Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

12 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Russia’s risk is thermal, hydrological and informational at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Heat, drought and smoke in a grain and forest region
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 50 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.150 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution of the Russian Federation. Submission to the UNFCCC, Moscow, September 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Russian Federation: 2026 National Inventory Document and Common Reporting Tables, 1990 to 2024. Submitted 25 June 2026. UNFCCC, Bonn, 2026. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  3. 3UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), National greenhouse gas inventory data for the period 1990–2024, FCCC/SBI/2026/21. UNFCCC, Bonn, 28 August 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  4. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Russian Federation: targets and country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 30 September 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
  5. 5Roshydromet (ed.), Report on climate features on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2025. Roshydromet, Moscow, February 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  6. 6The Moscow Times (ed.), “2025 was Russia’s second warmest year on record.” The Moscow Times, 2026, reporting the Roshydromet annual climate report. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 7
  7. 7Roshydromet (ed.), Third Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences on the Territory of the Russian Federation: General Summary. Roshydromet, Saint Petersburg, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  8. 8System Operator of the Unified Energy System (ed.), Operating results of the unified energy system in 2025, as reported by TASS, 14 January 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), Russia: country analysis brief. EIA, Washington, last updated 24 July 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  10. 10Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2050, Order No. 908-r of 12 April 2025. Moscow, 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Fact Sheet: Why does Russian oil and gas matter? IEA, Paris, 2022. Cited in chapter 8
  12. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington. Cited in chapter 6
  13. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population ages 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  14. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  15. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 8
  16. 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
  17. 17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
  18. 18World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: freshwater withdrawals (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS) and renewable internal freshwater per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 8
  19. 19World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington. Cited in the summary, chapter 8
  20. 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), Russian Federation. Data vintage of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  21. 21Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Preliminary grain harvest 2025 in the socio-economic situation report, as reported by TASS, 26 December 2025. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Grain and wheat harvest 2025, excluding new regions, as reported by Interfax, 24 August 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) (ed.), Preliminary population estimate as of 1 January 2025, as reported by TASS, 31 January 2025. Cited in the summary
  24. 24The Moscow Times (ed.), “Rosstat stops publishing monthly population data amid war deaths, demographic crisis.” The Moscow Times, 7 July 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  25. 25U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), M 8.8, 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia Earthquake, event us6000qw60. USGS, Reston, 29 July 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3
  26. 26Al Jazeera (ed.), “Russia evacuates 4,000 people after dam bursts, floods near Kazakh border,” 6 April 2024; WAM (ed.), “Over 7,700 people evacuated from flooded areas in Russia’s Orenburg Region,” April 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 7, chapter 8
  27. 27The Moscow Times (ed.), “Russia sees milder wildfire season so far in 2025 but experts warn against complacency,” reporting official figures through August 2025 via Kedr. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 8
  28. 28D. Barriopedro, E. M. Fischer, J. Luterbacher, R. M. Trigo and R. García-Herrera, “The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe,” Science, vol. 332, pp. 220–224, 2011. doi:10.1126/science.1201224. doi:10.1126/science.1201224 Cited in chapter 5, chapter 6
  29. 29M. Rantanen, A. Y. Karpechko, A. Lipponen et al., “The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979,” Communications Earth & Environment, vol. 3, 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  30. 30B. K. Biskaborn, S. L. Smith, J. Noetzli et al., “Permafrost is warming at a global scale,” Nature Communications, vol. 10, article 264, 2019. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4 Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  31. 31D. Schepaschenko, E. Moltchanova, S. Fedorov et al., “Russian forest sequesters substantially more carbon than previously reported,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92152-9 Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  32. 32S. Rajendran et al., “Monitoring oil spill in Norilsk, Russia using satellite data,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, 2021. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  33. 33J. Hjort, D. Streletskiy, G. Doré et al., “Impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure,” Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, vol. 3, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39President of the Russian Federation (ed.), Doctrine of Food Security of the Russian Federation, Decree No. 20 of 21 January 2020. Moscow, 2020. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  40. 40President of the Russian Federation (ed.), Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation, Decree No. 812 of 26 October 2023. Moscow, 2023. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  41. 41Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Federal Law No. 296-FZ of 2 July 2021 on Limiting Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Moscow, 2021. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  42. 42Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), Federal Law No. 34-FZ of 6 March 2022 on an experiment to limit greenhouse gas emissions in selected entities of the Russian Federation. Moscow, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43Government of the Russian Federation (ed.), National Action Plan for the first stage of adaptation to climate change up to 2025, Order No. 559-r of 11 March 2023. Moscow, 2023. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  44. 44UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Cited in chapter 3
  45. 45Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  46. 46UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  47. 47Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025. Cited in chapter 8
  48. 48S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  49. 49S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  50. 50World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Cited in chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Russian Federation Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-RUS-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
RUSNR-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-NAT-RUS-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. RUS edition Reports Russian Federation 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; RUS is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Russian Federation Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the Russian Federation’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-RUS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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