Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

9 min read0 figures5 tables25 notesNR-XTECH-GENOMICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Genomics is data infrastructure and a therapeutic frontier
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Individualised editing outpaces delivery systems
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Sequencing hardware, data and compute
    2. 8.2 Compute, energy and cold chains
    3. 8.3 Instruments, consumables and supply chain
    4. 8.4 Economy, access and workforce
    5. 8.5 Security, data protection and governance watch
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Sequencing hardware, data and compute

Sequencers, reference genomes and biobanks carry the data base. Evidence is strongest where peer review exists, and weakest where claims rest on vendor pages.

3.055billion bp

T2T-CHM13 complete sequence11

490,640participants

UK Biobank whole genomes16

>128genomes

vendor claim per NovaSeq X Plus run14

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Reference genomesa complete sequence and a 47-assembly draft pangenome published1112Reported
Biobankstwo releases of 490,640 and 245,388 genomes1617Reported
Sequencersvendor pages claim 16 to 21 Tb per run and a USD 60 genome on another platform1415Reported
Genome modelsa 2025 preprint reports a model trained on 9.3 trillion base pairs23Reported

Couplings

  • INF ↔ DAT hardware and data
  • DAT → HLT diagnosis and targets
  • DAT → AIC genome models

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • independent cost per genome
  • sequencer fleet by country

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health
  • XT-04 Biotechnology
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.2Compute, energy and cold chains

Genomics is a big-data science, and compute has a carbon footprint. The energy and cooling use of sequencing and of cell-therapy cold chains is not published.

73%

cut in one tool footprint after a software upgrade21

2025projection year

genomics compared with astronomy and video platforms20

0figures bound

cold-chain energy and water

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Computebiobank-scale association studies emit substantial carbon; software choices matter2122Reported
Data growthgenomics projected to be on par with the most demanding data domains20Reported
Cold chaincell therapies are collected, edited and infused; energy not published16Expert input
Waternot published for laboratories and manufacture21Expert input

Couplings

  • ENE ↔ INF facility power
  • ENE → CLI emissions
  • INF → HLT cold-chain continuity

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • sequencing and cold-chain energy
  • laboratory water use

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health
  • XT-04 Biotechnology
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.3Instruments, consumables and supply chain

Sequencing depends on instruments and consumables from a few suppliers, and trade rules changed supply in 2025.

54% fall

Illumina instrument sales in China, Q3 202531

10November 2025

date China lifted its Illumina import ban31

18December 2026

OMB list deadline under BIOSECURE30

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Instrument tradeChina banned Illumina imports in March 2025 and lifted the ban in November 202531Reported
Procurement lawBIOSECURE enacted on 18 December 2025; BGI, FGI and MGI covered through the 1260H list30Reported
New entrantsa second vendor lists a lower price on its own platform15Reported
Reagents and plasticsnot assessed in this edition14Expert input

Couplings

  • TRD → INF instruments
  • TRD → DAT data access
  • FIN → INF new platforms

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • consumable supply by country
  • single points of failure by platform

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health
  • XT-04 Biotechnology
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.4Economy, access and workforce

Therapy revenue is rising from a small base, and access is limited by cost and manufacturing capacity. Workforce figures are thin.

42.9USD million

Casgevy revenue, Q1 20266

≈4,200jobs

genetic counsellors in the US, 202533

10%

projected growth, 2025 to 203533

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
RevenueUSD 42.9 million in the first quarter of 2026 against USD 14.2 million in 20256Reported
Accesslimited by cost and manufacturing capacity; a Uganda model adapts evidence to local costs78Reported
Counselling workforcemedian pay USD 100,040 in May 202533Reported
Newborn sequencinga study plans 100,000 babies and screens for more than 200 conditions34Reported

Couplings

  • FIN → HLT access
  • HLT → FIN payment
  • DAT → FIN data assets

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • patients treated and prices
  • wider workforce

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health
  • XT-04 Biotechnology
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

8.5Security, data protection and governance watch

Rules decide what reaches patients and who holds genetic data. Heritable editing is judged unacceptable at this time, and approvals for bespoke therapies are being redrawn.

2023first approval

FDA approval of Casgevy, 8 December1

2021WHO framework

published 12 July27

2028application

EU regulation on plants from new genomic techniques applies from 17 July36

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Approvalsfirst CRISPR-based therapy approved; plausible mechanism pathway described15Reported
Heritable editingjudged unacceptable at this time by the Third Summit committee28Reported
Data protectionsale of a large genetic database was approved in bankruptcy in 20253238Reported
Plant editingrules in England and the EU2936Reported

Couplings

  • GOV → HLT approvals
  • GOV → DAT consent
  • GOV → FOO plant rules

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • national rule texts
  • migration of data-protection practice

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health
  • XT-04 Biotechnology
  • XT-10 Cybersecurity and Advanced Cryptography
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
  • XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 11Nurk, S. et al., The complete sequence of a human genome, Science 2022 (abstract read through the Europe PMC record; 3.055 billion base pairs; nearly 200 million base pairs of new sequence). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 16UK Biobank Whole-Genome Sequencing Consortium, Whole-genome sequencing of 490,640 UK Biobank participants, Nature 2025 (abstract read through the Europe PMC record). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 14Illumina (ed.), NovaSeq X Series product page (vendor claims: 16 to 21 Tb per run for NovaSeq X Plus, more than 128 genomes per run, run time about 14 to 48 hours; vendor evidence, weak). Illumina, San Diego. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 12Liao, W.-W. et al. (Human Pangenome Reference Consortium), A draft human pangenome reference, Nature 2023 (abstract read through the Europe PMC record; 47 phased diploid assemblies; 119 million base pairs added). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 17All of Us Research Program Genomics Investigators, Genomic data in the All of Us Research Program, Nature 2024 (abstract read through the Europe PMC record; 245,388 genomes; 77% from communities under-represented in research). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 15Ultima Genomics (ed.), germline genetics product page (vendor claim of a USD 60 genome at list price over 4 wafers on the UG200 series; the browser title reads USD 80; vendor evidence, weak). Ultima Genomics, Newark. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 23Brixi, G. et al., Genome modelling and design across all domains of life with Evo 2, bioRxiv preprint 2025 (abstract read through the Europe PMC record; trained on 9.3 trillion base pairs; not peer reviewed at the time of reading). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 21Grealey, J. et al., The Carbon Footprint of Bioinformatics, Molecular Biology and Evolution 2022 (abstract read through the Europe PMC record; a software upgrade cut one tool footprint by 73%). Oxford University Press, Oxford. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 20Stephens, Z.D. et al., Big Data: Astronomical or Genomical?, PLOS Biology 2015 (abstract read through the Europe PMC record). Public Library of Science, San Francisco. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 22Lannelongue, L., Grealey, J. and Inouye, M., Green Algorithms: Quantifying the Carbon Footprint of Computation, Advanced Science 2021 (abstract read through the Europe PMC record). Wiley, Weinheim. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 1US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), FDA approves first gene therapies to treat patients with sickle cell disease (press announcement, 8 December 2023; Casgevy uses CRISPR/Cas9, Lyfgenia a lentiviral vector; patients 12 years and older). FDA, Silver Spring. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 6Vertex Pharmaceuticals (ed.), Vertex Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results (company press release read through a wire page; Casgevy revenue USD 42.9 million against USD 14.2 million; pediatric submission completed; company statement, weak evidence). Vertex, Boston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 31MedTech Dive (ed.), China to lift Illumina export ban (trade press, November 2025; listing in February 2025, import ban in March 2025, lift on 10 November 2025, instrument sales in China down 54% in the third quarter; secondary report, weak evidence). Industry Dive, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 30Latham and Watkins (ed.), BIOSECURE Act becomes law, limiting grants with biotechnology companies of concern (law-firm summary; enacted 18 December 2025 in the FY2026 NDAA; OMB list due by 18 December 2026; secondary source of a statute). Latham and Watkins, Los Angeles. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 33US Bureau of Labor Statistics (ed.), Occupational Outlook Handbook: Genetic Counselors (about 4,200 jobs in 2025; median pay USD 100,040 in May 2025; 10% growth projected 2025 to 2035). BLS, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 7Chetlapalli, K. et al., Haploidentical transplant, gene therapy, and standard care in sickle cell disease: a cost-effectiveness analysis, Blood 2026 (abstract read through the Europe PMC record; gene therapy access limited by cost and manufacturing capacity). American Society of Hematology, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 8Montano-Campos, J.F. et al., Cost-effectiveness of gene therapy for sickle cell disease in Uganda: tailoring high-income evidence to Uganda context, Gene Therapy 2026 (abstract read through the Europe PMC record). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 34Genomics England (ed.), Generation Study: newborn genome sequencing (initiative page; 100,000 babies; more than 200 conditions; recruitment progress not stated). Genomics England, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 27World Health Organization (ed.), Human genome editing: a framework for governance (technical document, 12 July 2021; companion recommendations published separately and not read). WHO, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2026/1388 on plants obtained by certain new genomic techniques (adopted 17 June 2026, published 26 June 2026, applies from 17 July 2028), taken from search-result summaries that differ on some dates. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 5Clinical Trials Arena (ed.), FDA unveils new pathway to usher bespoke therapies to market (trade press, 13 November 2025; describes the plausible mechanism pathway announced in a journal article by the FDA Commissioner and the CBER Director; secondary report, weak evidence). Clinical Trials Arena, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 28Royal Society (ed.), Statement from the Organising Committee of the Third International Summit on Human Genome Editing (8 March 2023; convened by the Royal Society, the Academy of Medical Sciences, the US National Academies and The World Academy of Sciences). Royal Society, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 32MedTech Dive (ed.), Anne Wojcicki bid to buy 23andMe in bankruptcy (trade press, 17 June 2025; USD 305 million bid against a USD 256 million bid; state objections; secondary report, weak evidence). Industry Dive, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: NPR (ed.), Judge approves sale of 23andMe to a nonprofit led by its founder (30 June 2025), taken from a search-result summary; the page returned a service error. NPR, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 29UK Parliament (ed.), Genetic Technology (Precision Breeding) Act 2023, 2023 c. 6 (contents page read; section texts not read). UK Parliament, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Genomics and Gene Editing (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-GENOMICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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