Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

14 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Public budgets and markets stress together
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Energy shock, sovereign repricing and nonbank selling
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 45 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.145 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  4. 4BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter I: Progress and peril (chapter page; fiscal positions, energy shock, equity valuations). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  6. 6IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  7. 7Eurostat (ed.), Government debt at 88.9% of GDP in euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026, provisional; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  8. 8Eurostat (ed.), Seasonally adjusted government deficit at 3.1% of GDP in the euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  9. 9Moody’s Ratings (ed.), The US Sovereign Rating Action (page read: ratings lowered to Aa1 from Aaa, outlook stable, 16 May 2025; the page gives no reasons or figures). Moody’s, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  10. 10POST-CLOSE, context only: ECB (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (landing page of 27 May 2026; vulnerabilities elevated; next review 18 November 2026; the page gives no sovereign figures). European Central Bank, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  11. 11IMF (ed.), World Economic Outlook, April 2026 (page of 14 April 2026; growth 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027; downside risks). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page; growth 2.5% in 2026; debt and sovereign spreads in developing economies). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 7th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 14 October 2026; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 14IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 6th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 15 April 2026; updated restructuring playbook and liability management manual; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  15. 15IMF (ed.), Global Debt Remains Above 235 Percent of World GDP (blog on the 2025 Global Debt Database update, 17 September 2025; USD 251 trillion total; public debt nearly 93% of GDP or USD 99.2 trillion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  16. 16POST-CLOSE, context only: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III implementation: media release of 5 October 2026 and RCAP implementation page (assessment date 30 September 2026; 27 members). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  17. 17FSB (ed.), Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2025 (topic page; report published 16 December 2025; the page gives no figures). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  18. 18POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (data service; record date 2 November 2026; total public debt outstanding USD 40.50 trillion; debt held by the public USD 32.72 trillion). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  19. 19Ministry of Finance Japan (ed.), JGB Investor Presentation, August 2026 (FY2026 government bond issuance JPY 180.7 trillion; refunding bonds JPY 135.8 trillion; interest payments JPY 13.07 trillion or 10.4% of general account expenditure). Ministry of Finance, Tokyo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), America’s Finance Guide: National Debt (page read; debt-to-GDP surpassed 100% in 2013; live figures blank in the text). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2
  21. 21BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026 (report page of 28 June 2026; chapter titles; fiscal-financial stability nexus). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  22. 22IMF (ed.), Questions and Answers on the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable (page read; began February 2023; co-chairs IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency; supports the Common Framework). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  23. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Global Debt Report 2026 (released 4 March 2026; record gross sovereign borrowing in the OECD area; refinancing needs; shorter maturities), taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Congressional Budget Office (ed.), The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 (February 2026), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. CBO, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute (ed.), sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025 (insured losses of about USD 107 billion reported in summaries), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Munich Re (ed.), review of natural disasters in 2025 (January 2026; insured losses of about USD 108 billion reported by news outlets; one outlet gave a different overall total), taken from press reports; the Munich Re page returned an error and no figure is used. Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF and World Bank (eds.), List of Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Analyses (status as of 31 March 2026), taken from a search snippet; the list returned no text and no count is used. Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fitch Ratings, France downgraded to A+ from AA-, September 2025, taken from press summaries. Fitch Ratings, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: S&P Global Ratings, France downgraded to A+ from AA-, October 2025, taken from press summaries. S&P Global Ratings, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: press reports on the undisclosed debt of Senegal and the staff-level agreement with the IMF of August and September 2026, taken from search-result summaries; estimates of the hidden amount differ and none is used. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S., This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Laeven, L. and Valencia, F., Systemic Banking Crises Revisited, IMF Working Paper WP/18/206, 2018, cited from memory. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Diamond, D.W. and Dybvig, P.H., Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity, Journal of Political Economy 91(3), 401 to 419, 1983, cited from memory. Observation year 1983. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Blanchard, O., Public debt and low interest rates, American Economic Review 109(4), 1197 to 1229, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kaminsky, G.L. and Reinhart, C.M., The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems, American Economic Review 89(3), 473 to 500, 1999, cited from memory. Observation year 1999. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms, December 2017, cited from memory. Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF and World Bank, Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (reformed framework in use from 2018), cited from memory. Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: G20, Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the DSSI, 13 November 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), Fiscal Transparency Code, 2019, cited from memory. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Brunnermeier, M.K., Garicano, L., Lane, P.R., Pagano, M., Reis, R., Santos, T., Thesmar, D., Van Nieuwerburgh, S. and Vayanos, D., The sovereign-bank diabolic loop and ESBies, American Economic Review 106(5), 508 to 512, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gennaioli, N., Martin, A. and Rossi, S., Sovereign default, domestic banks, and financial institutions, Journal of Finance 69(2), 819 to 866, 2014, cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bank of England, Financial Stability Report, December 2022 (gilt market and liability-driven investment episode), cited from memory. Bank of England, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 5
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Report on the 2023 banking turmoil, October 2023, cited from memory. Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  44. 44US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (data service queried for record date 30 September 2026; total public debt outstanding USD 40.17 trillion; debt held by the public USD 32.43 trillion). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  45. 45Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee’s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Strategic Systems Report 2026: Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Strategic Systems Series SR-05
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 fiscal and financial resilience edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
SR-05NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-STR-SR-05-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience, prefilled from this page
{
  "metadata": {
    "resource_type": {
      "id": "dataset"
    },
    "title": "Evidence on Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience for Nexus Reports",
    "publication_date": "YYYY-MM-DD",
    "creators": [
      {
        "person_or_org": {
          "type": "personal",
          "family_name": "Your family name",
          "given_name": "Your given name",
          "identifiers": [
            {
              "scheme": "orcid",
              "identifier": "0000-0000-0000-0000"
            }
          ]
        },
        "affiliations": [
          {
            "id": "ROR identifier of your organisation"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "description": "What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Strategic Systems Report 2026: Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience.",
    "rights": [
      {
        "id": "cc-by-4.0"
      }
    ],
    "subjects": [
      {
        "subject": "Nexus Reports"
      },
      {
        "subject": "Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience"
      },
      {
        "subject": "Strategic Systems Report · SR-05"
      }
    ],
    "related_identifiers": [
      {
        "identifier": "https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-05/",
        "scheme": "url",
        "relation_type": {
          "id": "issupplementto"
        },
        "resource_type": {
          "id": "publication-report"
        }
      }
    ],
    "version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "custom_fields": {},
  "access": {
    "record": "public",
    "files": "public"
  },
  "files": {
    "enabled": true
  },
  "parent": {
    "communities": {
      "default": "nexusreports"
    }
  }
}

C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. SR-05 edition Reports Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-05 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskStrategic Systems

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices