Readings from the other desks
The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1People and places change together
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5A heatwave that meets an ageing, dense and informally housed district
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 human systems readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Standards Progress | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Academy Capability | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Index Measurement | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading people and places as one moving system. Common causes recur across regions, pressures spread through shared housing, health and finance, and thresholds such as heat limits and service capacity decide outcomes. Evidence is strongest at national scale and weakest within cities.
DEM-001 · URB-003 · CLI-009 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people these changes arrive as a hot flat, a long wait for care, a rent that rises or a school that closes. The baseline asks that public debate treat population change as an ordinary planning fact and keep older people and informal residents in view.
DEM-002 · HOU-005 · AGE-006
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Cities receive less than a fifth of the finance they need for climate action, and informal housing is large85. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
HOU-005 · FIN-011
NEXUS
Synthesis
Human-system risk is well described country by country and thinly measured within cities. The 2027 programme should bind neighbourhood data, test the heat, age and housing compound, and map service thresholds before the next large event.
SYS-012 · H-01 · H-04
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for human systems. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability exist? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests show? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What changed in the year, and what renews? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Reports strategic desks | human systems chapter inputs: GCRI evidence and GRA readiness | strategic editorial board |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Fertility, ageing, migration and urban growth change the same households and neighbourhoods. Treating demography and cities apart understates how a change in one becomes a change in all. This edition reads the system.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
People and places are one system
Under national definitions 58 per cent of people are urban. Under one harmonised method 81 per cent live in cities and towns. The measure shapes policy, so the baseline reports both.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Counting decides what is seen
Some countries and thousands of cities are losing people while others add hundreds of millions. Planning for one pattern alone fails the other.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Shrinking is as real as growing
Heat deaths among people over 65 rose by about 85 per cent over two decades. Ageing and warming interact in dense cities, and the interaction is thinly measured.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Heat meets age
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 human systems readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Global risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five global system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | national chapters in preparation | national chapters |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- ADOPTED
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
- IN FORCE
- ENDORSED
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Urban Agenda23 | UN Habitat III | global | ADOPTED 2016 | sustainable urban development |
| Sustainable Development Goal 116 | United Nations | global | ADOPTED | cities and human settlements |
| Sendai Framework 2015 to 203037 | UNDRR | global | ADOPTED 2015 | disaster risk in cities |
| ISO 37120 city indicators36 | ISO | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | city services and quality of life |
| Degree of Urbanisation method42 | UN Statistical Commission | global | ENDORSED 2020 | harmonised city and town definitions |
| Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration38 | United Nations | global | ADOPTED 2018 | migration |
| Convention relating to the Status of Refugees39 | United Nations | global | IN FORCE | refugee protection |
| Kampala Convention40 | African Union | Africa | IN FORCE | internally displaced people |
| Decade of Healthy Ageing 2021 to 203041 | WHO | global | ADOPTED 2020 | healthy ageing |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers human systems assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about the world’s cities, demography and human systems and its couplings?
- Sources searched
- UN population and urban series; national statistics offices; peer-reviewed demography and urban science; health and displacement reports
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seto, Güneralp and Hutyra32 | journal article | 2012 | supports | urban land expansion |
| Bettencourt et al.33 | journal article | 2007 | framework | urban scaling |
| Lutz et al.34 | book | 2018 | framework | population scenarios |
| McGranahan, Balk and Anderson35 | journal article | 2007 | supports | coastal exposure |
| Tuholske et al.31 | journal article | 2021 | supports | urban heat exposure |
| IPCC Working Group II, chapter 630 | assessment | 2022 | framework | cities and settlements |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Population Prospects 20241 | UN DESA | 2024 | supports | population and fertility |
| World Urbanization Prospects 20252 | UN DESA | 2025 | supports | cities, towns, rural |
| World Cities Report 20248 | UN-Habitat | 2024 | supports | city climate finance |
| State of World Population 20257 | UNFPA | 2025 | supports | fertility aspirations |
| World Migration Report 202429 | IOM | 2024 | context | migration |
| Global Fertility 2021 to 210024 | GBD Fertility Collaborators | 2024 | context | fertility forecast |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDG Report 2025, Goal 115 | UN | 2025 | supports | slums, green space, floods |
| Goal 11 facts and figures6 | UN DESA | 2026 | supports | slums, housing cost |
| Urban development overview10 | World Bank | 2025 | context | urban economy |
| Informal economy report9 | ILO | 2018 | supports | informal work |
| Housing topic page18 | UN-Habitat | 2025 | supports | housing need |
| Global Report on Internal Displacement 202515 | IDMC | 2025 | supports | displacement |
| Global Trends 202414 | UNHCR | 2025 | context | forced displacement |
| Groundswell27 | World Bank | 2021 | context | internal climate migration |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statistical communique on 202511 | National Bureau of Statistics of China | 2026 | supports | births and deaths |
| Vital statistics 202412 | Japan health ministry | 2025 | supports | births and fertility |
| Quarterly births13 | Statistics Korea | 2025 | context | fertility |
| Demography of Europe20 | Eurostat | 2026 | supports | EU population |
| Lancet Countdown 202516 | Lancet Countdown and WHO | 2025 | supports | heat mortality |
| Heat and health fact sheet21 | WHO | 2026 | supports | heat deaths |
| Ambient air quality fact sheet17 | WHO | 2024 | supports | air pollution deaths |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 8UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23United Nations, New Urban Agenda (adopted at Habitat III in Quito on 20 October 2016; endorsed by the General Assembly on 23 December 2016; Habitat III page read). United Nations, Quito and New York. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6UN DESA (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 11, facts and figures (latest data 2026: about 1.16 billion in slums, informal settlements or inadequate housing; 24.8 per cent of urban residents in slums in 2022; 53.6 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37120:2018, Sustainable cities and communities, indicators for city services and quality of life, with the related ISO 37122 and 37123, cited from memory; the ISO page returned an access error. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD and European Commission (eds.), Cities in the World: A New Perspective on Urbanisation, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2020, with the Degree of Urbanisation method endorsed by the UN Statistical Commission in 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention relating to the Status of Refugees, 1951, and its 1967 Protocol, cited from memory. United Nations, Geneva. Observation year 1951. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: African Union, Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa (Kampala Convention), 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO (ed.), Decade of Healthy Ageing 2021 to 2030, cited from memory; no figure used. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Seto, K.C., Güneralp, B. and Hutyra, L.R., Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109, 2012, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bettencourt, L.M.A. et al., Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lutz, W., Goujon, A., KC, S., Stonawski, M. and Stilianakis, N. (eds.), Demographic and Human Capital Scenarios for the 21st Century, Publications Office of the European Union, 2018, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: McGranahan, G., Balk, D. and Anderson, B., The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones, Environment and Urbanization 19, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Tuholske, C. et al., Global urban population exposure to extreme heat, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118(41), 2021, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, chapter 6, Cities, settlements and key infrastructure, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7UNFPA (ed.), State of World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis (survey of 14 countries; 39 per cent cite financial limitations; nearly 20 per cent expect to have fewer children than they want). United Nations Population Fund, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IOM (ed.), World Migration Report 2024. International Organization for Migration, Geneva, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: GBD 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators, Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950 to 2021, with forecasts to 2100, The Lancet 403, 2057 to 2099, 2024 (global rate 2.23 in 2021, about 1.83 in 2050 and about 1.59 in 2100), taken from search-result summaries; the journal page returned an access error. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10World Bank (ed.), Urban Development overview (page: more than four billion people in cities; nearly 7 in 10 by 2050; about one quarter of urban residents in slums). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9ILO (ed.), Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture, third edition (news release of 30 April 2018; about 2 billion workers, more than 61 per cent of the employed; Africa 85.8 per cent). International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18UN-Habitat (ed.), Housing topic page (3 billion people to need adequate housing by 2030; 96,000 units a day; 100 million homeless; one in four in harmful housing). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (report page: sub-Saharan Africa a record 38.8 million internally displaced, around 46 per cent of the global total; the global counter showed no value). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends Report 2024 (publication record, 16 June 2025; states a new record by the end of 2024; no totals on the page read). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Clement, V. et al., Groundswell Part II: Acting on Internal Climate Migration, World Bank, 2021 (up to 216 million internal climate migrants by 2050), taken from search-result summaries; the World Bank pages returned not found. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13Statistics Korea (ed.), first quarter 2025 births (total fertility rate 0.82 against 0.77 a year earlier; 65,022 births), read in a news report of 28 May 2025; the agency release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition (EU population 451 million on 1 January 2025; about 3.6 million births in 2024; fertility 1.34; 22 per cent aged 65 and over). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17WHO (ed.), Ambient (outdoor) air quality and health, fact sheet (99 per cent of people above guideline levels; 4.2 million deaths; 2019 data). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Statistics Korea (ed.), 2024 and 2025 birth statistics (total fertility rate 0.75 in 2024 and 0.80 in 2025, preliminary), taken from search-result summaries of news reports. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back