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Key findings

Twelve findings carry the human systems baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

4 min read1 figure0 tables10 notesNR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1People and places change together
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 DEM
    3. 2.3 Cities
    4. 2.4 HOU
    5. 2.5 AGE
    6. 2.6 Climate forcing
    7. 2.7 MIG
    8. 2.8 Finance
    9. 2.9 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A heatwave that meets an ageing, dense and informally housed district
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-007

China recorded 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths in 2025, so the population fell by 3.39 million to 1,404.89 million.

Figure 2.1China births and deaths, 2025 (million)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Deaths11.31
Births7.92
Natural decrease (births minus deaths)3.39

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China11. The third bar is a Nexus derivation, method (1).

Implication

A shrinking population is a planning fact for housing, schools, care and public finance, and it arrives at different speeds in different places. The UN counts 63 countries or areas whose population has already peaked1.

What would move it

Births in 2026, marriage numbers, ageing of the workforce and city-level population change would each move this finding.

2.2DEM

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-001

    The UN projects a world population peak of around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024, and about 10.2 billion by 2100.1

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-002

    Global fertility stood at 2.25 births per woman in 2024, down from 3.31 in 1990; more than half of countries are below the replacement level of 2.1 and nearly a fifth are below 1.4.1

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-007

    China recorded 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths in 2025, so the population fell by 3.39 million to 1,404.89 million.11

  4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-008

    Japan recorded 686,061 births and a total fertility rate of 1.15 in 2024, against 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo’s rate was 0.96.12

2.3Cities

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-URB-003

    In 2025 cities hold 45 per cent of the world’s 8.2 billion people, towns 36 per cent and rural areas 19 per cent; in 1950 cities held 20 per cent.2

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-URB-004

    Cities are projected to add 986 million residents by 2050, over half of them in seven countries, while more than 3,000 cities lost population between 2015 and 2025.2

2.4HOU

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HOU-005

    About 1.12 billion people live in slums or informal settlements, roughly one in four urban residents.510

2.5AGE

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AGE-006

    By the late 2070s the number of people aged 65 and over is projected to reach 2.2 billion, more than the number of children under 18, and 265 million people will be aged 80 or over by the mid-2030s.1

2.6Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-009

    Heat-related deaths averaged about 546,000 a year in 2012 to 2021, up 23 per cent in rate since the 1990s; WHO gives 489,000 a year for 2000 to 2019, with 45 per cent in Asia.1621

2.7MIG

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIG-010

    Sub-Saharan Africa reached a record 38.8 million internally displaced people at the end of 2024, around 46 per cent of the global total.15

2.8Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

    Cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action.8

2.9Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a heatwave that meets an ageing, dense and informally housed district with a loss of power. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 11National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 1UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 12Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 2UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 5United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 10World Bank (ed.), Urban Development overview (page: more than four billion people in cities; nearly 7 in 10 by 2050; about one quarter of urban residents in slums). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 16WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 21WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 15IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (report page: sub-Saharan Africa a record 38.8 million internally displaced, around 46 per cent of the global total; the global counter showed no value). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 8UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Cities, Demography and Human Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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