Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

13 min read0 figures13 tables13 notesNR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Gap between the two FAO withdrawal shares for agriculture	72 − 69	3 percentage points
(2)	Share of people with access to electricity	100 − 8	92 percent as published
(3)	Hunger count relative to acute food insecurity	645 ÷ 266	≈ 2.4
(4)	Urea rise gap between Brazil and the United States	60 − 52	8 percentage points

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, Food-Water-Energy Model v0

Model ID: MDL-SR07-FWE · v0.1
Purpose: represent food, water and energy as a coupled system and the mechanisms by which stress spreads between fuel, fertiliser, irrigation, drinking water and staple food
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

5strong

documented within one season

3moderate

documented, buffered

12weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID: DC-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 49 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: the 2027 food, water and energy annual cut

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
Element	Baseline 2026	2027 global annual
Sources	cited global publications, pinned by edition	national, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	Food-Water-Energy Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to federation evidence
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Hunger estimate	2025	Jul 2026	annual	SOFI 2027
Acute food insecurity	2025	Apr 2026	annual	GRFC 2027
Route shock statement	to Apr 2026	28 Apr 2026	one-off	FAO updates
Food Price Index	Aug 2026	4 Sep 2026	monthly	next monthly release
Cereal brief	2026/27	Sep 2026	monthly	next monthly release
Electricity access	2024	Jun 2026	annual	Tracking SDG7 2027
Water access	2024	2026	annual	next SDG update
El Niño outlook	Oct 2026	8 Oct 2026	monthly	12 Nov 2026
Price outlook	Oct 2026	Oct 2026	twice a year	Apr 2027⁸⁴⁰
Gulf plant damage	2026	Mar to Apr 2026	per event	not verified

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Food	GOOD	trend on a common basis
Water	PARTIAL	groundwater on one scale
Energy	GOOD	clean cooking, current count
Fertiliser	THIN	stocks and trade
Trade routes	PARTIAL	flows by commodity
Climate state	GOOD	yield outcomes
Conflict and water	THIN	verified plant damage
Finance of resilience	THIN	import-bill estimates

Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
Field	Source that would fill it	Blocker
Fertiliser trade volumes and stocks, current, on a common basis	FAO, IFA and national statistics	not retrieved; the FAO statement gives a delayed range only⁵
Base month and price series behind the urea price rises	FAO and market reporters	the FAO statement gives percentages only; two markets are named
World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook fertiliser forecast for 2026	World Bank, October 2026⁴⁰	the page opened gives no fertiliser figure and search summaries disagree (14 percent and about 31 percent)
SOFI 2026 prevalence and 2030 projection	FAO SOFI 2026 full report⁴¹	only the landing page was opened; the prevalence and projection come from search summaries
Revision of the 2024 hunger estimate between SOFI editions	FAO SOFI 2025 and 2026¹⁴⁴¹	the UN SDG page gives 8.2 percent for 2024; a search summary of SOFI 2026 gives 8.1 percent
GRFC 2026 share of analysed population in 2024	GRFC 2026 report²	the page opened gives 22.3 percent; search summaries give 22.7 percent
Verified damage to Gulf power and desalination plants	national authorities and independent assessments²¹²²	press and think-tank reports only; strikes are disputed between parties
Desalination share of drinking water for the UAE	national statistics and DesalData	the think-tank page gives 42 percent while other reports give about 90 percent
Clean cooking count for 2024	Tracking SDG7 2026 report¹¹¹²	the UN page gives 75 percent access but no count; the report PDF returned an access error
Groundwater depletion on one scale across food-producing regions	peer-reviewed series³⁵	the paper was not opened
Water used for energy and energy used for water, current values	IEA and national statistics²⁹	the IEA page returned an access error
Crop yield outcomes of the 2026 input shock and El Niño	FAO, USDA and national agencies	not yet observed; the USDA WASDE page gave no figures

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by the FAO Director-General on 28 April 2026. One-off. Role: binds FOO-007 and TRD-006. Coverage: global. The page was read in full; it gives percentages and ranges only.

EVD-SR07-001

FAO statement on the Strait of Hormuz crisis⁵

Issued by the Global Network Against Food Crises. Annual. Role: binds FOO-002. Coverage: 47 countries and territories. The landing page was read; the full report was not opened.

EVD-SR07-002

Global Report on Food Crises 2026 landing page²

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-SR07-001	EVD-SR07-002
Completeness	two markets and a delay range	countries with analysed data only
Timeliness	about 2 weeks after mid-April	about 4 months after the year
Revision	no revision noted	year-on-year share differs across summaries
Method transparency	base month not stated	IPC and CH classification
External validation	not assessed	multi-agency review

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

FAO⁵: price series behind the urea figures
GRFC²: country tables and famine classifications
World Bank⁸⁴⁰: fertiliser forecast table
UN SDG¹¹¹²: clean cooking count for 2024

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
AQUASTAT	FAO global information system on water and agriculture
ENSO	El Niño Southern Oscillation
FAO	Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
GCC	Gulf Cooperation Council
GRFC	Global Report on Food Crises
IPC	Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
LNG	liquefied natural gas
SDG	Sustainable Development Goal
SOFI	The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World
WFP	World Food Programme
WMO	World Meteorological Organization
NOAA	US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the global indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-SR07-FWE-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	2027
A.7	Regional notes	regional food, water and energy cards	WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: stocks-to-use ratio

Construct: world cereal ending stocks as a share of annual utilisation
Unit: percent
Method: supply and demand balance compiled by FAO
Source: FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief⁷, post-close, context only
Uncertainty: revised monthly; regional distribution of stocks differs
Known limits: a global ratio does not show stocks near people at risk

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

8POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (landing page; commodity prices projected up 23 percent in 2026; energy prices at a four-year high; next update April 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, fertiliser forecast (search summaries give a rise of 14 percent in 2026 and, in two Ghana outlets, about 31 percent), taken from search-result summaries; the page opened gives no fertiliser figure. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), SOFI 2026 headline statistics (prevalence of hunger 7.8 percent in 2025, 8.1 percent in 2024; 2.1 billion moderately or severely food insecure; 510 to 520 million facing hunger in 2030), taken from search-result summaries; the full report was not opened. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 2 facts and figures (page; 8.2 percent undernourished and about 2.3 billion moderately or severely food insecure in 2024; 15.3 percent of countries with moderately to abnormally high food prices in 2024). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 7 facts and figures (page; electricity access 92 percent in 2024; clean cooking access 75 percent in 2024; about 2.1 billion without clean cooking in 2023; renewables 18 percent of final energy in 2023). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jasechko, S. et al., Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally, Nature 625, 715 to 721, 2024, cited from memory; the page redirected to an access gateway; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Water-Energy Nexus (World Energy Outlook excerpt), cited from memory; the IEA page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief (release of 2 October 2026; 2026 production 2,979 million tonnes; stocks 950.0 million tonnes; stocks-to-use 31.7 percent). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex A: Methodology. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Food–Water–Energy Security (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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