Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four global risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.

6 min read0 figures1 table19 notesNR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1People and places change together
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5A heatwave that meets an ageing, dense and informally housed district
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR11-CLI-001

    Heat on an ageing and dense population

    Driver
    rising heat exposure and an ageing population2116
    Exposure
    older residents, informal districts, hospitals
    Vulnerability
    low-quality housing, limited cooling, social isolation21
    Capacity
    heat action plans; cooling access; community checks
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT, ENE
    Horizon
    1 to 3 years

  2. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR11-DEV-002

    Informal growth without services

    Driver
    city growth of 986 million by 20502
    Exposure
    slums and informal settlements5
    Vulnerability
    housing, water and transport gaps; flood exposure5
    Capacity
    upgrading; land and service planning23
    Cascade
    DEV → HLT → FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-SR11-DEM-003

    Shrinking and ageing places with fixed costs

    Driver
    births below deaths in China and Japan1112
    Exposure
    small cities and towns that lost population2
    Vulnerability
    fixed network costs on a falling base
    Capacity
    service consolidation; migration; productivity
    Cascade
    DEM → FIN → HLT
    Horizon
    5 to 10 years

  4. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR11-FIN-004

    City finance gap for adaptation

    Driver
    under 20 per cent of climate finance need met8
    Exposure
    cities in hazard-prone regions
    Vulnerability
    weak own-source revenue; adaptation financed less than mitigation8
    Capacity
    municipal finance reform; national transfers23
    Cascade
    FIN → INF → HLT
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSurban and population goals set in global agreements623
Monitoring and observationADEQUATEnational censuses and UN series; city-level data uneven12
Early warningLISTEDheat warnings exist in places; no common global practice bound here
Preparedness and planningEXISTSnational urban policies and the Sendai framework2337
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDspare health and cooling capacity not consolidated
ResponseEXISTSheat and flood response in many cities; testing uneven21
Continuity of critical servicesEXISTSpriority supply to hospitals and care homes in many systems; testing uneven
RecoveryLISTEDrecovery after heat and displacement not consolidated here
AdaptationEXISTSadaptation plans exist but receive less finance than mitigation8
Social protectionLISTEDsupport for older people and informal workers not consolidated9
Finance and insuranceLISTEDunder 20 per cent of need met8
Institutional coordinationEXISTSnational, local and UN frameworks; cross-border practice uneven2338
Technical infrastructureEXISTSgaps in housing and transport1822
WorkforceLISTEDcare and planning workforce not consolidated41
Research capacityADEQUATEdemography and urban science mature333435
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 21WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 16WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 5United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 23United Nations, New Urban Agenda (adopted at Habitat III in Quito on 20 October 2016; endorsed by the General Assembly on 23 December 2016; Habitat III page read). United Nations, Quito and New York. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 11National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 12Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 8UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 6UN DESA (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 11, facts and figures (latest data 2026: about 1.16 billion in slums, informal settlements or inadequate housing; 24.8 per cent of urban residents in slums in 2022; 53.6 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 1UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 9ILO (ed.), Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture, third edition (news release of 30 April 2018; about 2 billion workers, more than 61 per cent of the employed; Africa 85.8 per cent). International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 18UN-Habitat (ed.), Housing topic page (3 billion people to need adequate housing by 2030; 96,000 units a day; 100 million homeless; one in four in harmful housing). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 22WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet (page dated 20 July 2026; about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92 per cent in low- and middle-income countries; the page states no data year). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO (ed.), Decade of Healthy Ageing 2021 to 2030, cited from memory; no figure used. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bettencourt, L.M.A. et al., Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lutz, W., Goujon, A., KC, S., Stonawski, M. and Stilianakis, N. (eds.), Demographic and Human Capital Scenarios for the 21st Century, Publications Office of the European Union, 2018, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: McGranahan, G., Balk, D. and Anderson, B., The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones, Environment and Urbanization 19, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Cities, Demography and Human Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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