Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Reports
Baseline Edition 2026
Complete edition

Saudi Arabia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

The State of Saudi Arabia’s Interdependent Systems

Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.

ReportsSAU

Country Systems Risk and Resilience

Saudi Arabia 2026

The State of Saudi Arabia’s Interdependent Systems

Baseline Edition 2026NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Imprint

Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto
Report number: NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE
Evidence close: 30 September 2026, cut NQ-SAU-2026-Q0-1
Status: Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
DOI and UNI: Issued at deposit
Licence: CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence
Cite as: Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Saudi Arabia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Saudi Arabia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sau/

Contents

·
Executive summary
1
Chapter 1. Saudi Arabia’s risk is heat, water and supply at once
2
Chapter 2. Key findings
3
Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline
4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
5
Chapter 5. Summer heat peak with a mass gathering
6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
7
Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda
8
Chapter 8. Systems in depth
A
Annex A. Methodology
B
Annex B. Data appendix
C
Annex C. References and record

Saudi Arabia 2026
Executive summary

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

5 min read1 figure0 tables11 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

S.1Abstract

Saudi Arabia enters 2027 as a hot, arid, hydrocarbon-exporting economy of 35.3 million people that is building a very large renewable fleet while still burning gas and oil for almost all of its electricity¹³. Its reported emissions were 709 Mt CO₂e in 2021 including land use, 7% above 2019, and energy supplied 81% of the total excluding land use³. The second climate contribution, submitted at the end of 2025, aims to cut 335 Mt CO₂e a year by 2040 against a baseline it does not publish, sets no target for 2035, and names net zero for 2060²³⁴. Gas and oil gave 63% and 35% of electricity in 2024, and solar and wind 2%, although 12.3 GW of renewable capacity was connected by the end of 2025²³⁷. Water is the binding constraint: non-renewable groundwater was 62% of the natural supply in 2023, agriculture was the largest user, and the national submission says around 70% of potable water is desalinated²¹³. Heat is a direct health hazard, as the 1,301 deaths reported during the 2024 Hajj show¹¹. The kingdom imports most of its grain: FAO forecast 15 million tonnes of cereal imports for 2026/27⁵. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state for these systems, maps the couplings through which heat, water, power and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Saudi Arabia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

709 Mt CO₂e in 2021 including land use, 7% above 2019. Later years are not bound.³
Where do emissions stand?Reported
335 Mt CO₂e a year by 2040 against an unpublished baseline; no 2035 target.²⁴
What is the climate aim?Reported
Gas 63%, oil 35%, solar and wind 2% in 2024; 12.3 GW of renewables connected by end 2025.²³
How is electricity made?Reported
Non-renewable groundwater was 62% of the natural supply in 2023.¹³
How exposed is water?Reported
FAO forecast 15 million tonnes of cereal imports for 2026/27. The import share of food is not bound.⁵
How secure is food?Reported
1,301 deaths were reported during the 2024 Hajj. A national heat series is not bound.¹¹
Is heat a health hazard?Reported
Jeddah had 179 mm of rain in one day in November 2022.¹⁰
What does a flash flood look like?Reported
A summer heat peak loading power, desalination and health services together. SCN-SAU-HTW-01
What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

Non-renewable groundwater was 62% of the natural water supply in 2023, and agriculture used 12,298 million m³ of water, of which 9,356 million m³ came from non-renewable groundwater.

Figure S.1Agricultural water use in 2023 (million m³)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
All sources		12,298
Non-renewable groundwater		9,356

Source: GASTAT Water Accounts 2023, read through a press report¹³.

A supply that draws on fossil aquifers is a stock being spent. Satellite gravity data show storage falling by about 13 km³ a year in 2006–2016, and the 2009 national balance showed agriculture taking more than 80% of demand¹⁵¹⁶. Desalination covers the cities but needs power, so water, energy and food are tied together.

S.4At a glance

35.3million

population, 2024¹

63%

of residents under 30, as stated in the national submission²

709Mt CO₂e

emissions incl. land use, 2021³

63%

gas share of electricity, 2024³

≈70%

of potable water desalinated, per the national submission²

>80%

of land is desert, per the national submission²

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Saudi Arabia’s risk: heat, scarce water and a fossil-based power system act together.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most residents risk arrives as a summer of extreme heat, a sudden flood or a water-supply question.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Oil revenue carries the public budget, and insurance and reserve data are not bound.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Saudi Arabia is building quickly on supply and thinner on published data for heat illness, reserves and lifeline continuity.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Saudi Arabia’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Population estimates by nationality, sex and age group, 2024, as compiled by the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme. GASTAT, Riyadh, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
3Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Saudi Arabia. UMD CGS, College Park, 2026, quoting the Biennial Transparency Report of Saudi Arabia (2024) and electricity data. Observation year 2021 for emissions, 2024 for electricity.back
2Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 31 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Saudi Arabia: 2035 NDC assessment, updated 29 May 2026. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
7International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, March 2026, read through a Zawya report of the Saudi Arabia figure. Observation year 2025.back
13General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Water Accounts 2023, reported in “Per capita water consumption falls by 10% to 102 litres a day,” Arab News, Riyadh, 5 January 2025. Observation year 2023.back
11Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement of the Health Minister on deaths during the 2024 Hajj, reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 24 June 2024. Observation year 2024.back
5Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Saudi Arabia, reference date 7 July 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
10National Center for Meteorology (ed.), rainfall record for Jeddah, 24 November 2022, reported in “Jeddah receives 179mm of rainfall, higher figure than 2009 peak,” Arab News, Riyadh, November 2022. Observation year 2022.back
15A. Mohamed, K. Abdelrahman and A. Abdelrady, “Application of time-variable gravity to groundwater storage fluctuations in Saudi Arabia,” Frontiers in Earth Science, vol. 10, article 873352, 2022. Observation years 2002–2016.back
16M. A. Chowdhury and M. M. Al-Zahrani, “Characterising water resources and trends of sector wise water consumptions in Saudi Arabia,” Journal of King Saud University, Engineering Sciences, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 68–82, 2015. Observation year 2009.back

Saudi Arabia 2026
Chapter 1

Saudi Arabia’s risk is heat, water and supply at once

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no region.

7 min read2 figures2 tables14 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

Where is Saudi Arabia’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

Narrative
Headline finding
Lead figure
Five system chapters
Twelve-domain reading
Sector screens
Dependency matrix
Risk objects
Capability ladder
Scenario
Three lenses
Portfolio

1.2The argument

Saudi Arabia is a hot desert country with very little rain, a young and growing population, and an economy that still rests on hydrocarbon exports. This baseline reads its exposure as four forces acting together: extreme heat, scarce water, a power system that runs on gas and oil, and a dependence on imported food and on oil revenue²⁶.

The climate layer is rising. Temperatures rose by about 0.6 °C a decade between 1978 and 2019, and the rise has speeded up in recent decades¹⁷. Regional climate studies project that heat and humidity around the Gulf could approach the limit of human adaptability late in the century under high emissions¹⁸¹⁹. Rain is rare but violent: Jeddah recorded 179 mm in one day in November 2022¹⁰. The National Center for Meteorology described 2025 as within normal ranges, without a published annual anomaly⁹.

Water is the binding constraint. Non-renewable groundwater was 62% of the natural supply in 2023 and agriculture was the largest user¹³. Satellite gravity data show groundwater storage falling by about 13 km³ a year between 2006 and 2016¹⁵. Desalination supplies the cities: the national submission puts it at around 70% of potable water, while the GASTAT accounts give 50% of distributed water, and the two measures differ²¹³.

The energy layer links water, heat and emissions. Gas and oil gave 98% of electricity in 2024 and solar and wind 2%³⁸. Renewable capacity connected to the grid reached 12.3 GW by the end of 2025, with 57.5 GW tendered²⁷. Power also runs desalination, so a summer peak is a water question as well as an energy question.

Beneath these sits dependence on imports and on oil. FAO forecast 15 million tonnes of cereal imports for 2026/27⁵, and oil and oil products were 69% of main products and exports⁶. Heat reaches people directly during the Hajj: 1,301 deaths were reported in 2024, most of them unauthorised pilgrims¹¹.

Figure 1.1How is electricity made, and what has changed? Generation by source (% of total)

Gas generation grew from 224 TWh in 2019 to 288 TWh in 2024, a rise of about 29%. Connected renewable capacity reached 12.3 GW by the end of 2025, so the 2025 mix is likely to differ and is not bound²³⁷.

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Gas		63
Oil		35
Solar and wind		2

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-01-003

288TWh

gas generation, 2024³

12.3GW

renewable capacity connected, end 2025²

57.5GW

renewable capacity tendered²

1.3Mt a year

CO₂ captured by current projects²

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Saudi Arabia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

Strong
Moderate
Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, to	WAT	ENE	FOO	HLT	BIO
WAT Water	·	STRONG nuclear cooling · hydro	STRONG irrigation · rain-fed yield	MODERATE drinking water	STRONG flows · wetlands
ENE Energy	MODERATE pumping · treatment	·	STRONG fuel · fertiliser · cold chain	STRONG facility power · cooling	MODERATE reservoirs · land use
FOO Food	MODERATE withdrawals · nutrients	WEAK biofuel feedstock	·	STRONG nutrition · food safety	STRONG land conversion
HLT Health	WEAK workforce	WEAK workforce	MODERATE labour · disease	·	WEAK residues
BIO Biodiversity	STRONG regulation · filtration	MODERATE fire on lines · biomass	STRONG pollination · soils	MODERATE zoonoses · smoke	·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

01
CLI → ENE → WAT
A heat peak raises power demand, and desalination needs the power.
Inferred summer peak; not bound for 2025
02
CLI → HLT
Heat loads health services and mass gatherings.
Reported Hajj 2024¹¹
03
CLI → INF
A single rain event closes roads and schools in a city.
Reported Jeddah 2022¹⁰
04
WAT → FOO
Fossil groundwater supports irrigated farming.
Reported accounts 2023¹³
05
TRD → FIN
Oil export revenue carries the national budget.
Reported IMF 2026⁶

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
Loop	First direction	Second direction
WAT and BIO	Water to biodiversity: flows · wetlands	Biodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIO	Food to biodiversity: land conversion	Biodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 31 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
6International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Saudi Arabia,” press release 26/267. IMF, Washington DC, 29 July 2026. Observation year 2025–2026.back
17M. Almazroui, “Changes in temperature trends and extremes over Saudi Arabia for the period 1978–2019,” Advances in Meteorology, article 8828421, 2020. Observation years 1978–2019.back
18J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, pp. 197–200, 2016. Observation year projection.back
19J. Lelieveld, Y. Proestos, P. Hadjinicolaou et al., “Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century,” Climatic Change, vol. 137, pp. 245–260, 2016. Observation year projection.back
10National Center for Meteorology (ed.), rainfall record for Jeddah, 24 November 2022, reported in “Jeddah receives 179mm of rainfall, higher figure than 2009 peak,” Arab News, Riyadh, November 2022. Observation year 2022.back
9National Center for Meteorology (ed.), statement that the 2025 climate was moderate, reported in “NCM: Saudi Arabia experienced a moderate climate in 2025,” Riyadh Daily, 30 November 2025. Observation year 2025.back
13General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Water Accounts 2023, reported in “Per capita water consumption falls by 10% to 102 litres a day,” Arab News, Riyadh, 5 January 2025. Observation year 2023.back
15A. Mohamed, K. Abdelrahman and A. Abdelrady, “Application of time-variable gravity to groundwater storage fluctuations in Saudi Arabia,” Frontiers in Earth Science, vol. 10, article 873352, 2022. Observation years 2002–2016.back
3Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Saudi Arabia. UMD CGS, College Park, 2026, quoting the Biennial Transparency Report of Saudi Arabia (2024) and electricity data. Observation year 2021 for emissions, 2024 for electricity.back
8Ember (ed.), Saudi Arabia: electricity data page, updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2024.back
7International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, March 2026, read through a Zawya report of the Saudi Arabia figure. Observation year 2025.back
5Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Saudi Arabia, reference date 7 July 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
11Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement of the Health Minister on deaths during the 2024 Hajj, reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 24 June 2024. Observation year 2024.back

Saudi Arabia 2026
Chapter 2

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables17 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

Non-renewable groundwater was 62% of the natural water supply in 2023, and agriculture used 12,298 million m³ of water, of which 9,356 million m³ came from non-renewable groundwater.

Figure 2.1Agricultural water use in 2023 (million m³)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
All sources		12,298
Non-renewable groundwater		9,356

Source: GASTAT Water Accounts 2023, read through a press report¹³.

Implication

What would move it

The next Water Accounts, any published aquifer balance, and the share of desalination powered by renewables would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001
Greenhouse-gas emissions were 709 Mt CO₂e in 2021 including land use, 7% above 2019; energy supplied 81% of the total excluding land use.³²⁷
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002
The second climate contribution aims to cut 335 Mt CO₂e a year by 2040 against a baseline that is not published, with no 2035 target and net zero in 2060.²³⁴
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007
Temperatures rose by 0.60 °C a decade at the daily maximum and 0.64 °C a decade at the minimum between 1978 and 2019, and projections for the region approach human heat limits.¹⁷¹⁸¹⁹
ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008
Jeddah recorded 179 mm of rain on 24 November 2022, more than the 2009 peak, and flooding closed roads and schools.¹⁰

2.3Energy

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003
Gas and oil gave 63% and 35% of electricity in 2024 and solar and wind 2%; gas generation rose from 224 TWh in 2019 to 288 TWh in 2024.³⁸
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004
Renewable capacity connected to the grid was 12.3 GW at the end of 2025, with 57.5 GW tendered and 10.7 GW under construction.²⁷

2.4Water

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005
Non-renewable groundwater was 62% of the natural water supply in 2023, and agriculture used 12,298 million m³, of which 9,356 million m³ was non-renewable groundwater.¹³¹⁶
ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006
The national submission says around 70% of potable water is desalinated; the GASTAT water accounts give 50% of distributed water for 2023. The two measures differ.²¹³

2.5Health

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009
The Health Minister reported 1,301 deaths during the 2024 Hajj, 83% of them unauthorised pilgrims; the cause split was not given. A midday outdoor-work rule ran from 15 June to 15 September 2025.¹¹¹²

2.6Food

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-FOO-010
FAO forecast cereal import needs of 15 million tonnes for 2026/27, while the 2026 wheat harvest was about 1.1 million tonnes.⁵

2.7Finance

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011
Oil and oil products were 69% of main products and exports; the IMF projects growth of 1.7% in 2026 and a fiscal deficit of 5.8% of GDP in 2025.⁶

2.8Systemic

Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer heat peak that loads power, desalination and health services together during a mass gathering. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

13General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Water Accounts 2023, reported in “Per capita water consumption falls by 10% to 102 litres a day,” Arab News, Riyadh, 5 January 2025. Observation year 2023.back
15A. Mohamed, K. Abdelrahman and A. Abdelrady, “Application of time-variable gravity to groundwater storage fluctuations in Saudi Arabia,” Frontiers in Earth Science, vol. 10, article 873352, 2022. Observation years 2002–2016.back
16M. A. Chowdhury and M. M. Al-Zahrani, “Characterising water resources and trends of sector wise water consumptions in Saudi Arabia,” Journal of King Saud University, Engineering Sciences, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 68–82, 2015. Observation year 2009.back
3Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Saudi Arabia. UMD CGS, College Park, 2026, quoting the Biennial Transparency Report of Saudi Arabia (2024) and electricity data. Observation year 2021 for emissions, 2024 for electricity.back
27Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), First Biennial Transparency Report. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 2024. Observation year 2021.back
2Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 31 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Saudi Arabia: 2035 NDC assessment, updated 29 May 2026. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
17M. Almazroui, “Changes in temperature trends and extremes over Saudi Arabia for the period 1978–2019,” Advances in Meteorology, article 8828421, 2020. Observation years 1978–2019.back
18J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, pp. 197–200, 2016. Observation year projection.back
19J. Lelieveld, Y. Proestos, P. Hadjinicolaou et al., “Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century,” Climatic Change, vol. 137, pp. 245–260, 2016. Observation year projection.back
10National Center for Meteorology (ed.), rainfall record for Jeddah, 24 November 2022, reported in “Jeddah receives 179mm of rainfall, higher figure than 2009 peak,” Arab News, Riyadh, November 2022. Observation year 2022.back
8Ember (ed.), Saudi Arabia: electricity data page, updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2024.back
7International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, March 2026, read through a Zawya report of the Saudi Arabia figure. Observation year 2025.back
11Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement of the Health Minister on deaths during the 2024 Hajj, reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 24 June 2024. Observation year 2024.back
12Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development (ed.), Midday outdoor work ban, 15 June to 15 September 2025, and inspection results reported by Gulf News, Dubai, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
5Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Saudi Arabia, reference date 7 July 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
6International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Saudi Arabia,” press release 26/267. IMF, Washington DC, 29 July 2026. Observation year 2025–2026.back

Saudi Arabia 2026
Chapter 3

Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables13 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Non-renewable groundwater, share of natural water supply

62%

Down from 68% in 2022. Agriculture was the largest user at 12,298 million m³.

Reported2023GASTAT via press¹³

ENE · Energy

Gas share of electricity generation

63%

Oil gave 35%; solar and wind 2%. Gas generation rose from 224 TWh in 2019 to 288 TWh in 2024.

Reported2024UMD³

FOO · Food

Cereal import requirement, forecast

15million t

More than 10% above the five-year average; wheat 4 million t, barley 5 million t, maize 4 million t.

Reported2026/27FAO GIEWS⁵

HLT · Health

Deaths reported during the Hajj

1,301people

The Health Minister said 83% were unauthorised pilgrims who had walked long distances in the sun.

Reported2024Ministry via press¹¹

BIO · Biodiversity

Land in protected areas

18.1%

Marine protected areas 6.49%, against 30% on land and sea by 2030. Later press figures differ.

Reported2024NCW via press²⁰

SYS · Cross-system

Oil and oil products, share of main products and exports

69%

Real GDP growth is projected at 1.7% in 2026 after 4.6% in 2025.

Reported2025–2026IMF⁶

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	Non-renewable groundwater 62% of natural supply; desalination supplies the cities; agriculture the largest user.	WAT → HLT · WAT ↔ ENE	Reported EQL 3
ENE	Gas and oil gave 98% of 2024 electricity; 12.3 GW of renewables connected by end 2025.	ENE → WAT, HLT	Reported EQL 4
FOO	Cereal imports forecast at 15 million t for 2026/27; wheat harvest about 1.1 million t.	FOO ← TRD, WAT	Reported EQL 4
HLT	1,301 deaths reported during the 2024 Hajj; life expectancy 78.8 years in 2024.	HLT ← CLI	Reported EQL 3
BIO	Protected land 18.1% and sea 6.49% in 2024; over 80% of land is desert.	BIO ↔ WAT, FOO	Reported EQL 3
CLI	Warming of about 0.6 °C a decade, 1978–2019; flash floods and dust storms.	forcing on all systems	Reported EQL 4
INF	Desalination, grid and transport networks; condition and redundancy not bound.	INF → all	Expert input EQL 2
FIN	Oil and products 69% of exports; public debt 31.8% of GDP in 2025.	FIN ← TRD, CLI	Reported EQL 4
DAT	Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.	DAT → ENE, WAT	Expert input EQL 2
AIC	Data-centre and industrial demand for power and water not bound.	AIC → ENE, WAT	Expert input EQL 2
MIN	Mining and materials supply chains not bound for this edition.	MIN ← TRD	Expert input EQL 2
TRD	Oil and products are the main export; grain and feed are imported.	TRD → all	Reported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	compound heat, water and supply stress	summer peak; mass gathering	PARTIAL
GS-01	Water	non-renewable groundwater; desalination¹³	aquifer drawdown; plant outage	PARTIAL
GS-02	Energy	gas and oil 98% of electricity³⁸	peak demand; fuel supply	PARTIAL
GS-03	Food	cereal imports 15 million t⁵	import and price shocks	PARTIAL
GS-04	Health	heat illness; mass gatherings¹¹	heat surge; care capacity	PARTIAL
GS-05	Finance	oil 69% of exports⁶	oil price and revenue shock	GOOD
GS-06	Development	young, growing population²	service demand	THIN
GS-07	Climate	warming about 0.6 °C a decade¹⁷	heat and flash flood	PARTIAL
GS-08	Disaster	flash floods, dust storms¹⁰²³	urban flooding	THIN
GS-09	Infrastructure	desalination and grid²	single points of failure	THIN
GS-10	Cities	rapid urban growth²	urban flooding and heat	THIN
GS-11	Biodiversity	protected areas 18.1% on land²⁰	condition outside reserves	THIN
GS-12	Earth observation	national observing network	continuity	THIN
GS-13	Cyber and digital	dependencies not yet mapped	systemic outages	THIN
GS-14	Policy	Vision 2030; second NDC²²⁴	coordination across ministries	PARTIAL
GS-15	Science	peer-reviewed climate and water research¹⁵¹⁷	translation to regions	PARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

13General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Water Accounts 2023, reported in “Per capita water consumption falls by 10% to 102 litres a day,” Arab News, Riyadh, 5 January 2025. Observation year 2023.back
3Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Saudi Arabia. UMD CGS, College Park, 2026, quoting the Biennial Transparency Report of Saudi Arabia (2024) and electricity data. Observation year 2021 for emissions, 2024 for electricity.back
5Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Saudi Arabia, reference date 7 July 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
11Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement of the Health Minister on deaths during the 2024 Hajj, reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 24 June 2024. Observation year 2024.back
20National Center for Wildlife (ed.), Protected Areas System Plan, launched at the 10th Regional Conservation Forum of IUCN, Riyadh, September 2024, as summarised in press reports. Observation year 2024.back
6International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Saudi Arabia,” press release 26/267. IMF, Washington DC, 29 July 2026. Observation year 2025–2026.back
8Ember (ed.), Saudi Arabia: electricity data page, updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2024.back
2Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 31 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
17M. Almazroui, “Changes in temperature trends and extremes over Saudi Arabia for the period 1978–2019,” Advances in Meteorology, article 8828421, 2020. Observation years 1978–2019.back
10National Center for Meteorology (ed.), rainfall record for Jeddah, 24 November 2022, reported in “Jeddah receives 179mm of rainfall, higher figure than 2009 peak,” Arab News, Riyadh, November 2022. Observation year 2022.back
23United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (ed.), COP16 Riyadh: sand and dust storm monitoring initiative, announced 11 December 2024. UNCCD, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024.back
24Council of Economic and Development Affairs (ed.), Saudi Vision 2030. Government of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, 2016. Observation year 2016.back
15A. Mohamed, K. Abdelrahman and A. Abdelrady, “Application of time-variable gravity to groundwater storage fluctuations in Saudi Arabia,” Frontiers in Earth Science, vol. 10, article 873352, 2022. Observation years 2002–2016.back

Saudi Arabia 2026
Chapter 4

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

3 min read0 figures1 table9 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

ReportedEQL 4RSK-SAU-CLI-001
Extreme heat and humidity
Driver
warming of about 0.6 °C a decade; hot, humid Gulf coast
Exposure
outdoor workers, pilgrims, older residents
Vulnerability
dense gatherings; outdoor work; limited shade
Capacity
midday work rule; health-service planning
Cascade
CLI → HLT, ENE → WAT
Horizon
seasonal
ReportedEQL 3RSK-SAU-WAT-002
Groundwater depletion and desalination dependence
Driver
fossil aquifer use; rising demand
Exposure
cities supplied by desalination; irrigated farms
Vulnerability
a few large plants; limited storage
Capacity
Strategic Water Plan 2050; treated-water reuse²
Cascade
WAT → FOO, HLT, ENE
Horizon
5–30 years
ReportedEQL 3RSK-SAU-CLI-003
Flash flood and dust storm
Driver
intense rain on sealed urban areas; strong winds
Exposure
Jeddah and other cities; roads and airports
Vulnerability
drainage built for rare rain
Capacity
weather alerts; regional dust-storm warning work²³
Cascade
CLI → INF → HLT
Horizon
annual
Expert inputEQL 2RSK-SAU-ENE-004
Fuel and power supply under peak demand
Driver
summer peak; fuel or grid disruption
Exposure
power, desalination, industry
Vulnerability
gas and oil 98% of generation
Capacity
12.3 GW of renewables connected²
Cascade
ENE → WAT, HLT, FOO
Horizon
1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
Function	Level	Strongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigation	NOT BOUND	source: building and land-use registers · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Monitoring and observation	EXISTS	national weather statements and a regional dust-storm centre are reported⁹²³
Early warning	LISTED	weather alerts are issued; their reach and use are not bound⁴³
Preparedness and planning	LISTED	heat-stress awareness measures for the Hajj were reported¹¹
Redundancy and reserves	NOT BOUND	source: grain and water reserve data · blocker: not published in bound form
Response	NOT BOUND	source: civil defence and health-emergency records · blocker: not retrieved
Continuity of critical services	NOT BOUND	source: utility restoration records · blocker: not retrieved
Recovery	NOT BOUND	source: reconstruction records after the 2022 floods · blocker: not retrieved
Adaptation	LISTED	the second NDC lists adaptation pillars and a 2050 Strategic Water Plan; delivery not bound²
Social protection	NOT BOUND	source: social-insurance registers · blocker: not reviewed
Finance and insurance	NOT BOUND	source: Insurance Authority statistics · blocker: not retrieved
Institutional coordination	NOT BOUND	source: national disaster-management arrangements · blocker: not reviewed
Technical infrastructure	EXISTS	12.3 GW of renewables connected and large desalination in service²⁷
Workforce	LISTED	inspectors made more than 17,000 visits in summer 2025 to enforce the midday rule¹²
Research capacity	LISTED	peer-reviewed national climate and groundwater studies exist¹⁵¹⁷
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 31 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
23United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (ed.), COP16 Riyadh: sand and dust storm monitoring initiative, announced 11 December 2024. UNCCD, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024.back
9National Center for Meteorology (ed.), statement that the 2025 climate was moderate, reported in “NCM: Saudi Arabia experienced a moderate climate in 2025,” Riyadh Daily, 30 November 2025. Observation year 2025.back
43National Center for Meteorology (ed.), warning on heavy-rain risk from September, reported in “National Center for Meteorology urges vigilance as heavy rain risk rises from September onward,” Arab News, Riyadh, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
11Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement of the Health Minister on deaths during the 2024 Hajj, reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 24 June 2024. Observation year 2024.back
7International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, March 2026, read through a Zawya report of the Saudi Arabia figure. Observation year 2025.back
12Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development (ed.), Midday outdoor work ban, 15 June to 15 September 2025, and inspection results reported by Gulf News, Dubai, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
15A. Mohamed, K. Abdelrahman and A. Abdelrady, “Application of time-variable gravity to groundwater storage fluctuations in Saudi Arabia,” Frontiers in Earth Science, vol. 10, article 873352, 2022. Observation years 2002–2016.back
17M. Almazroui, “Changes in temperature trends and extremes over Saudi Arabia for the period 1978–2019,” Advances in Meteorology, article 8828421, 2020. Observation years 1978–2019.back

Saudi Arabia 2026
Chapter 5

Summer heat peak with a mass gathering

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SAU-HTW-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline: the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers: a hot, humid summer fortnight with record power demand, coinciding with a mass gathering in the west
Analogues: Hajj 2024¹¹; Jeddah flood 2022¹⁰
Interventions: none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state: narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1
CLI → HLT
heat illness rises among pilgrims and outdoor workers
Hajj 2024
2
CLI → ENE
cooling load raises peak power demand
summer peak
3
ENE → WAT
desalination needs power at the same peak
system link
4
WAT → HLT
water for cooling and drinking is stretched
system link
5
HLT → INF
care and transport capacity is stretched
Hajj 2024
6
FIN
costs fall on the public budget
IMF 2026

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SAU-HTW-01 would travel through Saudi Arabia’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Climate to health	Heat illness rises among pilgrims and outdoor workers. Analogue or source: Hajj 2024.	Edition SAU, scenario SCN-SAU-HTW-01, step 1
02 Climate to energy	Cooling load raises peak power demand. Analogue or source: summer peak.	Edition SAU, scenario SCN-SAU-HTW-01, step 2
03 Energy to water	Desalination needs power at the same peak. Analogue or source: system link.	Edition SAU, scenario SCN-SAU-HTW-01, step 3
04 Water to health	Water for cooling and drinking is stretched. Analogue or source: system link.	Edition SAU, scenario SCN-SAU-HTW-01, step 4
05 Health to infrastructure	Care and transport capacity is stretched. Analogue or source: Hajj 2024.	Edition SAU, scenario SCN-SAU-HTW-01, step 5

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Saudi Arabia 2026, scenario SCN-SAU-HTW-01 (2026); Saudi Arabia 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

11Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement of the Health Minister on deaths during the 2024 Hajj, reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 24 June 2024. Observation year 2024.back
10National Center for Meteorology (ed.), rainfall record for Jeddah, 24 November 2022, reported in “Jeddah receives 179mm of rainfall, higher figure than 2009 peak,” Arab News, Riyadh, November 2022. Observation year 2022.back

Saudi Arabia 2026
Chapter 6

Readings from the other desks

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

12 min read0 figures8 tables35 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRA Capital Readiness	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Standards Progress	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Academy Capability	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Index Measurement	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Saudi Arabia’s risk: heat, scarce water and a fossil-based power system act together. Evidence is strongest for emissions targets, water accounts and trade, and weakest for heat illness, infrastructure condition and capability.

CLI-001 · WAT-005 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most residents risk arrives as a summer of extreme heat, a sudden flood or a water-supply question. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how a young, growing and largely urban population is exposed, and how pilgrims and workers are protected.

HLT-009 · CLI-008

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Oil revenue carries the public budget, and insurance and reserve data are not bound. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.

FIN-011 · SYS-012

NEXUS

Synthesis

Saudi Arabia is building quickly on supply and thinner on published data for heat illness, reserves and lifeline continuity. The 2027 programme should map heat–power–water dependencies, test the summer peak, and bind the missing series.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Saudi Arabia. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability have been developed?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests reveal?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What did the year establish, and what changes next?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
GCRI Canada	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Saudi Arabia	national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups	national Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Most of the natural supply is fossil groundwater, and the cities live on desalinated seawater. The baseline treats water as a coupling problem: every cubic metre desalinated needs power, and every irrigated hectare draws on the aquifer.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Water is the stock that is being spent

In a country this hot, extreme heat is not an exception. It sets how outdoor work, pilgrimage and urban life are organised, and it rises with warming. Published series on heat illness are the missing evidence.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Heat is a design condition

The second climate contribution names 2040 and 2060 but not the baseline behind them. A baseline edition can say what is observed and name what is missing, so that later editions can test progress.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

A target without a baseline

Renewable capacity has grown fast and still gives a small share of generation, while grain and feed arrive by sea. Energy and food security are trade questions as much as domestic ones.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Supply is built, demand is imported

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.3Q1 2027 readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First Q1 2027 entry
E1	National risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	NWG delivery register	no groups yet	first monthly outputs
E5	NNC capability register	membership opens in Q1 2027	first contributions
E6	NLC questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	environment prepared	first sealed cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first correction cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
SUBMITTED
UNDER REVIEW
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Paris Agreement · second NDC, 335 Mt CO₂e a year by 2040, net zero 2060²³⁵	UNFCCC · Saudi Arabia	national	SUBMITTED 2025	emissions pathway
Updated first NDC, 278 Mt CO₂e a year by 2030²⁶	UNFCCC · Saudi Arabia	national	SUBMITTED 2021	emissions pathway
Saudi Vision 2030²⁴	Government of Saudi Arabia	national	PUBLISHED 2016	economic diversification
Saudi Green Initiative²⁵	Government of Saudi Arabia	national	LAUNCHED 2021	land and sea protection
National Renewable Energy Program²	Government of Saudi Arabia	national	IN OPERATION	power mix
Midday outdoor-work rule, 15 June to 15 September¹²	Ministry of Human Resources	national	IN FORCE 2025	heat protection
Kunming-Montreal Framework³⁴	CBD	international	ADOPTED 2022	30by30
Sendai Framework³³	UNDRR	international	ADOPTED 2015	disaster risk reduction

Changed since 2024

Saudi Arabia submitted its second NDC on 31 December 2025²⁴
The midday outdoor-work rule applied from 15 June to 15 September 2025¹²
UNCCD COP16 met in Riyadh in December 2024 and launched a dust-storm monitoring initiative²³

To watch in 2027

Publication of the baseline behind the 2040 aim²⁴
Renewable commissioning against the 57.5 GW tendered²
The next Biennial Transparency Report²⁷

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about Saudi Arabia’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Table 6.5Science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
IPCC Synthesis Report³²	assessment	2023	context	forcing
McElwee et al. (eds.)³⁷	assessment	2024	framework	nexus interlinkages
Zscheischler et al.³⁸	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
Almazroui¹⁷	journal article	2020	supports	warming trend
Pal and Eltahir¹⁸	journal article	2016	supports	heat limits
Foundational Edition⁴⁰	edition	2026	framework	method and positions
Global baseline⁴¹	edition	2026	framework	global context

Table 6.6Institutional reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Lelieveld et al.¹⁹	journal article	2016	supports	heat extremes
Mohamed et al.¹⁵	journal article	2022	supports	groundwater
Chowdhury and Al-Zahrani¹⁶	journal article	2015	supports	water demand
WMO State of the Climate in Asia⁴⁴	assessment	2025	context	regional climate
IEA Global Energy Review³⁶	assessment	2025	context	energy

Table 6.7Official statistics and national sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Population estimates¹⁴²	GASTAT · UN DESA	2024	supports	profile
Water Accounts¹³	GASTAT	2023	supports	water
Household Environment Statistics¹⁴	GASTAT	2024	context	drinking water
Health status bulletin²²	GASTAT	2024	context	health
Life expectancy statement²¹ and global statistics³⁹	Ministry of Health · WHO	2025	context	health

Table 6.8Industry, loss data and international sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Second NDC²	Government of Saudi Arabia	2025	supports	climate aim
Article IV consultation⁶	IMF	2026	supports	economy
GIEWS country brief⁵	FAO	2026	supports	food
Capacity statistics⁷	IRENA	2026	supports	renewables

Where the evidence agrees

Saudi Arabia is warming and heat extremes are rising¹⁷¹⁹
Groundwater storage has been falling¹⁵¹⁶
Electricity still comes almost wholly from gas and oil³⁸

Where it is unsettled

How much of the potable supply is desalinated, given two published measures²¹³
What baseline the 2040 aim is set against²⁴
How many heat deaths occur among residents and workers

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 31 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
35UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.back
26Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Updated First Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 2021. Observation year 2021.back
24Council of Economic and Development Affairs (ed.), Saudi Vision 2030. Government of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, 2016. Observation year 2016.back
25Government of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Saudi Green Initiative: protecting land and sea. Riyadh, launched 2021, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2021.back
12Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development (ed.), Midday outdoor work ban, 15 June to 15 September 2025, and inspection results reported by Gulf News, Dubai, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
33UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Saudi Arabia: 2035 NDC assessment, updated 29 May 2026. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
23United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (ed.), COP16 Riyadh: sand and dust storm monitoring initiative, announced 11 December 2024. UNCCD, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024.back
27Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), First Biennial Transparency Report. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 2024. Observation year 2021.back
32H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
37P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 back
38J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
17M. Almazroui, “Changes in temperature trends and extremes over Saudi Arabia for the period 1978–2019,” Advances in Meteorology, article 8828421, 2020. Observation years 1978–2019.back
18J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, pp. 197–200, 2016. Observation year projection.back
40S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
41S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
19J. Lelieveld, Y. Proestos, P. Hadjinicolaou et al., “Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century,” Climatic Change, vol. 137, pp. 245–260, 2016. Observation year projection.back
15A. Mohamed, K. Abdelrahman and A. Abdelrady, “Application of time-variable gravity to groundwater storage fluctuations in Saudi Arabia,” Frontiers in Earth Science, vol. 10, article 873352, 2022. Observation years 2002–2016.back
16M. A. Chowdhury and M. M. Al-Zahrani, “Characterising water resources and trends of sector wise water consumptions in Saudi Arabia,” Journal of King Saud University, Engineering Sciences, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 68–82, 2015. Observation year 2009.back
44World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025.back
36International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
1General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Population estimates by nationality, sex and age group, 2024, as compiled by the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme. GASTAT, Riyadh, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
42United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024.back
13General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Water Accounts 2023, reported in “Per capita water consumption falls by 10% to 102 litres a day,” Arab News, Riyadh, 5 January 2025. Observation year 2023.back
14General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Household Environment Statistics 2024, reported by Saudi Gazette, Riyadh, November 2025. Observation year 2024.back
22General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Health Status Statistics Bulletin 2024, reported by Zawya, Dubai, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
21Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement that life expectancy reached 78.8 years in 2024, reported by Asharq Al-Awsat, 21 April 2025. Observation year 2024.back
39World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025.back
6International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Saudi Arabia,” press release 26/267. IMF, Washington DC, 29 July 2026. Observation year 2025–2026.back
5Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Saudi Arabia, reference date 7 July 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
7International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, March 2026, read through a Zawya report of the Saudi Arabia figure. Observation year 2025.back
3Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Saudi Arabia. UMD CGS, College Park, 2026, quoting the Biennial Transparency Report of Saudi Arabia (2024) and electricity data. Observation year 2021 for emissions, 2024 for electricity.back
8Ember (ed.), Saudi Arabia: electricity data page, updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2024.back

Saudi Arabia 2026
Chapter 7

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

7.1Questions for the operational series

A-01
How would a summer heat peak load power, desalination and health services together, and how much margin exists in each?
INI-SAU-CLI-01 · heat–power–water continuity; first output: dependency graph for two regions.
A-02
How much of the water supply is non-renewable, region by region, and how fast is it drawn down?
INI-SAU-WAT-02 · groundwater and desalination; first output: supply-source register by region.
A-03
How much fuel is burned for power and desalination, and what does the 2025 generation mix show?
INI-SAU-ENE-03 · power mix and fuel; first output: generation and fuel table for 2025.
A-04
How concentrated are grain and feed imports, by commodity and origin?
INI-SAU-FOO-04 · import exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.
A-05
How is heat illness counted among residents, workers and pilgrims?
INI-SAU-HLT-05 · heat and mass gatherings; first output: definitions and counting-rule note.
A-06
How do flash floods and dust storms affect cities and lifelines?
INI-SAU-CLI-02 · workstream; first output: event register 2018–2026.
A-07
What would a quantified 2035 emissions pathway need from the power and industry sectors?
To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.
A-08
Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?
National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
ID	Object	Kind	Question	State
INI-SAU-CLI-01	Heat–power–water continuity	Initiative	A-01	PROPOSED
INI-SAU-WAT-02	Groundwater and desalination	Initiative	A-02	PROPOSED
INI-SAU-ENE-03	Power mix and fuel	Initiative	A-03	PROPOSED
INI-SAU-FOO-04	Food import exposure	Initiative	A-04	PROPOSED
INI-SAU-HLT-05	Heat and mass gatherings	Initiative	A-05	PROPOSED
PRJ-SAU-CLI-01a	Two-region heat, power and water dependency graph	Project	A-01	PROPOSED
MSN-SAU-2027-01	Summer heat peak Universe mission	Mission	A-01	Candidate

7.3The pathway

Saudi Arabia is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Saudi Arabia from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

01
One National Agenda
bounded national questions for the year
DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment
02
National Desk
coordination, records, routing and continuity
DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027
03
National Model
the country as a system of systems
v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut
04
National Portfolio
risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions
7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment
05
Foundry
continuous computational environment
PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-SAU-2027-Q1
06
Reports
quarterly and annual publication
BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda
07
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027
08
Evidence and correction
after-action, correction and renewal
OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

01
Mandate
02
Core Build · 1 month
03
Action · 1 week
04
Evidence seal
05
Portfolio correction
06
Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
Item	Record	State	Timing
F1	Annual mandate record	PLANNED	after the Q2 2027 alignment
F2	Core Build record	PLANNED	one month before the exercise
F3	Exercise evidence	PLANNED	during the Action week
F4	Decision packets	PLANNED	exercise state only
F5	Proof receipts	PLANNED	scoped to each recorded check
F6	After-action report	PLANNED	within one quarter
F7	Upgrade docket	PLANNED	routed to the Portfolio
F8	Portfolio renewal	PLANNED	Q4 2027 annual edition
F9	Public synthesis	PLANNED	public-safe extracts only

Mission

ID: MSN-SAU-2027-01 · Summer heat peak Universe mission
Role spine: Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors: to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
Finding	Routed to	Purpose	Class
CLI-001 · emissions	public record	reference for the 2027 series	PUBLIC
CLI-002 · climate aim	INI-SAU-ENE-03	power mix and fuel	PUBLIC
ENE-003 · generation	INI-SAU-ENE-03	power mix and fuel	PUBLIC
WAT-005 · groundwater	INI-SAU-WAT-02	supply-source register	PUBLIC
FOO-010 · cereal imports	INI-SAU-FOO-04	import exposure	PUBLIC
HLT-009 · heat and Hajj	INI-SAU-HLT-05	heat and mass gatherings	PUBLIC
FIN-011 · oil revenue	INI-SAU-CLI-01 · key F review	fiscal exposure	PUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathway	MSN-SAU-2027-01	Universe candidate	CONSORTIUM

Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
Class	Where it goes	Who can see it
PUBLIC	the published edition and its evidence bundle	anyone
CONSORTIUM	governed rooms of the national pathway	consortium members under agreement
CONTROLLED	need-to-know channels	named competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
Feed	Producer	Latency	Feeds into
Weather alerts and rainfall	National Center for Meteorology	real time	CLI findings
Sand and dust storm forecasts	regional centre in Jeddah	daily	RSK-SAU-CLI-003
Heat-season work inspections	Ministry of Human Resources	seasonal	HLT-009
Water accounts	GASTAT	annual	WAT-005
Renewable capacity	IRENA	annual	ENE-004
Grain outlook	FAO GIEWS	periodic	FOO-010
Fiscal and growth outlook	IMF	annual	FIN-011

Escalation routes

none · keep monitoring
research question
project
risk object
quarterly publication
signal report

Table 7.6Signals at baseline
ID	Signal	Corroboration	Systems	Route
SIG-SAU-001	Gas generation rose from 224 TWh to 288 TWh between 2019 and 2024³	CORROBORATED	ENE · CLI	initiative A-03
SIG-SAU-002	Non-renewable groundwater fell from 68% to 62% of supply between 2022 and 2023¹³	CORROBORATED	WAT	initiative A-02
SIG-SAU-003	Heat deaths reported in the Hajj of 2024¹¹	CORROBORATED	HLT · CLI	initiative A-05

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

3Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Saudi Arabia. UMD CGS, College Park, 2026, quoting the Biennial Transparency Report of Saudi Arabia (2024) and electricity data. Observation year 2021 for emissions, 2024 for electricity.back
13General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Water Accounts 2023, reported in “Per capita water consumption falls by 10% to 102 litres a day,” Arab News, Riyadh, 5 January 2025. Observation year 2023.back
11Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement of the Health Minister on deaths during the 2024 Hajj, reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 24 June 2024. Observation year 2024.back

Saudi Arabia 2026
Chapter 8

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables18 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Saudi Arabia has very little rain and almost no permanent rivers. Most of the natural supply is fossil groundwater, and the cities rely on desalinated seawater.

62%

non-renewable share of natural supply, 2023¹³

12,298million m³

agricultural water use, 2023¹³

102.1litres

household use per person a day, 2023¹³

Table 8.1State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Groundwater	non-renewable groundwater 62% of natural supply, down from 68% in 2022	¹³	Reported
Storage	groundwater storage fell by about 13 km³ a year in 2006–2016	¹⁵	Reported
Desalination	about 70% of potable water per the national submission; 50% of distributed water per the accounts	²¹³	Reported
Renewable supply	renewable water per person not bound	FAO AQUASTAT²⁸	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

ENE → WAT power for desalination
WAT → FOO irrigation from aquifers
WAT → HLT drinking water
CLI → WAT heat and rare rain

Evidence to bind in 2027

renewable water per person
desalination capacity in use

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Gas and oil gave 98% of electricity in 2024, yet 12.3 GW of renewable capacity was connected by the end of 2025 and much more is tendered.

63%

gas share of electricity, 2024³

12.3GW

renewables connected, end 2025²

57.5GW

renewables tendered²

Table 8.2State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Power mix	gas 63%, oil 35%, solar and wind 2% in 2024	³⁸	Reported
Capacity	IRENA records 12,332 MW of renewables at the end of 2025	⁷	Reported
Capture	current CCUS projects capture 1.3 Mt CO₂ a year	²	Reported
2025 mix	generation shares for 2025 not bound	electricity regulator³⁰	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

ENE → WAT desalination power
CLI → ENE peak demand
ENE → HLT cooling
TRD → ENE fuel and equipment

Evidence to bind in 2027

2025 generation mix
fuel burned for power and desalination

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Saudi Arabia grows little of its own grain and relies on imports for most cereals, so food security is a trade question as much as a water question.

15million t

cereal imports forecast, 2026/27⁵

≈1.1million t

wheat harvest, 2026⁵

0.7%

food inflation, May 2026⁵

Table 8.3State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Imports	wheat 4 million t, barley 5 million t, maize 4 million t forecast for 2026/27	⁵	Reported
Production	the 2026 wheat harvest was about 1.1 million t, near the average	⁵	Reported
Prices	wheat procurement price SAR 1,450 a tonne; food inflation below 1% in early 2026	⁵	Reported
Import share	share of food imported and concentration by origin not bound	USDA and customs data⁴⁵	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

TRD → FOO import dependence
WAT → FOO irrigation
ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
CLI → FOO heat and dust

Evidence to bind in 2027

import share of food
concentration by commodity and origin

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Life expectancy has risen and the population is young, but extreme heat is a direct hazard for pilgrims, outdoor workers and older residents.

78.8years

life expectancy, 2024²¹

1,301deaths

reported during the Hajj, 2024¹¹

9.1%

adults with diabetes, self-reported, 2024²²

Table 8.4State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Heat and the Hajj	1,301 deaths reported in 2024; 83% unauthorised pilgrims; cause split not given	¹¹	Reported
Outdoor work	midday work ban 15 June to 15 September 2025; 1,910 breaches found by late August	¹²	Reported
Population	35.3 million; about 2.8% aged 65 or over	¹	Estimated
Heat illness	national heat-death and heat-illness series not bound	Ministry of Health³¹	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

CLI → HLT heat
ENE → HLT cooling and power
WAT → HLT drinking water
INF → HLT transport and care

Evidence to bind in 2027

national heat-illness series
counting rules for pilgrims and workers

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Over 80% of the land is desert, and protection is expanding on land and at sea, with a 30% aim for 2030.

18.1%

of land protected, 2024²⁰

6.49%

of sea protected, 2024²⁰

≈4million ha

restoration ambition²

Table 8.5State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Protection	land 18.1% and sea 6.49% in 2024; later press figures differ	²⁰	Reported
Target	30% of land and sea by 2030	²⁵	Reported
Restoration	about 4 million ha of land restoration and rehabilitation planned	²	Reported
Condition	not bound outside protected areas	n/a	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

BIO → WAT watershed and coastal regulation
BIO → FOO fisheries and soils
CLI → BIO heat and dust

Evidence to bind in 2027

condition outside protected areas
marine ecosystem change

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

13General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Water Accounts 2023, reported in “Per capita water consumption falls by 10% to 102 litres a day,” Arab News, Riyadh, 5 January 2025. Observation year 2023.back
15A. Mohamed, K. Abdelrahman and A. Abdelrady, “Application of time-variable gravity to groundwater storage fluctuations in Saudi Arabia,” Frontiers in Earth Science, vol. 10, article 873352, 2022. Observation years 2002–2016.back
2Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 31 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
28Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), AQUASTAT: Saudi Arabia country data. FAO, Rome, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
3Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Saudi Arabia. UMD CGS, College Park, 2026, quoting the Biennial Transparency Report of Saudi Arabia (2024) and electricity data. Observation year 2021 for emissions, 2024 for electricity.back
8Ember (ed.), Saudi Arabia: electricity data page, updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2024.back
7International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, March 2026, read through a Zawya report of the Saudi Arabia figure. Observation year 2025.back
30Electricity and Cogeneration Regulatory Authority (ed.), Annual Statistical Booklet for Electricity and Seawater Desalination. ECRA, Riyadh, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
5Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Saudi Arabia, reference date 7 July 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
45United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service (ed.), Saudi Arabia: Grain and Feed Annual. USDA FAS, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
21Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement that life expectancy reached 78.8 years in 2024, reported by Asharq Al-Awsat, 21 April 2025. Observation year 2024.back
11Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement of the Health Minister on deaths during the 2024 Hajj, reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 24 June 2024. Observation year 2024.back
22General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Health Status Statistics Bulletin 2024, reported by Zawya, Dubai, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
12Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development (ed.), Midday outdoor work ban, 15 June to 15 September 2025, and inspection results reported by Gulf News, Dubai, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
1General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Population estimates by nationality, sex and age group, 2024, as compiled by the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme. GASTAT, Riyadh, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
31Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Statistical Yearbook. MoH, Riyadh, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
20National Center for Wildlife (ed.), Protected Areas System Plan, launched at the 10th Regional Conservation Forum of IUCN, Riyadh, September 2024, as summarised in press reports. Observation year 2024.back
25Government of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Saudi Green Initiative: protecting land and sea. Riyadh, launched 2021, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2021.back

Saudi Arabia 2026
Annex A

Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

9 min read0 figures12 tables8 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Growth in gas generation, 2019 to 2024	288 ÷ 224 − 1	≈ 28.6%
(2)	Non-renewable share of agricultural water use, 2023	9,356 ÷ 12,298	≈ 76%
(3)	Share of residents aged 65 or over, 2024	986,505 ÷ 35,300,280	≈ 2.8%
(4)	Difference between the 2040 and 2030 aims	335 − 278	57 Mt

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID: MDL-SAU-NATIONAL · v0.1
Purpose: represent Saudi Arabia as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: national scale; not for region or asset-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

9strong

documented within one season

7moderate

documented, buffered

4weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID: NQ-SAU-2026-Q0-1
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 45 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: NQ-SAU-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
Element	Baseline 2026	Q1 2027
Sources	cited publications, pinned by edition	qualified source bindings with versions
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	National Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to the cut
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
GHG emissions	2021	2024	biennial	next report
Population	2024	2025	annual	annual
Electricity mix	2024	2025	annual	annual
Renewable capacity	2025	Apr 2026	annual	Apr 2027
Water Accounts	2023	Jan 2025	annual	annual
Cereal outlook	2026/27	Jul 2026	periodic	next brief
Fiscal and growth	2025–2026	Jul 2026	annual	mid-2027
Hajj deaths	2024	Jun 2024	annual	annual
Protected areas	2024	Sep 2024	periodic	periodic

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Climate forcing	PARTIAL	annual anomaly; heat-illness link
Energy	PARTIAL	2025 generation mix; fuel burned
Water	PARTIAL	renewable supply; desalination capacity
Food	PARTIAL	import share; concentration
Health	THIN	heat deaths and illness series
Biodiversity	THIN	condition outside reserves
Finance	GOOD	insurance cover
Digital	THIN	dependency mapping

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by the Government of Saudi Arabia to the UNFCCC, 31 December 2025. Periodic. Role: binds the 335 Mt aim, the renewable capacity figures and the desalination statement, each as a national statement.

EVD-SAU-001

Second NDC²

Issued by the General Authority for Statistics. Annual. Role: binds the non-renewable groundwater share and agricultural use. The release was read through a press report, so the primary tables are not bound.

EVD-SAU-002

GASTAT Water Accounts 2023¹³

Table A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-SAU-001	EVD-SAU-002
Completeness	national scope; baseline not published	national accounts; region detail not read
Timeliness	submitted December 2025	about 14 months after the accounting year
Revision	periodic	annual back-revision
Method transparency	baseline and model not disclosed	accounts method not read
External validation	independent assessments exist³⁴	not bound

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

Biennial Transparency Report²⁷, inventory time series to the latest year
FAO AQUASTAT²⁸, renewable water per person
Saudi Water Authority and ministry data²⁹, desalination capacity in use
Electricity regulator statistics³⁰, 2025 generation mix

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.8Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.9The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.10Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
CCUS	carbon capture, utilisation and storage
FAO	Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
GASTAT	General Authority for Statistics
GIEWS	Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture
GRACE	Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment
IMF	International Monetary Fund
IRENA	International Renewable Energy Agency
MoH	Ministry of Health
NCM	National Center for Meteorology
NCW	National Center for Wildlife
NDC	nationally determined contribution
SWA	Saudi Water Authority
UMD	University of Maryland, Center for Global Sustainability
UNCCD	United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification

A.10Technical annex

Table A.12Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the baseline indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-SAU-HTW-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	Q1 2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	Q2 2027
A.7	Regional notes	atlas cards for every region	Q2 2027
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition, gas share of electricity generation

Construct: gas-fired generation divided by total electricity generation
Unit: per cent
Scope: calendar year, national
Source: UMD assessment quoting generation data³
Revision: annual back-revision by the data issuer
Known limits: Ember and the assessment differ in rounding; 2025 not bound

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 31 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
13General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Water Accounts 2023, reported in “Per capita water consumption falls by 10% to 102 litres a day,” Arab News, Riyadh, 5 January 2025. Observation year 2023.back
3Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Saudi Arabia. UMD CGS, College Park, 2026, quoting the Biennial Transparency Report of Saudi Arabia (2024) and electricity data. Observation year 2021 for emissions, 2024 for electricity.back
4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Saudi Arabia: 2035 NDC assessment, updated 29 May 2026. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
27Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), First Biennial Transparency Report. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 2024. Observation year 2021.back
28Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), AQUASTAT: Saudi Arabia country data. FAO, Rome, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
29Saudi Water Authority and Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture (eds.), annual statistics on desalinated water production. Riyadh, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
30Electricity and Cogeneration Regulatory Authority (ed.), Annual Statistical Booklet for Electricity and Seawater Desalination. ECRA, Riyadh, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back

Saudi Arabia 2026
Annex B

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

9 min read0 figures7 tables20 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Baseline indicator set
Indicator	Value	Unit	Year	State	Source
GHG emissions incl. land use	709	Mt CO₂e	2021	Reported	³
Change since 2019	+7	%	2021	Reported	³
Energy share of emissions excl. land use	81	%	2021	Reported	³
Gas share of electricity	63	%	2024	Reported	³
Oil share of electricity	35	%	2024	Reported	³
Solar and wind share of electricity	2	%	2024	Reported	³⁸
Gas generation	288	TWh	2024	Reported	³
Renewable capacity connected	12.3	GW	2025	Reported	²⁷
Non-renewable groundwater share of supply	62	%	2023	Reported	¹³
Agricultural water use	12,298	million m³	2023	Reported	¹³
Household water use per person	102.1	litres a day	2023	Reported	¹³
Cereal import requirement	15	million t	2026/27	Reported	⁵
Wheat production	≈1.1	million t	2026	Reported	⁵
Population	35.3	million	2024	Reported	¹
Aged 65 or over	≈2.8	%	2024	Estimated	¹
Deaths reported during the Hajj	1,301	deaths	2024	Reported	¹¹
Life expectancy	78.8	years	2024	Reported	²¹
Protected land	18.1	%	2024	Reported	²⁰
Protected sea	6.49	%	2024	Reported	²⁰
Net emissions with land use, latest year	Not bound	Mt CO₂e	n/a	NOT BOUND	²⁷
Renewable water per person	Not bound	m³	n/a	NOT BOUND	²⁸
Share of food imported	Not bound	%	n/a	NOT BOUND	⁴⁵
National heat deaths and illness	Not bound	cases	n/a	NOT BOUND	³¹

Indicators, CSV Indicators, JSON

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

Table B.3National source register
Source	Category	Coverage	Period	Cadence	Role
Population estimates¹	national statistics	national	2024	annual	profile
Second NDC²	government submission	national	2025	periodic	CLI
Independent NDC assessment³⁴	research institutes	national	2026	periodic	CLI · ENE
Grain outlook⁵	UN agency	national	2026	periodic	FOO
Article IV⁶	international financial institution	national	2026	annual	FIN
Capacity statistics⁷	international agency	national	2025	annual	ENE
Power data⁸	independent think tank	national	2024	annual	ENE
Meteorology statement⁹¹⁰	national technical authority via press	national	2022–2025	per event	CLI
Hajj statement¹¹	ministry via press	regional	2024	annual	HLT
Water Accounts¹³¹⁴	national statistics via press	national	2023–2024	annual	WAT
Protected areas²⁰	national agency via press	national	2024	periodic	BIO

B.3Regional reading, Saudi Arabia by region

Map plates for every region follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

Population, 2024¹

35.3million

residents

19.6million

Saudi nationals

15.7million

non-Saudi residents

≈2.8%

aged 65 or over

Table B.4Regional reading, Saudi Arabia by region
Region	Principal hazards	Systems most exposed	Baseline evidence
Riyadh and Qassim (centre)	heat, dust storms, flash flood	power, water, food	no event cited in this edition
Makkah, Madinah and Al-Baha (west)	heat, flash flood	health, transport, water	Hajj 2024¹¹; Jeddah 2022¹⁰
Eastern Province	heat, humidity, dust	energy, desalination	no event cited in this edition
Asir, Jazan and Najran (south-west)	flash flood	roads, farms	no event cited in this edition
Tabuk, Hail, Al-Jouf and Northern Borders (north)	cold spells, dust	groundwater farming	no event cited in this edition

B.4Atlas card, Makkah Region

region
western coast
mass gathering
flash flood

Systems in view: health, water, roads and power
Defining events: Hajj 2024 with 1,301 deaths reported¹¹; Jeddah rain of 179 mm on 24 November 2022¹⁰
Couplings: CLI → HLT; CLI → INF; ENE → WAT
Capability evidence: heat-stress awareness for the Hajj reported¹¹; response records not bound
Gaps: heat illness series; drainage condition; regional water supply
Agenda items: A-01 · A-05

The Health Minister reported 1,301 deaths in 2024, most of them unauthorised pilgrims, and said many had walked long distances in direct sun [11].

HEALTH

Heat during the Hajj

Jeddah recorded 179 mm in one day in 2022, more than the 2009 peak, and roads and schools closed [10].

ROADS

One day of rain

NOT BOUND. Source: Saudi Water Authority and GASTAT regional tables. Blocker: not retrieved by evidence close.

WATER

Supply by region

B.5Saudi Arabia system card

The card through which Saudi Arabia appears in the Middle East and North Africa regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Table B.5Saudi Arabia system card
System	Baseline state	Coupling to watch	Coverage
Water	non-renewable groundwater 62%¹³	power for desalination	PARTIAL
Energy	gas and oil 98% of generation³⁸	summer peak	PARTIAL
Food	cereal imports 15 million t⁵	import shocks	PARTIAL
Health	heat; mass gatherings¹¹	heat surge	THIN
Biodiversity	protected land 18.1%²⁰	land use and aridity	THIN

Context

Archetype: hot desert, hydrocarbon-exporting economy with a young population
Population: 35.3 million (2024)¹
Trade: oil and products 69% of main exports; grain imported⁵⁶
Hazard: extreme heat; flash flood¹⁰¹⁷

Saudi Arabia’s card sits beside its neighbours’; shared basins, grids, corridors and supply chains are read as one regional system.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGIONAL EDITION

One regional system

Saudi evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers, so a correction travels everywhere at once.

GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES

Same findings, same IDs

In the global edition Saudi Arabia is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

GLOBAL FLAGSHIP

Peers, not ranks

B.6Licences

Table B.6Licences of each kind of material
Material	Licence
Text	CC BY 4.0
Data	on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
Figures	Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Maps	boundary source and licence printed on each plate
Metadata	CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and text	The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.7This edition in every format
Format	Kind	State	What it is	Identifier
Web edition	HTML	On this site	Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.	NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print edition	PDF	At release	A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.	NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator data	CSV · JSON	On this site	23 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.	NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE data release v1
Figures	SVG · PNG	On this site	4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.	FIG-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-*
Slides	PDF	Not recorded	No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence brief	HTML · PDF	Not recorded	No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOI	DataCite	At release	Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack: The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut: NQ-SAU-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility: sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check: 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review: five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record: GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections: Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

3Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Saudi Arabia. UMD CGS, College Park, 2026, quoting the Biennial Transparency Report of Saudi Arabia (2024) and electricity data. Observation year 2021 for emissions, 2024 for electricity.back
8Ember (ed.), Saudi Arabia: electricity data page, updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2024.back
2Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 31 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
7International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, March 2026, read through a Zawya report of the Saudi Arabia figure. Observation year 2025.back
13General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Water Accounts 2023, reported in “Per capita water consumption falls by 10% to 102 litres a day,” Arab News, Riyadh, 5 January 2025. Observation year 2023.back
5Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Saudi Arabia, reference date 7 July 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
1General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Population estimates by nationality, sex and age group, 2024, as compiled by the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme. GASTAT, Riyadh, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
11Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement of the Health Minister on deaths during the 2024 Hajj, reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 24 June 2024. Observation year 2024.back
21Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement that life expectancy reached 78.8 years in 2024, reported by Asharq Al-Awsat, 21 April 2025. Observation year 2024.back
20National Center for Wildlife (ed.), Protected Areas System Plan, launched at the 10th Regional Conservation Forum of IUCN, Riyadh, September 2024, as summarised in press reports. Observation year 2024.back
27Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), First Biennial Transparency Report. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 2024. Observation year 2021.back
28Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), AQUASTAT: Saudi Arabia country data. FAO, Rome, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
45United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service (ed.), Saudi Arabia: Grain and Feed Annual. USDA FAS, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
31Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Statistical Yearbook. MoH, Riyadh, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.back
4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Saudi Arabia: 2035 NDC assessment, updated 29 May 2026. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2026. Observation year 2025.back
6International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Saudi Arabia,” press release 26/267. IMF, Washington DC, 29 July 2026. Observation year 2025–2026.back
9National Center for Meteorology (ed.), statement that the 2025 climate was moderate, reported in “NCM: Saudi Arabia experienced a moderate climate in 2025,” Riyadh Daily, 30 November 2025. Observation year 2025.back
10National Center for Meteorology (ed.), rainfall record for Jeddah, 24 November 2022, reported in “Jeddah receives 179mm of rainfall, higher figure than 2009 peak,” Arab News, Riyadh, November 2022. Observation year 2022.back
14General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Household Environment Statistics 2024, reported by Saudi Gazette, Riyadh, November 2025. Observation year 2024.back
17M. Almazroui, “Changes in temperature trends and extremes over Saudi Arabia for the period 1978–2019,” Advances in Meteorology, article 8828421, 2020. Observation years 1978–2019.back

Saudi Arabia 2026
Annex C

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

12 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

C.145 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Population estimates by nationality, sex and age group, 2024, as compiled by the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme. GASTAT, Riyadh, 2025. Observation year 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8
2Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 31 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
3Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Saudi Arabia. UMD CGS, College Park, 2026, quoting the Biennial Transparency Report of Saudi Arabia (2024) and electricity data. Observation year 2021 for emissions, 2024 for electricity. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Saudi Arabia: 2035 NDC assessment, updated 29 May 2026. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
5Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Saudi Arabia, reference date 7 July 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026. Observation year 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
6International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Saudi Arabia,” press release 26/267. IMF, Washington DC, 29 July 2026. Observation year 2025–2026. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
7International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, March 2026, read through a Zawya report of the Saudi Arabia figure. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
8Ember (ed.), Saudi Arabia: electricity data page, updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
9National Center for Meteorology (ed.), statement that the 2025 climate was moderate, reported in “NCM: Saudi Arabia experienced a moderate climate in 2025,” Riyadh Daily, 30 November 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4
10National Center for Meteorology (ed.), rainfall record for Jeddah, 24 November 2022, reported in “Jeddah receives 179mm of rainfall, higher figure than 2009 peak,” Arab News, Riyadh, November 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5
11Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement of the Health Minister on deaths during the 2024 Hajj, reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 24 June 2024. Observation year 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 7, chapter 8
12Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development (ed.), Midday outdoor work ban, 15 June to 15 September 2025, and inspection results reported by Gulf News, Dubai, 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
13General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Water Accounts 2023, reported in “Per capita water consumption falls by 10% to 102 litres a day,” Arab News, Riyadh, 5 January 2025. Observation year 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
14General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Household Environment Statistics 2024, reported by Saudi Gazette, Riyadh, November 2025. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 6
15A. Mohamed, K. Abdelrahman and A. Abdelrady, “Application of time-variable gravity to groundwater storage fluctuations in Saudi Arabia,” Frontiers in Earth Science, vol. 10, article 873352, 2022. Observation years 2002–2016. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
16M. A. Chowdhury and M. M. Al-Zahrani, “Characterising water resources and trends of sector wise water consumptions in Saudi Arabia,” Journal of King Saud University, Engineering Sciences, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 68–82, 2015. Observation year 2009. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
17M. Almazroui, “Changes in temperature trends and extremes over Saudi Arabia for the period 1978–2019,” Advances in Meteorology, article 8828421, 2020. Observation years 1978–2019. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
18J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, pp. 197–200, 2016. Observation year projection. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
19J. Lelieveld, Y. Proestos, P. Hadjinicolaou et al., “Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century,” Climatic Change, vol. 137, pp. 245–260, 2016. Observation year projection. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
20National Center for Wildlife (ed.), Protected Areas System Plan, launched at the 10th Regional Conservation Forum of IUCN, Riyadh, September 2024, as summarised in press reports. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
21Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement that life expectancy reached 78.8 years in 2024, reported by Asharq Al-Awsat, 21 April 2025. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
22General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Health Status Statistics Bulletin 2024, reported by Zawya, Dubai, 2025. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
23United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (ed.), COP16 Riyadh: sand and dust storm monitoring initiative, announced 11 December 2024. UNCCD, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
24Council of Economic and Development Affairs (ed.), Saudi Vision 2030. Government of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, 2016. Observation year 2016. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
25Government of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Saudi Green Initiative: protecting land and sea. Riyadh, launched 2021, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2021. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
26Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Updated First Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 2021. Observation year 2021. Cited in chapter 6
27Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), First Biennial Transparency Report. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 2024. Observation year 2021. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
28Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), AQUASTAT: Saudi Arabia country data. FAO, Rome, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in chapter 8
29Saudi Water Authority and Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture (eds.), annual statistics on desalinated water production. Riyadh, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.
30Electricity and Cogeneration Regulatory Authority (ed.), Annual Statistical Booklet for Electricity and Seawater Desalination. ECRA, Riyadh, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in chapter 8
31Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Statistical Yearbook. MoH, Riyadh, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in chapter 8
32H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
33UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
35UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
36International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
37P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
38J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
39World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
40S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
41S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
42United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024. Cited in chapter 6
43National Center for Meteorology (ed.), warning on heavy-rain risk from September, reported in “National Center for Meteorology urges vigilance as heavy rain risk rises from September onward,” Arab News, Riyadh, 2026. Observation year 2026. Cited in chapter 4
44World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
45United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service (ed.), Saudi Arabia: Grain and Feed Annual. USDA FAS, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title: Saudi Arabia Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series: Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition: Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version: v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close: 30 September 2026
Publication date: October 2026
DOI: concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place: Toronto
Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards: GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
Licence: text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Language: English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence: Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format: A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces: Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard: Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility: tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production: Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
Step	What happens	When
Draft	editorial self-check complete at evidence close	October 2026
Steward review	five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)	Q4 2026
Approval	publication authority approves the exact digest	before release
Deposit	concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set	at release
Succession	the Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baseline	Q1 2027

Current version: v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition: none, first edition of the series
Next edition: NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2027-Q1-v1.0.0

Latest version: resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route: Registry correction pathway
Notice types: erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

Edition	Version	Date	State	Change	Notice
SAU	NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0	October 2026	Draft	Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,	None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias: NR-NAT-SAU-2026-BL
Collection: None
DOI: Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions: Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle: RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID: Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR: Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account: None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Saudi Arabia; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
SAU edition Reports Saudi Arabia 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SAU is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

Handoff	Between	What crosses, and when
F03	Foundry to Reports	Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04	Universe to Reports	After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05	Foundry to Reports	National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Ring	Nexus Standards to Reports	Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06	Reports to Nexus Standards	Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12	Reports to Universe	Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Ring	Reports to Risk Academy	Risk Academy: taught in the open.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

S.3Headline finding

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

What it is not

What comes next

Notes

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

In this part

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

Transmission paths

1.4Reinforcing loops

Notes

2.1Headline finding

Implication

What would move it

2.2Climate forcing

2.3Energy

2.4Water

2.5Health

2.6Food

2.7Finance

2.8Systemic

Notes

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

Non-renewable groundwater, share of natural water supply

Gas share of electricity generation

Cereal import requirement, forecast

Deaths reported during the Hajj

Land in protected areas

Oil and oil products, share of main products and exports

3.2Domain posture

3.3Sector screens

Notes

4.1Risk objects

Extreme heat and humidity

Groundwater depletion and desalination dependence

Flash flood and dust storm

Fuel and power supply under peak demand

4.2Capability ladder

Notes

5.1Assumptions

5.2The cascade, step by step

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

Notes

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

6.2Three lenses

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

Standards drafts used in this edition

Standards calendar to watch

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

Publication dispositions

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Changed since 2024

To watch in 2027

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

Review protocol

Where the evidence agrees

Where it is unsettled

Notes

7.1Questions for the operational series

Population, 2024¹