Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

13 min read0 figures13 tables12 notesNR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Gap between two published global public debt stocks	111 − 99.2	≈ 11.8 USD trillion
(2)	Net interest per day, developing countries, 2025	995 ÷ 365	≈ 2.7 USD billion
(3)	Refunding share of the FY2026 Japanese bond plan	135.8 ÷ 180.7	≈ 75%
(4)	Share of US federal debt held by the public	32.43 ÷ 40.17	≈ 81%

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, Fiscal and Financial System Model v0

Model ID: MDL-SR05-FISCAL · v0.1
Purpose: represent public budgets, bond markets, banks and nonbank funds as a connected system and the mechanisms by which fiscal and financial stress spreads between them
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

5strong

documented within one season

3moderate

documented, buffered

12weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID: DC-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 45 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: the 2027 fiscal and financial resilience annual cut

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
Element	Baseline 2026	2027 global annual
Sources	cited global publications, pinned by edition	national, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	Fiscal and Financial System Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to federation evidence
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Public debt, global	2025	Apr 2026	semi-annual	Oct 2026 report
Total debt, public and private	2024	Sep 2025	annual	next database update
Developing-country interest	2025	2026	annual	next UNCTAD edition
External debt flows	2022 to 2024	Dec 2025	annual	next debt report
Euro area debt	Q1 2026	Jul 2026	quarterly	next release
Holder base of sovereign debt	2025	Jun 2026	annual	BIS 2027
Basel III status	Mar 2026	Mar 2026	periodic	next Basel Committee update
US federal debt	30 Sep 2026	Oct 2026	daily	daily
Japanese issuance plan	FY2026	Aug 2026	periodic	FY2027 plan
Hidden debt cases	2026	Aug to Sep 2026	per event	not verified

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Advanced-economy public debt	GOOD	holder detail
Emerging-economy public debt	PARTIAL	holder detail
Low-income debt	PARTIAL	hidden liabilities
Banks	PARTIAL	sovereign exposure by country
Nonbanks	THIN	leverage and liquidity data
Restructuring	THIN	timelines
Disaster finance	THIN	buffers and cover
Energy shock	THIN	duration and fiscal cost

Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
Field	Source that would fill it	Blocker
Holdings of sovereign debt by investor type outside advanced economies	BIS, national debt offices, IMF	the BIS chapter gives advanced-economy shares only
Hidden and contingent public liabilities on a common basis	IMF, World Bank, national audit offices	no consolidated series; case reports differ in size
Restructuring timelines under the Common Framework and outside it	Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable reports¹³¹⁴	only the press pages were opened; the report PDFs were not read
Full text of the ECB Financial Stability Review of May 2026	ECB¹⁰	only the landing page was opened; its text gives no sovereign figures
IMF Fiscal Monitor debt-at-risk and interest figures	IMF Fiscal Monitor April 2026¹	the page and its summary give no such figures; the report PDF was not opened
OECD gross borrowing and refinancing figures for 2025 and 2026	OECD Global Debt Report 2026²³	the pages returned an access error; figures come from search summaries and are not used
CBO baseline deficit, debt and net interest	CBO Budget and Economic Outlook²⁴	the pages returned an access error; figures come from search summaries and are not used
Insured and economic disaster losses for 2025	Swiss Re sigma 1/2026 and Munich Re²⁵²⁶	both pages unavailable; reports of the totals differ and are not used
Interest costs by country on one comparable basis	national treasuries and debt offices	definitions of net interest differ by source
Risk ratings of low-income countries from the IMF and World Bank list	IMF and World Bank debt sustainability list²⁷	the list returned no text; counts come from a search snippet and are not used
Japan general government debt ratio on one basis	Ministry of Finance Japan¹⁹	central and local, general government and net measures differ; no single figure chosen
Capability rungs beyond the published guidance	ministries, central banks, debt offices	not reviewed

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by the International Monetary Fund. Semi-annual. Role: binds FIN-001. Coverage: global. The publication page was read; the report and its database were not opened.

EVD-SR05-001

IMF Fiscal Monitor, April 2026¹

Issued by the Bank for International Settlements. Annual. Role: binds FIN-006. Coverage: advanced and emerging economies. The chapter page was read to character 100,000 of 120,069.

EVD-SR05-002

BIS Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II⁵

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-SR05-001	EVD-SR05-002
Completeness	aggregate only; country tables not read	advanced-economy holder shares; emerging economies thin
Timeliness	about 3 months after year end	about 6 months after year end
Revision	projections revised each edition	annual
Method transparency	projection method stated in the report	sources and charts cited in the chapter
External validation	member country consultation	central bank review

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

IMF¹: executive summary and database tables
BIS⁵: the last 20,000 characters of the chapter and its annex
ECB¹⁰: sovereign sections of the full review
Roundtable¹³¹⁴: report PDFs and compendium

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
BCBS	Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
BIS	Bank for International Settlements
ECB	European Central Bank
FSB	Financial Stability Board
GDP	gross domestic product
GSDR	Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable
IDA	International Development Association
JGB	Japanese government bond
LMIC	low- and middle-income countries
NBFI	nonbank financial intermediation
UNCTAD	United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
WEO	World Economic Outlook

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the global indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-SR05-FIS-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	2027
A.7	Regional notes	regional fiscal cards	WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: net interest on public debt

Construct: interest paid by a government on its debt, net of interest received
Unit: USD billion a year; share of government revenue
Method: as defined by the issuing agency
Source: UNCTAD A World of Debt 2026²
Uncertainty: definitions and country coverage differ between sources
Known limits: does not record debt maturity or currency

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

13POST-CLOSE, context only: IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 7th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 14 October 2026; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 6th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 15 April 2026; updated restructuring playbook and liability management manual; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10POST-CLOSE, context only: ECB (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (landing page of 27 May 2026; vulnerabilities elevated; next review 18 November 2026; the page gives no sovereign figures). European Central Bank, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Global Debt Report 2026 (released 4 March 2026; record gross sovereign borrowing in the OECD area; refinancing needs; shorter maturities), taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Congressional Budget Office (ed.), The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 (February 2026), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. CBO, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute (ed.), sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025 (insured losses of about USD 107 billion reported in summaries), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Munich Re (ed.), review of natural disasters in 2025 (January 2026; insured losses of about USD 108 billion reported by news outlets; one outlet gave a different overall total), taken from press reports; the Munich Re page returned an error and no figure is used. Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF and World Bank (eds.), List of Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Analyses (status as of 31 March 2026), taken from a search snippet; the list returned no text and no count is used. Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19Ministry of Finance Japan (ed.), JGB Investor Presentation, August 2026 (FY2026 government bond issuance JPY 180.7 trillion; refunding bonds JPY 135.8 trillion; interest payments JPY 13.07 trillion or 10.4% of general account expenditure). Ministry of Finance, Tokyo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex A: Methodology. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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