areas in Russia’s Orenburg Region,” April 2024.back
22. 32S. Rajendran et al., “Monitoring oil spill in Norilsk, Russia using satellite data,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021.back
23. 27The Moscow Times (ed.), “Russia sees milder wildfire season so far in 2025 but experts warn against complacency,” reporting official figures through August 2025 via Kedr.back

C.150 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution of the Russian Federation. Submission to the UNFCCC, Moscow, September 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Russian Federation: 2026 National Inventory Document and Common Reporting Tables, 1990 to 2024. Submitted 25 June 2026. UNFCCC, Bonn, 2026. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
3. 3UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), National greenhouse gas inventory data for the period 1990–2024, FCCC/SBI/2026/21. UNFCCC, Bonn, 28 August 2026. Cited in chapter 6
4. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Russian Federation: targets and country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 30 September 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
5. 5Roshydromet (ed.), Report on climate features on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2025. Roshydromet, Moscow, February 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
6. 6The Moscow Times (ed.), “2025 was Russia’s second warmest year on record.” The Moscow Times, 2026, reporting the Roshydromet annual climate report. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 7
7. 7Roshydromet (ed.), Third Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences on the Territory of the Russian Federation: General Summary. Roshydromet, Saint Petersburg, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
8. 8System Operator of the Unified Energy System (ed.), Operating results of the unified energy system in 2025, as reported by TASS, 14 January 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
9. 9U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), Russia: country analysis brief. EIA, Washington, last updated 24 July 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
10. 10Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2050, Order No. 908-r of 12 April 2025. Moscow, 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Fact Sheet: Why does Russian oil and gas matter? IEA, Paris, 2022. Cited in chapter 8
12. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington. Cited in chapter 6
13. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
14. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
15. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 8
16. 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
17. 17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
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