- Russian Federation 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Russia’s risk is thermal, hydrological and informational at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Heat, drought and smoke in a grain and forest region
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | 2035 ceiling, upper end | 0.67 × 2,427.2 | ≈ 1,626 Mt CO₂e |
| M2 | 2035 ceiling, lower end | 0.65 × 2,427.2 | ≈ 1,578 Mt CO₂e |
| M3 | 2030 ceiling (up to 70%) | 0.70 × 2,427.2 | ≈ 1,699 Mt CO₂e |
| M4 | Nuclear and hydropower share of generation, 2025 | 18.7 + 16.7 | ≈ 35.4% |
| M5 | Orsk river level above design level, 2024 | 9.6 − 5.5 | 4.1 m |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, National Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-RUS-NATIONAL · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent the Russian Federation as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- national scale; not for federal subject or asset-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
9strong
documented within one season
7moderate
documented, buffered
4weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.
- Cut ID
- NQ-RUS-2026-Q0-1
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 50 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- NQ-RUS-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited publications, pinned by edition | qualified source bindings with versions |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | National Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to the cut |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDC and 1990 base | 1990 to 2023 | Sep 2025 | periodic | next NDC cycle |
| Inventory submission | 1990 to 2024 | Jun 2026 | annual | Apr to Jun 2027 |
| Climate report | 2025 | Feb 2026 | annual | early 2027 |
| Electricity generation | 2025 | Jan 2026 | annual | Jan 2027 |
| Grain harvest | 2025 | Aug 2026 | annual | early 2027 |
| Population estimate | 1 Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | annual | not released for 2026 |
| Indicator series | 2024 to 2025 | Oct 2026 | annual | mid 2027 |
| Kamchatka earthquake | 2025 | Jul 2025 | event | event record |
| Energy country analysis | 2023 to 2024 | Jul 2025 | periodic | next update |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Climate forcing | GOOD | regional rainfall and permafrost |
| Energy | GOOD | stock depth and routes |
| Food | PARTIAL | inputs and exports |
| Water | PARTIAL | dam condition and storage |
| Seismic | PARTIAL | losses and exposure |
| Biodiversity | PARTIAL | condition outside protected areas |
| Health | THIN | heat and cause-of-death series |
| Digital | THIN | dependency mapping |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the Government of the Russian Federation under the Paris Agreement, September 2025. Periodic. Role: binds CLI-001 and BIO-004 and the 1990 net base value.
EVD-RUS-001
Second NDC1
Issued by the System Operator of the unified energy system and reported by the press agency TASS on 14 January 2026. Annual. Role: binds ENE-002. The original release was not opened.
EVD-RUS-002
Electricity operating data8
| Dimension | EVD-RUS-001 | EVD-RUS-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | national, all sectors | unified system only |
| Timeliness | about 3 years after the base period | about 2 weeks after the year |
| Revision | inventory recalculation between submissions | revised with annual reports |
| Method transparency | published inventory method | press summary; original not opened |
| External validation | UNFCCC review process | none identified |
Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| CBD | Convention on Biological Diversity |
| EIA | US Energy Information Administration |
| GDP | gross domestic product |
| LULUCF | land use, land-use change and forestry |
| NDC | nationally determined contribution |
| NID | National Inventory Document |
| Roshydromet | Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring |
| Rosstat | Federal State Statistics Service |
| UNFCCC | United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |
| USGS | United States Geological Survey |
| WDI | World Development Indicators |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the baseline indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-RUS-HTD-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | Q1 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | Q2 2027 |
| A.7 | Federal-subject notes | atlas cards for every federal subject | Q2 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition, 2035 net emissions ceiling
- Construct
- share of the 1990 net base, with removals by forests counted
- Unit
- Mt CO₂e
- Scope
- national territory as reported in the NDC
- Source
- second NDC1; ceiling derived by Nexus (INFERRED)
- Revision
- the base value can change if the inventory is recalculated
- Known limits
- the NDC is conditional on technology access and on balanced development
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution of the Russian Federation. Submission to the UNFCCC, Moscow, September 2025.back
- 8System Operator of the Unified Energy System (ed.), Operating results of the unified energy system in 2025, as reported by TASS, 14 January 2026.back
- 2UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Russian Federation: 2026 National Inventory Document and Common Reporting Tables, 1990 to 2024. Submitted 25 June 2026. UNFCCC, Bonn, 2026.back
- 5Roshydromet (ed.), Report on climate features on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2025. Roshydromet, Moscow, February 2026.back
- 22Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Grain and wheat harvest 2025, excluding new regions, as reported by Interfax, 24 August 2026.back
- 23Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Preliminary population estimate as of 1 January 2025, as reported by TASS, 31 January 2025.back