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Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables16 notesNR-XTECH-GENOMICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Genomics is data infrastructure and a therapeutic frontier
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Individualised editing outpaces delivery systems
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

HLT · Therapy

Evaluable sickle cell patients free of severe crises

97%

29 of 30 patients, 12 months or more.

Reported2024NEJM2

DAT · Reference

Base pairs in the complete T2T-CHM13 sequence

3.055billion

nearly 200 million base pairs new.

Reported2022Science11

DAT · Biobanks

Participants with whole genomes in UK Biobank

490,640participants

released in 2025.

Reported2025Nature16

FIN · Finance

Casgevy revenue in the first quarter

42.9USD million

against 14.2 in the first quarter of 2025; company report.

Reported2026Vertex6

INF · Hardware

Vendor claim: genomes per NovaSeq X Plus run

>128genomes

vendor page, not independent evidence.

Reported2026Illumina14

TRD · Trade

Fall in Illumina instrument sales in China, third quarter

54% fall

year on year; import ban lifted in November 2025.

Reported2025MedTech Dive31

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through genomics, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries genomics risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATWater use of sequencing laboratories and cell-therapy manufacture is not published.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
ENECompute for genomics has a carbon footprint; sequencing and cold-chain energy is unpublished.ENE ↔ INFReported EQL 3
FOOGene-edited plants are regulated in England and the EU; yield and uptake evidence is not bound here.GOV → FOOReported EQL 3
HLTThe core therapeutic coupling: one approved editing product, a case report and safety events.the core systemReported EQL 4
BIOReference genomes and pangenomes describe human variation; ecological applications are not evidenced here.DAT → BIOReported EQL 3
CLIFootprint at scale is not bound; no figure is used.ENE → CLIExpert input EQL 1
INFSequencers, flow cells and cold chains carry the work; throughput claims come from vendors.INF ↔ DATReported EQL 2
FINCasgevy revenue is rising from a small base; access is limited by cost and manufacturing capacity.FIN → HLTReported EQL 3
DATReference genomes and two large biobanks; ancestry balance is uneven.the data carrierReported EQL 4
AICA genome foundation model trained on 9.3 trillion base pairs was reported in a 2025 preprint; clinical use is not evidenced here.DAT → AICReported EQL 2
MINNo documented mineral coupling at baseline; consumables and reagents are not assessed.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
TRDTrade rules changed instrument supply in 2025 and a procurement law followed.TRD → INFReported EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on genomics, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemgenomics couples to health, data, trade and financedelivery outpaces oversightTHIN
GS-01Waterwater use not publishednone documentedTHIN
GS-02Energycompute footprint21load from large computeTHIN
GS-03Foodplant editing rules2936regulatory divergencePARTIAL
GS-04Healthapproved therapy and phase 3 results123safety and accessGOOD
GS-05FinanceCasgevy revenue6payment of one-time therapiesPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentcost barrier in low-income settings8widening gapsTHIN
GS-07Climatefootprint at scale not boundenergy demandTHIN
GS-08Disasterno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-09Infrastructuresequencer and cold-chain needs14single-vendor dependenceTHIN
GS-10Citiesno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-12Earth observationno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitalgenetic data sale in bankruptcy3238data protectionPARTIAL
GS-14PolicyWHO framework and national rules272936uneven oversightPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencestrong peer-reviewed base21112common benchmarksGOOD

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2Frangoul, H. et al., Exagamglogene Autotemcel for Severe Sickle Cell Disease, New England Journal of Medicine 2024 (abstract read through the Europe PMC record; 44 treated, 30 evaluable, 29 free of crises for 12 months or more). Massachusetts Medical Society, Waltham. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 11Nurk, S. et al., The complete sequence of a human genome, Science 2022 (abstract read through the Europe PMC record; 3.055 billion base pairs; nearly 200 million base pairs of new sequence). American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 16UK Biobank Whole-Genome Sequencing Consortium, Whole-genome sequencing of 490,640 UK Biobank participants, Nature 2025 (abstract read through the Europe PMC record). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 6Vertex Pharmaceuticals (ed.), Vertex Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results (company press release read through a wire page; Casgevy revenue USD 42.9 million against USD 14.2 million; pediatric submission completed; company statement, weak evidence). Vertex, Boston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 14Illumina (ed.), NovaSeq X Series product page (vendor claims: 16 to 21 Tb per run for NovaSeq X Plus, more than 128 genomes per run, run time about 14 to 48 hours; vendor evidence, weak). Illumina, San Diego. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 31MedTech Dive (ed.), China to lift Illumina export ban (trade press, November 2025; listing in February 2025, import ban in March 2025, lift on 10 November 2025, instrument sales in China down 54% in the third quarter; secondary report, weak evidence). Industry Dive, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 21Grealey, J. et al., The Carbon Footprint of Bioinformatics, Molecular Biology and Evolution 2022 (abstract read through the Europe PMC record; a software upgrade cut one tool footprint by 73%). Oxford University Press, Oxford. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 29UK Parliament (ed.), Genetic Technology (Precision Breeding) Act 2023, 2023 c. 6 (contents page read; section texts not read). UK Parliament, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2026/1388 on plants obtained by certain new genomic techniques (adopted 17 June 2026, published 26 June 2026, applies from 17 July 2028), taken from search-result summaries that differ on some dates. Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 1US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), FDA approves first gene therapies to treat patients with sickle cell disease (press announcement, 8 December 2023; Casgevy uses CRISPR/Cas9, Lyfgenia a lentiviral vector; patients 12 years and older). FDA, Silver Spring. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 3Locatelli, F. et al., Exagamglogene Autotemcel for Transfusion-Dependent beta-Thalassemia, New England Journal of Medicine 2024 (abstract read through the Europe PMC record; 52 treated, 35 evaluable, 32 transfusion independent). Massachusetts Medical Society, Waltham. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 8Montano-Campos, J.F. et al., Cost-effectiveness of gene therapy for sickle cell disease in Uganda: tailoring high-income evidence to Uganda context, Gene Therapy 2026 (abstract read through the Europe PMC record). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 32MedTech Dive (ed.), Anne Wojcicki bid to buy 23andMe in bankruptcy (trade press, 17 June 2025; USD 305 million bid against a USD 256 million bid; state objections; secondary report, weak evidence). Industry Dive, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: NPR (ed.), Judge approves sale of 23andMe to a nonprofit led by its founder (30 June 2025), taken from a search-result summary; the page returned a service error. NPR, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 27World Health Organization (ed.), Human genome editing: a framework for governance (technical document, 12 July 2021; companion recommendations published separately and not read). WHO, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 12Liao, W.-W. et al. (Human Pangenome Reference Consortium), A draft human pangenome reference, Nature 2023 (abstract read through the Europe PMC record; 47 phased diploid assemblies; 119 million base pairs added). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Genomics and Gene Editing (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-GENOMICS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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