Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables13 notesNR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1People and places change together
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A heatwave that meets an ageing, dense and informally housed district
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

DEM · Population

World population, 2024

8.2billion

peak of 10.3 billion projected in the mid-2080s.

Reported2024UN DESA1

INF · Urban

Share of world population in cities

45per cent

36 per cent in towns, 19 per cent rural.

Reported2025UN DESA2

DEV · Housing

People in slums or informal settlements

1.12billion

about one in four urban residents.

Reported2025SDG Report5

HLT · Ageing

People aged 65 and over, late 2070s

2.2billion

more than the number of children under 18.

Reported2024UN DESA1

CLI · Heat

Heat-related deaths, annual average

546,000a year

2012 to 2021; up 23 per cent since the 1990s.

Reported2024Lancet Countdown16

SYS · Displacement

Internally displaced in sub-Saharan Africa

38.8million

about 46 per cent of the global total.

Reported2024IDMC15

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through human systems, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries human systems risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATCities and towns depend on water services; no consolidated series bound here.WAT → HLTExpert input EQL 2
ENECooling and power demand rise with heat and urban growth; no series bound here.ENE → HLTExpert input EQL 2
FOOCities depend on food supply chains and rural areas feed them; rural population peaks in the 2040s2.FOO ↔ URBReported EQL 3
HLTOlder people face higher heat risk; heat-related mortality among over-65s rose about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 202121.HLT ↔ DEMReported EQL 3
BIOUrban green space fell from 19.5 per cent in 1990 to 13.9 per cent in 20205.BIO → CLIReported EQL 3
CLIAbout 546,000 heat deaths a year; one billion people live in areas prone to severe riverine flooding, half of them in cities165.CLI → HLTReported EQL 3
INFThe core system: 45 per cent of people in cities, built-up area per person up from 43 to 63 square metres in 50 years2.the core systemReported EQL 4
FINCities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance needed for climate action8.FIN → INFReported EQL 3
DATNational definitions of urban differ; 58 per cent urban on national terms against 81 per cent in cities and towns2.DAT ↔ URBReported EQL 4
AICNo series bound here; the effect of automation on city work is not read in this edition.AIC → FINExpert input EQL 1
MINHousing and building materials depend on mineral and aggregate supply; no series bound here.MIN → INFExpert input EQL 1
TRDMigration and remittance flows link cities across borders; no series bound here.URB ↔ TRDInferred EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on human systems, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systempeople and places couple every sector12heat, housing and power togetherPARTIAL
GS-01Waterwater services follow settlement growth2growth without servicesTHIN
GS-02Energycooling and power demand rise in citiesheat and outage togetherTHIN
GS-03Food and agrifoodabout 60 per cent of land converted to urban use since 1970 was farmland2loss of farmlandPARTIAL
GS-04Healthheat deaths and ageing load on health systems1621heatwaves and care demandPARTIAL
GS-05Finance and economycities receive under 20 per cent of climate finance need8adaptation gapPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentslums and informal work concentrate in low-income regions59service and job gapsPARTIAL
GS-07Climateheat-related deaths about 546,000 a year16heat and flood exposureGOOD
GS-08Disasterone billion people in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities5concurrent hazardsPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructureroad traffic deaths about 1.16 million a year22unsafe streets and transit gapsPARTIAL
GS-10Cities45 per cent of people in cities; 986 million to add by 20502growth, shrinkage and informalityGOOD
GS-11Biodiversitygreen space share fell between 1990 and 20205loss of urban green spacePARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationsettlement and built-up area data underpin city counts42definition and resolution gapsPARTIAL
GS-13Cyber and digitalno series bound heredata and identity gapsTHIN
GS-14PolicyNew Urban Agenda adopted in 201623implementation gapsPARTIAL
GS-15Scienceurban scaling and demography science is mature3334data below national scalePARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 5United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 16WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 15IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (report page: sub-Saharan Africa a record 38.8 million internally displaced, around 46 per cent of the global total; the global counter showed no value). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 21WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 8UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 9ILO (ed.), Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture, third edition (news release of 30 April 2018; about 2 billion workers, more than 61 per cent of the employed; Africa 85.8 per cent). International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 22WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet (page dated 20 July 2026; about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92 per cent in low- and middle-income countries; the page states no data year). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD and European Commission (eds.), Cities in the World: A New Perspective on Urbanisation, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2020, with the Degree of Urbanisation method endorsed by the UN Statistical Commission in 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 23United Nations, New Urban Agenda (adopted at Habitat III in Quito on 20 October 2016; endorsed by the General Assembly on 23 December 2016; Habitat III page read). United Nations, Quito and New York. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bettencourt, L.M.A. et al., Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lutz, W., Goujon, A., KC, S., Stonawski, M. and Stilianakis, N. (eds.), Demographic and Human Capital Scenarios for the 21st Century, Publications Office of the European Union, 2018, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Cities, Demography and Human Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Cities, Demography and Human Systems.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskStrategic Systems

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices