Strategic Systems Report 2026: Cities, Demography and Human Systems

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the human systems baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. Yes: falling fertility, longer lives, migration and urban growth recur across regions.¹²

   Do human systems have common causes of change?Reported

2. Through housing, health, work and local finance, which share the same people and places.⁵¹⁶

   How do pressures spread?Inferred

3. Yes: cities hold 45 per cent of people and add 986 million by 2050.²

   Is the world still urbanising?Reported

4. No: more than 3,000 cities lost population from 2015 to 2025.²

   Is every place growing?Reported

5. About 1.12 billion people live in slums or informal settlements.⁵

   How large is informal housing?Reported

6. It adds care, health and fiscal load, and heat risk for older people.¹²¹

   Does ageing change the picture?Reported

7. About 546,000 deaths a year, with older adults most exposed.¹⁶²¹

   What does heat add?Reported

8. A heatwave that meets an ageing, informally housed district with a power loss. SCN-SR11-HEAT-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-007

China recorded 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths in 2025, so the population fell by 3.39 million to 1,404.89 million.

A shrinking population is a planning fact for housing, schools, care and public finance, and it arrives at different speeds in different places. The UN counts 63 countries or areas whose population has already peaked¹.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 5United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 11National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 12Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 16WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 21WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 8UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is human systems risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry human systems shocks into other systems?
• Which human systems capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five mechanism chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The human systems-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their human systems content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → HLT ← ENE

   A heatwave and a power loss reach older residents and hospitals together.

   Reported heat deaths¹⁶²¹

2. 02

   URB → DEV

   Fast city growth outpaces services and adds informal housing.

   Reported UN DESA² · SDG Report⁵

3. 03

   DEM → FIN

   A falling birth count and an ageing structure change the tax and care base.

   Inferred China and Japan¹¹¹²

4. 04

   CLI → FIN

   Climate risk meets a city finance gap.

   Reported UN-Habitat⁸

5. 05

   MIG → URB

   Displaced people move into cities and towns.

   Inferred IDMC¹⁵

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 11National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 12Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 9ILO (ed.), Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture, third edition (news release of 30 April 2018; about 2 billion workers, more than 61 per cent of the employed; Africa 85.8 per cent). International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 8UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 16WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 21WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 15IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (report page: sub-Saharan Africa a record 38.8 million internally displaced, around 46 per cent of the global total; the global counter showed no value). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-007

China recorded 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths in 2025, so the population fell by 3.39 million to 1,404.89 million.

Implication

A shrinking population is a planning fact for housing, schools, care and public finance, and it arrives at different speeds in different places. The UN counts 63 countries or areas whose population has already peaked¹.

What would move it

Births in 2026, marriage numbers, ageing of the workforce and city-level population change would each move this finding.

2.2DEM

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-001

   The UN projects a world population peak of around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024, and about 10.2 billion by 2100.¹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-002

   Global fertility stood at 2.25 births per woman in 2024, down from 3.31 in 1990; more than half of countries are below the replacement level of 2.1 and nearly a fifth are below 1.4.¹

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-007

   China recorded 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths in 2025, so the population fell by 3.39 million to 1,404.89 million.¹¹

4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-008

   Japan recorded 686,061 births and a total fertility rate of 1.15 in 2024, against 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo’s rate was 0.96.¹²

2.3Cities

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-URB-003

   In 2025 cities hold 45 per cent of the world’s 8.2 billion people, towns 36 per cent and rural areas 19 per cent; in 1950 cities held 20 per cent.²

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-URB-004

   Cities are projected to add 986 million residents by 2050, over half of them in seven countries, while more than 3,000 cities lost population between 2015 and 2025.²

2.4HOU

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HOU-005

   About 1.12 billion people live in slums or informal settlements, roughly one in four urban residents.⁵¹⁰

2.5AGE

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AGE-006

   By the late 2070s the number of people aged 65 and over is projected to reach 2.2 billion, more than the number of children under 18, and 265 million people will be aged 80 or over by the mid-2030s.¹

2.6Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-009

   Heat-related deaths averaged about 546,000 a year in 2012 to 2021, up 23 per cent in rate since the 1990s; WHO gives 489,000 a year for 2000 to 2019, with 45 per cent in Asia.¹⁶²¹

2.7MIG

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIG-010

   Sub-Saharan Africa reached a record 38.8 million internally displaced people at the end of 2024, around 46 per cent of the global total.¹⁵

2.8Finance

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

   Cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action.⁸

2.9Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a heatwave that meets an ageing, dense and informally housed district with a loss of power. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 11National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 1UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 12Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 2UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 10World Bank (ed.), Urban Development overview (page: more than four billion people in cities; nearly 7 in 10 by 2050; about one quarter of urban residents in slums). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 16WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 21WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 15IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (report page: sub-Saharan Africa a record 38.8 million internally displaced, around 46 per cent of the global total; the global counter showed no value). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 8UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through human systems, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries human systems risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on human systems, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 5United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 16WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 15IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (report page: sub-Saharan Africa a record 38.8 million internally displaced, around 46 per cent of the global total; the global counter showed no value). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 21WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 8UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 9ILO (ed.), Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture, third edition (news release of 30 April 2018; about 2 billion workers, more than 61 per cent of the employed; Africa 85.8 per cent). International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 22WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet (page dated 20 July 2026; about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92 per cent in low- and middle-income countries; the page states no data year). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD and European Commission (eds.), Cities in the World: A New Perspective on Urbanisation, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2020, with the Degree of Urbanisation method endorsed by the UN Statistical Commission in 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 23United Nations, New Urban Agenda (adopted at Habitat III in Quito on 20 October 2016; endorsed by the General Assembly on 23 December 2016; Habitat III page read). United Nations, Quito and New York. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bettencourt, L.M.A. et al., Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lutz, W., Goujon, A., KC, S., Stonawski, M. and Stilianakis, N. (eds.), Demographic and Human Capital Scenarios for the 21st Century, Publications Office of the European Union, 2018, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR11-CLI-001

   Heat on an ageing and dense population

   Driver

   rising heat exposure and an ageing population²¹¹⁶

   Exposure

   older residents, informal districts, hospitals

   Vulnerability

   low-quality housing, limited cooling, social isolation²¹

   Capacity

   heat action plans; cooling access; community checks

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT, ENE

   Horizon

   1 to 3 years

2. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR11-DEV-002

   Informal growth without services

   Driver

   city growth of 986 million by 2050²

   Exposure

   slums and informal settlements⁵

   Vulnerability

   housing, water and transport gaps; flood exposure⁵

   Capacity

   upgrading; land and service planning²³

   Cascade

   DEV → HLT → FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

3. InferredEQL 3RSK-SR11-DEM-003

   Shrinking and ageing places with fixed costs

   Driver

   births below deaths in China and Japan¹¹¹²

   Exposure

   small cities and towns that lost population²

   Vulnerability

   fixed network costs on a falling base

   Capacity

   service consolidation; migration; productivity

   Cascade

   DEM → FIN → HLT

   Horizon

   5 to 10 years

4. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR11-FIN-004

   City finance gap for adaptation

   Driver

   under 20 per cent of climate finance need met⁸

   Exposure

   cities in hazard-prone regions

   Vulnerability

   weak own-source revenue; adaptation financed less than mitigation⁸

   Capacity

   municipal finance reform; national transfers²³

   Cascade

   FIN → INF → HLT

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 21WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 16WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 5United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 23United Nations, New Urban Agenda (adopted at Habitat III in Quito on 20 October 2016; endorsed by the General Assembly on 23 December 2016; Habitat III page read). United Nations, Quito and New York. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 11National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 12Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 8UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 6UN DESA (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 11, facts and figures (latest data 2026: about 1.16 billion in slums, informal settlements or inadequate housing; 24.8 per cent of urban residents in slums in 2022; 53.6 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 1UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 9ILO (ed.), Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture, third edition (news release of 30 April 2018; about 2 billion workers, more than 61 per cent of the employed; Africa 85.8 per cent). International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 18UN-Habitat (ed.), Housing topic page (3 billion people to need adequate housing by 2030; 96,000 units a day; 100 million homeless; one in four in harmful housing). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 22WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet (page dated 20 July 2026; about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92 per cent in low- and middle-income countries; the page states no data year). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO (ed.), Decade of Healthy Ageing 2021 to 2030, cited from memory; no figure used. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bettencourt, L.M.A. et al., Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lutz, W., Goujon, A., KC, S., Stonawski, M. and Stilianakis, N. (eds.), Demographic and Human Capital Scenarios for the 21st Century, Publications Office of the European Union, 2018, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: McGranahan, G., Balk, D. and Anderson, B., The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones, Environment and Urbanization 19, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SR11-HEAT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a multi-day heatwave in a dense district with many older residents, informal housing and a partial power loss

Analogues

Europe summer 2022 heat deaths; ageing-related heat mortality trend²¹¹⁶

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → HLT

   heat raises illness and death among older residents

   2022

2. 2

   ENE → HLT

   cooling demand rises and a power loss removes cooling and refrigeration

   2022

3. 3

   HLT → FIN

   hospital and care costs rise while work hours are lost to heat

   2024

4. 4

   DEV → HLT

   informal housing holds heat and limits access to cooling

   2022

5. 5

   WAT → HLT

   water supply falls or runs on reserves

   2022

6. 6

   FIN → INF

   local budgets absorb losses and defer upgrades

   2024

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SR11-HEAT-01 would travel through Cities, Demography and Human Systems‘s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Cities, Demography and Human Systems 2026, scenario SCN-SR11-HEAT-01 (2026); Cities, Demography and Human Systems 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 21WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 16WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for human systems. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 human systems readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• ADOPTED
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
• IN FORCE
• ENDORSED

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers human systems assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about the world’s cities, demography and human systems and its couplings?

Sources searched

UN population and urban series; national statistics offices; peer-reviewed demography and urban science; health and displacement reports

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 5United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 23United Nations, New Urban Agenda (adopted at Habitat III in Quito on 20 October 2016; endorsed by the General Assembly on 23 December 2016; Habitat III page read). United Nations, Quito and New York. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6UN DESA (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 11, facts and figures (latest data 2026: about 1.16 billion in slums, informal settlements or inadequate housing; 24.8 per cent of urban residents in slums in 2022; 53.6 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37120:2018, Sustainable cities and communities, indicators for city services and quality of life, with the related ISO 37122 and 37123, cited from memory; the ISO page returned an access error. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD and European Commission (eds.), Cities in the World: A New Perspective on Urbanisation, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2020, with the Degree of Urbanisation method endorsed by the UN Statistical Commission in 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention relating to the Status of Refugees, 1951, and its 1967 Protocol, cited from memory. United Nations, Geneva. Observation year 1951. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: African Union, Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa (Kampala Convention), 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO (ed.), Decade of Healthy Ageing 2021 to 2030, cited from memory; no figure used. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 2UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 1UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 21WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Seto, K.C., Güneralp, B. and Hutyra, L.R., Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109, 2012, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bettencourt, L.M.A. et al., Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lutz, W., Goujon, A., KC, S., Stonawski, M. and Stilianakis, N. (eds.), Demographic and Human Capital Scenarios for the 21st Century, Publications Office of the European Union, 2018, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: McGranahan, G., Balk, D. and Anderson, B., The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones, Environment and Urbanization 19, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Tuholske, C. et al., Global urban population exposure to extreme heat, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118(41), 2021, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, chapter 6, Cities, settlements and key infrastructure, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 7UNFPA (ed.), State of World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis (survey of 14 countries; 39 per cent cite financial limitations; nearly 20 per cent expect to have fewer children than they want). United Nations Population Fund, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IOM (ed.), World Migration Report 2024. International Organization for Migration, Geneva, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: GBD 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators, Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950 to 2021, with forecasts to 2100, The Lancet 403, 2057 to 2099, 2024 (global rate 2.23 in 2021, about 1.83 in 2050 and about 1.59 in 2100), taken from search-result summaries; the journal page returned an access error. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 10World Bank (ed.), Urban Development overview (page: more than four billion people in cities; nearly 7 in 10 by 2050; about one quarter of urban residents in slums). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 9ILO (ed.), Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture, third edition (news release of 30 April 2018; about 2 billion workers, more than 61 per cent of the employed; Africa 85.8 per cent). International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 18UN-Habitat (ed.), Housing topic page (3 billion people to need adequate housing by 2030; 96,000 units a day; 100 million homeless; one in four in harmful housing). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 15IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (report page: sub-Saharan Africa a record 38.8 million internally displaced, around 46 per cent of the global total; the global counter showed no value). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 14UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends Report 2024 (publication record, 16 June 2025; states a new record by the end of 2024; no totals on the page read). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Clement, V. et al., Groundswell Part II: Acting on Internal Climate Migration, World Bank, 2021 (up to 216 million internal climate migrants by 2050), taken from search-result summaries; the World Bank pages returned not found. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 11National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 12Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 13Statistics Korea (ed.), first quarter 2025 births (total fertility rate 0.82 against 0.77 a year earlier; 65,022 births), read in a news report of 28 May 2025; the agency release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 20Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition (EU population 451 million on 1 January 2025; about 3.6 million births in 2024; fertility 1.34; 22 per cent aged 65 and over). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 16WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 17WHO (ed.), Ambient (outdoor) air quality and health, fact sheet (99 per cent of people above guideline levels; 4.2 million deaths; 2019 data). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Statistics Korea (ed.), 2024 and 2025 birth statistics (total fertility rate 0.75 in 2024 and 0.80 in 2025, preliminary), taken from search-result summaries of news reports. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. H-01

   How would a heatwave that meets an ageing, informally housed district and a power loss spread through health, work and finance at the same time?

   INI-SR11-HEAT-01 · heat, age and housing compound; first output: exposure analysis for six regions.

2. H-02

   Which cities and towns combine fast growth with thin services, and where are they?

   INI-SR11-GRW-02 · growth and service gap; first output: city and town register.

3. H-03

   How do shrinking and ageing places keep up services with a falling tax base?

   INI-SR11-SHR-03 · shrinking places; first output: service-cost table.

4. H-04

   How much housing is informal, how fast is it changing and where is it most exposed to hazards?

   INI-SR11-HOU-04 · housing and exposure; first output: housing exposure overlay.

5. H-05

   How do fertility, housing cost and work interact in low-fertility countries?

   INI-SR11-FER-05 · fertility and household formation; first output: comparison note.

6. H-06

   Which governments publish city-level demographic data on a comparable basis?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: coverage note.

7. H-07

   How do displacement and migration change the size and age of receiving cities?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. H-08

   Which human-system capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?

   Human systems capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 human systems portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The human systems edition reads national demographic and city chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National demographic and city chapters

   population and urban reading in each national edition

   IN PREPARATION · national baselines

2. 02

   Sector editions

   cities, health, development, finance

   PLANNED · sector Baseline Editions

3. 03

   Human systems model

   the global system of people and places

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Strategic links

   SR-02 lifelines · SR-07 food, water and energy · SR-08 health security

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   Human Systems Report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the human systems candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-SR11-2027-01 · Heat, age and housing Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 11National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 12Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 21WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 16WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Common causes

One cause can change many human systems at once: falling fertility, longer lives, migration, urban growth or heat. The shared cause matters more than the sector.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-07 Food–Water–Energy Security
• SR-08 Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity
• GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian

8.2Domino effects

A change in one human system loads the next. Fewer births reach schools, then the workforce, then care and public finance.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-07 Food–Water–Energy Security
• SR-08 Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity
• GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian

8.3Inter-systemic feedbacks

Human systems feed back on what they depend on. Cities draw people and food, rural areas lose young people, and heat pushes up the demand that strains the grid.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-07 Food–Water–Energy Security
• SR-08 Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity
• GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian

8.4Shared vulnerabilities

Different human systems share the same weak points: informal housing, heat exposure, flood-prone land and thin city finance.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-07 Food–Water–Energy Security
• SR-08 Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity
• GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian

8.5Thresholds and tipping

A human system can absorb stress until a threshold is crossed. Replacement fertility, service capacity and household cooling access are such thresholds.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-07 Food–Water–Energy Security
• SR-08 Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity
• GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 16WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 21WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 11National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 12Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 8UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 5United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 10World Bank (ed.), Urban Development overview (page: more than four billion people in cities; nearly 7 in 10 by 2050; about one quarter of urban residents in slums). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 9ILO (ed.), Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture, third edition (news release of 30 April 2018; about 2 billion workers, more than 61 per cent of the employed; Africa 85.8 per cent). International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 22WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet (page dated 20 July 2026; about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92 per cent in low- and middle-income countries; the page states no data year). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Human Systems Model v0

Model ID

MDL-SR11-HUMANSYSTEMS · v0.1

Purpose

represent human systems as people and places that change together and the mechanisms by which change spreads between housing, health, work, water, energy and public finance

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

42 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 human systems annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• UN DESA¹: country profiles and uncertainty intervals
• UN DESA²: methodological report and the Dhaka figure
• SDG database⁵: slum series by region and year
• IDMC¹⁵: global totals and country detail

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: harmonised city

Construct

a contiguous settlement classed as a city under the Degree of Urbanization method

Unit

people and number of cities

Method

grid-based population and built-up data classified into cities, towns and rural areas

Source

UN DESA World Urbanization Prospects 2025²

Uncertainty

modelled estimates; differ from national urban definitions

Known limits

minimum city size is 50,000 inhabitants; national definitions give a different share

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends Report 2024, June 2025 (123.2 million forcibly displaced at the end of 2024; 73.5 million internally displaced; 42.7 million refugees), taken from search-result summaries; the report page returned an access error. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (83.4 million internally displaced at the end of 2024; 45.8 million new displacements by disasters in 2024), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: GBD 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators, Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950 to 2021, with forecasts to 2100, The Lancet 403, 2057 to 2099, 2024 (global rate 2.23 in 2021, about 1.83 in 2050 and about 1.59 in 2100), taken from search-result summaries; the journal page returned an access error. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Clement, V. et al., Groundswell Part II: Acting on Internal Climate Migration, World Bank, 2021 (up to 216 million internal climate migrants by 2050), taken from search-result summaries; the World Bank pages returned not found. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Statistics Korea (ed.), 2024 and 2025 birth statistics (total fertility rate 0.75 in 2024 and 0.80 in 2025, preliminary), taken from search-result summaries of news reports. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 22WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet (page dated 20 July 2026; about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92 per cent in low- and middle-income countries; the page states no data year). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 6UN DESA (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 11, facts and figures (latest data 2026: about 1.16 billion in slums, informal settlements or inadequate housing; 24.8 per cent of urban residents in slums in 2022; 53.6 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 5United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 2UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 3UN DESA (ed.), press release on World Urbanization Prospects 2025, 18 November 2025 (cities hold 45 per cent of the world population; Dhaka given as almost 40 million). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 4WHO (ed.), Ageing and health, fact sheet (60 and over: 1.4 billion in 2030 and 2.1 billion in 2050; 80 and over 426 million in 2050; baseline 1 billion in 2020; page also gives two thirds and 80 per cent for the share in low- and middle-income countries). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 1UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 15IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (report page: sub-Saharan Africa a record 38.8 million internally displaced, around 46 per cent of the global total; the global counter showed no value). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• DEM
• INF
• DEV
• HLT
• CLI
• FIN
• MIG
• DAT
• BIO
• TRD

B.3Regional reading, ten regional clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

B.4Regional card: Sub-Saharan Africa

• region
• urban growth
• informal housing
• displacement

Systems in view

housing, health, water, shelter and public finance

Defining facts

slum share of urban residents 53.6 per cent in 2022⁶; 38.8 million internally displaced at end 2024¹⁵

Couplings

URB → DEV; MIG → URB

Capability evidence

national urban policies and a regional convention on displaced people²³⁴⁰

Gaps

city-level service data; movement into cities

Agenda items

H-02 · H-04

B.5How countries appear in the global edition

Countries enter the human systems edition through the demographic and city chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 5United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 9ILO (ed.), Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture, third edition (news release of 30 April 2018; about 2 billion workers, more than 61 per cent of the employed; Africa 85.8 per cent). International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 11National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 12Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 20Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition (EU population 451 million on 1 January 2025; about 3.6 million births in 2024; fertility 1.34; 22 per cent aged 65 and over). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 16WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 17WHO (ed.), Ambient (outdoor) air quality and health, fact sheet (99 per cent of people above guideline levels; 4.2 million deaths; 2019 data). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 7UNFPA (ed.), State of World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis (survey of 14 countries; 39 per cent cite financial limitations; nearly 20 per cent expect to have fewer children than they want). United Nations Population Fund, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 8UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 15IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (report page: sub-Saharan Africa a record 38.8 million internally displaced, around 46 per cent of the global total; the global counter showed no value). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 6UN DESA (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 11, facts and figures (latest data 2026: about 1.16 billion in slums, informal settlements or inadequate housing; 24.8 per cent of urban residents in slums in 2022; 53.6 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 13Statistics Korea (ed.), first quarter 2025 births (total fertility rate 0.82 against 0.77 a year earlier; 65,022 births), read in a news report of 28 May 2025; the agency release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 23United Nations, New Urban Agenda (adopted at Habitat III in Quito on 20 October 2016; endorsed by the General Assembly on 23 December 2016; Habitat III page read). United Nations, Quito and New York. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: African Union, Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa (Kampala Convention), 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.142 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
3. 3UN DESA (ed.), press release on World Urbanization Prospects 2025, 18 November 2025 (cities hold 45 per cent of the world population; Dhaka given as almost 40 million). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
4. 4WHO (ed.), Ageing and health, fact sheet (60 and over: 1.4 billion in 2030 and 2.1 billion in 2050; 80 and over 426 million in 2050; baseline 1 billion in 2020; page also gives two thirds and 80 per cent for the share in low- and middle-income countries). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.
5. 5United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
6. 6UN DESA (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 11, facts and figures (latest data 2026: about 1.16 billion in slums, informal settlements or inadequate housing; 24.8 per cent of urban residents in slums in 2022; 53.6 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
7. 7UNFPA (ed.), State of World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis (survey of 14 countries; 39 per cent cite financial limitations; nearly 20 per cent expect to have fewer children than they want). United Nations Population Fund, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
8. 8UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
9. 9ILO (ed.), Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture, third edition (news release of 30 April 2018; about 2 billion workers, more than 61 per cent of the employed; Africa 85.8 per cent). International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
10. 10World Bank (ed.), Urban Development overview (page: more than four billion people in cities; nearly 7 in 10 by 2050; about one quarter of urban residents in slums). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
12. 12Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
13. 13Statistics Korea (ed.), first quarter 2025 births (total fertility rate 0.82 against 0.77 a year earlier; 65,022 births), read in a news report of 28 May 2025; the agency release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
14. 14UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends Report 2024 (publication record, 16 June 2025; states a new record by the end of 2024; no totals on the page read). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
15. 15IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (report page: sub-Saharan Africa a record 38.8 million internally displaced, around 46 per cent of the global total; the global counter showed no value). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
16. 16WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
17. 17WHO (ed.), Ambient (outdoor) air quality and health, fact sheet (99 per cent of people above guideline levels; 4.2 million deaths; 2019 data). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
18. 18UN-Habitat (ed.), Housing topic page (3 billion people to need adequate housing by 2030; 96,000 units a day; 100 million homeless; one in four in harmful housing). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
19. 19UN DESA (ed.), International Migrant Stock 2024 (dataset page; 233 countries and areas; 1990 to 2024; totals not on the page read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
20. 20Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition (EU population 451 million on 1 January 2025; about 3.6 million births in 2024; fertility 1.34; 22 per cent aged 65 and over). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
21. 21WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
22. 22WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet (page dated 20 July 2026; about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92 per cent in low- and middle-income countries; the page states no data year). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
23. 23United Nations, New Urban Agenda (adopted at Habitat III in Quito on 20 October 2016; endorsed by the General Assembly on 23 December 2016; Habitat III page read). United Nations, Quito and New York. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
24. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: GBD 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators, Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950 to 2021, with forecasts to 2100, The Lancet 403, 2057 to 2099, 2024 (global rate 2.23 in 2021, about 1.83 in 2050 and about 1.59 in 2100), taken from search-result summaries; the journal page returned an access error. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends Report 2024, June 2025 (123.2 million forcibly displaced at the end of 2024; 73.5 million internally displaced; 42.7 million refugees), taken from search-result summaries; the report page returned an access error. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (83.4 million internally displaced at the end of 2024; 45.8 million new displacements by disasters in 2024), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Clement, V. et al., Groundswell Part II: Acting on Internal Climate Migration, World Bank, 2021 (up to 216 million internal climate migrants by 2050), taken from search-result summaries; the World Bank pages returned not found. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Statistics Korea (ed.), 2024 and 2025 birth statistics (total fertility rate 0.75 in 2024 and 0.80 in 2025, preliminary), taken from search-result summaries of news reports. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IOM (ed.), World Migration Report 2024. International Organization for Migration, Geneva, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, chapter 6, Cities, settlements and key infrastructure, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Tuholske, C. et al., Global urban population exposure to extreme heat, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118(41), 2021, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Seto, K.C., Güneralp, B. and Hutyra, L.R., Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109, 2012, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bettencourt, L.M.A. et al., Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lutz, W., Goujon, A., KC, S., Stonawski, M. and Stilianakis, N. (eds.), Demographic and Human Capital Scenarios for the 21st Century, Publications Office of the European Union, 2018, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: McGranahan, G., Balk, D. and Anderson, B., The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones, Environment and Urbanization 19, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37120:2018, Sustainable cities and communities, indicators for city services and quality of life, with the related ISO 37122 and 37123, cited from memory; the ISO page returned an access error. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention relating to the Status of Refugees, 1951, and its 1967 Protocol, cited from memory. United Nations, Geneva. Observation year 1951. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: African Union, Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa (Kampala Convention), 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO (ed.), Decade of Healthy Ageing 2021 to 2030, cited from memory; no figure used. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD and European Commission (eds.), Cities in the World: A New Perspective on Urbanisation, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2020, with the Degree of Urbanisation method endorsed by the UN Statistical Commission in 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version