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Long-lived data exposure while migration is slow

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables3 notesNR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Quantum is infrastructure and a cryptographic deadline
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Long-lived data exposure while migration is slow
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-XT02-HND-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a faster-than-planned hardware milestone arrives while sectors with long-lived data have migrated only in part
Analogues
the 2021 to 2025 fall in resource estimates; the 2024 standards1327
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    INF → DAT

    a hardware milestone lowers confidence in public-key methods

    2025

  2. 2

    DAT → FIN

    regulators and firms re-rank migration priorities

    2024

  3. 3

    DAT → HLT

    archived health and identity records become the first exposure

    2025

  4. 4

    TRD → MIN

    demand for cryogenic hardware presses on helium supply

    2026

  5. 5

    GOV → INF

    export controls and national roadmaps diverge

    2025

  6. 6

    FIN → INF

    investment shifts to migration services and secure hardware

    2025

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-XT02-HND-01 would travel through Quantum Technologies’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Infrastructure to datA hardware milestone lowers confidence in public-key methods. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-02, scenario SCN-XT02-HND-01, step 1
02 DAT to financeRegulators and firms re-rank migration priorities. Analogue or source: 2024.Edition XT-02, scenario SCN-XT02-HND-01, step 2
03 DAT to healthArchived health and identity records become the first exposure. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-02, scenario SCN-XT02-HND-01, step 3
04 Trade to mineralsDemand for cryogenic hardware presses on helium supply. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-02, scenario SCN-XT02-HND-01, step 4
05 Governance to infrastructureExport controls and national roadmaps diverge. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-02, scenario SCN-XT02-HND-01, step 5
06 Finance to infrastructureInvestment shifts to migration services and secure hardware. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-02, scenario SCN-XT02-HND-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Quantum Technologies 2026, scenario SCN-XT02-HND-01 (2026); Quantum Technologies 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Gidney, C., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits, arXiv:2505.15917, submitted 21 May 2025. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3NIST (ed.), NIST releases first 3 finalised post-quantum encryption standards (news release, 13 August 2024; FIPS 203, 204, 205). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gidney, C. and Ekerå, M., How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers in 8 hours using 20 million noisy qubits, Quantum 5, 433, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Long-lived data exposure while migration is slow. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Quantum Technologies (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-QUANTUM-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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