Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

14 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Pressure builds across the system
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Ocean heat and reef loss that overlaps stress on the Atlantic circulation and the Amazon
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 45 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.145 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockström, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; ocean acidification near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  2. 2Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockström, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  4. 4Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Planetary boundaries (overview page: four crossed in 2015, six in 2023, seven now). Stockholm University, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  5. 5Rockström, J. et al., Safe and just Earth system boundaries, Nature 619, 102 to 111, 2023 (seven of eight globally quantified boundaries exceeded; 52% of land and 86% of population with two or more exceeded). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
  6. 6Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  7. 7Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  8. 8ECMWF and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  9. 9WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; sea-level rise 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  10. 10NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965, 2025 (fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 422.45 ppm projected; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget about 235 GtCO2 from 2025). Global Carbon Project. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 (landing page: projected 1.1% rise in fossil CO2 emissions, a record high; headline tables not read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 2641, 2025 (2015 to 2024 average 1.24 degrees C; 2024 at 1.52; human-induced 1.36; energy imbalance 0.89 W per m² for 2005 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 14UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  15. 15IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  17. 17van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  18. 18Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  19. 19Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 7, chapter 8
  20. 20Steffen, W., Rockström, J. et al., Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(33), 8252 to 8259, 2018 (abstract read). Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  21. 21Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105(6), 1786 to 1793, 2008 (abstract read). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  22. 22Outside the Safe Operating Space of the Planetary Boundary for Novel Entities, Environmental Science and Technology 56(3), 1510 to 1521, 2022 (abstract read). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 8
  23. 23Wang-Erlandsson, L. et al., A planetary boundary for green water, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment 3(6), 380 to 392, 2022 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8
  24. 24Steffen, W. et al., Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet, Science 347(6223), 2015 (abstract read). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  25. 25Lenton, T.M., Rockström, J., Gaffney, O. et al., Climate tipping points: too risky to bet against, Nature 575, 592 to 595, 2019 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
  26. 26Rockström, J. et al., A safe operating space for humanity, Nature 461, 472 to 475, 2009 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  27. 27Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, targets 2 and 3 (restore 30% of degraded ecosystems; conserve 30% of land, water and seas by 2030; adoption date not shown on the page). CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  28. 28Global Commission on the Economics of Water (ed.), Turning the Tide: A Call to Collective Action, release page of 17 March 2023 (about 7% more atmospheric moisture per degree C of warming). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  29. 29WMO and UNEP (eds.), Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2022 (assessment page read; finalised 25 to 29 July 2022; no figure taken from it). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted 2015, cited from memory; the page returned only headings. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (1987) and the Kigali Amendment (2016), cited from memory. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 1987. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Boers, N., Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Nature Climate Change 11, 680 to 688, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Wunderling, N. et al., Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming, Earth System Dynamics 12, 601 to 619, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rocha, J.C., Peterson, G., Bodin, O. and Levin, S., Cascading regime shifts within and across scales, Science 362, 1379 to 1383, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Scheffer, M. et al., Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461, 53 to 59, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Boulton, C.A., Lenton, T.M. and Boers, N., Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s, Nature Climate Change 12, 271 to 278, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hansen, J.E. et al., Global warming in the pipeline, Oxford Open Climate Change 3(1), kgad008, 2023, cited from memory; the paper’s view on climate sensitivity differs from the IPCC range. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rockström, J. et al., Identifying a safe and just corridor for people and the planet, Earth’s Future 9, e2020EF001866, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 on nature restoration, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; check the act number against the Official Journal. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2464 on corporate sustainability reporting, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory; check the act number against the Official Journal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Science Based Targets Network, Science-Based Targets for Nature: Initial Guidance for Business, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Global Chemicals Outlook II: From Legacies to Innovative Solutions, 2019, cited from memory; no figure used. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, 2019, and ISO 14090:2019 Adaptation to climate change, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  45. 45Drivers of the extreme North Atlantic marine heatwave during 2023, Nature 642(8068), 636 to 643, 2025 (authors not recorded here; bibliographic record and abstract read; no figure used). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 5

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Strategic Systems Report 2026: Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Strategic Systems Series SR-09
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 planetary boundaries edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
SR-09NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-STR-SR-09-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

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Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. SR-09 edition Reports Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-09 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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