Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

16 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Food, water and energy fail together
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Niño
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 49 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.149 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  2. 2Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis (page; 266 million in crisis-level hunger or worse; 45 million at risk from the Middle East conflict; two famines confirmed in 2025 in Gaza and Sudan). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
  4. 4POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (page of 17 June 2026; 13 hotspots; highest concern Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen and Palestine). Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  5. 5FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  6. 6FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index (September 2026 release; 136.0 points; sub-indices). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  7. 7POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief (release of 2 October 2026; 2026 production 2,979 million tonnes; stocks 950.0 million tonnes; stocks-to-use 31.7 percent). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  8. 8POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (landing page; commodity prices projected up 23 percent in 2026; energy prices at a four-year high; next update April 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  9. 9POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 edition (real food prices above headline inflation in about 22 percent of 150 countries, up from 14 percent; Yemen more than 18 million in acute food insecurity; El Niño very strong through early 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
  10. 10World Bank (ed.), The Commodity Markets Outlook in eight charts (October 2025 edition; fertiliser price index 28 percent above a year earlier in the third quarter of 2025; projected to ease in 2026 and 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  11. 11IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  12. 12United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 7 facts and figures (page; electricity access 92 percent in 2024; clean cooking access 75 percent in 2024; about 2.1 billion without clean cooking in 2023; renewables 18 percent of final energy in 2023). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  13. 13United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 14United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 2 facts and figures (page; 8.2 percent undernourished and about 2.3 billion moderately or severely food insecure in 2024; 15.3 percent of countries with moderately to abnormally high food prices in 2024). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  15. 15FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16FAO (ed.), Land and water: water management (page; agriculture uses 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals; 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas facing severe water constraints). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8
  17. 17WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2024 (page; one third of river basins with normal conditions; record glacier loss for a third year). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
  18. 18POST-CLOSE, context only: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (ed.), ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 8 October 2026 (El Niño advisory; strong to very strong El Niño likely through January to March 2027; chance above 83 percent). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  19. 19POST-CLOSE, context only: WMO (ed.), Media centre releases on El Niño, 3 July to 8 October 2026 (titles only, including El Niño set to become very strong, 3 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  20. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: EIA (ed.), Today in Energy (items to 3 November 2026; crude refinery inputs down 4.8 million barrels a day, or 6 percent, in the second quarter of 2026). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21The National (ed.), Iran’s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  22. 22Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  23. 23POST-CLOSE, context only: UNICEF (ed.), Press release: water for over 1.6 million children in Taiz at risk as fighting intensifies in Yemen (20 October 2026; fuel shortages threaten water systems serving an estimated three million people). United Nations Children’s Fund, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
  24. 24POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Newsroom items of 29 and 30 October 2026 (updated land, soil and water guidance for COP17; El Niño and Rift Valley fever alert). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q3 2026 (about 20 percent of global LNG supply normally passes the Strait of Hormuz; about 110 bcm in 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the IEA page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNESCO for UN-Water (eds.), United Nations World Water Development Report 2026: Water for All People (women and girls spend about 250 million hours a day collecting water; about 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water), taken from search-result summaries; the UNESCO and UN-Water pages returned errors. UNESCO, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000 to 2024: special focus on inequalities (Joint Monitoring Programme, August 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the WHO page returned an error and the report exceeded the size limit. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Global Commission on the Economics of Water, Turning the Tide: A Call to Collective Action (2023; projected 40 percent shortfall in freshwater supply by 2030 without action), taken from press summaries. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Water-Energy Nexus (World Energy Outlook excerpt), cited from memory; the IEA page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture (SOLAW 2021), cited from memory; the page returned an error; no figure used. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems (FAOSTAT analytical brief), cited from memory; the page returned an error; no figure used. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, chapter 5 on food, fibre and other ecosystem products, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bazilian, M. et al., Considering the energy, water and food nexus: towards an integrated modelling approach, Energy Policy 39(12), 7896 to 7906, 2011, cited from memory; the publisher page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hoff, H., Understanding the Nexus: background paper for the Bonn 2011 Conference, The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, 2011, cited from memory; the SEI page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jasechko, S. et al., Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally, Nature 625, 715 to 721, 2024, cited from memory; the page redirected to an access gateway; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, resolution 64/292, The human right to water and sanitation, 28 July 2010, cited from memory; the document viewer returned navigation text only. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949 relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts (Protocol I), articles 54 and 56, 1977, cited from memory; the ICRC page returned no text. Observation year 1977. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses, United Nations, 1997, cited from memory. Observation year 1997. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (Helsinki, 1992), UNECE, cited from memory. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, fertiliser forecast (search summaries give a rise of 14 percent in 2026 and, in two Ghana outlets, about 31 percent), taken from search-result summaries; the page opened gives no fertiliser figure. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), SOFI 2026 headline statistics (prevalence of hunger 7.8 percent in 2025, 8.1 percent in 2024; 2.1 billion moderately or severely food insecure; 510 to 520 million facing hunger in 2030), taken from search-result summaries; the full report was not opened. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 14046:2014, Environmental management: water footprint, principles, requirements and guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), Voluntary Guidelines to Support the Progressive Realization of the Right to Adequate Food in the Context of National Food Security, cited from memory. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Buldyrev, S.V. et al., Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks, Nature 464, 1025 to 1028, 2010, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  46. 46‘FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’ Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  47. 47‘Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’ Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  48. 48‘The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’ Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  49. 49‘ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\’s 10 September read: 75% chance El Niño exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Niño Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.’ Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Strategic Systems Report 2026: Food–Water–Energy Security, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Strategic Systems Series SR-07
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 food, water and energy edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
SR-07NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-STR-SR-07-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. SR-07 edition Reports Food, Water and Energy Security 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-07 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Food–Water–Energy Security (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Food, Water and Energy Security.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Water, Energy and Food

Water gives energy cooling water and hydropower (0.6); water gives food irrigation (0.8): the strongest relations between the sectors this subject joins.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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