Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

12 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Saudi Arabia’s risk is heat, water and supply at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Summer heat peak with a mass gathering
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 45 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.145 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Population estimates by nationality, sex and age group, 2024, as compiled by the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population programme. GASTAT, Riyadh, 2025. Observation year 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 31 December 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland (ed.), 2035 NDC Assessment: Saudi Arabia. UMD CGS, College Park, 2026, quoting the Biennial Transparency Report of Saudi Arabia (2024) and electricity data. Observation year 2021 for emissions, 2024 for electricity. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  4. 4Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Saudi Arabia: 2035 NDC assessment, updated 29 May 2026. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
  5. 5Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Saudi Arabia, reference date 7 July 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026. Observation year 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  6. 6International Monetary Fund (ed.), “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Saudi Arabia,” press release 26/267. IMF, Washington DC, 29 July 2026. Observation year 2025–2026. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  7. 7International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, March 2026, read through a Zawya report of the Saudi Arabia figure. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8Ember (ed.), Saudi Arabia: electricity data page, updated 22 April 2026. Ember, London, 2026. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9National Center for Meteorology (ed.), statement that the 2025 climate was moderate, reported in “NCM: Saudi Arabia experienced a moderate climate in 2025,” Riyadh Daily, 30 November 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4
  10. 10National Center for Meteorology (ed.), rainfall record for Jeddah, 24 November 2022, reported in “Jeddah receives 179mm of rainfall, higher figure than 2009 peak,” Arab News, Riyadh, November 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5
  11. 11Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement of the Health Minister on deaths during the 2024 Hajj, reported by The National, Abu Dhabi, 24 June 2024. Observation year 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 7, chapter 8
  12. 12Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development (ed.), Midday outdoor work ban, 15 June to 15 September 2025, and inspection results reported by Gulf News, Dubai, 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Water Accounts 2023, reported in “Per capita water consumption falls by 10% to 102 litres a day,” Arab News, Riyadh, 5 January 2025. Observation year 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  14. 14General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Household Environment Statistics 2024, reported by Saudi Gazette, Riyadh, November 2025. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 6
  15. 15A. Mohamed, K. Abdelrahman and A. Abdelrady, “Application of time-variable gravity to groundwater storage fluctuations in Saudi Arabia,” Frontiers in Earth Science, vol. 10, article 873352, 2022. Observation years 2002–2016. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16M. A. Chowdhury and M. M. Al-Zahrani, “Characterising water resources and trends of sector wise water consumptions in Saudi Arabia,” Journal of King Saud University, Engineering Sciences, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 68–82, 2015. Observation year 2009. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
  17. 17M. Almazroui, “Changes in temperature trends and extremes over Saudi Arabia for the period 1978–2019,” Advances in Meteorology, article 8828421, 2020. Observation years 1978–2019. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  18. 18J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, pp. 197–200, 2016. Observation year projection. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  19. 19J. Lelieveld, Y. Proestos, P. Hadjinicolaou et al., “Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century,” Climatic Change, vol. 137, pp. 245–260, 2016. Observation year projection. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  20. 20National Center for Wildlife (ed.), Protected Areas System Plan, launched at the 10th Regional Conservation Forum of IUCN, Riyadh, September 2024, as summarised in press reports. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
  21. 21Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), statement that life expectancy reached 78.8 years in 2024, reported by Asharq Al-Awsat, 21 April 2025. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22General Authority for Statistics (ed.), Health Status Statistics Bulletin 2024, reported by Zawya, Dubai, 2025. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (ed.), COP16 Riyadh: sand and dust storm monitoring initiative, announced 11 December 2024. UNCCD, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  24. 24Council of Economic and Development Affairs (ed.), Saudi Vision 2030. Government of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, 2016. Observation year 2016. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  25. 25Government of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Saudi Green Initiative: protecting land and sea. Riyadh, launched 2021, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year 2021. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Updated First Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 2021. Observation year 2021. Cited in chapter 6
  27. 27Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (ed.), First Biennial Transparency Report. Submission to the UNFCCC, Riyadh, 2024. Observation year 2021. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  28. 28Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), AQUASTAT: Saudi Arabia country data. FAO, Rome, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in chapter 8
  29. 29Saudi Water Authority and Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture (eds.), annual statistics on desalinated water production. Riyadh, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available.
  30. 30Electricity and Cogeneration Regulatory Authority (ed.), Annual Statistical Booklet for Electricity and Seawater Desalination. ECRA, Riyadh, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in chapter 8
  31. 31Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia (ed.), Statistical Yearbook. MoH, Riyadh, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in chapter 8
  32. 32H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43National Center for Meteorology (ed.), warning on heavy-rain risk from September, reported in “National Center for Meteorology urges vigilance as heavy rain risk rises from September onward,” Arab News, Riyadh, 2026. Observation year 2026. Cited in chapter 4
  44. 44World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service (ed.), Saudi Arabia: Grain and Feed Annual. USDA FAS, Washington DC, retrieved 3 November 2026. Observation year latest available. Cited in chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Saudi Arabia Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
SAUNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-NAT-SAU-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. SAU edition Reports Saudi Arabia 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SAU is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Saudi Arabia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Saudi Arabia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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