Strategic Systems Report 2026: Food–Water–Energy Security

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the food, water and energy baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. Yes: conflict, route closures, climate states and price shocks hit all three.²⁵⁴⁸

   Do food, water and energy stress have common causes?Reported

2. Through fuel, fertiliser and import costs.⁵⁴⁶

   How does an energy shock reach food?Reported

3. Not at the global level: FAO forecast 2026/27 cereal stocks at 947.2 million tonnes.⁴⁷

   Is the grain buffer thin?Reported

4. About 69 to 72 percent of withdrawals.¹⁵¹⁶

   How much water does farming take?Reported

5. 2.1 billion lack safe drinking water; 655 million lack electricity.¹³¹¹

   Who lacks basic water and power?Reported

6. Plants and fuel supply for water systems were reported hit in 2026.²¹²³

   Does war reach water systems?Reported

7. Slowly at the global level; acute crises remain high.¹²

   Is the hunger trend improving?Reported

8. An energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Niño. SCN-SR07-FWE-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007

By mid-April 2026 urea prices were up 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil, and an estimated 1.5 to 3 million tonnes of monthly fertiliser trade was delayed.

Fertiliser is bought before planting. FAO names squeezed farm margins and lower future yields as one of four channels, and tells countries to avoid export limits on energy and fertiliser in the next 90 days⁵. Yield outcomes are not yet observed.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 13United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 11IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 15FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 16FAO (ed.), Land and water: water management (page; agriculture uses 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals; 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas facing severe water constraints). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 46‘FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
9. 47‘Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
10. 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
11. 49‘ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\’s 10 September read: 75% chance El Niño exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
12. 21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 23POST-CLOSE, context only: UNICEF (ed.), Press release: water for over 1.6 million children in Taiz at risk as fighting intensifies in Yemen (20 October 2026; fuel shortages threaten water systems serving an estimated three million people). United Nations Children’s Fund, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is food, water and energy risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry food, water and energy shocks into other systems?
• Which food, water and energy capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five mechanism chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The food, water and energy-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their food, water and energy content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   ENE → FOO

   A route closure lifts fuel and fertiliser costs before planting.

   Reported 2026 urea prices⁵

2. 02

   ENE → WAT

   Fuel and power loss stop pumping and desalination.

   Reported Yemen 2026²³

3. 03

   TRD → FOO

   Import-dependent states face higher staple costs.

   Reported FAO 2026⁵

4. 04

   CLI → FOO, WAT

   A strong El Niño disturbs rainfall and river flow.

   Reported NOAA 2026⁴⁸

5. 05

   FOO → WAT

   Irrigation takes most freshwater withdrawals.

   Reported FAO¹⁵¹⁶

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 15FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 22Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
6. 23POST-CLOSE, context only: UNICEF (ed.), Press release: water for over 1.6 million children in Taiz at risk as fighting intensifies in Yemen (20 October 2026; fuel shortages threaten water systems serving an estimated three million people). United Nations Children’s Fund, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 13United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 11IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 1FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 16FAO (ed.), Land and water: water management (page; agriculture uses 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals; 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas facing severe water constraints). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007

By mid-April 2026 urea prices were up 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil, and an estimated 1.5 to 3 million tonnes of monthly fertiliser trade was delayed.

Implication

Fertiliser is bought before planting. FAO names squeezed farm margins and lower future yields as one of four channels, and tells countries to avoid export limits on energy and fertiliser in the next 90 days⁵. Yield outcomes are not yet observed.

What would move it

Route reopening, fertiliser stocks, planting-season application rates and the yield outcome would each move this finding.

2.2Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-001

   FAO estimates that about 645 million people faced hunger in 2025, and that healthy diets are unaffordable for about 2.7 billion people.¹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-002

   The Global Report on Food Crises 2026 counts about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 2025 across 47 countries and territories, with conflict the major driver.²

3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007

   By mid-April 2026 urea prices were up 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil, and an estimated 1.5 to 3 million tonnes of monthly fertiliser trade was delayed.⁵

4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

   In early September 2026 FAO forecast world cereal output at about 2.98 billion tonnes, about 2 percent below the 2025 record, with end-of-season stocks of 947.2 million tonnes; the report opened gives no stocks-to-use ratio.⁴⁷

2.3Water

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-003

   About 2.1 billion people lacked safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion lacked safely managed sanitation in 2024.¹³

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

   Agriculture takes about 69 percent of global freshwater withdrawals by one FAO page and 72 percent by another, and 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas with severe water constraints.¹⁵¹⁶

2.4Energy

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

   About 655 million people lacked electricity in 2024, and 92 percent of the world’s people had access.¹¹¹²

2.5Trade

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-006

   The Strait of Hormuz normally carries about 20 million barrels of oil a day, about a quarter of seaborne oil trade, and tanker traffic fell by more than 90 percent after the 2026 crisis.⁵

2.6Finance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-008

   The FAO Food Price Index averaged 133.3 points in August 2026, 2.5 percent above August 2025, with world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier.⁴⁶

2.7CON

1. ReportedEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CON-010

   Desalination supplies about 76 percent of municipal drinking water in the Gulf Cooperation Council states, and 90 to 99 percent in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar; plants were reported damaged from March 2026.²²²¹

2.8Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011

   NOAA kept its El Niño Advisory on 10 September 2026 and gave a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27, as reported by two secondary pages; the CPC text for that date was not opened.⁴⁸⁴⁹

2.9Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is an energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Niño and high import dependence. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 1FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 47‘Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
5. 13United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 15FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 16FAO (ed.), Land and water: water management (page; agriculture uses 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals; 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas facing severe water constraints). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 11IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 12United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 7 facts and figures (page; electricity access 92 percent in 2024; clean cooking access 75 percent in 2024; about 2.1 billion without clean cooking in 2023; renewables 18 percent of final energy in 2023). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 46‘FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
11. 22Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
14. 49‘ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\’s 10 September read: 75% chance El Niño exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through food, water and energy, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries food, water and energy risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on food, water and energy, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 13United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 11IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 12United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 7 facts and figures (page; electricity access 92 percent in 2024; clean cooking access 75 percent in 2024; about 2.1 billion without clean cooking in 2023; renewables 18 percent of final energy in 2023). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 46‘FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
8. 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
9. 17WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2024 (page; one third of river basins with normal conditions; record glacier loss for a third year). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 23POST-CLOSE, context only: UNICEF (ed.), Press release: water for over 1.6 million children in Taiz at risk as fighting intensifies in Yemen (20 October 2026; fuel shortages threaten water systems serving an estimated three million people). United Nations Children’s Fund, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, resolution 64/292, The human right to water and sanitation, 28 July 2010, cited from memory; the document viewer returned navigation text only. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949 relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts (Protocol I), articles 54 and 56, 1977, cited from memory; the ICRC page returned no text. Observation year 1977. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bazilian, M. et al., Considering the energy, water and food nexus: towards an integrated modelling approach, Energy Policy 39(12), 7896 to 7906, 2011, cited from memory; the publisher page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hoff, H., Understanding the Nexus: background paper for the Bonn 2011 Conference, The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, 2011, cited from memory; the SEI page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR07-FOO-001

   Fertiliser shock before planting

   Driver

   route closure and price rise in urea⁵

   Exposure

   import-dependent farming systems; Bangladesh sources 53 percent of fertiliser from the Gulf⁵

   Vulnerability

   thin farm margins; few alternative suppliers

   Capacity

   priority shipments to low-income states; stocks⁵

   Cascade

   ENE → FOO → HLT

   Horizon

   1 to 3 years

2. InferredEQL 2RSK-SR07-WAT-002

   Desalination and power loss in arid coasts

   Driver

   strikes and fuel loss at co-located plants²¹²³

   Exposure

   Gulf states with 90 to 99 percent desalinated supply²²

   Vulnerability

   power and water plants combined; few aquifers

   Capacity

   storage; pipelines; priority supply

   Cascade

   ENE → WAT → HLT

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR07-CLI-003

   Strong El Niño on rain-fed and irrigated crops

   Driver

   very strong El Niño likely in northern fall and winter 2026-27⁴⁸⁴⁹

   Exposure

   eastern and southern Africa food assistance needs⁹

   Vulnerability

   rain-fed farming; low stocks at household level

   Capacity

   early warning; assistance; national reserves

   Cascade

   CLI → FOO, WAT

   Horizon

   annual

4. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR07-FIN-004

   Price and import-bill stress

   Driver

   higher food and energy prices⁴⁶⁸

   Exposure

   low- and lower-middle-income importers⁹

   Vulnerability

   currency and fiscal limits; lost remittances⁵

   Capacity

   social protection; trade facilitation

   Cascade

   FIN → FOO → HLT

   Horizon

   1 to 3 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 23POST-CLOSE, context only: UNICEF (ed.), Press release: water for over 1.6 million children in Taiz at risk as fighting intensifies in Yemen (20 October 2026; fuel shortages threaten water systems serving an estimated three million people). United Nations Children’s Fund, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 22Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
6. 49‘ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\’s 10 September read: 75% chance El Niño exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
7. 9POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 edition (real food prices above headline inflation in about 22 percent of 150 countries, up from 14 percent; Yemen more than 18 million in acute food insecurity; El Niño very strong through early 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 46‘FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
9. 8POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (landing page; commodity prices projected up 23 percent in 2026; energy prices at a four-year high; next update April 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses, United Nations, 1997, cited from memory. Observation year 1997. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 14046:2014, Environmental management: water footprint, principles, requirements and guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 47‘Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
14. 4POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (page of 17 June 2026; 13 hotspots; highest concern Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen and Palestine). Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 3WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis (page; 266 million in crisis-level hunger or worse; 45 million at risk from the Middle East conflict; two famines confirmed in 2025 in Gaza and Sudan). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 24POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Newsroom items of 29 and 30 October 2026 (updated land, soil and water guidance for COP17; El Niño and Rift Valley fever alert). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 13United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (Helsinki, 1992), UNECE, cited from memory. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bazilian, M. et al., Considering the energy, water and food nexus: towards an integrated modelling approach, Energy Policy 39(12), 7896 to 7906, 2011, cited from memory; the publisher page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hoff, H., Understanding the Nexus: background paper for the Bonn 2011 Conference, The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, 2011, cited from memory; the SEI page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jasechko, S. et al., Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally, Nature 625, 715 to 721, 2024, cited from memory; the page redirected to an access gateway; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a prolonged closure of a major energy and fertiliser route in a planting season that coincides with a strong El Niño

Analogues

the 2026 route closure; the El Niño outlook for 2026 and 2027⁵⁴⁸

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   TRD → ENE

   tanker traffic collapses; fuel and gas prices rise

   2026

2. 2

   ENE → FOO

   fertiliser prices rise and shipments are delayed before planting

   2026

3. 3

   CLI → FOO

   El Niño disturbs rainfall in rain-fed regions

   2026 · 2027

4. 4

   ENE → WAT

   fuel and power shortages reduce pumping and desalination

   2026

5. 5

   FIN → FOO

   import bills rise and remittances fall; staple costs rise

   2026

6. 6

   FOO → HLT

   hunger rises in conflict and import-dependent settings

   2027

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01 would travel through Food, Water and Energy Security’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Food, Water and Energy Security 2026, scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01 (2026); Food, Water and Energy Security 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for food, water and energy. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 food, water and energy readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers food, water and energy assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about the world’s food, water and energy systems and its couplings?

Sources searched

FAO and UN agency reports; indicator databases; market monitors; peer-reviewed nexus and groundwater literature

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 46‘FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
2. 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, resolution 64/292, The human right to water and sanitation, 28 July 2010, cited from memory; the document viewer returned navigation text only. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949 relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts (Protocol I), articles 54 and 56, 1977, cited from memory; the ICRC page returned no text. Observation year 1977. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses, United Nations, 1997, cited from memory. Observation year 1997. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (Helsinki, 1992), UNECE, cited from memory. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 14046:2014, Environmental management: water footprint, principles, requirements and guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), Voluntary Guidelines to Support the Progressive Realization of the Right to Adequate Food in the Context of National Food Security, cited from memory. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 14United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 2 facts and figures (page; 8.2 percent undernourished and about 2.3 billion moderately or severely food insecure in 2024; 15.3 percent of countries with moderately to abnormally high food prices in 2024). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 13United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 12United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 7 facts and figures (page; electricity access 92 percent in 2024; clean cooking access 75 percent in 2024; about 2.1 billion without clean cooking in 2023; renewables 18 percent of final energy in 2023). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 1FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 24POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Newsroom items of 29 and 30 October 2026 (updated land, soil and water guidance for COP17; El Niño and Rift Valley fever alert). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 8POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (landing page; commodity prices projected up 23 percent in 2026; energy prices at a four-year high; next update April 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bazilian, M. et al., Considering the energy, water and food nexus: towards an integrated modelling approach, Energy Policy 39(12), 7896 to 7906, 2011, cited from memory; the publisher page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hoff, H., Understanding the Nexus: background paper for the Bonn 2011 Conference, The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, 2011, cited from memory; the SEI page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jasechko, S. et al., Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally, Nature 625, 715 to 721, 2024, cited from memory; the page redirected to an access gateway; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, chapter 5 on food, fibre and other ecosystem products, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Buldyrev, S.V. et al., Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks, Nature 464, 1025 to 1028, 2010, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 4POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (page of 17 June 2026; 13 hotspots; highest concern Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen and Palestine). Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNESCO for UN-Water (eds.), United Nations World Water Development Report 2026: Water for All People (women and girls spend about 250 million hours a day collecting water; about 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water), taken from search-result summaries; the UNESCO and UN-Water pages returned errors. UNESCO, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Global Commission on the Economics of Water, Turning the Tide: A Call to Collective Action (2023; projected 40 percent shortfall in freshwater supply by 2030 without action), taken from press summaries. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000 to 2024: special focus on inequalities (Joint Monitoring Programme, August 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the WHO page returned an error and the report exceeded the size limit. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 11IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 15FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 47‘Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
29. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q3 2026 (about 20 percent of global LNG supply normally passes the Strait of Hormuz; about 110 bcm in 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the IEA page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Water-Energy Nexus (World Energy Outlook excerpt), cited from memory; the IEA page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: EIA (ed.), Today in Energy (items to 3 November 2026; crude refinery inputs down 4.8 million barrels a day, or 6 percent, in the second quarter of 2026). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture (SOLAW 2021), cited from memory; the page returned an error; no figure used. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems (FAOSTAT analytical brief), cited from memory; the page returned an error; no figure used. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
35. 49‘ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\’s 10 September read: 75% chance El Niño exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
36. 21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 22Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. N-01

   How would a closure of a major energy and fertiliser route that overlaps a strong El Niño spread through planting, water pumping and staple prices at the same time?

   INI-SR07-ROU-01 · route shock and El Niño compound test; first output: dependency analysis for six regions.

2. N-02

   Which countries depend on one route or one supplier for fertiliser, fuel and staple imports?

   INI-SR07-DEP-02 · shared import dependence; first output: dependence register.

3. N-03

   How much water does energy need, and how much energy does water need, on current data?

   INI-SR07-WEN-03 · water-energy flows; first output: flow table by region.

4. N-04

   Where do desalination, power and food imports coincide in one exposed place?

   INI-SR07-DES-04 · coastal and desalination exposure; first output: exposure map.

5. N-05

   Where do groundwater decline and irrigated food production overlap?

   INI-SR07-GRW-05 · groundwater and irrigated food; first output: overlay.

6. N-06

   Which governments publish fertiliser stocks and trade on a comparable basis?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: coverage note.

7. N-07

   How do conflict and sanction measures change protection priorities for water and food supply?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. N-08

   Which food, water and energy capabilities have been tested in real shocks, and which are only planned?

   Nexus capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 food, water and energy portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The food, water and energy edition reads national chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National food, water and energy chapters

   nexus reading in each national edition

   IN PREPARATION · national baselines

2. 02

   Sector editions

   food, water, energy, health

   PLANNED · sector Baseline Editions

3. 03

   Food-water-energy model

   the global system of systems for food, water and energy

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Strategic links

   SR-01 · SR-03 supply chains · SR-02 lifeline systems

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   Food, Water and Energy Report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the food, water and energy candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-SR07-2027-01 · Route shock and El Niño Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
3. 49‘ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\’s 10 September read: 75% chance El Niño exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
4. 21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 22Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Common causes

One cause can strike food, water and energy at once: a route closure, a conflict, a climate state or a price shock. The shared cause matters more than the sector.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-01 Water

8.2Domino effects

A failure in one system removes an input from the next. Energy costs reach fertiliser, fertiliser reaches harvests, and fuel shortages reach water plants.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-01 Water

8.3Inter-systemic feedbacks

Food, water and energy also act back on each other. Farming takes most freshwater, water needs power, and high prices change what countries do with trade.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-01 Water

8.4Shared vulnerabilities

Different systems share the same weak points: one route, one supplier, one coastal plant, or one over-drawn aquifer.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-01 Water

8.5Thresholds and tipping

A system can absorb stress until a threshold is crossed. Stocks, plant capacity and famine conditions are such thresholds for food, water and energy.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-01 Water

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
4. 49‘ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\’s 10 September read: 75% chance El Niño exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
5. 3WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis (page; 266 million in crisis-level hunger or worse; 45 million at risk from the Middle East conflict; two famines confirmed in 2025 in Gaza and Sudan). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 46‘FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
7. 23POST-CLOSE, context only: UNICEF (ed.), Press release: water for over 1.6 million children in Taiz at risk as fighting intensifies in Yemen (20 October 2026; fuel shortages threaten water systems serving an estimated three million people). United Nations Children’s Fund, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 9POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 edition (real food prices above headline inflation in about 22 percent of 150 countries, up from 14 percent; Yemen more than 18 million in acute food insecurity; El Niño very strong through early 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 22Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 15FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 16FAO (ed.), Land and water: water management (page; agriculture uses 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals; 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas facing severe water constraints). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Water-Energy Nexus (World Energy Outlook excerpt), cited from memory; the IEA page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: EIA (ed.), Today in Energy (items to 3 November 2026; crude refinery inputs down 4.8 million barrels a day, or 6 percent, in the second quarter of 2026). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jasechko, S. et al., Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally, Nature 625, 715 to 721, 2024, cited from memory; the page redirected to an access gateway; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 47‘Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
17. 13United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Buldyrev, S.V. et al., Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks, Nature 464, 1025 to 1028, 2010, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Food-Water-Energy Model v0

Model ID

MDL-SR07-FWE · v0.1

Purpose

represent food, water and energy as a coupled system and the mechanisms by which stress spreads between fuel, fertiliser, irrigation, drinking water and staple food

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

49 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 food, water and energy annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• FAO⁵: price series behind the urea figures
• GRFC²: country tables and famine classifications
• World Bank⁸⁴⁰: fertiliser forecast table
• UN SDG¹¹¹²: clean cooking count for 2024

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: stocks-to-use ratio

Construct

world cereal ending stocks as a share of annual utilisation

Unit

percent

Method

supply and demand balance compiled by FAO

Source

FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief⁷, post-close, context only

Uncertainty

revised monthly; regional distribution of stocks differs

Known limits

a global ratio does not show stocks near people at risk

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (landing page; commodity prices projected up 23 percent in 2026; energy prices at a four-year high; next update April 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, fertiliser forecast (search summaries give a rise of 14 percent in 2026 and, in two Ghana outlets, about 31 percent), taken from search-result summaries; the page opened gives no fertiliser figure. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), SOFI 2026 headline statistics (prevalence of hunger 7.8 percent in 2025, 8.1 percent in 2024; 2.1 billion moderately or severely food insecure; 510 to 520 million facing hunger in 2030), taken from search-result summaries; the full report was not opened. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 14United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 2 facts and figures (page; 8.2 percent undernourished and about 2.3 billion moderately or severely food insecure in 2024; 15.3 percent of countries with moderately to abnormally high food prices in 2024). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 22Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 11IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 12United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 7 facts and figures (page; electricity access 92 percent in 2024; clean cooking access 75 percent in 2024; about 2.1 billion without clean cooking in 2023; renewables 18 percent of final energy in 2023). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jasechko, S. et al., Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally, Nature 625, 715 to 721, 2024, cited from memory; the page redirected to an access gateway; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Water-Energy Nexus (World Energy Outlook excerpt), cited from memory; the IEA page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 7POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief (release of 2 October 2026; 2026 production 2,979 million tonnes; stocks 950.0 million tonnes; stocks-to-use 31.7 percent). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• FOO
• WAT
• ENE
• CLI
• FIN
• TRD
• CON
• HLT
• MIN
• INF

B.3Regional reading, ten regional clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

B.4Regional card: Gulf coast water and power

• region
• desalination
• power
• food imports

Systems in view

desalination, power, staple imports

Defining events

strikes and damage reports at Gulf plants from March 2026²¹²²

Couplings

ENE → WAT; TRD → FOO

Capability evidence

FAO route and reserve coordination work⁵

Gaps

verified plant damage; storage days of supply

Agenda items

N-01 · N-04

B.5How countries appear in the global edition

Countries enter the food, water and energy edition through the chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 13United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 11IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 15FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 16FAO (ed.), Land and water: water management (page; agriculture uses 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals; 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas facing severe water constraints). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 46‘FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
9. 47‘Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
10. 22Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
12. 49‘ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\’s 10 September read: 75% chance El Niño exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’back
13. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: EIA (ed.), Today in Energy (items to 3 November 2026; crude refinery inputs down 4.8 million barrels a day, or 6 percent, in the second quarter of 2026). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 8POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (landing page; commodity prices projected up 23 percent in 2026; energy prices at a four-year high; next update April 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q3 2026 (about 20 percent of global LNG supply normally passes the Strait of Hormuz; about 110 bcm in 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the IEA page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 9POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 edition (real food prices above headline inflation in about 22 percent of 150 countries, up from 14 percent; Yemen more than 18 million in acute food insecurity; El Niño very strong through early 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 7POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief (release of 2 October 2026; 2026 production 2,979 million tonnes; stocks 950.0 million tonnes; stocks-to-use 31.7 percent). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 19POST-CLOSE, context only: WMO (ed.), Media centre releases on El Niño, 3 July to 8 October 2026 (titles only, including El Niño set to become very strong, 3 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 17WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2024 (page; one third of river basins with normal conditions; record glacier loss for a third year). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.149 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
2. 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
3. 3WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis (page; 266 million in crisis-level hunger or worse; 45 million at risk from the Middle East conflict; two famines confirmed in 2025 in Gaza and Sudan). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
4. 4POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (page of 17 June 2026; 13 hotspots; highest concern Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen and Palestine). Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
5. 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
6. 6FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index (September 2026 release; 136.0 points; sub-indices). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
7. 7POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief (release of 2 October 2026; 2026 production 2,979 million tonnes; stocks 950.0 million tonnes; stocks-to-use 31.7 percent). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
8. 8POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (landing page; commodity prices projected up 23 percent in 2026; energy prices at a four-year high; next update April 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
9. 9POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 edition (real food prices above headline inflation in about 22 percent of 150 countries, up from 14 percent; Yemen more than 18 million in acute food insecurity; El Niño very strong through early 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
10. 10World Bank (ed.), The Commodity Markets Outlook in eight charts (October 2025 edition; fertiliser price index 28 percent above a year earlier in the third quarter of 2025; projected to ease in 2026 and 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
11. 11IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
12. 12United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 7 facts and figures (page; electricity access 92 percent in 2024; clean cooking access 75 percent in 2024; about 2.1 billion without clean cooking in 2023; renewables 18 percent of final energy in 2023). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
13. 13United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
14. 14United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 2 facts and figures (page; 8.2 percent undernourished and about 2.3 billion moderately or severely food insecure in 2024; 15.3 percent of countries with moderately to abnormally high food prices in 2024). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
15. 15FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
16. 16FAO (ed.), Land and water: water management (page; agriculture uses 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals; 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas facing severe water constraints). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8
17. 17WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2024 (page; one third of river basins with normal conditions; record glacier loss for a third year). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
18. 18POST-CLOSE, context only: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (ed.), ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 8 October 2026 (El Niño advisory; strong to very strong El Niño likely through January to March 2027; chance above 83 percent). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
19. 19POST-CLOSE, context only: WMO (ed.), Media centre releases on El Niño, 3 July to 8 October 2026 (titles only, including El Niño set to become very strong, 3 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
20. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: EIA (ed.), Today in Energy (items to 3 November 2026; crude refinery inputs down 4.8 million barrels a day, or 6 percent, in the second quarter of 2026). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
21. 21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
22. 22Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
23. 23POST-CLOSE, context only: UNICEF (ed.), Press release: water for over 1.6 million children in Taiz at risk as fighting intensifies in Yemen (20 October 2026; fuel shortages threaten water systems serving an estimated three million people). United Nations Children’s Fund, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
24. 24POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Newsroom items of 29 and 30 October 2026 (updated land, soil and water guidance for COP17; El Niño and Rift Valley fever alert). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q3 2026 (about 20 percent of global LNG supply normally passes the Strait of Hormuz; about 110 bcm in 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the IEA page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNESCO for UN-Water (eds.), United Nations World Water Development Report 2026: Water for All People (women and girls spend about 250 million hours a day collecting water; about 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water), taken from search-result summaries; the UNESCO and UN-Water pages returned errors. UNESCO, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000 to 2024: special focus on inequalities (Joint Monitoring Programme, August 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the WHO page returned an error and the report exceeded the size limit. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Global Commission on the Economics of Water, Turning the Tide: A Call to Collective Action (2023; projected 40 percent shortfall in freshwater supply by 2030 without action), taken from press summaries. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Water-Energy Nexus (World Energy Outlook excerpt), cited from memory; the IEA page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture (SOLAW 2021), cited from memory; the page returned an error; no figure used. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems (FAOSTAT analytical brief), cited from memory; the page returned an error; no figure used. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, chapter 5 on food, fibre and other ecosystem products, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bazilian, M. et al., Considering the energy, water and food nexus: towards an integrated modelling approach, Energy Policy 39(12), 7896 to 7906, 2011, cited from memory; the publisher page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hoff, H., Understanding the Nexus: background paper for the Bonn 2011 Conference, The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, 2011, cited from memory; the SEI page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jasechko, S. et al., Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally, Nature 625, 715 to 721, 2024, cited from memory; the page redirected to an access gateway; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, resolution 64/292, The human right to water and sanitation, 28 July 2010, cited from memory; the document viewer returned navigation text only. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949 relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts (Protocol I), articles 54 and 56, 1977, cited from memory; the ICRC page returned no text. Observation year 1977. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses, United Nations, 1997, cited from memory. Observation year 1997. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (Helsinki, 1992), UNECE, cited from memory. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, fertiliser forecast (search summaries give a rise of 14 percent in 2026 and, in two Ghana outlets, about 31 percent), taken from search-result summaries; the page opened gives no fertiliser figure. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), SOFI 2026 headline statistics (prevalence of hunger 7.8 percent in 2025, 8.1 percent in 2024; 2.1 billion moderately or severely food insecure; 510 to 520 million facing hunger in 2030), taken from search-result summaries; the full report was not opened. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 14046:2014, Environmental management: water footprint, principles, requirements and guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), Voluntary Guidelines to Support the Progressive Realization of the Right to Adequate Food in the Context of National Food Security, cited from memory. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Buldyrev, S.V. et al., Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks, Nature 464, 1025 to 1028, 2010, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
46. 46‘FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’ Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
47. 47‘Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’ Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
48. 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’ Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
49. 49‘ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\’s 10 September read: 75% chance El Niño exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’ Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version