Exponential Technology Report 2026: Quantum Technologies

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the quantum baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. Below threshold on one platform at small code distances.²

   Is error correction working?Reported

2. A 2025 estimate: under a million noisy qubits in under a week, under stated assumptions.¹

   How many qubits would break RSA-2048?Reported

3. Three NIST standards were finalised in August 2024.³

   Are post-quantum standards ready?Reported

4. National roadmaps by the end of 2026; milestones to 2035.⁶¹⁵

   What does Europe ask?Reported

5. USD 12.6 billion of startup investment in 2025.¹¹

   What does the money look like?Reported

6. Not published for useful-scale machines; a 2023 estimate favours classical methods for some problems.⁹

   What is the energy footprint?Reported

7. Helium markets were disrupted in 2026; helium-3 is scarce.¹⁰¹³

   Is the supply base exposed?Reported

8. Long-lived data exposed to later decryption while migration is slow. SCN-XT02-HND-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CRY-005

NIST finalised three post-quantum cryptography standards on 13 August 2024: FIPS 203 (ML-KEM), FIPS 204 (ML-DSA) and FIPS 205 (SLH-DSA).

Standards exist, so migration is now an engineering and planning task. NIST urged administrators to start integrating them immediately and said there was no need to wait for further standards. A fourth draft standard, FIPS 206 (FN-DSA), was planned³. The transition report NIST IR 8547 is an initial public draft at the evidence close⁴.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2Google Quantum AI and collaborators, Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold, Nature 638, 920 to 926, 2025 (preprint arXiv:2408.13687, August 2024). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 8IBM (ed.), IBM Quantum technology and roadmap page (Nighthawk 120 qubits; Starling planned for 2029 with 200 logical qubits and 100 million gates; statement on advantage in 2026). IBM, Armonk. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1Gidney, C., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits, arXiv:2505.15917, submitted 21 May 2025. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 3NIST (ed.), NIST releases first 3 finalised post-quantum encryption standards (news release, 13 August 2024; FIPS 203, 204, 205). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 6European Commission (ed.), Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (library page; roadmap published 23 June 2025; page updated 3 September 2026; the roadmap milestones were not on the page). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: McKinsey and Company (ed.), Quantum Technology Monitor 2026 (startup investment USD 12.6 billion in 2025, 6.3 times 2024; company revenues above USD 1 billion; about 97% private funding), taken from search-result summaries; the chart page returned a service error. McKinsey and Company, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 10IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 15UNVERIFIED, not opened: NIS Cooperation Group PQC workstream (eds.), A Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (milestones: roadmaps by the end of 2026, high-risk use cases by 2030, as many systems as feasible by 2035), taken from secondary summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 9Jaschke, D. and Montangero, S., Is quantum computing green? An estimate for an energy-efficiency quantum advantage, Quantum Science and Technology 8, 025001, 2023 (preprint arXiv:2205.12092). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 13UNVERIFIED, not opened: War on the Rocks (ed.), The supply chain chokepoints in quantum (October 2025), and CNAS (ed.), report on helium-3 recovery and reserves (March 2026), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 4NIST (ed.), Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards, NIST IR 8547, initial public draft (publication page; published 12 November 2024; comment period closed 10 January 2025). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is quantum risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry quantum shocks into other systems?
• Which quantum capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five footprint and governance chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The quantum-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their quantum content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   TRD → MIN → INF

   A helium or mineral supply disruption slows cryogenic hardware.

   Reported 2026 Hormuz closure and helium¹⁰

2. 02

   INF → DAT

   A capable machine would expose data protected by today’s public-key methods.

   Inferred RSA-2048 estimates¹

3. 03

   FIN → INF

   Investment funds hardware scale-up and fabrication.

   Reported USD 12.6 billion in 2025¹¹

4. 04

   ENE → INF

   Facility power and cooling constrain siting and scale.

   Inferred energy estimate⁹

5. 05

   GOV → DAT

   Standards and roadmaps set migration timing.

   Reported NIST and EU³⁶

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8IBM (ed.), IBM Quantum technology and roadmap page (Nighthawk 120 qubits; Starling planned for 2029 with 200 logical qubits and 100 million gates; statement on advantage in 2026). IBM, Armonk. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 10IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3NIST (ed.), NIST releases first 3 finalised post-quantum encryption standards (news release, 13 August 2024; FIPS 203, 204, 205). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 2Google Quantum AI and collaborators, Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold, Nature 638, 920 to 926, 2025 (preprint arXiv:2408.13687, August 2024). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 1Gidney, C., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits, arXiv:2505.15917, submitted 21 May 2025. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 15UNVERIFIED, not opened: NIS Cooperation Group PQC workstream (eds.), A Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (milestones: roadmaps by the end of 2026, high-risk use cases by 2030, as many systems as feasible by 2035), taken from secondary summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 9Jaschke, D. and Montangero, S., Is quantum computing green? An estimate for an energy-efficiency quantum advantage, Quantum Science and Technology 8, 025001, 2023 (preprint arXiv:2205.12092). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gidney, C. and Ekerå, M., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers in 8 hours using 20 million noisy qubits, Quantum 5, 433, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: McKinsey and Company (ed.), Quantum Technology Monitor 2026 (startup investment USD 12.6 billion in 2025, 6.3 times 2024; company revenues above USD 1 billion; about 97% private funding), taken from search-result summaries; the chart page returned a service error. McKinsey and Company, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 6European Commission (ed.), Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (library page; roadmap published 23 June 2025; page updated 3 September 2026; the roadmap milestones were not on the page). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CRY-005

NIST finalised three post-quantum cryptography standards on 13 August 2024: FIPS 203 (ML-KEM), FIPS 204 (ML-DSA) and FIPS 205 (SLH-DSA).

Implication

Standards exist, so migration is now an engineering and planning task. NIST urged administrators to start integrating them immediately and said there was no need to wait for further standards. A fourth draft standard, FIPS 206 (FN-DSA), was planned³. The transition report NIST IR 8547 is an initial public draft at the evidence close⁴.

What would move it

The final transition report, sector migration progress and national directives would each move this finding.

2.2Infrastructure

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

   A distance-7 surface code on 101 qubits reached a logical error of 0.143% per cycle, and logical error fell by a factor of 2.14 for each step up in code distance.²

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

   IBM states a plan for a fault-tolerant machine with 200 logical qubits and 100 million gates in 2029; its current Nighthawk processor has 120 qubits.⁸

3. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-003

   Quantinuum launched its Helios system in November 2025 with 98 physical qubits and a two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.921%, in a company announcement.⁴²

2.3CRY

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CRY-004

   A 2025 preprint estimates that RSA-2048 could be factored with fewer than one million noisy qubits in under a week, assuming a 0.1% gate error and a 1 microsecond cycle.¹²⁷

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CRY-005

   NIST finalised FIPS 203, 204 and 205 on 13 August 2024 and urged administrators to begin integrating them immediately.³⁴

2.4Governance

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-006

   The European Commission published a coordinated implementation roadmap for post-quantum cryptography on 23 June 2025, with milestones reported at the end of 2026, 2030 and 2035.⁶¹⁵

2. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-007

   NSA guidance for national security systems sets a staged transition to quantum-resistant algorithms, with 2035 as the overall goal in secondary summaries.¹⁴

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-011

   The EU adopted its Quantum Europe Strategy in July 2025 and planned a Quantum Act for 2026, after a EUR 1 billion flagship launched in 2018.⁷

2.5Finance

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-008

   Quantum startups raised USD 12.6 billion in 2025, 6.3 times the 2024 level, and company revenues passed USD 1 billion.¹¹

2.6Energy

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-009

   A peer-reviewed estimate finds that for noisy hardware and moderately entangled problems, a classical tensor network can be more energy-efficient than quantum computation at equal fidelity.⁹

2.7Minerals

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-010

   The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 disrupted helium as well as aluminium and sulphur, and dilution refrigerators depend on helium-4 and helium-3.¹⁰¹³

2.8Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is exposure of long-lived data to later decryption, while migration is slow and hardware milestones move faster than planned. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3NIST (ed.), NIST releases first 3 finalised post-quantum encryption standards (news release, 13 August 2024; FIPS 203, 204, 205). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 4NIST (ed.), Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards, NIST IR 8547, initial public draft (publication page; published 12 November 2024; comment period closed 10 January 2025). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2Google Quantum AI and collaborators, Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold, Nature 638, 920 to 926, 2025 (preprint arXiv:2408.13687, August 2024). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 8IBM (ed.), IBM Quantum technology and roadmap page (Nighthawk 120 qubits; Starling planned for 2029 with 200 logical qubits and 100 million gates; statement on advantage in 2026). IBM, Armonk. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 42Quantinuum (ed.), Quantinuum announces commercial launch of Helios (press release, 5 November 2025; 98 qubits, 99.921% two-qubit and 99.9975% single-qubit gate fidelity; 94 error-detected and 48 error-corrected logical qubits; no logical gate fidelity stated). Quantinuum, Broomfield. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 1Gidney, C., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits, arXiv:2505.15917, submitted 21 May 2025. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gidney, C. and Ekerå, M., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers in 8 hours using 20 million noisy qubits, Quantum 5, 433, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 6European Commission (ed.), Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (library page; roadmap published 23 June 2025; page updated 3 September 2026; the roadmap milestones were not on the page). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 15UNVERIFIED, not opened: NIS Cooperation Group PQC workstream (eds.), A Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (milestones: roadmaps by the end of 2026, high-risk use cases by 2030, as many systems as feasible by 2035), taken from secondary summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 14UNVERIFIED, not opened: NSA (ed.), Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite 2.0 (CNSA 2.0) advisory and timetable, taken from secondary summaries that differ on some dates. National Security Agency, Fort Meade. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 7European Commission (ed.), Quantum policy page (Quantum Europe Strategy adopted July 2025; Quantum Act planned for 2026; Quantum Technologies Flagship EUR 1 billion from 2018; EuroHPC quantum computers EUR 100 million, October 2022). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: McKinsey and Company (ed.), Quantum Technology Monitor 2026 (startup investment USD 12.6 billion in 2025, 6.3 times 2024; company revenues above USD 1 billion; about 97% private funding), taken from search-result summaries; the chart page returned a service error. McKinsey and Company, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 9Jaschke, D. and Montangero, S., Is quantum computing green? An estimate for an energy-efficiency quantum advantage, Quantum Science and Technology 8, 025001, 2023 (preprint arXiv:2205.12092). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 10IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 13UNVERIFIED, not opened: War on the Rocks (ed.), The supply chain chokepoints in quantum (October 2025), and CNAS (ed.), report on helium-3 recovery and reserves (March 2026), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through quantum, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries quantum risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on quantum, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2Google Quantum AI and collaborators, Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold, Nature 638, 920 to 926, 2025 (preprint arXiv:2408.13687, August 2024). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 1Gidney, C., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits, arXiv:2505.15917, submitted 21 May 2025. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3NIST (ed.), NIST releases first 3 finalised post-quantum encryption standards (news release, 13 August 2024; FIPS 203, 204, 205). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: McKinsey and Company (ed.), Quantum Technology Monitor 2026 (startup investment USD 12.6 billion in 2025, 6.3 times 2024; company revenues above USD 1 billion; about 97% private funding), taken from search-result summaries; the chart page returned a service error. McKinsey and Company, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 10IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 8IBM (ed.), IBM Quantum technology and roadmap page (Nighthawk 120 qubits; Starling planned for 2029 with 200 logical qubits and 100 million gates; statement on advantage in 2026). IBM, Armonk. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 9Jaschke, D. and Montangero, S., Is quantum computing green? An estimate for an energy-efficiency quantum advantage, Quantum Science and Technology 8, 025001, 2023 (preprint arXiv:2205.12092). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 13UNVERIFIED, not opened: War on the Rocks (ed.), The supply chain chokepoints in quantum (October 2025), and CNAS (ed.), report on helium-3 recovery and reserves (March 2026), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 6European Commission (ed.), Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (library page; roadmap published 23 June 2025; page updated 3 September 2026; the roadmap milestones were not on the page). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 7European Commission (ed.), Quantum policy page (Quantum Europe Strategy adopted July 2025; Quantum Act planned for 2026; Quantum Technologies Flagship EUR 1 billion from 2018; EuroHPC quantum computers EUR 100 million, October 2022). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fowler, A.G. et al., Surface codes: towards practical large-scale quantum computation, Physical Review A 86, 032324, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Arute, F. et al., Quantum supremacy using a programmable superconducting processor, Nature 574, 505 to 510, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. InferredEQL 4RSK-XT02-CRY-001

   Cryptographic transition lag

   Driver

   falling resource estimates and slow migration¹³

   Exposure

   long-lived sensitive data; signatures on long-life devices

   Vulnerability

   inventory gaps; embedded and legacy systems

   Capacity

   standards, roadmaps and migration guidance³⁶³⁶

   Cascade

   DAT → FIN, HLT, INF

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

2. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT02-HEL-002

   Helium and helium-3 supply chokepoint

   Driver

   market disruption and scarce helium-3¹⁰¹³

   Exposure

   dilution-refrigerator hardware; research labs

   Vulnerability

   few suppliers; no large reserves

   Capacity

   recycling; alternative cryocoolers; reserves¹³

   Cascade

   MIN → INF

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

3. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-XT02-INF-003

   Hardware progress faster than planned

   Driver

   rapid improvement in error correction and estimates¹²³⁹

   Exposure

   planning assumptions of operators and regulators

   Vulnerability

   fixed migration schedules

   Capacity

   cryptographic agility; monitoring of milestones

   Cascade

   INF → DAT → FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT02-GOV-004

   Fragmented controls and capability concentration

   Driver

   export controls, national strategies and concentrated fabrication²¹⁷

   Exposure

   research collaboration; supply chains

   Vulnerability

   uneven access to hardware, skills and materials

   Capacity

   strategies, roadmaps and standards⁷¹⁸

   Cascade

   GOV → INF, FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for quantum at the global level.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Gidney, C., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits, arXiv:2505.15917, submitted 21 May 2025. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3NIST (ed.), NIST releases first 3 finalised post-quantum encryption standards (news release, 13 August 2024; FIPS 203, 204, 205). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 6European Commission (ed.), Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (library page; roadmap published 23 June 2025; page updated 3 September 2026; the roadmap milestones were not on the page). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: CISA, NSA and NIST (eds.), Quantum-Readiness: Migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography (factsheet), August 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 10IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 13UNVERIFIED, not opened: War on the Rocks (ed.), The supply chain chokepoints in quantum (October 2025), and CNAS (ed.), report on helium-3 recovery and reserves (March 2026), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 2Google Quantum AI and collaborators, Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold, Nature 638, 920 to 926, 2025 (preprint arXiv:2408.13687, August 2024). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bravyi, S. et al., High-threshold and low-overhead fault-tolerant quantum memory, Nature 627, 778 to 782, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 21UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), interim final rule on export controls for quantum computing items, September 2024, cited from memory. BIS, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 7European Commission (ed.), Quantum policy page (Quantum Europe Strategy adopted July 2025; Quantum Act planned for 2026; Quantum Technologies Flagship EUR 1 billion from 2018; EuroHPC quantum computers EUR 100 million, October 2022). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 18UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO and IEC (eds.), Joint Technical Committee ISO/IEC JTC 3, Quantum technologies, committee established 2024, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 5POST-CLOSE, context only: NIST (ed.), Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards, NIST IR 8547, final (publication page; document history 27 October 2026, after the 30 September evidence close; abstract refers to Executive Order 14412 and OMB Memorandum M-26-15). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: NIST National Cybersecurity Center of Excellence (ed.), Migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography, NIST SP 1800-38, cited from memory. NIST, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: McKinsey and Company (ed.), Quantum Technology Monitor 2026 (startup investment USD 12.6 billion in 2025, 6.3 times 2024; company revenues above USD 1 billion; about 97% private funding), taken from search-result summaries; the chart page returned a service error. McKinsey and Company, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Canada (ed.), National Quantum Strategy, January 2023, cited from memory. Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: UK Government (ed.), National Quantum Strategy, March 2023, cited from memory. Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 8IBM (ed.), IBM Quantum technology and roadmap page (Nighthawk 120 qubits; Starling planned for 2029 with 200 logical qubits and 100 million gates; statement on advantage in 2026). IBM, Armonk. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Krinner, S. et al., Engineering cryogenic setups for 100-qubit scale superconducting circuit systems, EPJ Quantum Technology 6, 2, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Preskill, J., Quantum computing in the NISQ era and beyond, Quantum 2, 79, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Campbell, E.T., Terhal, B.M. and Vuillot, C., Roads towards fault-tolerant universal quantum computation, Nature 549, 172 to 179, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ladd, T.D. et al., Quantum computers, Nature 464, 45 to 53, 2010, cited from memory. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-XT02-HND-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a faster-than-planned hardware milestone arrives while sectors with long-lived data have migrated only in part

Analogues

the 2021 to 2025 fall in resource estimates; the 2024 standards¹³²⁷

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   INF → DAT

   a hardware milestone lowers confidence in public-key methods

   2025

2. 2

   DAT → FIN

   regulators and firms re-rank migration priorities

   2024

3. 3

   DAT → HLT

   archived health and identity records become the first exposure

   2025

4. 4

   TRD → MIN

   demand for cryogenic hardware presses on helium supply

   2026

5. 5

   GOV → INF

   export controls and national roadmaps diverge

   2025

6. 6

   FIN → INF

   investment shifts to migration services and secure hardware

   2025

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-XT02-HND-01 would travel through Quantum Technologies’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Quantum Technologies 2026, scenario SCN-XT02-HND-01 (2026); Quantum Technologies 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Gidney, C., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits, arXiv:2505.15917, submitted 21 May 2025. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3NIST (ed.), NIST releases first 3 finalised post-quantum encryption standards (news release, 13 August 2024; FIPS 203, 204, 205). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gidney, C. and Ekerå, M., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers in 8 hours using 20 million noisy qubits, Quantum 5, 433, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for quantum. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 quantum readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• PUBLISHED
• DRAFT
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers quantum assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about quantum technologies as infrastructure and its couplings?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed journals and preprints; standards bodies and agencies; roadmaps; market and supply analyses

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: McKinsey and Company (ed.), Quantum Technology Monitor 2026 (startup investment USD 12.6 billion in 2025, 6.3 times 2024; company revenues above USD 1 billion; about 97% private funding), taken from search-result summaries; the chart page returned a service error. McKinsey and Company, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3NIST (ed.), NIST releases first 3 finalised post-quantum encryption standards (news release, 13 August 2024; FIPS 203, 204, 205). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 4NIST (ed.), Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards, NIST IR 8547, initial public draft (publication page; published 12 November 2024; comment period closed 10 January 2025). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 5POST-CLOSE, context only: NIST (ed.), Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards, NIST IR 8547, final (publication page; document history 27 October 2026, after the 30 September evidence close; abstract refers to Executive Order 14412 and OMB Memorandum M-26-15). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 16UNVERIFIED, not opened: NIST (ed.), Status Report on the Fourth Round of the NIST Post-Quantum Cryptography Standardization Process, NIST IR 8545, March 2025, cited from memory. National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 6European Commission (ed.), Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (library page; roadmap published 23 June 2025; page updated 3 September 2026; the roadmap milestones were not on the page). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 15UNVERIFIED, not opened: NIS Cooperation Group PQC workstream (eds.), A Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (milestones: roadmaps by the end of 2026, high-risk use cases by 2030, as many systems as feasible by 2035), taken from secondary summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 14UNVERIFIED, not opened: NSA (ed.), Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite 2.0 (CNSA 2.0) advisory and timetable, taken from secondary summaries that differ on some dates. National Security Agency, Fort Meade. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 17UNVERIFIED, not opened: ETSI (ed.), Migration strategies and recommendations for quantum-safe schemes, ETSI TR 103 619, 2020, cited from memory. European Telecommunications Standards Institute, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 18UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO and IEC (eds.), Joint Technical Committee ISO/IEC JTC 3, Quantum technologies, committee established 2024, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 19UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEEE (ed.), IEEE Std 7130-2022, Standard for Quantum Computing Definitions, cited from memory. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, New York. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 20UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Quantum Initiative Act, Public Law 115-368, United States Congress, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: G7 Cyber Expert Group (ed.), statement on planning for the opportunities and risks of quantum computing, September 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 7European Commission (ed.), Quantum policy page (Quantum Europe Strategy adopted July 2025; Quantum Act planned for 2026; Quantum Technologies Flagship EUR 1 billion from 2018; EuroHPC quantum computers EUR 100 million, October 2022). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 2Google Quantum AI and collaborators, Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold, Nature 638, 920 to 926, 2025 (preprint arXiv:2408.13687, August 2024). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 1Gidney, C., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits, arXiv:2505.15917, submitted 21 May 2025. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gidney, C. and Ekerå, M., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers in 8 hours using 20 million noisy qubits, Quantum 5, 433, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 9Jaschke, D. and Montangero, S., Is quantum computing green? An estimate for an energy-efficiency quantum advantage, Quantum Science and Technology 8, 025001, 2023 (preprint arXiv:2205.12092). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bluvstein, D. et al., Logical quantum processor based on reconfigurable atom arrays, Nature 626, 58 to 65, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bravyi, S. et al., High-threshold and low-overhead fault-tolerant quantum memory, Nature 627, 778 to 782, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Arute, F. et al., Quantum supremacy using a programmable superconducting processor, Nature 574, 505 to 510, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fowler, A.G. et al., Surface codes: towards practical large-scale quantum computation, Physical Review A 86, 032324, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Preskill, J., Quantum computing in the NISQ era and beyond, Quantum 2, 79, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shor, P.W., Polynomial-time algorithms for prime factorization and discrete logarithms on a quantum computer, SIAM Journal on Computing 26(5), 1484 to 1509, 1997, cited from memory. Observation year 1997. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Mosca, M., Cybersecurity in an era with quantum computers: will we be ready?, IEEE Security and Privacy 16(5), 38 to 41, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Campbell, E.T., Terhal, B.M. and Vuillot, C., Roads towards fault-tolerant universal quantum computation, Nature 549, 172 to 179, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ladd, T.D. et al., Quantum computers, Nature 464, 45 to 53, 2010, cited from memory. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Degen, C.L., Reinhard, F. and Cappellaro, P., Quantum sensing, Reviews of Modern Physics 89, 035002, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Wehner, S., Elkouss, D. and Hanson, R., Quantum internet: a vision for the road ahead, Science 362, eaam9288, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 8IBM (ed.), IBM Quantum technology and roadmap page (Nighthawk 120 qubits; Starling planned for 2029 with 200 logical qubits and 100 million gates; statement on advantage in 2026). IBM, Armonk. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 10IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 42Quantinuum (ed.), Quantinuum announces commercial launch of Helios (press release, 5 November 2025; 98 qubits, 99.921% two-qubit and 99.9975% single-qubit gate fidelity; 94 error-detected and 48 error-corrected logical qubits; no logical gate fidelity stated). Quantinuum, Broomfield. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 12UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Quantinuum (ed.), announcement of 99.9995% logical fidelity on the Helios system, October 2026, taken from a news summary of a company release; no peer-reviewed paper was located. Quantinuum, Broomfield. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 13UNVERIFIED, not opened: War on the Rocks (ed.), The supply chain chokepoints in quantum (October 2025), and CNAS (ed.), report on helium-3 recovery and reserves (March 2026), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Krinner, S. et al., Engineering cryogenic setups for 100-qubit scale superconducting circuit systems, EPJ Quantum Technology 6, 2, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Economic Forum (ed.), Quantum Economy Blueprint, January 2024, cited from memory. WEF, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly resolution A/RES/78/287 proclaiming 2025 the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology, 2024, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. Q-01

   How much long-lived sensitive data is exposed to later decryption, and how fast is migration to post-quantum cryptography in each sector?

   INI-XT02-HND-01 · exposure and migration; first output: sector migration register.

2. Q-02

   What do useful-scale machines need in power, cooling and cryogenic supply, and how does that compare with classical methods?

   INI-XT02-ENE-02 · energy and cooling footprint; first output: footprint estimates by platform.

3. Q-03

   How large is the helium-3 and helium-4 supply for cryogenics, and where are the chokepoints?

   INI-XT02-HEL-03 · helium supply; first output: supply map.

4. Q-04

   Which materials and fabrication steps are single points of failure for quantum hardware?

   INI-XT02-MAT-04 · materials and fabrication; first output: dependence map.

5. Q-05

   How can logical-qubit and fidelity claims be compared on a common basis?

   INI-XT02-BMK-05 · claims on a common basis; first output: benchmark table.

6. Q-06

   Which national roadmaps set migration dates, and how do they differ?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: roadmap overlay.

7. Q-07

   What workforce exists for hardware, cryogenics and cryptographic migration?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. Q-08

   Which readiness capabilities have been tested in real migrations, and which are only planned?

   Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 quantum portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The quantum edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on energy, minerals and cybersecurity, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and lifeline editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National readiness chapters

   quantum and cryptographic readiness in each national edition

   IN PREPARATION · national baselines

2. 02

   Sector couplings

   GS-02 energy · XT-10 cryptography · SR-04 minerals

   GS-02 DRAFTED · sector baselines

3. 03

   Technology system model

   hardware, cryogenics, materials, workforce, governance

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Strategic links

   SR-02 lifeline systems · SR-13 strategic technology

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   XT-02 report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the quantum candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-XT02-2027-01 · Long-lived data Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Gidney, C., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits, arXiv:2505.15917, submitted 21 May 2025. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 10IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 42Quantinuum (ed.), Quantinuum announces commercial launch of Helios (press release, 5 November 2025; 98 qubits, 99.921% two-qubit and 99.9975% single-qubit gate fidelity; 94 error-detected and 48 error-corrected logical qubits; no logical gate fidelity stated). Quantinuum, Broomfield. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Hardware and compute platforms

Quantum machines are built on several platforms. Evidence is strongest where peer review exists, and weakest where claims rest on vendor announcements.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
• XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.2Cryogenics, energy and helium

Many machines run below 10 millikelvin on dilution refrigerators that use helium-3 and helium-4. The energy and cooling footprint of useful machines is not yet published.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
• XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.3Materials, fabrication and supply chain

Hardware depends on specialised materials and fabrication steps, and on strategic minor minerals whose prices rose sharply in 2025 and 2026.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
• XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.4Economy, investment and workforce

Investment surged in 2025, and almost all of it was private. Public finance and workforce numbers are the thin parts of the evidence.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
• XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.5Security, cryptography and governance watch

The nearest effect of quantum technology on other infrastructure is the move to new cryptography. Standards exist, and national roadmaps are starting to set dates.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
• XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2Google Quantum AI and collaborators, Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold, Nature 638, 920 to 926, 2025 (preprint arXiv:2408.13687, August 2024). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 8IBM (ed.), IBM Quantum technology and roadmap page (Nighthawk 120 qubits; Starling planned for 2029 with 200 logical qubits and 100 million gates; statement on advantage in 2026). IBM, Armonk. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 42Quantinuum (ed.), Quantinuum announces commercial launch of Helios (press release, 5 November 2025; 98 qubits, 99.921% two-qubit and 99.9975% single-qubit gate fidelity; 94 error-detected and 48 error-corrected logical qubits; no logical gate fidelity stated). Quantinuum, Broomfield. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bluvstein, D. et al., Logical quantum processor based on reconfigurable atom arrays, Nature 626, 58 to 65, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fowler, A.G. et al., Surface codes: towards practical large-scale quantum computation, Physical Review A 86, 032324, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bravyi, S. et al., High-threshold and low-overhead fault-tolerant quantum memory, Nature 627, 778 to 782, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 13UNVERIFIED, not opened: War on the Rocks (ed.), The supply chain chokepoints in quantum (October 2025), and CNAS (ed.), report on helium-3 recovery and reserves (March 2026), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 9Jaschke, D. and Montangero, S., Is quantum computing green? An estimate for an energy-efficiency quantum advantage, Quantum Science and Technology 8, 025001, 2023 (preprint arXiv:2205.12092). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 10IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Krinner, S. et al., Engineering cryogenic setups for 100-qubit scale superconducting circuit systems, EPJ Quantum Technology 6, 2, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Economic Forum (ed.), Quantum Economy Blueprint, January 2024, cited from memory. WEF, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 7European Commission (ed.), Quantum policy page (Quantum Europe Strategy adopted July 2025; Quantum Act planned for 2026; Quantum Technologies Flagship EUR 1 billion from 2018; EuroHPC quantum computers EUR 100 million, October 2022). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: McKinsey and Company (ed.), Quantum Technology Monitor 2026 (startup investment USD 12.6 billion in 2025, 6.3 times 2024; company revenues above USD 1 billion; about 97% private funding), taken from search-result summaries; the chart page returned a service error. McKinsey and Company, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Canada (ed.), National Quantum Strategy, January 2023, cited from memory. Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: UK Government (ed.), National Quantum Strategy, March 2023, cited from memory. Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 3NIST (ed.), NIST releases first 3 finalised post-quantum encryption standards (news release, 13 August 2024; FIPS 203, 204, 205). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 1Gidney, C., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits, arXiv:2505.15917, submitted 21 May 2025. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 15UNVERIFIED, not opened: NIS Cooperation Group PQC workstream (eds.), A Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (milestones: roadmaps by the end of 2026, high-risk use cases by 2030, as many systems as feasible by 2035), taken from secondary summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 4NIST (ed.), Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards, NIST IR 8547, initial public draft (publication page; published 12 November 2024; comment period closed 10 January 2025). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 5POST-CLOSE, context only: NIST (ed.), Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards, NIST IR 8547, final (publication page; document history 27 October 2026, after the 30 September evidence close; abstract refers to Executive Order 14412 and OMB Memorandum M-26-15). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 6European Commission (ed.), Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (library page; roadmap published 23 June 2025; page updated 3 September 2026; the roadmap milestones were not on the page). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 21UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), interim final rule on export controls for quantum computing items, September 2024, cited from memory. BIS, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly resolution A/RES/78/287 proclaiming 2025 the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology, 2024, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Quantum System Model v0

Model ID

MDL-XT02-QUANTUM · v0.1

Purpose

represent quantum technologies as infrastructure coupled to energy, cryogenic supply, materials, finance, workforce and cryptographic security

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

42 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 quantum annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• Gidney¹: assumptions and sensitivity of the resource estimate
• IBM⁸: roadmap file and delivered milestones
• NIST⁵: final transition report text
• European Commission⁶: roadmap document

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: logical error per cycle

Construct

probability that an encoded logical qubit holds a wrong value after one round of error correction

Unit

percent per cycle

Method

repeated syndrome measurement and real-time decoding

Source

Nature 638 (2025)²

Uncertainty

reported with a standard error of 0.003 percentage points

Known limits

one platform and two code distances; rare correlated errors limit repetition-code results

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9Jaschke, D. and Montangero, S., Is quantum computing green? An estimate for an energy-efficiency quantum advantage, Quantum Science and Technology 8, 025001, 2023 (preprint arXiv:2205.12092). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 13UNVERIFIED, not opened: War on the Rocks (ed.), The supply chain chokepoints in quantum (October 2025), and CNAS (ed.), report on helium-3 recovery and reserves (March 2026), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 42Quantinuum (ed.), Quantinuum announces commercial launch of Helios (press release, 5 November 2025; 98 qubits, 99.921% two-qubit and 99.9975% single-qubit gate fidelity; 94 error-detected and 48 error-corrected logical qubits; no logical gate fidelity stated). Quantinuum, Broomfield. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6European Commission (ed.), Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (library page; roadmap published 23 June 2025; page updated 3 September 2026; the roadmap milestones were not on the page). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 15UNVERIFIED, not opened: NIS Cooperation Group PQC workstream (eds.), A Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (milestones: roadmaps by the end of 2026, high-risk use cases by 2030, as many systems as feasible by 2035), taken from secondary summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 14UNVERIFIED, not opened: NSA (ed.), Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite 2.0 (CNSA 2.0) advisory and timetable, taken from secondary summaries that differ on some dates. National Security Agency, Fort Meade. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 5POST-CLOSE, context only: NIST (ed.), Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards, NIST IR 8547, final (publication page; document history 27 October 2026, after the 30 September evidence close; abstract refers to Executive Order 14412 and OMB Memorandum M-26-15). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: McKinsey and Company (ed.), Quantum Technology Monitor 2026 (startup investment USD 12.6 billion in 2025, 6.3 times 2024; company revenues above USD 1 billion; about 97% private funding), taken from search-result summaries; the chart page returned a service error. McKinsey and Company, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Canada (ed.), National Quantum Strategy, January 2023, cited from memory. Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: UK Government (ed.), National Quantum Strategy, March 2023, cited from memory. Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 7European Commission (ed.), Quantum policy page (Quantum Europe Strategy adopted July 2025; Quantum Act planned for 2026; Quantum Technologies Flagship EUR 1 billion from 2018; EuroHPC quantum computers EUR 100 million, October 2022). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 8IBM (ed.), IBM Quantum technology and roadmap page (Nighthawk 120 qubits; Starling planned for 2029 with 200 logical qubits and 100 million gates; statement on advantage in 2026). IBM, Armonk. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 2Google Quantum AI and collaborators, Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold, Nature 638, 920 to 926, 2025 (preprint arXiv:2408.13687, August 2024). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 3NIST (ed.), NIST releases first 3 finalised post-quantum encryption standards (news release, 13 August 2024; FIPS 203, 204, 205). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 1Gidney, C., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits, arXiv:2505.15917, submitted 21 May 2025. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• INF
• DAT
• FIN
• MIN
• ENE
• CLI
• TRD
• WAT
• HLT
• FOO

B.3Regional reading, quantum across ten clusters

Regional plates follow with the regional editions. This page gives the regional reading of quantum infrastructure and exposure in table form and ranks no region.

B.4Cluster card: dilution-refrigerator supply chain

• supply chain
• cryogenics
• helium-3
• single point

Systems in view

hardware, cryogenics, helium, research laboratories

Defining events

helium market disruption linked to the 2026 Hormuz closure¹⁰

Couplings

MIN → INF helium; TRD → MIN chokepoints

Capability evidence

recycling and alternative cryocooler programmes reported¹³

Gaps

helium-3 volumes; reserves; production capacity

Agenda items

Q-03 · Q-04

B.5How countries appear in the quantum edition

Countries enter the quantum edition through the readiness chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2Google Quantum AI and collaborators, Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold, Nature 638, 920 to 926, 2025 (preprint arXiv:2408.13687, August 2024). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 1Gidney, C., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits, arXiv:2505.15917, submitted 21 May 2025. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gidney, C. and Ekerå, M., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers in 8 hours using 20 million noisy qubits, Quantum 5, 433, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 8IBM (ed.), IBM Quantum technology and roadmap page (Nighthawk 120 qubits; Starling planned for 2029 with 200 logical qubits and 100 million gates; statement on advantage in 2026). IBM, Armonk. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 3NIST (ed.), NIST releases first 3 finalised post-quantum encryption standards (news release, 13 August 2024; FIPS 203, 204, 205). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: McKinsey and Company (ed.), Quantum Technology Monitor 2026 (startup investment USD 12.6 billion in 2025, 6.3 times 2024; company revenues above USD 1 billion; about 97% private funding), taken from search-result summaries; the chart page returned a service error. McKinsey and Company, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 7European Commission (ed.), Quantum policy page (Quantum Europe Strategy adopted July 2025; Quantum Act planned for 2026; Quantum Technologies Flagship EUR 1 billion from 2018; EuroHPC quantum computers EUR 100 million, October 2022). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 10IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 4NIST (ed.), Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards, NIST IR 8547, initial public draft (publication page; published 12 November 2024; comment period closed 10 January 2025). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 5POST-CLOSE, context only: NIST (ed.), Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards, NIST IR 8547, final (publication page; document history 27 October 2026, after the 30 September evidence close; abstract refers to Executive Order 14412 and OMB Memorandum M-26-15). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 6European Commission (ed.), Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (library page; roadmap published 23 June 2025; page updated 3 September 2026; the roadmap milestones were not on the page). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 9Jaschke, D. and Montangero, S., Is quantum computing green? An estimate for an energy-efficiency quantum advantage, Quantum Science and Technology 8, 025001, 2023 (preprint arXiv:2205.12092). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 14UNVERIFIED, not opened: NSA (ed.), Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite 2.0 (CNSA 2.0) advisory and timetable, taken from secondary summaries that differ on some dates. National Security Agency, Fort Meade. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 13UNVERIFIED, not opened: War on the Rocks (ed.), The supply chain chokepoints in quantum (October 2025), and CNAS (ed.), report on helium-3 recovery and reserves (March 2026), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.142 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Gidney, C., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits, arXiv:2505.15917, submitted 21 May 2025. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
2. 2Google Quantum AI and collaborators, Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold, Nature 638, 920 to 926, 2025 (preprint arXiv:2408.13687, August 2024). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
3. 3NIST (ed.), NIST releases first 3 finalised post-quantum encryption standards (news release, 13 August 2024; FIPS 203, 204, 205). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
4. 4NIST (ed.), Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards, NIST IR 8547, initial public draft (publication page; published 12 November 2024; comment period closed 10 January 2025). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5POST-CLOSE, context only: NIST (ed.), Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards, NIST IR 8547, final (publication page; document history 27 October 2026, after the 30 September evidence close; abstract refers to Executive Order 14412 and OMB Memorandum M-26-15). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
6. 6European Commission (ed.), Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (library page; roadmap published 23 June 2025; page updated 3 September 2026; the roadmap milestones were not on the page). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
7. 7European Commission (ed.), Quantum policy page (Quantum Europe Strategy adopted July 2025; Quantum Act planned for 2026; Quantum Technologies Flagship EUR 1 billion from 2018; EuroHPC quantum computers EUR 100 million, October 2022). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
8. 8IBM (ed.), IBM Quantum technology and roadmap page (Nighthawk 120 qubits; Starling planned for 2029 with 200 logical qubits and 100 million gates; statement on advantage in 2026). IBM, Armonk. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
9. 9Jaschke, D. and Montangero, S., Is quantum computing green? An estimate for an energy-efficiency quantum advantage, Quantum Science and Technology 8, 025001, 2023 (preprint arXiv:2205.12092). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
10. 10IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
11. 11UNVERIFIED, not opened: McKinsey and Company (ed.), Quantum Technology Monitor 2026 (startup investment USD 12.6 billion in 2025, 6.3 times 2024; company revenues above USD 1 billion; about 97% private funding), taken from search-result summaries; the chart page returned a service error. McKinsey and Company, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
12. 12UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Quantinuum (ed.), announcement of 99.9995% logical fidelity on the Helios system, October 2026, taken from a news summary of a company release; no peer-reviewed paper was located. Quantinuum, Broomfield. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
13. 13UNVERIFIED, not opened: War on the Rocks (ed.), The supply chain chokepoints in quantum (October 2025), and CNAS (ed.), report on helium-3 recovery and reserves (March 2026), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
14. 14UNVERIFIED, not opened: NSA (ed.), Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite 2.0 (CNSA 2.0) advisory and timetable, taken from secondary summaries that differ on some dates. National Security Agency, Fort Meade. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
15. 15UNVERIFIED, not opened: NIS Cooperation Group PQC workstream (eds.), A Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (milestones: roadmaps by the end of 2026, high-risk use cases by 2030, as many systems as feasible by 2035), taken from secondary summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
16. 16UNVERIFIED, not opened: NIST (ed.), Status Report on the Fourth Round of the NIST Post-Quantum Cryptography Standardization Process, NIST IR 8545, March 2025, cited from memory. National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
17. 17UNVERIFIED, not opened: ETSI (ed.), Migration strategies and recommendations for quantum-safe schemes, ETSI TR 103 619, 2020, cited from memory. European Telecommunications Standards Institute, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
18. 18UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO and IEC (eds.), Joint Technical Committee ISO/IEC JTC 3, Quantum technologies, committee established 2024, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
19. 19UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEEE (ed.), IEEE Std 7130-2022, Standard for Quantum Computing Definitions, cited from memory. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, New York. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
20. 20UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Quantum Initiative Act, Public Law 115-368, United States Congress, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
21. 21UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), interim final rule on export controls for quantum computing items, September 2024, cited from memory. BIS, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
22. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Canada (ed.), National Quantum Strategy, January 2023, cited from memory. Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
23. 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: UK Government (ed.), National Quantum Strategy, March 2023, cited from memory. Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
24. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly resolution A/RES/78/287 proclaiming 2025 the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology, 2024, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Preskill, J., Quantum computing in the NISQ era and beyond, Quantum 2, 79, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shor, P.W., Polynomial-time algorithms for prime factorization and discrete logarithms on a quantum computer, SIAM Journal on Computing 26(5), 1484 to 1509, 1997, cited from memory. Observation year 1997. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gidney, C. and Ekerå, M., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers in 8 hours using 20 million noisy qubits, Quantum 5, 433, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6
28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Mosca, M., Cybersecurity in an era with quantum computers: will we be ready?, IEEE Security and Privacy 16(5), 38 to 41, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fowler, A.G. et al., Surface codes: towards practical large-scale quantum computation, Physical Review A 86, 032324, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Arute, F. et al., Quantum supremacy using a programmable superconducting processor, Nature 574, 505 to 510, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Degen, C.L., Reinhard, F. and Cappellaro, P., Quantum sensing, Reviews of Modern Physics 89, 035002, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Wehner, S., Elkouss, D. and Hanson, R., Quantum internet: a vision for the road ahead, Science 362, eaam9288, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Krinner, S. et al., Engineering cryogenic setups for 100-qubit scale superconducting circuit systems, EPJ Quantum Technology 6, 2, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Economic Forum (ed.), Quantum Economy Blueprint, January 2024, cited from memory. WEF, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: NIST National Cybersecurity Center of Excellence (ed.), Migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography, NIST SP 1800-38, cited from memory. NIST, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: CISA, NSA and NIST (eds.), Quantum-Readiness: Migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography (factsheet), August 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: G7 Cyber Expert Group (ed.), statement on planning for the opportunities and risks of quantum computing, September 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bluvstein, D. et al., Logical quantum processor based on reconfigurable atom arrays, Nature 626, 58 to 65, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bravyi, S. et al., High-threshold and low-overhead fault-tolerant quantum memory, Nature 627, 778 to 782, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Campbell, E.T., Terhal, B.M. and Vuillot, C., Roads towards fault-tolerant universal quantum computation, Nature 549, 172 to 179, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ladd, T.D. et al., Quantum computers, Nature 464, 45 to 53, 2010, cited from memory. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
42. 42Quantinuum (ed.), Quantinuum announces commercial launch of Helios (press release, 5 November 2025; 98 qubits, 99.921% two-qubit and 99.9975% single-qubit gate fidelity; 94 error-detected and 48 error-corrected logical qubits; no logical gate fidelity stated). Quantinuum, Broomfield. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version