References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

13 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

C.142 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1Gidney, C., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits, arXiv:2505.15917, submitted 21 May 2025. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
2Google Quantum AI and collaborators, Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold, Nature 638, 920 to 926, 2025 (preprint arXiv:2408.13687, August 2024). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
3NIST (ed.), NIST releases first 3 finalised post-quantum encryption standards (news release, 13 August 2024; FIPS 203, 204, 205). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
4NIST (ed.), Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards, NIST IR 8547, initial public draft (publication page; published 12 November 2024; comment period closed 10 January 2025). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
5POST-CLOSE, context only: NIST (ed.), Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards, NIST IR 8547, final (publication page; document history 27 October 2026, after the 30 September evidence close; abstract refers to Executive Order 14412 and OMB Memorandum M-26-15). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
6European Commission (ed.), Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (library page; roadmap published 23 June 2025; page updated 3 September 2026; the roadmap milestones were not on the page). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
7European Commission (ed.), Quantum policy page (Quantum Europe Strategy adopted July 2025; Quantum Act planned for 2026; Quantum Technologies Flagship EUR 1 billion from 2018; EuroHPC quantum computers EUR 100 million, October 2022). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
8IBM (ed.), IBM Quantum technology and roadmap page (Nighthawk 120 qubits; Starling planned for 2029 with 200 logical qubits and 100 million gates; statement on advantage in 2026). IBM, Armonk. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
9Jaschke, D. and Montangero, S., Is quantum computing green? An estimate for an energy-efficiency quantum advantage, Quantum Science and Technology 8, 025001, 2023 (preprint arXiv:2205.12092). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
10IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
11UNVERIFIED, not opened: McKinsey and Company (ed.), Quantum Technology Monitor 2026 (startup investment USD 12.6 billion in 2025, 6.3 times 2024; company revenues above USD 1 billion; about 97% private funding), taken from search-result summaries; the chart page returned a service error. McKinsey and Company, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
12UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: Quantinuum (ed.), announcement of 99.9995% logical fidelity on the Helios system, October 2026, taken from a news summary of a company release; no peer-reviewed paper was located. Quantinuum, Broomfield. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
13UNVERIFIED, not opened: War on the Rocks (ed.), The supply chain chokepoints in quantum (October 2025), and CNAS (ed.), report on helium-3 recovery and reserves (March 2026), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
14UNVERIFIED, not opened: NSA (ed.), Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite 2.0 (CNSA 2.0) advisory and timetable, taken from secondary summaries that differ on some dates. National Security Agency, Fort Meade. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
15UNVERIFIED, not opened: NIS Cooperation Group PQC workstream (eds.), A Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (milestones: roadmaps by the end of 2026, high-risk use cases by 2030, as many systems as feasible by 2035), taken from secondary summaries. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
16UNVERIFIED, not opened: NIST (ed.), Status Report on the Fourth Round of the NIST Post-Quantum Cryptography Standardization Process, NIST IR 8545, March 2025, cited from memory. National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
17UNVERIFIED, not opened: ETSI (ed.), Migration strategies and recommendations for quantum-safe schemes, ETSI TR 103 619, 2020, cited from memory. European Telecommunications Standards Institute, Sophia Antipolis. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
18UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO and IEC (eds.), Joint Technical Committee ISO/IEC JTC 3, Quantum technologies, committee established 2024, cited from memory. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
19UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEEE (ed.), IEEE Std 7130-2022, Standard for Quantum Computing Definitions, cited from memory. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, New York. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
20UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Quantum Initiative Act, Public Law 115-368, United States Congress, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
21UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), interim final rule on export controls for quantum computing items, September 2024, cited from memory. BIS, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Canada (ed.), National Quantum Strategy, January 2023, cited from memory. Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
23UNVERIFIED, not opened: UK Government (ed.), National Quantum Strategy, March 2023, cited from memory. Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
24UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly resolution A/RES/78/287 proclaiming 2025 the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology, 2024, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Preskill, J., Quantum computing in the NISQ era and beyond, Quantum 2, 79, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shor, P.W., Polynomial-time algorithms for prime factorization and discrete logarithms on a quantum computer, SIAM Journal on Computing 26(5), 1484 to 1509, 1997, cited from memory. Observation year 1997. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gidney, C. and Ekerå, M., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers in 8 hours using 20 million noisy qubits, Quantum 5, 433, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6
28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Mosca, M., Cybersecurity in an era with quantum computers: will we be ready?, IEEE Security and Privacy 16(5), 38 to 41, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fowler, A.G. et al., Surface codes: towards practical large-scale quantum computation, Physical Review A 86, 032324, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Arute, F. et al., Quantum supremacy using a programmable superconducting processor, Nature 574, 505 to 510, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Degen, C.L., Reinhard, F. and Cappellaro, P., Quantum sensing, Reviews of Modern Physics 89, 035002, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Wehner, S., Elkouss, D. and Hanson, R., Quantum internet: a vision for the road ahead, Science 362, eaam9288, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Krinner, S. et al., Engineering cryogenic setups for 100-qubit scale superconducting circuit systems, EPJ Quantum Technology 6, 2, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Economic Forum (ed.), Quantum Economy Blueprint, January 2024, cited from memory. WEF, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: NIST National Cybersecurity Center of Excellence (ed.), Migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography, NIST SP 1800-38, cited from memory. NIST, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: CISA, NSA and NIST (eds.), Quantum-Readiness: Migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography (factsheet), August 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: G7 Cyber Expert Group (ed.), statement on planning for the opportunities and risks of quantum computing, September 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bluvstein, D. et al., Logical quantum processor based on reconfigurable atom arrays, Nature 626, 58 to 65, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bravyi, S. et al., High-threshold and low-overhead fault-tolerant quantum memory, Nature 627, 778 to 782, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Campbell, E.T., Terhal, B.M. and Vuillot, C., Roads towards fault-tolerant universal quantum computation, Nature 549, 172 to 179, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ladd, T.D. et al., Quantum computers, Nature 464, 45 to 53, 2010, cited from memory. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
42Quantinuum (ed.), Quantinuum announces commercial launch of Helios (press release, 5 November 2025; 98 qubits, 99.921% two-qubit and 99.9975% single-qubit gate fidelity; 94 error-detected and 48 error-corrected logical qubits; no logical gate fidelity stated). Quantinuum, Broomfield. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title: Exponential Technology Report 2026: Quantum Technologies, Baseline Edition
Series: Reports · Exponential Technology Series XT-02
Edition: Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version: v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID: NR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close: 30 September 2026
Publication date: October 2026
DOI: concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place: Toronto
Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards: GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence: text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright: © 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language: English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence: Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format: A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces: Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard: Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility: tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production: Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
Step	What happens	When
Draft	editorial self-check complete at evidence close	October 2026
Steward review	five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)	Q4 2026
Approval	publication authority approves the exact digest	before release
Deposit	concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set	at release
Succession	the 2027 quantum edition reports changes against this baseline	2027

Current version: v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition: none, first edition of the series
Next edition: NR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0

Latest version: resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route: Registry correction pathway
Notice types: erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

Edition	Version	Date	State	Change	Notice
XT-02	NR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0	October 2026	Draft	Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,	None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID: NR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias: NR-XTC-XT-02-2026-BL
Collection: None
DOI: Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions: Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle: RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID: Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR: Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account: None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Quantum Technologies; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Quantum Technologies, prefilled from this page

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
XT-02 edition Reports Quantum Technologies 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-02 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

Handoff	Between	What crosses, and when
F03	Foundry to Reports	Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04	Universe to Reports	After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05	Foundry to Reports	National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Ring	Nexus Standards to Reports	Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06	Reports to Nexus Standards	Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12	Reports to Universe	Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Ring	Reports to Risk Academy	Risk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Quantum Technologies (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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