Strategic Systems Report 2026: Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the fiscal and financial resilience baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. Yes: higher interest costs, persistent deficits, energy shocks and ageing and defence needs recur across countries.¹⁴⁵

   Do fiscal stresses have common causes?Reported

2. Through shared holders, funding markets and bank balance sheets.⁵⁶

   How does stress spread?Reported

3. Yes: just under 94% of world GDP in 2025 and projected at 100% by 2029.¹

   Is the debt burden rising?Reported

4. Developing countries spent about USD 995 billion net in 2025.²

   Who bears the interest bill?Reported

5. About 75% of members have implemented or will shortly implement Basel III; later status is not bound at the close.⁴⁵

   Are banks stronger?Reported

6. Nonbanks hold more than half of advanced-economy sovereign debt.⁵

   Has the holder base changed?Reported

7. It raised inflation and yields and added fiscal pressure.¹⁴⁶

   Does the energy shock matter for budgets?Reported

8. A sovereign repricing that overlaps nonbank deleveraging. SCN-SR05-FIS-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-001

Global public debt was just under 94% of GDP in 2025, and the IMF projects it at 100% of GDP by 2029, one year earlier than it projected in April 2025.

Debt growth is driven largely by the largest economies, and interest costs add to it. Fiscal space can shrink well before a formal limit is reached, because market capacity to absorb bonds can change quickly¹⁵.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 5BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 4BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter I: Progress and peril (chapter page; fiscal positions, energy shock, equity valuations). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 6IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 45Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee’s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 7Eurostat (ed.), Government debt at 88.9% of GDP in euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026, provisional; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 44US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (data service queried for record date 30 September 2026; total public debt outstanding USD 40.17 trillion; debt held by the public USD 32.43 trillion). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is fiscal and financial resilience risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry fiscal and financial resilience shocks into other systems?
• Which fiscal and financial resilience capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five mechanism chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The fiscal and financial resilience-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their fiscal and financial resilience content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   ENE → FIN → HLT

   An energy shock lifts inflation and yields and squeezes health budgets.

   Reported 2026 energy shock⁴²

2. 02

   FIN → FIN

   A sovereign repricing meets leveraged nonbank selling in funding markets.

   Reported BIS 2026⁵

3. 03

   DAT → FIN

   Hidden debt revealed to markets widens spreads.

   Reported GEP 2026¹²

4. 04

   FIN → DEV

   Rising interest crowds out spending in developing countries.

   Reported UNCTAD 2026²

5. 05

   AIC → FIN

   A fall in elevated equity valuations reaches households and budgets.

   Reported BIS 2026⁴

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 2UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 4BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter I: Progress and peril (chapter page; fiscal positions, energy shock, equity valuations). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 3World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 12World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page; growth 2.5% in 2026; debt and sovereign spreads in developing economies). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-001

Global public debt was just under 94% of GDP in 2025, and the IMF projects it at 100% of GDP by 2029, one year earlier than it projected in April 2025.

Implication

Debt growth is driven largely by the largest economies, and interest costs add to it. Fiscal space can shrink well before a formal limit is reached, because market capacity to absorb bonds can change quickly¹⁵.

What would move it

The next Fiscal Monitor, the path of bond yields and issuance plans would each move this finding.

2.2Finance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-001

   Global public debt was just under 94% of GDP in 2025, and the IMF projects it at 100% of GDP by 2029, one year earlier than it projected in April 2025.¹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002

   Global debt, public and private together, stood slightly above 235% of world GDP, or USD 251 trillion, in the 2025 update of the IMF database, with public debt at nearly 93% of GDP and private debt under 143%.¹⁵

3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

   Net interest on developing-country public debt was about USD 995 billion in 2025. The median developing country spent 8.1% of government revenue on it, and 51 countries with 3.7 billion people spent more on interest than on health or education.²

4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005

   Euro area government debt was 88.9% of GDP in the first quarter of 2026 and the EU figure was 82.9%; the euro area deficit was 3.1% of GDP on a seasonally adjusted basis.⁷⁸

5. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006

   Nonbank institutions held 53% of advanced-economy sovereign debt in 2025, up from 44% in 2021, while domestic central banks’ share fell from 27% to 17% over 2022 to 2025.⁵

6. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007

   About 75% of Basel Committee member jurisdictions had implemented, or would shortly implement, the Basel III standards at 9 March 2026, and the rest had communicated their plans. The count of published rules and the share of standards completed at the 30 September 2026 close are NOT BOUND.⁴⁵

7. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009

   Japan’s FY2026 government bond plan is JPY 180.7 trillion, of which JPY 135.8 trillion is refunding, and interest payments are 10.4% of general account expenditure.¹⁹

8. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

   US federal debt outstanding was USD 40.2 trillion on 30 September 2026, of which USD 32.4 trillion was held by the public; Moody’s lowered the US rating to Aa1 on 16 May 2025. US debt passed 100% of GDP in 2013.⁴⁴⁹²⁰

2.3Development

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-004

   Low- and middle-income countries paid USD 741 billion more in principal and interest on external debt than they received in new financing over 2022 to 2024, and their external debt stood at USD 8.9 trillion in 2024.³

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-011

   Higher government debt has been linked to sovereign spreads about 110 basis points higher in developing economies since 2010, and revelations of hidden debt cause especially large spikes.¹²

2.4Energy

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-008

   The 2026 Middle East conflict cut crude flows by more than 10 million barrels a day, about 13% of normal supply, and global inflation rose by half a percentage point.⁴

2.5Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a long energy shock that forces a repricing of sovereign bonds while leveraged nonbanks sell and refinancing windows close for weaker borrowers. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 5BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 15IMF (ed.), Global Debt Remains Above 235 Percent of World GDP (blog on the 2025 Global Debt Database update, 17 September 2025; USD 251 trillion total; public debt nearly 93% of GDP or USD 99.2 trillion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 2UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 7Eurostat (ed.), Government debt at 88.9% of GDP in euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026, provisional; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 8Eurostat (ed.), Seasonally adjusted government deficit at 3.1% of GDP in the euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 45Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee’s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 19Ministry of Finance Japan (ed.), JGB Investor Presentation, August 2026 (FY2026 government bond issuance JPY 180.7 trillion; refunding bonds JPY 135.8 trillion; interest payments JPY 13.07 trillion or 10.4% of general account expenditure). Ministry of Finance, Tokyo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 44US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (data service queried for record date 30 September 2026; total public debt outstanding USD 40.17 trillion; debt held by the public USD 32.43 trillion). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 9Moody’s Ratings (ed.), The US Sovereign Rating Action (page read: ratings lowered to Aa1 from Aaa, outlook stable, 16 May 2025; the page gives no reasons or figures). Moody’s, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 20US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), America’s Finance Guide: National Debt (page read; debt-to-GDP surpassed 100% in 2013; live figures blank in the text). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 3World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 12World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page; growth 2.5% in 2026; debt and sovereign spreads in developing economies). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 4BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter I: Progress and peril (chapter page; fiscal positions, energy shock, equity valuations). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through fiscal and financial resilience, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries fiscal and financial resilience risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on fiscal and financial resilience, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 7Eurostat (ed.), Government debt at 88.9% of GDP in euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026, provisional; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 45Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee’s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 6IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 4BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter I: Progress and peril (chapter page; fiscal positions, energy shock, equity valuations). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 14IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 6th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 15 April 2026; updated restructuring playbook and liability management manual; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S., This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Laeven, L. and Valencia, F., Systemic Banking Crises Revisited, IMF Working Paper WP/18/206, 2018, cited from memory. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR05-FIN-001

   Sovereign repricing with leveraged nonbank deleveraging

   Driver

   higher yields and forced deleveraging by leveraged funds⁶⁵

   Exposure

   advanced-economy sovereign bond markets, repo markets, banks

   Vulnerability

   short-term issuance; zero-haircut repo; concentrated hedge-fund leverage

   Capacity

   central bank backstops; margin rules; market-structure reform⁵

   Cascade

   FIN → FIN → INF, HLT

   Horizon

   1 to 3 years

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-SR05-DEV-002

   Debt-service squeeze in low-income countries

   Driver

   net payments above new financing; higher spreads³¹²

   Exposure

   IDA-eligible and other vulnerable borrowers

   Vulnerability

   external debt, thin reserves, hidden liabilities

   Capacity

   multilateral lending; restructuring processes¹⁴³⁸

   Cascade

   FIN → HLT, INF

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

3. InferredEQL 3RSK-SR05-FIN-003

   Sovereign and bank feedback

   Driver

   bank holdings of sovereign debt of about 180% of Tier 1 capital in emerging economies⁵

   Exposure

   banks in emerging and euro area economies

   Vulnerability

   sovereign exposure; rollover risk in short-term issuance⁶

   Capacity

   Basel III capital rules; supervisory review⁴⁵³⁶

   Cascade

   FIN → FIN → DAT

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4. InferredEQL 2RSK-SR05-CLI-004

   Disaster loss with thin fiscal and insurance buffers

   Driver

   concurrent hazards and rising insured losses²⁵²⁶

   Exposure

   governments with limited reserves or cover

   Vulnerability

   contingent liabilities not consolidated

   Capacity

   reserves; risk pools; insurance; budget contingencies

   Cascade

   CLI → FIN → HLT, INF

   Horizon

   annual

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 6IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 5BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 12World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page; growth 2.5% in 2026; debt and sovereign spreads in developing economies). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 14IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 6th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 15 April 2026; updated restructuring playbook and liability management manual; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: G20, Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the DSSI, 13 November 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 45Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee’s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms, December 2017, cited from memory. Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute (ed.), sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025 (insured losses of about USD 107 billion reported in summaries), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Munich Re (ed.), review of natural disasters in 2025 (January 2026; insured losses of about USD 108 billion reported by news outlets; one outlet gave a different overall total), taken from press reports; the Munich Re page returned an error and no figure is used. Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), Fiscal Transparency Code, 2019, cited from memory. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 1IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 17FSB (ed.), Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2025 (topic page; report published 16 December 2025; the page gives no figures). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 10POST-CLOSE, context only: ECB (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (landing page of 27 May 2026; vulnerabilities elevated; next review 18 November 2026; the page gives no sovereign figures). European Central Bank, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF and World Bank, Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (reformed framework in use from 2018), cited from memory. Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bank of England, Financial Stability Report, December 2022 (gilt market and liability-driven investment episode), cited from memory. Bank of England, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Report on the 2023 banking turmoil, October 2023, cited from memory. Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 7th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 14 October 2026; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 22IMF (ed.), Questions and Answers on the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable (page read; began February 2023; co-chairs IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency; supports the Common Framework). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S., This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Laeven, L. and Valencia, F., Systemic Banking Crises Revisited, IMF Working Paper WP/18/206, 2018, cited from memory. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Diamond, D.W. and Dybvig, P.H., Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity, Journal of Political Economy 91(3), 401 to 419, 1983, cited from memory. Observation year 1983. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kaminsky, G.L. and Reinhart, C.M., The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems, American Economic Review 89(3), 473 to 500, 1999, cited from memory. Observation year 1999. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SR05-FIS-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a prolonged energy supply loss that lifts inflation and yields, with leveraged funds selling sovereign bonds

Analogues

the 2026 energy shock; the 2022 gilt episode⁴⁵⁴²

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   ENE → FIN

   an energy supply loss lifts prices and policy rate expectations

   2026

2. 2

   FIN → FIN

   bond yields rise and short-term issuance raises rollover risk

   2026

3. 3

   FIN → FIN

   leveraged funds deleverage and funding markets tighten

   2025 · 2026

4. 4

   FIN → DEV

   weaker borrowers lose market access and spreads widen

   2025

5. 5

   FIN → HLT

   interest costs crowd out health and social budgets

   2025

6. 6

   FIN → INF

   banks with large sovereign holdings tighten credit

   2025

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SR05-FIS-01 would travel through Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026, scenario SCN-SR05-FIS-01 (2026); Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 4BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter I: Progress and peril (chapter page; fiscal positions, energy shock, equity valuations). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 5BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bank of England, Financial Stability Report, December 2022 (gilt market and liability-driven investment episode), cited from memory. Bank of England, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for fiscal and financial resilience. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 fiscal and financial resilience readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers fiscal and financial resilience assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about the world’s sovereign, fiscal and financial systems and its couplings?

Sources searched

official statistics; central bank and multilateral reports; peer-reviewed sovereign debt and banking crisis literature; loss statistics

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 5BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms, December 2017, cited from memory. Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 45Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee’s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF and World Bank, Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (reformed framework in use from 2018), cited from memory. Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: G20, Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the DSSI, 13 November 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), Fiscal Transparency Code, 2019, cited from memory. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 14IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 6th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 15 April 2026; updated restructuring playbook and liability management manual; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 17FSB (ed.), Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2025 (topic page; report published 16 December 2025; the page gives no figures). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Report on the 2023 banking turmoil, October 2023, cited from memory. Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 16POST-CLOSE, context only: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III implementation: media release of 5 October 2026 and RCAP implementation page (assessment date 30 September 2026; 27 members). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 7th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 14 October 2026; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 10POST-CLOSE, context only: ECB (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (landing page of 27 May 2026; vulnerabilities elevated; next review 18 November 2026; the page gives no sovereign figures). European Central Bank, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S., This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Laeven, L. and Valencia, F., Systemic Banking Crises Revisited, IMF Working Paper WP/18/206, 2018, cited from memory. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Diamond, D.W. and Dybvig, P.H., Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity, Journal of Political Economy 91(3), 401 to 419, 1983, cited from memory. Observation year 1983. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Blanchard, O., Public debt and low interest rates, American Economic Review 109(4), 1197 to 1229, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kaminsky, G.L. and Reinhart, C.M., The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems, American Economic Review 89(3), 473 to 500, 1999, cited from memory. Observation year 1999. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Brunnermeier, M.K., Garicano, L., Lane, P.R., Pagano, M., Reis, R., Santos, T., Thesmar, D., Van Nieuwerburgh, S. and Vayanos, D., The sovereign-bank diabolic loop and ESBies, American Economic Review 106(5), 508 to 512, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gennaioli, N., Martin, A. and Rossi, S., Sovereign default, domestic banks, and financial institutions, Journal of Finance 69(2), 819 to 866, 2014, cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 1IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 6IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 11IMF (ed.), World Economic Outlook, April 2026 (page of 14 April 2026; growth 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027; downside risks). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 4BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter I: Progress and peril (chapter page; fiscal positions, energy shock, equity valuations). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 21BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026 (report page of 28 June 2026; chapter titles; fiscal-financial stability nexus). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 12World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page; growth 2.5% in 2026; debt and sovereign spreads in developing economies). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 15IMF (ed.), Global Debt Remains Above 235 Percent of World GDP (blog on the 2025 Global Debt Database update, 17 September 2025; USD 251 trillion total; public debt nearly 93% of GDP or USD 99.2 trillion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 7Eurostat (ed.), Government debt at 88.9% of GDP in euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026, provisional; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 8Eurostat (ed.), Seasonally adjusted government deficit at 3.1% of GDP in the euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 44US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (data service queried for record date 30 September 2026; total public debt outstanding USD 40.17 trillion; debt held by the public USD 32.43 trillion). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 19Ministry of Finance Japan (ed.), JGB Investor Presentation, August 2026 (FY2026 government bond issuance JPY 180.7 trillion; refunding bonds JPY 135.8 trillion; interest payments JPY 13.07 trillion or 10.4% of general account expenditure). Ministry of Finance, Tokyo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Global Debt Report 2026 (released 4 March 2026; record gross sovereign borrowing in the OECD area; refinancing needs; shorter maturities), taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Congressional Budget Office (ed.), The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 (February 2026), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. CBO, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute (ed.), sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025 (insured losses of about USD 107 billion reported in summaries), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Munich Re (ed.), review of natural disasters in 2025 (January 2026; insured losses of about USD 108 billion reported by news outlets; one outlet gave a different overall total), taken from press reports; the Munich Re page returned an error and no figure is used. Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 22IMF (ed.), Questions and Answers on the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable (page read; began February 2023; co-chairs IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency; supports the Common Framework). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38. 9Moody’s Ratings (ed.), The US Sovereign Rating Action (page read: ratings lowered to Aa1 from Aaa, outlook stable, 16 May 2025; the page gives no reasons or figures). Moody’s, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fitch Ratings, France downgraded to A+ from AA-, September 2025, taken from press summaries. Fitch Ratings, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: S&P Global Ratings, France downgraded to A+ from AA-, October 2025, taken from press summaries. S&P Global Ratings, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: press reports on the undisclosed debt of Senegal and the staff-level agreement with the IMF of August and September 2026, taken from search-result summaries; estimates of the hidden amount differ and none is used. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. F-01

   How would a long energy shock that forces a repricing of sovereign bonds spread through banks, funds and weaker borrowers at the same time?

   INI-SR05-RPR-01 · sovereign repricing and nonbank deleveraging; first output: transmission analysis for six regions.

2. F-02

   Who holds sovereign debt in each region, and how fast can those holders sell?

   INI-SR05-HLD-02 · holder base; first output: holdings register by investor type.

3. F-03

   How large are hidden and contingent public liabilities, and how are they disclosed?

   INI-SR05-LIA-03 · hidden liabilities; first output: liability disclosure table.

4. F-04

   How long do restructurings take, and what slows them?

   INI-SR05-RST-04 · restructuring timelines; first output: timeline table.

5. F-05

   How do disaster losses meet fiscal buffers, reserves and insurance?

   INI-SR05-DIS-05 · disaster fiscal cost; first output: buffer overlay.

6. F-06

   Which governments publish interest costs and debt maturity on a comparable basis?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: coverage note.

7. F-07

   How do defence, ageing and climate spending change fiscal space?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. F-08

   Which fiscal and financial capabilities have been tested in real stress, and which are only planned?

   Fiscal capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 fiscal and financial portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The fiscal and financial resilience edition reads national public-finance chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National public-finance chapters

   fiscal reading in each national edition

   IN PREPARATION · national baselines

2. 02

   Sector editions

   finance, development, policy, cities

   PLANNED · sector Baseline Editions

3. 03

   Fiscal and financial system model

   the global fiscal system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Strategic links

   SR-01 · SR-03 supply chains · SR-07 inequality and social contract

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   Fiscal and Financial Resilience Report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the fiscal and financial resilience candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-SR05-2027-01 · Sovereign repricing Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: press reports on the undisclosed debt of Senegal and the staff-level agreement with the IMF of August and September 2026, taken from search-result summaries; estimates of the hidden amount differ and none is used. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Common causes

One cause can strike many budgets and markets at once: an energy shock, a rise in rates, a war or a loss of confidence. The shared cause matters more than the country.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
• SR-07 Inequality and the Social Contract
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-06 Development

8.2Domino effects

A failure in one market removes funding or confidence from the next. Stress in sovereign bonds reaches funds, banks and weaker borrowers in sequence.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
• SR-07 Inequality and the Social Contract
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-06 Development

8.3Inter-systemic feedbacks

Budgets depend on markets, and markets depend on budgets. Yields feed interest costs, interest costs feed debt, and debt feeds yields.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
• SR-07 Inequality and the Social Contract
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-06 Development

8.4Shared vulnerabilities

Different budgets share the same weak points: the same holders, the same funding markets, short-term issuance and hidden debt.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
• SR-07 Inequality and the Social Contract
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-06 Development

8.5Thresholds and tipping

A system can absorb stress until a threshold is crossed. Market access, restructuring speed and bank capital are such thresholds for public finances.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
• SR-07 Inequality and the Social Contract
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-06 Development

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 4BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter I: Progress and peril (chapter page; fiscal positions, energy shock, equity valuations). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Brunnermeier, M.K., Garicano, L., Lane, P.R., Pagano, M., Reis, R., Santos, T., Thesmar, D., Van Nieuwerburgh, S. and Vayanos, D., The sovereign-bank diabolic loop and ESBies, American Economic Review 106(5), 508 to 512, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gennaioli, N., Martin, A. and Rossi, S., Sovereign default, domestic banks, and financial institutions, Journal of Finance 69(2), 819 to 866, 2014, cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 11IMF (ed.), World Economic Outlook, April 2026 (page of 14 April 2026; growth 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027; downside risks). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 44US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (data service queried for record date 30 September 2026; total public debt outstanding USD 40.17 trillion; debt held by the public USD 32.43 trillion). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 19Ministry of Finance Japan (ed.), JGB Investor Presentation, August 2026 (FY2026 government bond issuance JPY 180.7 trillion; refunding bonds JPY 135.8 trillion; interest payments JPY 13.07 trillion or 10.4% of general account expenditure). Ministry of Finance, Tokyo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 12World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page; growth 2.5% in 2026; debt and sovereign spreads in developing economies). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Global Debt Report 2026 (released 4 March 2026; record gross sovereign borrowing in the OECD area; refinancing needs; shorter maturities), taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: press reports on the undisclosed debt of Senegal and the staff-level agreement with the IMF of August and September 2026, taken from search-result summaries; estimates of the hidden amount differ and none is used. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 9Moody’s Ratings (ed.), The US Sovereign Rating Action (page read: ratings lowered to Aa1 from Aaa, outlook stable, 16 May 2025; the page gives no reasons or figures). Moody’s, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 3World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 45Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee’s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 14IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 6th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 15 April 2026; updated restructuring playbook and liability management manual; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 7th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 14 October 2026; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Fiscal and Financial System Model v0

Model ID

MDL-SR05-FISCAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent public budgets, bond markets, banks and nonbank funds as a connected system and the mechanisms by which fiscal and financial stress spreads between them

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

45 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 fiscal and financial resilience annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• IMF¹: executive summary and database tables
• BIS⁵: the last 20,000 characters of the chapter and its annex
• ECB¹⁰: sovereign sections of the full review
• Roundtable¹³¹⁴: report PDFs and compendium

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: net interest on public debt

Construct

interest paid by a government on its debt, net of interest received

Unit

USD billion a year; share of government revenue

Method

as defined by the issuing agency

Source

UNCTAD A World of Debt 2026²

Uncertainty

definitions and country coverage differ between sources

Known limits

does not record debt maturity or currency

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 7th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 14 October 2026; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 14IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 6th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 15 April 2026; updated restructuring playbook and liability management manual; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 10POST-CLOSE, context only: ECB (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (landing page of 27 May 2026; vulnerabilities elevated; next review 18 November 2026; the page gives no sovereign figures). European Central Bank, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 1IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Global Debt Report 2026 (released 4 March 2026; record gross sovereign borrowing in the OECD area; refinancing needs; shorter maturities), taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Congressional Budget Office (ed.), The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 (February 2026), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. CBO, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute (ed.), sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025 (insured losses of about USD 107 billion reported in summaries), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Munich Re (ed.), review of natural disasters in 2025 (January 2026; insured losses of about USD 108 billion reported by news outlets; one outlet gave a different overall total), taken from press reports; the Munich Re page returned an error and no figure is used. Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF and World Bank (eds.), List of Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Analyses (status as of 31 March 2026), taken from a search snippet; the list returned no text and no count is used. Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 19Ministry of Finance Japan (ed.), JGB Investor Presentation, August 2026 (FY2026 government bond issuance JPY 180.7 trillion; refunding bonds JPY 135.8 trillion; interest payments JPY 13.07 trillion or 10.4% of general account expenditure). Ministry of Finance, Tokyo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 5BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 2UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• FIN
• ENE
• DEV
• DAT
• CLI
• WAT
• HLT
• AIC
• MIN
• TRD

B.3Regional reading, ten regional clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

B.4Regional card: Euro area public finances

• region
• euro area
• public debt
• bank-sovereign

Systems in view

public debt, banks, bond markets

Defining events

euro area debt of 88.9% of GDP in the first quarter of 2026⁷

Couplings

FIN → FIN; ENE → FIN

Capability evidence

published stability reviews and quarterly statistics¹⁰⁷

Gaps

bank holdings of sovereign debt by country; nonbank leverage

Agenda items

F-01 · F-02

B.5How countries appear in the global edition

Countries enter the fiscal and financial resilience edition through the public-finance chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 15IMF (ed.), Global Debt Remains Above 235 Percent of World GDP (blog on the 2025 Global Debt Database update, 17 September 2025; USD 251 trillion total; public debt nearly 93% of GDP or USD 99.2 trillion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 3World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 7Eurostat (ed.), Government debt at 88.9% of GDP in euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026, provisional; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 8Eurostat (ed.), Seasonally adjusted government deficit at 3.1% of GDP in the euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 5BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 44US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (data service queried for record date 30 September 2026; total public debt outstanding USD 40.17 trillion; debt held by the public USD 32.43 trillion). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 19Ministry of Finance Japan (ed.), JGB Investor Presentation, August 2026 (FY2026 government bond issuance JPY 180.7 trillion; refunding bonds JPY 135.8 trillion; interest payments JPY 13.07 trillion or 10.4% of general account expenditure). Ministry of Finance, Tokyo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 45Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee’s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 6IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 9Moody’s Ratings (ed.), The US Sovereign Rating Action (page read: ratings lowered to Aa1 from Aaa, outlook stable, 16 May 2025; the page gives no reasons or figures). Moody’s, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 10POST-CLOSE, context only: ECB (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (landing page of 27 May 2026; vulnerabilities elevated; next review 18 November 2026; the page gives no sovereign figures). European Central Bank, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 12World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page; growth 2.5% in 2026; debt and sovereign spreads in developing economies). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: press reports on the undisclosed debt of Senegal and the staff-level agreement with the IMF of August and September 2026, taken from search-result summaries; estimates of the hidden amount differ and none is used. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.145 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
3. 3World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
4. 4BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter I: Progress and peril (chapter page; fiscal positions, energy shock, equity valuations). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
6. 6IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
7. 7Eurostat (ed.), Government debt at 88.9% of GDP in euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026, provisional; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
8. 8Eurostat (ed.), Seasonally adjusted government deficit at 3.1% of GDP in the euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
9. 9Moody’s Ratings (ed.), The US Sovereign Rating Action (page read: ratings lowered to Aa1 from Aaa, outlook stable, 16 May 2025; the page gives no reasons or figures). Moody’s, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
10. 10POST-CLOSE, context only: ECB (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (landing page of 27 May 2026; vulnerabilities elevated; next review 18 November 2026; the page gives no sovereign figures). European Central Bank, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
11. 11IMF (ed.), World Economic Outlook, April 2026 (page of 14 April 2026; growth 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027; downside risks). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
12. 12World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page; growth 2.5% in 2026; debt and sovereign spreads in developing economies). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 7th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 14 October 2026; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
14. 14IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 6th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 15 April 2026; updated restructuring playbook and liability management manual; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
15. 15IMF (ed.), Global Debt Remains Above 235 Percent of World GDP (blog on the 2025 Global Debt Database update, 17 September 2025; USD 251 trillion total; public debt nearly 93% of GDP or USD 99.2 trillion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
16. 16POST-CLOSE, context only: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III implementation: media release of 5 October 2026 and RCAP implementation page (assessment date 30 September 2026; 27 members). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
17. 17FSB (ed.), Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2025 (topic page; report published 16 December 2025; the page gives no figures). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
18. 18POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (data service; record date 2 November 2026; total public debt outstanding USD 40.50 trillion; debt held by the public USD 32.72 trillion). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
19. 19Ministry of Finance Japan (ed.), JGB Investor Presentation, August 2026 (FY2026 government bond issuance JPY 180.7 trillion; refunding bonds JPY 135.8 trillion; interest payments JPY 13.07 trillion or 10.4% of general account expenditure). Ministry of Finance, Tokyo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
20. 20US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), America’s Finance Guide: National Debt (page read; debt-to-GDP surpassed 100% in 2013; live figures blank in the text). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2
21. 21BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026 (report page of 28 June 2026; chapter titles; fiscal-financial stability nexus). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
22. 22IMF (ed.), Questions and Answers on the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable (page read; began February 2023; co-chairs IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency; supports the Common Framework). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
23. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Global Debt Report 2026 (released 4 March 2026; record gross sovereign borrowing in the OECD area; refinancing needs; shorter maturities), taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
24. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Congressional Budget Office (ed.), The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 (February 2026), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. CBO, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute (ed.), sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025 (insured losses of about USD 107 billion reported in summaries), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Munich Re (ed.), review of natural disasters in 2025 (January 2026; insured losses of about USD 108 billion reported by news outlets; one outlet gave a different overall total), taken from press reports; the Munich Re page returned an error and no figure is used. Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF and World Bank (eds.), List of Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Analyses (status as of 31 March 2026), taken from a search snippet; the list returned no text and no count is used. Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fitch Ratings, France downgraded to A+ from AA-, September 2025, taken from press summaries. Fitch Ratings, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: S&P Global Ratings, France downgraded to A+ from AA-, October 2025, taken from press summaries. S&P Global Ratings, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: press reports on the undisclosed debt of Senegal and the staff-level agreement with the IMF of August and September 2026, taken from search-result summaries; estimates of the hidden amount differ and none is used. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S., This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Laeven, L. and Valencia, F., Systemic Banking Crises Revisited, IMF Working Paper WP/18/206, 2018, cited from memory. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Diamond, D.W. and Dybvig, P.H., Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity, Journal of Political Economy 91(3), 401 to 419, 1983, cited from memory. Observation year 1983. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Blanchard, O., Public debt and low interest rates, American Economic Review 109(4), 1197 to 1229, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kaminsky, G.L. and Reinhart, C.M., The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems, American Economic Review 89(3), 473 to 500, 1999, cited from memory. Observation year 1999. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms, December 2017, cited from memory. Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF and World Bank, Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (reformed framework in use from 2018), cited from memory. Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: G20, Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the DSSI, 13 November 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), Fiscal Transparency Code, 2019, cited from memory. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Brunnermeier, M.K., Garicano, L., Lane, P.R., Pagano, M., Reis, R., Santos, T., Thesmar, D., Van Nieuwerburgh, S. and Vayanos, D., The sovereign-bank diabolic loop and ESBies, American Economic Review 106(5), 508 to 512, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gennaioli, N., Martin, A. and Rossi, S., Sovereign default, domestic banks, and financial institutions, Journal of Finance 69(2), 819 to 866, 2014, cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bank of England, Financial Stability Report, December 2022 (gilt market and liability-driven investment episode), cited from memory. Bank of England, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 5
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Report on the 2023 banking turmoil, October 2023, cited from memory. Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
44. 44US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (data service queried for record date 30 September 2026; total public debt outstanding USD 40.17 trillion; debt held by the public USD 32.43 trillion). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
45. 45Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee’s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Colophon

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A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

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Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

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Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

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tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version