Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

5 min read1 figure0 tables8 notesNR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1People and places change together
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A heatwave that meets an ageing, dense and informally housed district
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Human systems are the people, places and services that every other system depends on. The 2025 evidence shows the same mechanisms at work in very different places. The world had 8.2 billion people in 2024 and the UN projects a peak of around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s1. Global fertility stands at 2.25 births per woman, down from 3.31 in 1990, and 63 countries have already passed their population peak1. In 2025 cities hold 45 per cent of the world’s people, towns 36 per cent and rural areas 19 per cent, and cities are projected to add 986 million residents by 20502. About 1.12 billion people live in slums or informal settlements5. China recorded 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths in 202511, and Japan recorded 686,061 births in 202412. Heat killed about 546,000 people a year in 2012 to 202116. This baseline reads these facts as mechanisms, not as a list. It ranks no country or city, forecasts no outcome and recommends no policy.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the human systems baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. Yes: falling fertility, longer lives, migration and urban growth recur across regions.12

    Do human systems have common causes of change?Reported

  2. Through housing, health, work and local finance, which share the same people and places.516

    How do pressures spread?Inferred

  3. Yes: cities hold 45 per cent of people and add 986 million by 2050.2

    Is the world still urbanising?Reported

  4. No: more than 3,000 cities lost population from 2015 to 2025.2

    Is every place growing?Reported

  5. About 1.12 billion people live in slums or informal settlements.5

    How large is informal housing?Reported

  6. It adds care, health and fiscal load, and heat risk for older people.121

    Does ageing change the picture?Reported

  7. About 546,000 deaths a year, with older adults most exposed.1621

    What does heat add?Reported

  8. A heatwave that meets an ageing, informally housed district with a power loss. SCN-SR11-HEAT-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-007

China recorded 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths in 2025, so the population fell by 3.39 million to 1,404.89 million.

Figure S.1China births and deaths, 2025 (million)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Deaths11.31
Births7.92
Natural decrease (births minus deaths)3.39

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China11. The third bar is a Nexus derivation, method (1).

A shrinking population is a planning fact for housing, schools, care and public finance, and it arrives at different speeds in different places. The UN counts 63 countries or areas whose population has already peaked1.

S.4At a glance

8.2billion

world population, 20241

2.25births per woman

global fertility, 20241

986million

city residents added by 20502

1.12billion

slums and informal settlements5

546,000deaths a year

heat-related, 2012 to 202116

<20per cent

share of city climate finance need met8

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading people and places as one moving system.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people these changes arrive as a hot flat, a long wait for care, a rent that rises or a school that closes.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Cities receive less than a fifth of the finance they need for climate action, and informal housing is large.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Human-system risk is well described country by country and thinly measured within cities.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of the world’s cities, demography and human systems and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a population forecast, a migration policy position, a city league table or an assessment of any government, city or community. Population policy, planning and service delivery rest with national and local authorities.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 human systems edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 5United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 11National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 12Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 16WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 21WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 8UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Cities, Demography and Human Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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