Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

  • Reports
  • Baseline Edition 2026
  • Complete edition

Exponential Technology Report 2026: Fusion and Frontier Energy

Edition home

Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.

ReportsXT-14

Exponential Technology

Fusion and Frontier Energy 2026

Baseline Edition 2026NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Imprint

Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto
Report number
NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE
Evidence close
30 September 2026, cut DC-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Status
Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
DOI and UNI
Issued at deposit
Licence
CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence
Cite as
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Exponential Technology Report 2026: Fusion and Frontier Energy (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/xt-14/

Contents

  1. ·

    Executive summary

  2. 1

    Chapter 1. Fusion is an experiment record and a fuel-cycle question

  3. 2

    Chapter 2. Key findings

  4. 3

    Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline

  5. 4

    Chapter 4. Risks and capability

  6. 5

    Chapter 5. First-plant fuel and licence set the pace

  7. 6

    Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks

  8. 7

    Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda

  9. 8

    Chapter 8. Systems in depth

  10. A

    Annex A. Methodology

  11. B

    Annex B. Data appendix

  12. C

    Annex C. References and record

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

7 min read1 figure0 tables15 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

S.1Abstract

Fusion energy matters to the Nexus programme as a possible future power source and as a present infrastructure question. The experimental record is strong and narrow. The National Ignition Facility produced 8.6 MJ of fusion energy from 2.08 MJ of laser energy delivered to the target on 7 April 2025, a target gain of 4.135. The JET tokamak produced 69 MJ in about 5 seconds in its final deuterium-tritium campaign4. WEST held a plasma for 1,337 seconds in February 20251, and EAST held a high-confinement plasma for 1,066 seconds in January 20252. No source read reports electricity delivered to a grid from fusion. ITER now plans deuterium-tritium operation in 20397. The fuel cycle is the least measured part. Tritium is available commercially from one source, heavy-water reactors, and one analysis finds that the amount free for fusion in 2055 ranges from 0 to 27.7 kg20. Lithium-6, needed for breeding, has effectively no supply today according to one company presentation21. Private investment reached USD 4.48 billion in the 12 months to July 2026, in a survey of 56 companies10. Public programmes expanded in the UK and Germany1516. The US regulator proposed in February 2026 to license fusion machines under the byproduct material framework14. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It forecasts no plant date and ranks no country or company.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the fusion baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. Yes at one facility, counting laser energy on target only: 8.6 MJ from 2.08 MJ in 2025.56

    Has fusion produced more energy than the laser put in?Reported

  2. WEST held a plasma for 1,337 seconds in 2025; EAST held 1,066 seconds in high confinement.12

    What is the longest plasma?Reported

  3. The plan is 2039, with research operation from 2034.7

    When will ITER burn deuterium and tritium?Reported

  4. No source read reports it. Companies state plans for 2028 and the early 2030s.2423

    Does any fusion plant deliver electricity?Reported

  5. Tritium free for fusion in 2055 ranges from 0 to 27.7 kg; lithium-6 supply is effectively zero today.2021

    Is there enough fuel?Reported

  6. USD 4.48 billion of private funding in the 12 months to July 2026, in a survey.10

    What does the money look like?Reported

  7. A US rule is proposed to license fusion machines as byproduct material users.14

    What does regulation look like?Reported

  8. First-plant fuel: start-up tritium and blanket demonstration. SCN-XT14-FUE-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

On 7 April 2025 the National Ignition Facility produced 8.6 MJ of fusion energy from 2.08 MJ of laser energy delivered to the target, a target gain of 4.13.

Figure S.1Energy in and out, NIF shot of 7 April 2025 (MJ)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Laser energy delivered to the target2.08
Fusion energy produced8.6

Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory annual report5. Laser energy on target only; facility electricity is not included.

Fusion energy out exceeded laser energy on target by a factor of 4.13. The laboratory lowered the maximum shot energy from 2.2 MJ to 1.9 MJ during refurbishment and plans an upgrade to 2.6 MJ, at which yields above 30 MJ become possible5. The first ignition shot, on 5 December 2022, produced 3.15 MJ from 2.05 MJ6.

S.4At a glance

4.13times

NIF target gain, 20255

1,337seconds

WEST plasma, 20251

4.48USD billion

private funding, 12 months to July 202610

2039year

ITER deuterium-tritium plan7

>160devices

operational, under construction or planned9

>2.5GBP billion

UK funding over five years15

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading fusion as an experiment record and a fuel-cycle question.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the fusion story arrives as a headline about a record or a start-up.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Private funding is growing, public programmes are expanding and plant dates are stated for the 2030s.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Fusion is well described by single results and thinly measured as a system.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of fusion and frontier energy as infrastructure and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a forecast of when any plant will deliver electricity, a technology ranking, an endorsement of any company or an assessment of any programme. Licensing, funding and fuel allocation are decisions of competent authorities.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 fusion edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 4World Nuclear News (ed.), New world record set in JET final fusion experiments (news report of 9 February 2024; 69 MJ over 5 seconds from 0.2 milligrams of fuel; 59 MJ in 2021). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 1CEA IRFM (ed.), WEST sets a new plasma duration record (news page; plasma 61299, 12 February 2025, 1,337 seconds, 2 MW lower hybrid heating, 2.6 GJ injected and extracted). Commissariat a l energie atomique et aux energies alternatives, Cadarache. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 2Physics World (ed.), China experimental advanced superconducting tokamak smashes fusion confinement record (news report; EAST 1066 seconds in high confinement, January 2025; earlier 403 seconds in 2023). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 7ITER Organization (ed.), ITER in a few lines (project page; baseline reviewed by the ITER Council in November 2024; start of research operation 2034; deuterium-tritium operation 2039; Q of 10, 500 MW from 50 MW). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 20Coleman, M. and Kovari, M., Global supply of tritium for fusion R and D from heavy water reactors (conference paper, UK Atomic Energy Authority; abstract and introduction read from the PDF; 0 to 27.7 kg available in 2055 across scenarios; 7.4 kg for a demonstration reactor in 2055 in one case). UK Atomic Energy Authority, Abingdon. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 21Pearson, R.J., The availability and supply of critical natural resources for the realisation of a fusion pilot plant: fuels for fusion (presentation to the US Department of Energy fusion workshop, 1 to 3 June 2022; lithium-6 is 7.4% of natural lithium; blankets need 30 to 90%; supply effectively zero; a company presentation, weak evidence). Kyoto Fusioneering, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 15UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), A new energy revolution: the UK plan for delivering fusion energy (policy paper of 16 March 2026; over GBP 2.5 billion over five years; GBP 1.3 billion for STEP and UK Fusion Energy; the first 100,000 of 127,790 characters were read). UK Government, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 16Clean Energy Wire (ed.), German government pledges more than EUR 2 bln for nuclear fusion (news report of 2 October 2025; cabinet plan of 1 October 2025). Clean Energy Wire, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 6Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), NIF fusion ignition shot hailed as historic scientific feat (news page; shot of 5 December 2022, 3.15 MJ from 2.05 MJ; announced 13 December 2022). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 24Helion (ed.), Orion, the first fusion power plant (company page; Malaga, Washington; construction from 2025; initial operations stated for 2028; Microsoft agreement for 50 MW; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 23Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Eni (eds.), Eni and CFS sign over USD 1 billion power purchase agreement (joint company release of 22 September 2025; 400 MW ARC plant in Chesterfield County, Virginia; grid connection in the early 2030s; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 9World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion entering implementation phase, says Grossi (report on the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2025; more than 160 devices; private investment above USD 10 billion; October 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Fusion is an experiment record and a fuel-cycle question

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.

7 min read2 figures1 table13 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is fusion risk concentrated?
  • Which couplings carry fusion shocks into other systems?
  • Which fusion capabilities hold under compound stress?
  • What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five footprint and governance chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Fusion is usually discussed as a race to a first power plant. The 2026 evidence reads it as two things: a set of strong experimental records at research devices, and a set of infrastructure questions about fuel, materials, licensing and money that decide whether plants follow52014.

The experimental evidence is strong and narrow. NIF produced 8.6 MJ from 2.08 MJ of laser energy on target5. JET produced 69 MJ over about 5 seconds4. WEST held a plasma for 1,337 seconds1. Each is a different quantity on a different device, and none is electricity to a grid.

The schedule evidence is plain. ITER plans deuterium-tritium operation in 20397. Companies state plants for 2028 and the early 2030s2423. The US roadmap targets power by the mid-2030s12. These are plans, and the baselines of public projects have moved before25.

The fuel cycle is the least measured part. Tritium is available from heavy-water reactors only, and the amount free for fusion in 2055 ranges from 0 to 27.7 kg20. Lithium-6 supply is effectively zero according to one presentation21. Licensing is moving: the US rule is proposed14.

Figure 1.1How long have fusion plasmas been held? Seconds

Plasma duration in tokamaks rose from 403 seconds to 1,337 seconds in two years. Duration is not fusion power: WEST used 2 MW of heating in hydrogen, and the devices differ in regime and size12.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
EAST, high confinement, 2023403
EAST, high confinement, January 20251066
WEST, February 20251337

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.

Figure ID FIG-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003

1,337seconds

WEST, 20251

1,066seconds

EAST, high confinement, 20252

403seconds

EAST, 20232

2.6GJ

energy injected and extracted in the WEST pulse1

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The fusion-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their fusion content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·WEAK
plant cooling
WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
ENE EnergyWEAK
cooling load
·WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
FOO FoodWEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
·WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce
WEAK
workforce
WEAK
no documented link
·WEAK
no documented link
BIO BiodiversityWEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
WEAK
no documented link
·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    MIN → INF

    A tritium or lithium-6 shortfall delays first plants.

    Inferred tritium and lithium analyses2021

  2. 02

    FIN → INF

    Private and public funding pay for devices and test facilities.

    Reported USD 4.48 billion, 202610

  3. 03

    GOV → INF

    Licensing rules set the route and timing for first plants.

    Reported US proposed rule14

  4. 04

    INF → ENE

    A successful plant would add firm power; none is documented.

    Inferred company statements2423

  5. 05

    ENE → INF

    Facility electricity limits what a shot or pulse means.

    Inferred NIF and WEST reports51

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 20Coleman, M. and Kovari, M., Global supply of tritium for fusion R and D from heavy water reactors (conference paper, UK Atomic Energy Authority; abstract and introduction read from the PDF; 0 to 27.7 kg available in 2055 across scenarios; 7.4 kg for a demonstration reactor in 2055 in one case). UK Atomic Energy Authority, Abingdon. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 4World Nuclear News (ed.), New world record set in JET final fusion experiments (news report of 9 February 2024; 69 MJ over 5 seconds from 0.2 milligrams of fuel; 59 MJ in 2021). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 1CEA IRFM (ed.), WEST sets a new plasma duration record (news page; plasma 61299, 12 February 2025, 1,337 seconds, 2 MW lower hybrid heating, 2.6 GJ injected and extracted). Commissariat a l energie atomique et aux energies alternatives, Cadarache. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 7ITER Organization (ed.), ITER in a few lines (project page; baseline reviewed by the ITER Council in November 2024; start of research operation 2034; deuterium-tritium operation 2039; Q of 10, 500 MW from 50 MW). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 24Helion (ed.), Orion, the first fusion power plant (company page; Malaga, Washington; construction from 2025; initial operations stated for 2028; Microsoft agreement for 50 MW; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 23Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Eni (eds.), Eni and CFS sign over USD 1 billion power purchase agreement (joint company release of 22 September 2025; 400 MW ARC plant in Chesterfield County, Virginia; grid connection in the early 2030s; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 12US Department of Energy (ed.), Energy Department announces Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap to accelerate commercial fusion power (announcement of 16 October 2025; Build-Innovate-Grow; power on the grid by the mid-2030s; no funding commitment). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 25Physics Today (ed.), ITER costs are pinned down with caveats (news report on the 2016 baseline review; review committee chaired by A. Wagner; estimate without contingencies). American Institute of Physics, College Park. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 21Pearson, R.J., The availability and supply of critical natural resources for the realisation of a fusion pilot plant: fuels for fusion (presentation to the US Department of Energy fusion workshop, 1 to 3 June 2022; lithium-6 is 7.4% of natural lithium; blankets need 30 to 90%; supply effectively zero; a company presentation, weak evidence). Kyoto Fusioneering, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 2Physics World (ed.), China experimental advanced superconducting tokamak smashes fusion confinement record (news report; EAST 1066 seconds in high confinement, January 2025; earlier 403 seconds in 2023). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the fusion baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

8 min read1 figure0 tables23 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

On 7 April 2025 the National Ignition Facility produced 8.6 MJ of fusion energy from 2.08 MJ of laser energy delivered to the target, a target gain of 4.13.

Figure 2.1Energy in and out, NIF shot of 7 April 2025 (MJ)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Laser energy delivered to the target2.08
Fusion energy produced8.6

Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory annual report5. Laser energy on target only; facility electricity is not included.

Implication

Fusion energy out exceeded laser energy on target by a factor of 4.13. The laboratory lowered the maximum shot energy from 2.2 MJ to 1.9 MJ during refurbishment and plans an upgrade to 2.6 MJ, at which yields above 30 MJ become possible5. The first ignition shot, on 5 December 2022, produced 3.15 MJ from 2.05 MJ6.

What would move it

Refurbishment, the yield upgrade, repeat shots and a facility electricity figure would each move this finding.

2.2Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

    On 7 April 2025 the National Ignition Facility produced 8.6 MJ of fusion energy from 2.08 MJ of laser energy delivered to the target, a target gain of 4.13; the first ignition shot of December 2022 produced 3.15 MJ from 2.05 MJ.56

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

    In its final deuterium-tritium campaign the JET tokamak produced 69 MJ over about 5 seconds from 0.2 milligrams of fuel, up from 59 MJ in 2021; the result was announced on 9 February 2024.4

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-003

    WEST held a hydrogen plasma for 1,337 seconds on 12 February 2025 with 2 MW of heating, and EAST held a high-confinement plasma for 1,066 seconds in January 2025.12

  4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-004

    Wendelstein 7-X set a record for the triple product in long plasma pulses, held for 43 seconds, in a campaign that ended on 22 May 2025; tokamaks remain the record holders for short pulses.3

  5. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-005

    ITER plans deuterium-tritium operation in 2039, four years later than the 2016 reference plan, with research operation from 2034 and a target of 500 MW of fusion power from 50 MW of heating.725

2.3Minerals

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-006

    Heavy-water reactors are the only commercial source of tritium; one analysis finds the amount free for fusion in 2055 ranges from 0 to 27.7 kg across scenarios, and policy commentary puts civilian stocks near 25 kg in 2024.2022

  2. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-007

    Breeding blankets need lithium enriched to 30 to 90% lithium-6, natural lithium holds 7.4%, and one company presentation states that current supply of lithium-6 is effectively zero.2133

2.4Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-008

    Private fusion funding was USD 4.48 billion in the 12 months to July 2026 and USD 14.24 billion cumulative over six years, in a survey of 56 companies; the 2025 survey reported USD 2.64 billion and USD 9.766 billion across 53 companies.1011

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009

    Public programmes expanded: the UK strategy of March 2026 states over GBP 2.5 billion over five years, Germany states over EUR 2 billion by 2029, and China Fusion Energy Co. was set up with 15 billion yuan of registered capital.15161719

  3. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

    Two companies state plans for first plants: Helion states initial operations in 2028 at a site in Washington State, and Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Eni state a 400 MW plant in Virginia connecting in the early 2030s. These are company statements, not results.232428

2.5Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission proposed on 26 February 2026 to license fusion machines under the byproduct material framework of 10 CFR part 30, with comments due on 27 May 2026; the Department of Energy roadmap of 16 October 2025 targets power on the grid by the mid-2030s.1412

2.6Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is first-plant fuel: start-up tritium and blanket demonstration set the pace while plant dates are stated in the 2030s. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), NIF fusion ignition shot hailed as historic scientific feat (news page; shot of 5 December 2022, 3.15 MJ from 2.05 MJ; announced 13 December 2022). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 4World Nuclear News (ed.), New world record set in JET final fusion experiments (news report of 9 February 2024; 69 MJ over 5 seconds from 0.2 milligrams of fuel; 59 MJ in 2021). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 1CEA IRFM (ed.), WEST sets a new plasma duration record (news page; plasma 61299, 12 February 2025, 1,337 seconds, 2 MW lower hybrid heating, 2.6 GJ injected and extracted). Commissariat a l energie atomique et aux energies alternatives, Cadarache. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 2Physics World (ed.), China experimental advanced superconducting tokamak smashes fusion confinement record (news report; EAST 1066 seconds in high confinement, January 2025; earlier 403 seconds in 2023). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 3World Nuclear News (ed.), Wendelstein 7-X sets new fusion performance records (news report of 4 June 2025; long-pulse triple product held for 43 seconds; announcement by the research institute and EUROfusion; peer-reviewed article not yet published at announcement). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 7ITER Organization (ed.), ITER in a few lines (project page; baseline reviewed by the ITER Council in November 2024; start of research operation 2034; deuterium-tritium operation 2039; Q of 10, 500 MW from 50 MW). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 25Physics Today (ed.), ITER costs are pinned down with caveats (news report on the 2016 baseline review; review committee chaired by A. Wagner; estimate without contingencies). American Institute of Physics, College Park. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 20Coleman, M. and Kovari, M., Global supply of tritium for fusion R and D from heavy water reactors (conference paper, UK Atomic Energy Authority; abstract and introduction read from the PDF; 0 to 27.7 kg available in 2055 across scenarios; 7.4 kg for a demonstration reactor in 2055 in one case). UK Atomic Energy Authority, Abingdon. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 22Theiding, T., Tritium: a few kilograms can make or break nuclear fusion (policy blog post of 6 March 2025; about 25 kg of civilian tritium in 2024; a student fellow commentary, weak evidence). Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 21Pearson, R.J., The availability and supply of critical natural resources for the realisation of a fusion pilot plant: fuels for fusion (presentation to the US Department of Energy fusion workshop, 1 to 3 June 2022; lithium-6 is 7.4% of natural lithium; blankets need 30 to 90%; supply effectively zero; a company presentation, weak evidence). Kyoto Fusioneering, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ward, P. and colleagues, Lithium enrichment threatens to curb fusion deployment, arXiv:2605.04707, 2026, taken from search-result summaries. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 11World Nuclear News (ed.), Access to funding remains a major issue for fusion, says FIA (report on the Fusion Industry Association 2025 survey of 23 July 2025: USD 2.64 billion, USD 9.766 billion cumulative, 53 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 15UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), A new energy revolution: the UK plan for delivering fusion energy (policy paper of 16 March 2026; over GBP 2.5 billion over five years; GBP 1.3 billion for STEP and UK Fusion Energy; the first 100,000 of 127,790 characters were read). UK Government, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 16Clean Energy Wire (ed.), German government pledges more than EUR 2 bln for nuclear fusion (news report of 2 October 2025; cabinet plan of 1 October 2025). Clean Energy Wire, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 17World Nuclear News (ed.), Germany boosts funding for fusion research (news report; Fusion Action Plan of October 2025; more than EUR 2 billion by 2029; about EUR 1.7 billion public research funding and up to EUR 755 million from an infrastructure fund). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 19American Nuclear Society (ed.), China launches fusion-focused company (news report of 30 July 2025; China Fusion Energy Co., 15 billion yuan registered capital, subsidiary of a state nuclear group; BEST tokamak in Hefei hoped for 2027). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 23Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Eni (eds.), Eni and CFS sign over USD 1 billion power purchase agreement (joint company release of 22 September 2025; 400 MW ARC plant in Chesterfield County, Virginia; grid connection in the early 2030s; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 24Helion (ed.), Orion, the first fusion power plant (company page; Malaga, Washington; construction from 2025; initial operations stated for 2028; Microsoft agreement for 50 MW; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Helion (ed.), Helion secures land and begins building on the site of the first fusion power plant, release of 30 July 2025 (the release page returned a block) and the 2023 Microsoft agreement, taken from search-result summaries. Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 12US Department of Energy (ed.), Energy Department announces Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap to accelerate commercial fusion power (announcement of 16 October 2025; Build-Innovate-Grow; power on the grid by the mid-2030s; no funding commitment). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables11 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

INF · Inertial

Record target gain at the National Ignition Facility

4.13times

8.6 MJ from 2.08 MJ of laser energy on target.

Reported2025LLNL5

INF · Magnetic

Longest plasma in the WEST tokamak

1,337seconds

hydrogen plasma, 2 MW of heating; not a fusion power result.

Reported2025CEA1

FIN · Finance

Private fusion funding in the 12 months to July 2026

4.48USD billion

survey of 56 companies; self-reported.

Reported2026FIA via news10

MIN · Fuel

Civilian tritium worldwide, one estimate

≈25kg

policy commentary, mostly held by one country; weak evidence.

Reported2024Kleinman22

SYS · Cross-system

Start of deuterium-tritium operation at ITER

2039year

a plan, four years later than the 2016 reference plan.

Reported2039 planITER7

GOV · Public funding

UK government fusion funding over five years

>2.5GBP billion

strategy of March 2026; 1.3 billion for STEP and UK Fusion Energy.

Reported2026UK strategy15

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through fusion, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries fusion risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATPlant cooling-water use is not published for any fusion plant design read.ENE → WATExpert input EQL 1
ENENo source read reports electricity delivered from fusion; experiments report energy on target or injected.the core systemReported EQL 4
FOONo documented coupling at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
HLTNo documented coupling at baseline; tritium handling is an occupational question not evidenced here.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
BIONo documented coupling at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
CLIFusion would matter for climate only at scale; no figure is bound.ENE → CLIExpert input EQL 1
INFThe core system: records at research devices; ITER deuterium-tritium plan for 2039; plants stated for the 2030s.the core systemReported EQL 4
FINUSD 4.48 billion of private funding in the 12 months to July 2026; public programmes expanded.FIN → INFReported EQL 3
DATFusion couples to data only through diagnostics and control; no figure is bound.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
AICNo documented coupling to compute platforms at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
MINTritium comes from heavy-water reactors; lithium-6 supply is effectively zero according to one presentation.MIN → INFReported EQL 3
TRDExport controls and transport rules apply to tritium and enriched lithium.INF ↔ TRDInferred EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on fusion, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemfusion couples to energy, minerals and materialsfirst-plant fuelTHIN
GS-01Waterplant cooling-water use not publishedsitingTHIN
GS-02Energyno electricity delivered from fusion in sources read2423plant dates moveTHIN
GS-03Foodno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-04Healthno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-05FinanceUSD 4.48 billion of private funding10funding concentrationPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentaccess to technology and skillswidening gapsTHIN
GS-07Climatecontribution at scale not boundplant timingTHIN
GS-08Disasterno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-09Infrastructuretritium handling and plant sitessingle-site dependenceTHIN
GS-10Citiesno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-12Earth observationno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitalno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-14PolicyUS rule proposed; UK and German plans141516rules not finalPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencestrong laboratory record145common benchmarksGOOD

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 1CEA IRFM (ed.), WEST sets a new plasma duration record (news page; plasma 61299, 12 February 2025, 1,337 seconds, 2 MW lower hybrid heating, 2.6 GJ injected and extracted). Commissariat a l energie atomique et aux energies alternatives, Cadarache. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 22Theiding, T., Tritium: a few kilograms can make or break nuclear fusion (policy blog post of 6 March 2025; about 25 kg of civilian tritium in 2024; a student fellow commentary, weak evidence). Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 7ITER Organization (ed.), ITER in a few lines (project page; baseline reviewed by the ITER Council in November 2024; start of research operation 2034; deuterium-tritium operation 2039; Q of 10, 500 MW from 50 MW). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 15UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), A new energy revolution: the UK plan for delivering fusion energy (policy paper of 16 March 2026; over GBP 2.5 billion over five years; GBP 1.3 billion for STEP and UK Fusion Energy; the first 100,000 of 127,790 characters were read). UK Government, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 24Helion (ed.), Orion, the first fusion power plant (company page; Malaga, Washington; construction from 2025; initial operations stated for 2028; Microsoft agreement for 50 MW; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 23Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Eni (eds.), Eni and CFS sign over USD 1 billion power purchase agreement (joint company release of 22 September 2025; 400 MW ARC plant in Chesterfield County, Virginia; grid connection in the early 2030s; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 16Clean Energy Wire (ed.), German government pledges more than EUR 2 bln for nuclear fusion (news report of 2 October 2025; cabinet plan of 1 October 2025). Clean Energy Wire, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 4World Nuclear News (ed.), New world record set in JET final fusion experiments (news report of 9 February 2024; 69 MJ over 5 seconds from 0.2 milligrams of fuel; 59 MJ in 2021). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Risks and capability

Four fusion risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

6 min read0 figures1 table19 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT14-FUE-001

    Tritium start-up supply

    Driver
    one commercial source and scenario-dependent supply2022
    Exposure
    first plants and research devices using deuterium-tritium fuel
    Vulnerability
    decay of stored tritium; no large reserves; transfer rules
    Capacity
    breeding blanket development; purchase agreements21
    Cascade
    MIN → INF
    Horizon
    5 to 10 years
  2. InferredEQL 2RSK-XT14-LIT-002

    Lithium-6 enrichment and blanket demonstration

    Driver
    blankets need 30 to 90% lithium-6 and supply is effectively zero2133
    Exposure
    breeding blanket designs
    Vulnerability
    enrichment routes are costly or hazardous in the sources read
    Capacity
    natural-lithium blanket concepts; new enrichment research21
    Cascade
    MIN → INF
    Horizon
    5 to 10 years
  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT14-SCH-003

    Schedule slippage in large public projects

    Driver
    ITER baselines have moved more than once725
    Exposure
    research plans and fuel demand schedules
    Vulnerability
    in-kind supply and fixed dates
    Capacity
    new baseline and staged operation7
    Cascade
    INF → FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years
  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT14-GOV-004

    Licensing and waste rules not final

    Driver
    proposed US rule; UK and EU instruments planned141518
    Exposure
    first-plant siting and financing
    Vulnerability
    divergent national rules; waste classification not settled
    Capacity
    proposed technology-inclusive framework14
    Cascade
    GOV → INF, FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for fusion at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationLISTEDsafety case and licensing rules are proposed or in preparation14
Monitoring and observationLISTEDno common tracker of performance claims or fuel inventories
Early warningLISTEDschedule and supply watching is not consolidated
Preparedness and planningEXISTSUS roadmap, UK strategy and German plan published121516
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDtritium and lithium-6 reserves are not documented21
ResponseLISTEDnot applicable at baseline; no plant in operation
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDnot applicable at baseline
RecoveryLISTEDnot applicable at baseline
AdaptationLISTEDstaged project plans exist7; no tested adaptation
Social protectionLISTEDnot applicable at baseline
Finance and insuranceEXISTSprivate funding large and public programmes growing1015
Institutional coordinationEXISTSITER, the IAEA group and national strategies7918
Technical infrastructureEXISTSresearch devices operating at several sites145
WorkforceLISTEDskills programmes announced15; no figure bound
Research capacityADEQUATEstrong laboratory and journal base5353646
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 20Coleman, M. and Kovari, M., Global supply of tritium for fusion R and D from heavy water reactors (conference paper, UK Atomic Energy Authority; abstract and introduction read from the PDF; 0 to 27.7 kg available in 2055 across scenarios; 7.4 kg for a demonstration reactor in 2055 in one case). UK Atomic Energy Authority, Abingdon. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 22Theiding, T., Tritium: a few kilograms can make or break nuclear fusion (policy blog post of 6 March 2025; about 25 kg of civilian tritium in 2024; a student fellow commentary, weak evidence). Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 21Pearson, R.J., The availability and supply of critical natural resources for the realisation of a fusion pilot plant: fuels for fusion (presentation to the US Department of Energy fusion workshop, 1 to 3 June 2022; lithium-6 is 7.4% of natural lithium; blankets need 30 to 90%; supply effectively zero; a company presentation, weak evidence). Kyoto Fusioneering, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ward, P. and colleagues, Lithium enrichment threatens to curb fusion deployment, arXiv:2605.04707, 2026, taken from search-result summaries. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 7ITER Organization (ed.), ITER in a few lines (project page; baseline reviewed by the ITER Council in November 2024; start of research operation 2034; deuterium-tritium operation 2039; Q of 10, 500 MW from 50 MW). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 25Physics Today (ed.), ITER costs are pinned down with caveats (news report on the 2016 baseline review; review committee chaired by A. Wagner; estimate without contingencies). American Institute of Physics, College Park. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 15UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), A new energy revolution: the UK plan for delivering fusion energy (policy paper of 16 March 2026; over GBP 2.5 billion over five years; GBP 1.3 billion for STEP and UK Fusion Energy; the first 100,000 of 127,790 characters were read). UK Government, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 18European Commission (ed.), Commission launches call for evidence to support first-ever EU-wide fusion strategy (news item of 6 June 2025; call open to 1 July 2025; strategy then programmed for the end of 2025). Directorate-General for Energy, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 12US Department of Energy (ed.), Energy Department announces Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap to accelerate commercial fusion power (announcement of 16 October 2025; Build-Innovate-Grow; power on the grid by the mid-2030s; no funding commitment). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 16Clean Energy Wire (ed.), German government pledges more than EUR 2 bln for nuclear fusion (news report of 2 October 2025; cabinet plan of 1 October 2025). Clean Energy Wire, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 9World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion entering implementation phase, says Grossi (report on the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2025; more than 160 devices; private investment above USD 10 billion; October 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 1CEA IRFM (ed.), WEST sets a new plasma duration record (news page; plasma 61299, 12 February 2025, 1,337 seconds, 2 MW lower hybrid heating, 2.6 GJ injected and extracted). Commissariat a l energie atomique et aux energies alternatives, Cadarache. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 4World Nuclear News (ed.), New world record set in JET final fusion experiments (news report of 9 February 2024; 69 MJ over 5 seconds from 0.2 milligrams of fuel; 59 MJ in 2021). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zylstra, A.B. et al., Burning plasma achieved in inertial fusion, Nature 601, 542 to 548, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Abu-Shawareb, H. et al., Achievement of target gain larger than unity in an inertial fusion experiment, Physical Review Letters 132, 065102, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Maslov, M. et al., JET D-T scientific programme, Nuclear Fusion 63, 112002, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

First-plant fuel and licence set the pace

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables3 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-XT14-FUE-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
first plants are announced for the 2030s while start-up tritium, lithium-6 and licensing remain open
Analogues
the slips in ITER baselines; the tritium supply range in 205572025
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    MIN → INF

    start-up tritium for a first plant proves hard to contract

    2018

  2. 2

    MIN → INF

    blanket designs wait for enriched lithium

    2022

  3. 3

    GOV → FIN

    licence rules reach final form later than financing plans assume

    2026

  4. 4

    INF → FIN

    test results arrive but plant dates move to the later 2030s

    2026

  5. 5

    FIN → INF

    funding concentrates in a few devices and test facilities

    2026

  6. 6

    GOV → INF

    national plans diverge on siting and waste

    2026

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-XT14-FUE-01 would travel through Fusion and Frontier Energy’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Minerals to infrastructureStart-up tritium for a first plant proves hard to contract. Analogue or source: 2018.Edition XT-14, scenario SCN-XT14-FUE-01, step 1
02 Minerals to infrastructureBlanket designs wait for enriched lithium. Analogue or source: 2022.Edition XT-14, scenario SCN-XT14-FUE-01, step 2
03 Governance to financeLicence rules reach final form later than financing plans assume. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-14, scenario SCN-XT14-FUE-01, step 3
04 Infrastructure to financeTest results arrive but plant dates move to the later 2030s. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-14, scenario SCN-XT14-FUE-01, step 4
05 Finance to infrastructureFunding concentrates in a few devices and test facilities. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-14, scenario SCN-XT14-FUE-01, step 5
06 Governance to infrastructureNational plans diverge on siting and waste. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-14, scenario SCN-XT14-FUE-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Fusion and Frontier Energy 2026, scenario SCN-XT14-FUE-01 (2026); Fusion and Frontier Energy 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 7ITER Organization (ed.), ITER in a few lines (project page; baseline reviewed by the ITER Council in November 2024; start of research operation 2034; deuterium-tritium operation 2039; Q of 10, 500 MW from 50 MW). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 20Coleman, M. and Kovari, M., Global supply of tritium for fusion R and D from heavy water reactors (conference paper, UK Atomic Energy Authority; abstract and introduction read from the PDF; 0 to 27.7 kg available in 2055 across scenarios; 7.4 kg for a demonstration reactor in 2055 in one case). UK Atomic Energy Authority, Abingdon. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 25Physics Today (ed.), ITER costs are pinned down with caveats (news report on the 2016 baseline review; review committee chaired by A. Wagner; estimate without contingencies). American Institute of Physics, College Park. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Readings from the other desks

The fusion baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

15 min read0 figures8 tables37 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

DeskEditionStateIdentifier
GCRI Systems EvidenceNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
GRF Public DeliberationOutside this desk’s remitNot in remit
GRA Capital ReadinessOutside this desk’s remitNot in remit
Standards ProgressNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementOutside this desk’s remitNot in remit

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading fusion as an experiment record and a fuel-cycle question. Records are strong at research devices, no plant delivers electricity, and the fuel and licensing evidence is thin. Evidence is strongest for single experiments and weakest for fuel, materials and plant performance.

INF-001 · INF-003 · MIN-006 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the fusion story arrives as a headline about a record or a start-up. The baseline asks that public debate separate laboratory results, plans and company statements, and keep the fuel question in view.

INF-001 · INF-005 · FIN-011

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Private funding is growing, public programmes are expanding and plant dates are stated for the 2030s1015. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-008 · FIN-009 · FIN-011

NEXUS

Synthesis

Fusion is well described by single results and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind fuel supply, publish a comparable performance basis and test the first-plant fuel pathway before plant dates arrive.

SYS-012 · F-01 · F-04

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for fusion. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
QuarterEditionQuestionBoundary
Q1State and AgendaWhat matters this year, and what is the starting position?observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2Evidence and BuildWhat new evidence and capability exist?a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3Stress Test and ReadinessWhat do scenarios and tests show?simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4Annual Synthesis and RenewalWhat changed in the year, and what renews?release follows review, not event publicity deadlines
Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or bodyRoleContribution route
GCRI CanadaLead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standardspreparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methodsStandards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academylearning pathways tied to the agenda questionsAcademy gateway · learning by review
Nexus Standards and Academytechnology chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, NXS standards, RA capabilitytechnology editorial board

Standards drafts used in this edition

  • Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
  • Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
  • Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

  • Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
  • Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
  • Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Fusion energy out has exceeded laser energy on target, and plasmas have been held for more than twenty minutes. Neither is electricity to a grid. Keeping the two apart avoids both hype and dismissal.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Records are not plants

A laboratory record, a project baseline and a company announcement carry different weight. This edition labels each, and asks for a common basis before gain and duration are compared.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Separate results, plans and statements

Tritium and enriched lithium are rarely counted. A published inventory and demand table would show whether first plants are limited by physics, fuel or money.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

The fuel cycle is the blind spot

The US has proposed a licensing framework, the UK and Germany have published plans, and the EU is preparing a strategy. Final rules decide siting, waste and finance.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Rules are arriving

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 fusion readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.32027 fusion readiness pack
ItemRegisterState at baselineFirst 2027 entry
E1Fusion risk state deltabaseline set by this editionchanges against the baseline
E2WEFH+B state deltafive global system readings setindicator updates and freshness
E3Agenda and Portfolio movementeight agenda items · 6 proposed objectsadmission decisions
E4Federation delivery registernational chapters in preparationnational chapters
E5Consortium capability registernational consortia formingfirst contributions
E6Leadership questions and challengesnone yetfirst challenge log
E7Foundry technical statenational environments preparedfirst federation cut
E8Publication candidatestwelve findings carried forwardPUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9Universe readinessone candidate missionadmission and role spine
E10Correction registernonefirst federation-wide cycle

Publication dispositions

  • Publish
  • Hold
  • Needs evidence
  • Restricted
  • Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

  • IN FORCE
  • PUBLISHED
  • DRAFT
  • PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
InstrumentBodyScopeStatusRelevance
ADVANCE Act of 2024, fusion machine definition14US CongressUSIN FORCEdefinition
Proposed rule on fusion machines, 10 CFR part 3014US NRCUSPROPOSED FEBRUARY 2026licensing
Draft guidance NUREG-1556 Volume 2214US NRCUSDRAFTlicence applications
Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap12US Department of EnergyUSPUBLISHED OCTOBER 2025national plan
UK fusion strategy15UK GovernmentUKPUBLISHED MARCH 2026funding and delivery
Draft National Policy Statement EN-815UK GovernmentUKPLANNED SUMMER 2026planning
Fusion Action Plan1617German federal governmentGermanyPUBLISHED OCTOBER 2025funding and rules
EU fusion strategy18European CommissionEUIN PREPARATIONstrategy
National Strategy for Fusion Energy44Cabinet Office of JapanJapanPUBLISHED 2023national plan
World Fusion Energy Group9IAEAglobalMINISTERIAL MEETING OCTOBER 2025coordination

Changed since 2024

  • The IAEA published World Fusion Outlook 2025 in October 202598
  • The German cabinet adopted the Fusion Action Plan on 1 October 202516
  • The US NRC proposed its fusion rule on 26 February 202614

To watch in 2027

  • Final text of the US rule on fusion machines14
  • The EU fusion strategy18
  • The UK draft National Policy Statement for fusion15

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers fusion assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question
What does the published evidence establish about fusion and frontier energy as infrastructure and its couplings?
Sources searched
peer-reviewed journals and preprints; laboratory and project pages; strategies and rules; surveys and fuel-supply analyses
Window
releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection
sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step
systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
Table 6.5Peer-reviewed science and preprints
ReferenceTypeYearRoleUsed for
Lawson34journal article1957frameworkpower-producing criterion
Zylstra et al.35journal article2022contextburning plasma in inertial fusion
Abu-Shawareb et al.36journal article2024supportstarget gain above unity
Creely et al.37journal article2020contextSPARC design basis
Sorbom et al.38journal article2015contextARC design study
Beidler et al.42journal article2021contextstellarator transport
Maslov et al.46journal article2023contextJET deuterium-tritium programme
Knaster et al.41journal article2016frameworkmaterials research
Table 6.6Institutional flagships
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
Abdou et al.39journal article2021frameworktritium self-sufficiency
Federici et al.40journal article2019contextEuropean demonstration design
Pearson et al.43journal article2018frameworktritium supply and use
Coleman and Kovari20conference paper2018supportstritium from heavy-water reactors
Ward et al.33preprint2026contextlithium enrichment
EAST overview32conference paper2025contextlong-pulse operation
National Academies45consensus report2021contextpilot plant pathway
Table 6.7Policy, regulation and strategies
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
NRC proposed rule14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission2026supportslicensing framework
DOE roadmap12US Department of Energy2025supportsnational plan
UK strategy15UK Government2026supportsfunding and STEP
EU call for evidence18European Commission2025contextstrategy preparation
Japan strategy44Cabinet Office of Japan2023contextnational plan
Table 6.8Supply, investment and field overviews
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
ITER project page7ITER Organization2026supportsbaseline dates
IAEA World Fusion Outlook931IAEA2025contextdevice count
Fusion Industry Association surveys1011trade association via news2025 to 2026contextinvestment
Lithium-6 presentation21Kyoto Fusioneering2022contextfuel supply
Tritium commentary22Kleinman Center2025contextinventory
Orion page24Helion2026contextcompany plan
ARC offtake release23Eni and CFS2025contextcompany plan

Where the evidence agrees

  • Records at research devices are real and published541
  • First plants need a tritium breeding solution3921
  • Licensing rules are being written now1415

Where it is unsettled

  • When any plant could deliver electricity242312
  • How much tritium will be free for start-up202243
  • How large the facility electricity per shot or pulse is536

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 15UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), A new energy revolution: the UK plan for delivering fusion energy (policy paper of 16 March 2026; over GBP 2.5 billion over five years; GBP 1.3 billion for STEP and UK Fusion Energy; the first 100,000 of 127,790 characters were read). UK Government, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 12US Department of Energy (ed.), Energy Department announces Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap to accelerate commercial fusion power (announcement of 16 October 2025; Build-Innovate-Grow; power on the grid by the mid-2030s; no funding commitment). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 16Clean Energy Wire (ed.), German government pledges more than EUR 2 bln for nuclear fusion (news report of 2 October 2025; cabinet plan of 1 October 2025). Clean Energy Wire, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 17World Nuclear News (ed.), Germany boosts funding for fusion research (news report; Fusion Action Plan of October 2025; more than EUR 2 billion by 2029; about EUR 1.7 billion public research funding and up to EUR 755 million from an infrastructure fund). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 18European Commission (ed.), Commission launches call for evidence to support first-ever EU-wide fusion strategy (news item of 6 June 2025; call open to 1 July 2025; strategy then programmed for the end of 2025). Directorate-General for Energy, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Cabinet Office of Japan (ed.), Fusion Energy Innovation Strategy (national strategy, April 2023), cited from memory. Cabinet Office, Tokyo. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 9World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion entering implementation phase, says Grossi (report on the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2025; more than 160 devices; private investment above USD 10 billion; October 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 8ITER Organization (ed.), ITER Newsline issue 473 (item on the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2025, dated 14 October 2025). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lawson, J.D., Some criteria for a power producing thermonuclear reactor, Proceedings of the Physical Society B 70, 6 to 10, 1957, cited from memory. Observation year 1957. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zylstra, A.B. et al., Burning plasma achieved in inertial fusion, Nature 601, 542 to 548, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Abu-Shawareb, H. et al., Achievement of target gain larger than unity in an inertial fusion experiment, Physical Review Letters 132, 065102, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Creely, A.J. et al., Overview of the SPARC tokamak, Journal of Plasma Physics 86, 865860502, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sorbom, B.N. et al., ARC: a compact, high-field, fusion nuclear science facility and demonstration power plant with demountable magnets, Fusion Engineering and Design 100, 378 to 405, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Beidler, C.D. et al., Demonstration of reduced neoclassical energy transport in Wendelstein 7-X, Nature 596, 221 to 226, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Maslov, M. et al., JET D-T scientific programme, Nuclear Fusion 63, 112002, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Knaster, J., Moeslang, A. and Muroga, T., Materials research for fusion, Nature Physics 12, 424 to 434, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Abdou, M. et al., Physics and technology considerations for the deuterium-tritium fuel cycle and conditions for tritium fuel self sufficiency, Nuclear Fusion 61, 013001, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federici, G. et al., Overview of the DEMO staged design approach in Europe, Nuclear Fusion 59, 066013, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pearson, R.J., Antoniazzi, A.B. and Nuttall, W.J., Tritium supply and use: a key issue for the development of nuclear fusion energy, Fusion Engineering and Design 136, 1140 to 1148, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 20Coleman, M. and Kovari, M., Global supply of tritium for fusion R and D from heavy water reactors (conference paper, UK Atomic Energy Authority; abstract and introduction read from the PDF; 0 to 27.7 kg available in 2055 across scenarios; 7.4 kg for a demonstration reactor in 2055 in one case). UK Atomic Energy Authority, Abingdon. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ward, P. and colleagues, Lithium enrichment threatens to curb fusion deployment, arXiv:2605.04707, 2026, taken from search-result summaries. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Huang, J. and colleagues, EAST overview paper, IAEA Fusion Energy Conference 2025, seen as a search listing only. Institute of Plasma Physics, Hefei. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (eds.), Bringing Fusion to the US Grid, consensus report, 2021, cited from memory. National Academies Press, Washington. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  26. 7ITER Organization (ed.), ITER in a few lines (project page; baseline reviewed by the ITER Council in November 2024; start of research operation 2034; deuterium-tritium operation 2039; Q of 10, 500 MW from 50 MW). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  27. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), World Fusion Outlook 2025 (publication page returned a payment error; figures read through news). International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  28. 11World Nuclear News (ed.), Access to funding remains a major issue for fusion, says FIA (report on the Fusion Industry Association 2025 survey of 23 July 2025: USD 2.64 billion, USD 9.766 billion cumulative, 53 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  29. 21Pearson, R.J., The availability and supply of critical natural resources for the realisation of a fusion pilot plant: fuels for fusion (presentation to the US Department of Energy fusion workshop, 1 to 3 June 2022; lithium-6 is 7.4% of natural lithium; blankets need 30 to 90%; supply effectively zero; a company presentation, weak evidence). Kyoto Fusioneering, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  30. 22Theiding, T., Tritium: a few kilograms can make or break nuclear fusion (policy blog post of 6 March 2025; about 25 kg of civilian tritium in 2024; a student fellow commentary, weak evidence). Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  31. 24Helion (ed.), Orion, the first fusion power plant (company page; Malaga, Washington; construction from 2025; initial operations stated for 2028; Microsoft agreement for 50 MW; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  32. 23Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Eni (eds.), Eni and CFS sign over USD 1 billion power purchase agreement (joint company release of 22 September 2025; 400 MW ARC plant in Chesterfield County, Virginia; grid connection in the early 2030s; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  33. 5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  34. 4World Nuclear News (ed.), New world record set in JET final fusion experiments (news report of 9 February 2024; 69 MJ over 5 seconds from 0.2 milligrams of fuel; 59 MJ in 2021). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  35. 1CEA IRFM (ed.), WEST sets a new plasma duration record (news page; plasma 61299, 12 February 2025, 1,337 seconds, 2 MW lower hybrid heating, 2.6 GJ injected and extracted). Commissariat a l energie atomique et aux energies alternatives, Cadarache. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  36. 25Physics Today (ed.), ITER costs are pinned down with caveats (news report on the 2016 baseline review; review committee chaired by A. Wagner; estimate without contingencies). American Institute of Physics, College Park. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  37. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITER Organization and press (eds.), ITER 2024 baseline additional cost of about EUR 5 billion, taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 fusion agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 fusion edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. F-01

    How much tritium is available to start a first plant, and how does stated demand compare with supply by year?

    INI-XT14-FUE-01 · tritium supply and start-up; first output: supply and demand table.

  2. F-02

    What lithium-6 enrichment capacity exists, and what do blanket designs need?

    INI-XT14-LIT-02 · lithium-6 and blankets; first output: capacity map.

  3. F-03

    What licensing, waste and siting rules apply to first plants in each jurisdiction?

    INI-XT14-LIC-03 · licensing and waste; first output: rule overlay.

  4. F-04

    How can gain, duration and power claims be compared on a common basis, including facility electricity?

    INI-XT14-BMK-04 · performance on a common basis; first output: benchmark table.

  5. F-05

    How do stated plant dates, public funding and private funding move together?

    INI-XT14-FIN-05 · funding and schedule tracker; first output: tracker.

  6. F-06

    Which materials and components limit first-wall and magnet lifetimes?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: dependence map.

  7. F-07

    What workforce exists for fusion engineering, tritium handling and licensing?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. F-08

    Which readiness capabilities have been tested in a real licence or fuel transfer, and which are only planned?

    Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 fusion portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-XT14-FUE-01Tritium supply and start-upInitiativeF-01PROPOSED
INI-XT14-LIT-02Lithium-6 and blanketsInitiativeF-02PROPOSED
INI-XT14-LIC-03Licensing and wasteInitiativeF-03PROPOSED
INI-XT14-BMK-04Performance on a common basisInitiativeF-04PROPOSED
INI-XT14-FIN-05Funding and schedule trackerInitiativeF-05PROPOSED
MSN-XT14-2027-01First-plant fuel Universe missionMissionF-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The fusion edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on energy, minerals and materials, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and lifeline editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National readiness chapters

    fusion programme and regulatory readiness in each national edition

    IN PREPARATION · national baselines

  2. 02

    Sector couplings

    GS-02 energy · SR-04 minerals · XT-12 materials

    DRAFTED · sector baselines

  3. 03

    Technology system model

    devices, fuel cycle, materials, workforce, governance

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Strategic links

    SR-02 lifeline systems · SR-13 strategic technology

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    XT-14 report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the fusion candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the fusion candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-XT14-2027-01 · First-plant fuel Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
INF-001 · inertial resultINI-XT14-BMK-04performance on a common basisPUBLIC
INF-003 · plasma durationINI-XT14-BMK-04performance on a common basisPUBLIC
INF-005 · ITER planINI-XT14-FIN-05funding and schedule trackerPUBLIC
MIN-006 · tritiumINI-XT14-FUE-01tritium supply and start-upPUBLIC
MIN-007 · lithium-6INI-XT14-LIT-02lithium-6 and blanketsPUBLIC
FIN-008 · investmentINI-XT14-FIN-05funding and schedule trackerPUBLIC
GOV-010 · licensingINI-XT14-LIC-03licensing and wastePUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-XT14-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Laboratory and institute news on recordslaboratories and institutesper eventINF-001
ITER project updatesITER Organizationper releaseINF-005
Federal Register and NRC fusion pagesUS regulatorper releaseGOV-010
Fusion Industry Association reporttrade associationannualFIN-008
IAEA World Fusion OutlookIAEAannualINF-005
Company announcementscompaniesper eventFIN-011
Tritium and lithium supply noticesproducers and agenciesper eventMIN-006

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-XT14-001NIF reached a target gain of 4.135CORROBORATEDINFresearch question F-04
SIG-XT14-002Private funding rose to USD 4.48 billion in 12 months10PARTIALFINinitiative F-05
SIG-XT14-003US rule proposed for fusion machines14CORROBORATEDGOVinitiative F-03

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

10 min read0 figures5 tables25 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

8.1Devices and confinement platforms

Fusion devices confine plasma with lasers, magnets or both. Evidence is strongest where a laboratory reports a measured result, and weakest where claims rest on company plans.

4.13times

NIF target gain, 20255

69MJ

JET energy over about 5 seconds4

1,337seconds

WEST plasma duration1

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Laser inertial confinementtarget gain of 4.13 on one facility; upgrade planned56Reported
TokamaksJET energy record; WEST and EAST duration records412Reported
Stellaratorslong-pulse triple product record at Wendelstein 7-X342Reported
Company devicesplant and device plans are company statements; SPARC date unverified242329Inferred

Couplings

  • INF ↔ FIN devices and funding
  • INF → ENE capability and firm power
  • MIN → INF fuel and materials

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • performance on a common basis
  • facility electricity per shot or pulse

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-15 Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

8.2Fuel cycle, tritium and energy balance

Deuterium-tritium plants need tritium, bred inside the plant from lithium, and start-up tritium from outside. Supply of both is thinly measured.

0 to 27.7kg

tritium free for fusion in 2055, scenario range20

≈25kg

civilian tritium in 2024, one commentary22

7.4%

lithium-6 in natural lithium21

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Tritium supplyheavy-water reactors are the only commercial source2021Reported
Tritium inventoryabout 25 kg in 2024 in one commentary; weak evidence22Reported
Breedingblankets must reach a breeding ratio above one2139Reported
Energy balancefacility electricity per shot or pulse not bound5Expert input

Couplings

  • MIN → INF tritium supply
  • ENE ↔ INF facility power
  • WAT → INF cooling water

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • tritium inventory and start-up demand
  • facility electricity and cooling water

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-15 Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

8.3Materials, lithium and supply chain

Plants need enriched lithium, magnets, structural materials and plasma-facing components. Only lithium-6 has evidence in this edition.

30 to 90%

lithium-6 enrichment in blanket designs21

0supply

current lithium-6 supply, effectively zero21

2026preprint

lithium enrichment analysis, seen in search only33

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Lithium-6supply effectively zero according to one presentation21Reported
Enrichment routescost and hazard concerns in one preprint; not opened33Inferred
Magnets and structuresnot documented in sources read41Expert input
Research facilitiesshared test facilities named in strategies1512Inferred

Couplings

  • MIN → INF lithium and materials
  • TRD → INF export controls
  • FIN → INF fabrication

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • lithium-6 capacity
  • component lifetimes and fabrication capacity

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-15 Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

8.4Economy, investment and workforce

Private funding rose to a record in the 12 months to July 2026 and public programmes expanded. Workforce numbers are the thin part of the evidence.

4.48USD billion

private funding, 12 months to July 202610

14.24USD billion

cumulative private funding10

>2.5GBP billion

UK funding over five years15

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Private fundingUSD 4.48 billion in 12 months; 56 companies in the survey10Reported
Public fundingUK, German and Chinese commitments on different bases151619Reported
ProgrammesUS milestone programme funded eight companies in 202313Reported
Workforceskills programmes announced in the UK; no figure bound15Expert input

Couplings

  • FIN → INF scale-up
  • FIN → GOV public programmes
  • HLT → INF workforce

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • public funding totals
  • workforce size and skills gaps

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-15 Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

8.5Safety, licensing and governance watch

The nearest effect of fusion on other infrastructure is regulatory. The US has proposed a licensing framework, and the UK, Germany and the EU have plans.

2026proposed rule

US rule on fusion machines, 26 February 202614

2026comments

comment deadline 27 May 202614

2029submission

planned UK Development Consent Order for STEP, March 202915

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
US licensingfusion machines under byproduct material rules of part 3014Reported
US planroadmap of October 2025 targets power by the mid-2030s12Reported
UK and Germanystrategy of March 2026; action plan of October 20251516Reported
EU and internationalcall for evidence in 2025; IAEA group and outlook189Reported

Couplings

  • GOV → INF licensing route
  • GOV → FIN financing conditions
  • GOV → TRD fuel transfer rules

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • final rule text
  • national waste and siting rules

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
  • XT-15 Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission
  • XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
  • SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 4World Nuclear News (ed.), New world record set in JET final fusion experiments (news report of 9 February 2024; 69 MJ over 5 seconds from 0.2 milligrams of fuel; 59 MJ in 2021). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 1CEA IRFM (ed.), WEST sets a new plasma duration record (news page; plasma 61299, 12 February 2025, 1,337 seconds, 2 MW lower hybrid heating, 2.6 GJ injected and extracted). Commissariat a l energie atomique et aux energies alternatives, Cadarache. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 6Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), NIF fusion ignition shot hailed as historic scientific feat (news page; shot of 5 December 2022, 3.15 MJ from 2.05 MJ; announced 13 December 2022). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 2Physics World (ed.), China experimental advanced superconducting tokamak smashes fusion confinement record (news report; EAST 1066 seconds in high confinement, January 2025; earlier 403 seconds in 2023). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 3World Nuclear News (ed.), Wendelstein 7-X sets new fusion performance records (news report of 4 June 2025; long-pulse triple product held for 43 seconds; announcement by the research institute and EUROfusion; peer-reviewed article not yet published at announcement). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Beidler, C.D. et al., Demonstration of reduced neoclassical energy transport in Wendelstein 7-X, Nature 596, 221 to 226, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 24Helion (ed.), Orion, the first fusion power plant (company page; Malaga, Washington; construction from 2025; initial operations stated for 2028; Microsoft agreement for 50 MW; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 23Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Eni (eds.), Eni and CFS sign over USD 1 billion power purchase agreement (joint company release of 22 September 2025; 400 MW ARC plant in Chesterfield County, Virginia; grid connection in the early 2030s; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commonwealth Fusion Systems (ed.), SPARC status, first plasma reported as a 2027 target, taken from search-result summaries and secondary pages. Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 20Coleman, M. and Kovari, M., Global supply of tritium for fusion R and D from heavy water reactors (conference paper, UK Atomic Energy Authority; abstract and introduction read from the PDF; 0 to 27.7 kg available in 2055 across scenarios; 7.4 kg for a demonstration reactor in 2055 in one case). UK Atomic Energy Authority, Abingdon. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 22Theiding, T., Tritium: a few kilograms can make or break nuclear fusion (policy blog post of 6 March 2025; about 25 kg of civilian tritium in 2024; a student fellow commentary, weak evidence). Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 21Pearson, R.J., The availability and supply of critical natural resources for the realisation of a fusion pilot plant: fuels for fusion (presentation to the US Department of Energy fusion workshop, 1 to 3 June 2022; lithium-6 is 7.4% of natural lithium; blankets need 30 to 90%; supply effectively zero; a company presentation, weak evidence). Kyoto Fusioneering, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Abdou, M. et al., Physics and technology considerations for the deuterium-tritium fuel cycle and conditions for tritium fuel self sufficiency, Nuclear Fusion 61, 013001, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ward, P. and colleagues, Lithium enrichment threatens to curb fusion deployment, arXiv:2605.04707, 2026, taken from search-result summaries. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Knaster, J., Moeslang, A. and Muroga, T., Materials research for fusion, Nature Physics 12, 424 to 434, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 15UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), A new energy revolution: the UK plan for delivering fusion energy (policy paper of 16 March 2026; over GBP 2.5 billion over five years; GBP 1.3 billion for STEP and UK Fusion Energy; the first 100,000 of 127,790 characters were read). UK Government, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 12US Department of Energy (ed.), Energy Department announces Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap to accelerate commercial fusion power (announcement of 16 October 2025; Build-Innovate-Grow; power on the grid by the mid-2030s; no funding commitment). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 16Clean Energy Wire (ed.), German government pledges more than EUR 2 bln for nuclear fusion (news report of 2 October 2025; cabinet plan of 1 October 2025). Clean Energy Wire, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 19American Nuclear Society (ed.), China launches fusion-focused company (news report of 30 July 2025; China Fusion Energy Co., 15 billion yuan registered capital, subsidiary of a state nuclear group; BEST tokamak in Hefei hoped for 2027). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 13American Nuclear Society (ed.), DOE picks eight fusion companies to design pilot power plants (news report of 2 June 2023; USD 46 million milestone programme; the page was read to the paywall). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 18European Commission (ed.), Commission launches call for evidence to support first-ever EU-wide fusion strategy (news item of 6 June 2025; call open to 1 July 2025; strategy then programmed for the end of 2025). Directorate-General for Energy, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 9World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion entering implementation phase, says Grossi (report on the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2025; more than 160 devices; private investment above USD 10 billion; October 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

14 min read0 figures13 tables21 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.DerivationCalculationResult
(1)Target gain of the December 2022 NIF shot3.15 ÷ 2.051.54
(2)Start of deuterium-tritium operation in the 2016 ITER plan implied by a four-year delay to 20392039 minus 42035
(3)Average fusion power over the JET record pulse69 MJ ÷ 5 sabout 14 MW
(4)Ratio of private funding in 12 months to July 2026 to the 2025 figure4.48 ÷ 2.64about 1.7 times
Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
StrengthDefinition
STRONGa disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATEan effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAKan effect is plausible but not documented at global scale
Table A.3Status grammar
LabelRule
Reportedvalue as issued by its source, with year
Inferredreasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
EstimatedNexus analytical value with stated method
Scenarioconditional on stated assumptions
Expert inputstructured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, Fusion System Model v0

Model ID
MDL-XT14-FUSION · v0.1
Purpose
represent fusion and frontier energy as infrastructure coupled to energy, fuel supply, materials, finance, workforce and licensing
Family
graph-based system of systems
Inputs
the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method
expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation
none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty
qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity
global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
Reproducibility
strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings

typed in v0

0strong

documented within one season

0moderate

documented, buffered

20weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID
DC-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Type
baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy
pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned
46 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs
none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest
computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes
nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by
the 2027 fusion annual cut

Lineage

  1. 01

    source edition

  2. 02

    pinned citation

  3. 03

    finding

  4. 04

    page

  5. 05

    publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
ElementBaseline 20262027 global annual
Sourcescited global publications, pinned by editionnational, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysisstated methods and editorial estimatestyped analysis specifications
ModelsFusion System Model v0 specificationmodel runs with receipts
Findingstwelve baseline findingsfindings re-bound to federation evidence
Reviewfive passes scheduledfive passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
IndicatorObservedReleasedCadenceNext release
NIF record shot2025Apr 2025per eventrefurbished shots
JET energy record2023Oct 2023 · Feb 2024one-offITER results
WEST and EAST durations2025Jan to Feb 2025per eventnext campaigns
ITER baseline2026page read 2026-11-03periodicnext Council update
Industry survey2026Jul 2026annualJuly 2027
US regulator rule2026Feb 2026per rulefinal rule
UK strategy2026Mar 2026periodicEN-8 draft
Tritium supply analysis20182018 · 2025 commentaryone-offnew studies
Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
SystemCoverageThinnest dimension
ExperimentsGOODpower and gain on a plant basis
Fuel cycleTHINtritium and lithium-6 volumes
GovernancePARTIALfinal rules and national plans
InvestmentPARTIALpublic funding totals
EnergyTHINelectricity delivered to a grid
MaterialsTHINcomponent lifetimes
SkillsTHINworkforce numbers
Frontier energy beyond fusionTHINcovered by other editions
Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
FieldSource that would fill itBlocker
Electricity delivered to a grid from fusionplant operators and grid operatorsno plant in operation in the sources read; company plans only2423
Facility electricity per NIF shot or per WEST pulselaboratory facility reportsnot on the pages read; gain counts laser energy on target only5
Global tritium inventory and start-up demand on a common basisIAEA, national tritium programmes, peer-reviewed supply studiesone conference analysis and one commentary read; estimates differ2022
Lithium-6 enrichment capacity and demandenrichment operators, national laboratoriesone company presentation read; a 2026 preprint seen in search only2133
ITER cost of the 2024 baselineITER Council documentsnot on the page read; a figure appears only in search summaries26
SPARC first plasma date and statusCommonwealth Fusion Systems and its regulatorsdate reported in search summaries only; no primary page opened29
Commonwealth Fusion Systems offtake terms with Googlecompany releasesseen in search summaries only; terms not disclosed27
Helion Microsoft agreement termscompany releasesrelease page returned a block; figure taken from the company page read2824
Fusion Industry Association 2026 report from the report itselfFIA report30report page returned an error; figures come from a news service10
IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2025 from the report itselfIAEA publication31publication page returned a payment error; figures come from news9
Status of the final US rule on fusion machinesFederal Register and NRCproposed rule read; no final rule located at evidence close14
Status of the EU fusion strategyEuropean Commissioncall for evidence read; no strategy text located18
Public funding totals by countryministries, OECD, national audit officesnot consolidated; UK, Germany and China figures are on different bases151619
Workforce size and fabrication capacity by countrynational statistics, industry surveysnot retrieved; capability rung stays LISTED

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Published on the annual report site of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for 2025. One facility. Role: binds INF-001 and the gain tiles. Coverage: laser-driven inertial confinement.

EVD-XT14-001

Record fusion yield and gain at the National Ignition Facility5

Conference paper of the UK Atomic Energy Authority, 2018. One-off. Role: binds MIN-006. Coverage: heavy-water reactors and scenarios to 2055.

EVD-XT14-002

Global supply of tritium for fusion R and D from heavy-water reactors20

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
DimensionEVD-XT14-001EVD-XT14-002
Completenessone facility; one shot seriesscenarios to 2055 on 2018 data
Timelinessannual report for 2025about eight years old
Revisionyearly reportsrevised from an earlier work
Method transparencyyield and laser energy statedscenario assumptions stated
External validationlaboratory report; journal papers for earlier shotsconference review

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

  • LLNL5: refurbished shots and a facility electricity figure
  • ITER7: Council decisions on the baseline
  • NRC14: final text of the rule
  • Coleman and Kovari20: updated supply scenarios

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
GroupAreaItemsPassN/APending
D1Identity and scope8800
D2Source and data12912
D3Analysis and models12381
D4Findings and claims9801
D5Figures, tables, maps10622
D6Editorial and citations10802
D7Review and approval130013
D8Artefact and design12705
D9Registry and release9009

Publication gate

Conditions met
14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems
none recorded
Open conditions
reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs
first runs in Q1 2027
Maps
plates in Q2 2027
Waivers
none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
StatusWhat it means
ObservedMeasured directly and published by the source.
ReportedPublished statistics of an official or institutional source.
DeclaredStated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
EstimatedA Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
ModelledProduced by a stated model from cited inputs.
InferredReasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
ForecastA projection by the cited source.
SimulatedA simulation result under stated assumptions.
ScenarioA conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert inputExpert judgement, recorded with its basis.
CandidateProposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Evidence arrives from the pillarsFoundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealedOn the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembledThe edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turnAt the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opensA named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and depositedThe PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s siteOnly then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to StandardsMethod and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
TermMeaning
Baseline Editionthe inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+Bwater, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Couplinga typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gapthe share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladderLISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQLevidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cuta frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWGNational Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups
Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
AbbreviationExpansion
CANDUCanada Deuterium Uranium heavy-water reactor
D-Tdeuterium-tritium
EASTExperimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak
FIAFusion Industry Association
IAEAInternational Atomic Energy Agency
ITERinternational fusion research project in France
JETJoint European Torus
NIFNational Ignition Facility
NRCUS Nuclear Regulatory Commission
STEPSpherical Tokamak for Energy Production
TBRtritium breeding ratio
WESTTungsten Environment in Steady-state Tokamak

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
ItemAnnexContentsStatus
A.1Indicator definitionsthe global indicator set, with units and sourcesIN THIS EDITION
A.2Coupling strengthsthe twenty-cell matrix and its rationaleIN THIS EDITION
A.3Scenario specificationSCN-XT14-FUE-01 assumptions and signpostsIN THIS EDITION
A.4Capability placementsrung evidence for fifteen functionsIN THIS EDITION
A.5Model diagnosticsfirst runs and validation2027
A.6Sensitivity analysesinfluence of coupling strengths2027
A.7Cluster notescards for the major fusion device and fuel-cycle clusters2027
A.8Review statementspass-by-pass review recordAT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: target gain

Construct
fusion energy produced divided by the laser energy delivered to the target
Unit
times
Method
yield and laser energy as reported by the laboratory for a single shot
Source
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory annual report5
Uncertainty
no uncertainty is stated on the page read
Known limits
laser energy on target only; facility electricity is not included; one facility

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 24Helion (ed.), Orion, the first fusion power plant (company page; Malaga, Washington; construction from 2025; initial operations stated for 2028; Microsoft agreement for 50 MW; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 23Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Eni (eds.), Eni and CFS sign over USD 1 billion power purchase agreement (joint company release of 22 September 2025; 400 MW ARC plant in Chesterfield County, Virginia; grid connection in the early 2030s; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 20Coleman, M. and Kovari, M., Global supply of tritium for fusion R and D from heavy water reactors (conference paper, UK Atomic Energy Authority; abstract and introduction read from the PDF; 0 to 27.7 kg available in 2055 across scenarios; 7.4 kg for a demonstration reactor in 2055 in one case). UK Atomic Energy Authority, Abingdon. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 22Theiding, T., Tritium: a few kilograms can make or break nuclear fusion (policy blog post of 6 March 2025; about 25 kg of civilian tritium in 2024; a student fellow commentary, weak evidence). Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 21Pearson, R.J., The availability and supply of critical natural resources for the realisation of a fusion pilot plant: fuels for fusion (presentation to the US Department of Energy fusion workshop, 1 to 3 June 2022; lithium-6 is 7.4% of natural lithium; blankets need 30 to 90%; supply effectively zero; a company presentation, weak evidence). Kyoto Fusioneering, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ward, P. and colleagues, Lithium enrichment threatens to curb fusion deployment, arXiv:2605.04707, 2026, taken from search-result summaries. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITER Organization and press (eds.), ITER 2024 baseline additional cost of about EUR 5 billion, taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commonwealth Fusion Systems (ed.), SPARC status, first plasma reported as a 2027 target, taken from search-result summaries and secondary pages. Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commonwealth Fusion Systems (ed.), offtake agreement with Google for 200 MW from the Virginia ARC plant, June 2025, taken from search-result summaries. Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Helion (ed.), Helion secures land and begins building on the site of the first fusion power plant, release of 30 July 2025 (the release page returned a block) and the 2023 Microsoft agreement, taken from search-result summaries. Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fusion Industry Association (ed.), The Global Fusion Industry in 2026 (report page returned an error; figures read through a news service). Fusion Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), World Fusion Outlook 2025 (publication page returned a payment error; figures read through news). International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 9World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion entering implementation phase, says Grossi (report on the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2025; more than 160 devices; private investment above USD 10 billion; October 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 18European Commission (ed.), Commission launches call for evidence to support first-ever EU-wide fusion strategy (news item of 6 June 2025; call open to 1 July 2025; strategy then programmed for the end of 2025). Directorate-General for Energy, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 15UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), A new energy revolution: the UK plan for delivering fusion energy (policy paper of 16 March 2026; over GBP 2.5 billion over five years; GBP 1.3 billion for STEP and UK Fusion Energy; the first 100,000 of 127,790 characters were read). UK Government, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 16Clean Energy Wire (ed.), German government pledges more than EUR 2 bln for nuclear fusion (news report of 2 October 2025; cabinet plan of 1 October 2025). Clean Energy Wire, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 19American Nuclear Society (ed.), China launches fusion-focused company (news report of 30 July 2025; China Fusion Energy Co., 15 billion yuan registered capital, subsidiary of a state nuclear group; BEST tokamak in Hefei hoped for 2027). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 7ITER Organization (ed.), ITER in a few lines (project page; baseline reviewed by the ITER Council in November 2024; start of research operation 2034; deuterium-tritium operation 2039; Q of 10, 500 MW from 50 MW). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

10 min read0 figures8 tables18 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Global baseline indicator set
IndicatorValueUnitYearStateSource
NIF fusion energy produced, 7 April 20258.6MJ2025Reported5
NIF laser energy delivered to target, 20252.08MJ2025Reported5
NIF target gain, 20254.13times2025Reported5
NIF fusion energy produced, 5 December 20223.15MJ2022Reported6
NIF laser energy delivered to target, 20222.05MJ2022Reported6
JET fusion energy over about 5 seconds69MJ2023Reported4
WEST plasma duration1,337seconds2025Reported1
WEST heating power in the record pulse2MW2025Reported1
EAST high-confinement plasma duration1,066seconds2025Reported2
Wendelstein 7-X long-pulse triple product record held for43seconds2025Reported3
ITER start of deuterium-tritium operation2039year2039 planScenario7
Private fusion funding, 12 months to July 20264.48USD billion2026Reported10
Private fusion funding, cumulative14.24USD billion2026Reported10
Companies in the 2026 survey56companies2026Reported10
UK government fusion funding over five years>2.5GBP billion2026Reported15
German fusion funding by 2029>2EUR billion2025Reported16

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

  • INF
  • FIN
  • MIN
  • ENE
  • GOV
  • CLI
  • TRD
  • WAT
  • HLT
  • FOO
Table B.3Global source register
SourceCategoryCoveragePeriodCadenceRole
LLNL annual report page5national laboratoryone facility2025annualinertial results
CEA page1national research agencyone device2025one-offplasma duration
WNN on JET4trade news serviceone device2024one-offenergy record
ITER project page7international projectITER2026continuousbaseline
IAEA outlook via news9intergovernmental agencyglobal2025annualdevice count
FIA surveys via news1011trade associationglobal2025 to 2026annualinvestment
US DOE roadmap12national ministryUS2025periodicplan
Federal Register notice14national regulatorUS2026per rulelicensing
UK strategy15national governmentUK2026periodicfunding
Coleman and Kovari20conference paperglobal2018one-offtritium

B.3Regional reading, fusion across ten clusters

Regional plates follow with the regional editions. This page gives the regional reading of fusion infrastructure and exposure in table form and ranks no region.

Table B.4Regional reading, fusion across ten clusters
RegionPrincipal hazardsSystems most exposedBaseline evidence
North Americalaser facility; regulator rule proposed; company plants statedfuel, licensingLLNL5; NRC14; DOE12
South Americano source readnot boundregional evidence (not bound)
EuropeJET results; Wendelstein 7-X; WEST; ITER site; UK and German plansdevices, fundingITER7; UK15; Germany16
Eurasiano source readnot boundregional evidence (not bound)
Middle East and North Africano documented couplingnot boundregional evidence (not bound)
Africano documented couplingnot boundregional evidence (not bound)
South AsiaITER member; no further source readnot boundITER7
East AsiaEAST; state-owned fusion company; national programmesdevices, fundingPhysics World2; ANS19
ASEANno source readnot boundregional evidence (not bound)
Oceania-Pacificno source readnot boundregional evidence (not bound)

B.4Cluster card: tritium and lithium fuel cycle

  • fuel cycle
  • tritium
  • lithium-6
  • single point
Systems in view
heavy-water reactors, tritium stores, enrichment, breeding blankets
Defining events
first plants stated for the 2030s with start-up fuel unresolved2021
Couplings
MIN → INF fuel; TRD → MIN transfer rules
Capability evidence
blanket and breeding research reported3921
Gaps
inventory; start-up demand; lithium-6 capacity
Agenda items
F-01 · F-02

Heavy-water reactors are the only commercial source of tritium, and the amount free for fusion in 2055 ranges from 0 to 27.7 kg across scenarios [20].

SUPPLY

One commercial tritium source

Natural lithium holds 7.4% lithium-6, blankets need 30 to 90%, and current supply is effectively zero according to one presentation [21].

FUEL

Lithium-6 is scarce

Reported responses include breeding blankets, natural-lithium concepts and new enrichment methods. None is documented at scale here [21] [33].

RESPONSE

Breeding and new enrichment

B.5How countries appear in the fusion edition

Countries enter the fusion edition through the readiness chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Table B.5How countries appear in the fusion edition
Card fieldWhat it showsSource
WEFH+B stateeach core system against peer distribution bandsnational edition
Couplingsthe national dependency matrixnational edition
Risk objectsthe national risk portfolionational edition
Capability rungsthe national capability laddernational edition
Evidence ageoldest and newest source datesnational source register

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

26national

countries and unions

10regional

clusters

16global

flagship and sector

14strategic

systems reports

20frontier

technology reports

How to read a country card

  • Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
  • Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
  • Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
  • Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such
Table B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
WaveCountries and unionsState
W0CanadaISSUED
W1United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, SwitzerlandPLANNED
W2Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, AustraliaPLANNED

B.6Licences

Table B.7Licences of each kind of material
MaterialLicence
TextCC BY 4.0
Dataon the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
FiguresNexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Mapsboundary source and licence printed on each plate
MetadataCC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and textThe source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.8This edition in every format
FormatKindStateWhat it isIdentifier
Web editionHTMLOn this siteDraft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print editionPDFAt releaseA4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator dataCSV · JSONOn this site16 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1
FiguresSVG · PNGOn this site4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.FIG-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*
SlidesPDFNot recordedNo slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence briefHTML · PDFNot recordedNo evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOIDataCiteAt releaseConcept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack
The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut
DC-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility
sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check
14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review
five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections
Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), NIF fusion ignition shot hailed as historic scientific feat (news page; shot of 5 December 2022, 3.15 MJ from 2.05 MJ; announced 13 December 2022). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 4World Nuclear News (ed.), New world record set in JET final fusion experiments (news report of 9 February 2024; 69 MJ over 5 seconds from 0.2 milligrams of fuel; 59 MJ in 2021). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 1CEA IRFM (ed.), WEST sets a new plasma duration record (news page; plasma 61299, 12 February 2025, 1,337 seconds, 2 MW lower hybrid heating, 2.6 GJ injected and extracted). Commissariat a l energie atomique et aux energies alternatives, Cadarache. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 2Physics World (ed.), China experimental advanced superconducting tokamak smashes fusion confinement record (news report; EAST 1066 seconds in high confinement, January 2025; earlier 403 seconds in 2023). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 3World Nuclear News (ed.), Wendelstein 7-X sets new fusion performance records (news report of 4 June 2025; long-pulse triple product held for 43 seconds; announcement by the research institute and EUROfusion; peer-reviewed article not yet published at announcement). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 7ITER Organization (ed.), ITER in a few lines (project page; baseline reviewed by the ITER Council in November 2024; start of research operation 2034; deuterium-tritium operation 2039; Q of 10, 500 MW from 50 MW). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 15UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), A new energy revolution: the UK plan for delivering fusion energy (policy paper of 16 March 2026; over GBP 2.5 billion over five years; GBP 1.3 billion for STEP and UK Fusion Energy; the first 100,000 of 127,790 characters were read). UK Government, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 16Clean Energy Wire (ed.), German government pledges more than EUR 2 bln for nuclear fusion (news report of 2 October 2025; cabinet plan of 1 October 2025). Clean Energy Wire, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 9World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion entering implementation phase, says Grossi (report on the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2025; more than 160 devices; private investment above USD 10 billion; October 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 11World Nuclear News (ed.), Access to funding remains a major issue for fusion, says FIA (report on the Fusion Industry Association 2025 survey of 23 July 2025: USD 2.64 billion, USD 9.766 billion cumulative, 53 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 12US Department of Energy (ed.), Energy Department announces Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap to accelerate commercial fusion power (announcement of 16 October 2025; Build-Innovate-Grow; power on the grid by the mid-2030s; no funding commitment). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 20Coleman, M. and Kovari, M., Global supply of tritium for fusion R and D from heavy water reactors (conference paper, UK Atomic Energy Authority; abstract and introduction read from the PDF; 0 to 27.7 kg available in 2055 across scenarios; 7.4 kg for a demonstration reactor in 2055 in one case). UK Atomic Energy Authority, Abingdon. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 19American Nuclear Society (ed.), China launches fusion-focused company (news report of 30 July 2025; China Fusion Energy Co., 15 billion yuan registered capital, subsidiary of a state nuclear group; BEST tokamak in Hefei hoped for 2027). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 21Pearson, R.J., The availability and supply of critical natural resources for the realisation of a fusion pilot plant: fuels for fusion (presentation to the US Department of Energy fusion workshop, 1 to 3 June 2022; lithium-6 is 7.4% of natural lithium; blankets need 30 to 90%; supply effectively zero; a company presentation, weak evidence). Kyoto Fusioneering, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Abdou, M. et al., Physics and technology considerations for the deuterium-tritium fuel cycle and conditions for tritium fuel self sufficiency, Nuclear Fusion 61, 013001, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

15 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

C.146 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1CEA IRFM (ed.), WEST sets a new plasma duration record (news page; plasma 61299, 12 February 2025, 1,337 seconds, 2 MW lower hybrid heating, 2.6 GJ injected and extracted). Commissariat a l energie atomique et aux energies alternatives, Cadarache. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2Physics World (ed.), China experimental advanced superconducting tokamak smashes fusion confinement record (news report; EAST 1066 seconds in high confinement, January 2025; earlier 403 seconds in 2023). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8
  3. 3World Nuclear News (ed.), Wendelstein 7-X sets new fusion performance records (news report of 4 June 2025; long-pulse triple product held for 43 seconds; announcement by the research institute and EUROfusion; peer-reviewed article not yet published at announcement). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
  4. 4World Nuclear News (ed.), New world record set in JET final fusion experiments (news report of 9 February 2024; 69 MJ over 5 seconds from 0.2 milligrams of fuel; 59 MJ in 2021). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  6. 6Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), NIF fusion ignition shot hailed as historic scientific feat (news page; shot of 5 December 2022, 3.15 MJ from 2.05 MJ; announced 13 December 2022). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 8
  7. 7ITER Organization (ed.), ITER in a few lines (project page; baseline reviewed by the ITER Council in November 2024; start of research operation 2034; deuterium-tritium operation 2039; Q of 10, 500 MW from 50 MW). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
  8. 8ITER Organization (ed.), ITER Newsline issue 473 (item on the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2025, dated 14 October 2025). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  9. 9World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion entering implementation phase, says Grossi (report on the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2025; more than 160 devices; private investment above USD 10 billion; October 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  10. 10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  11. 11World Nuclear News (ed.), Access to funding remains a major issue for fusion, says FIA (report on the Fusion Industry Association 2025 survey of 23 July 2025: USD 2.64 billion, USD 9.766 billion cumulative, 53 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  12. 12US Department of Energy (ed.), Energy Department announces Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap to accelerate commercial fusion power (announcement of 16 October 2025; Build-Innovate-Grow; power on the grid by the mid-2030s; no funding commitment). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13American Nuclear Society (ed.), DOE picks eight fusion companies to design pilot power plants (news report of 2 June 2023; USD 46 million milestone programme; the page was read to the paywall). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  14. 14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  15. 15UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), A new energy revolution: the UK plan for delivering fusion energy (policy paper of 16 March 2026; over GBP 2.5 billion over five years; GBP 1.3 billion for STEP and UK Fusion Energy; the first 100,000 of 127,790 characters were read). UK Government, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16Clean Energy Wire (ed.), German government pledges more than EUR 2 bln for nuclear fusion (news report of 2 October 2025; cabinet plan of 1 October 2025). Clean Energy Wire, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17World Nuclear News (ed.), Germany boosts funding for fusion research (news report; Fusion Action Plan of October 2025; more than EUR 2 billion by 2029; about EUR 1.7 billion public research funding and up to EUR 755 million from an infrastructure fund). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  18. 18European Commission (ed.), Commission launches call for evidence to support first-ever EU-wide fusion strategy (news item of 6 June 2025; call open to 1 July 2025; strategy then programmed for the end of 2025). Directorate-General for Energy, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19American Nuclear Society (ed.), China launches fusion-focused company (news report of 30 July 2025; China Fusion Energy Co., 15 billion yuan registered capital, subsidiary of a state nuclear group; BEST tokamak in Hefei hoped for 2027). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
  20. 20Coleman, M. and Kovari, M., Global supply of tritium for fusion R and D from heavy water reactors (conference paper, UK Atomic Energy Authority; abstract and introduction read from the PDF; 0 to 27.7 kg available in 2055 across scenarios; 7.4 kg for a demonstration reactor in 2055 in one case). UK Atomic Energy Authority, Abingdon. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21Pearson, R.J., The availability and supply of critical natural resources for the realisation of a fusion pilot plant: fuels for fusion (presentation to the US Department of Energy fusion workshop, 1 to 3 June 2022; lithium-6 is 7.4% of natural lithium; blankets need 30 to 90%; supply effectively zero; a company presentation, weak evidence). Kyoto Fusioneering, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22Theiding, T., Tritium: a few kilograms can make or break nuclear fusion (policy blog post of 6 March 2025; about 25 kg of civilian tritium in 2024; a student fellow commentary, weak evidence). Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Eni (eds.), Eni and CFS sign over USD 1 billion power purchase agreement (joint company release of 22 September 2025; 400 MW ARC plant in Chesterfield County, Virginia; grid connection in the early 2030s; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24Helion (ed.), Orion, the first fusion power plant (company page; Malaga, Washington; construction from 2025; initial operations stated for 2028; Microsoft agreement for 50 MW; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  25. 25Physics Today (ed.), ITER costs are pinned down with caveats (news report on the 2016 baseline review; review committee chaired by A. Wagner; estimate without contingencies). American Institute of Physics, College Park. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
  26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITER Organization and press (eds.), ITER 2024 baseline additional cost of about EUR 5 billion, taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commonwealth Fusion Systems (ed.), offtake agreement with Google for 200 MW from the Virginia ARC plant, June 2025, taken from search-result summaries. Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Helion (ed.), Helion secures land and begins building on the site of the first fusion power plant, release of 30 July 2025 (the release page returned a block) and the 2023 Microsoft agreement, taken from search-result summaries. Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commonwealth Fusion Systems (ed.), SPARC status, first plasma reported as a 2027 target, taken from search-result summaries and secondary pages. Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fusion Industry Association (ed.), The Global Fusion Industry in 2026 (report page returned an error; figures read through a news service). Fusion Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), World Fusion Outlook 2025 (publication page returned a payment error; figures read through news). International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Huang, J. and colleagues, EAST overview paper, IAEA Fusion Energy Conference 2025, seen as a search listing only. Institute of Plasma Physics, Hefei. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ward, P. and colleagues, Lithium enrichment threatens to curb fusion deployment, arXiv:2605.04707, 2026, taken from search-result summaries. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lawson, J.D., Some criteria for a power producing thermonuclear reactor, Proceedings of the Physical Society B 70, 6 to 10, 1957, cited from memory. Observation year 1957. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zylstra, A.B. et al., Burning plasma achieved in inertial fusion, Nature 601, 542 to 548, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Abu-Shawareb, H. et al., Achievement of target gain larger than unity in an inertial fusion experiment, Physical Review Letters 132, 065102, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Creely, A.J. et al., Overview of the SPARC tokamak, Journal of Plasma Physics 86, 865860502, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sorbom, B.N. et al., ARC: a compact, high-field, fusion nuclear science facility and demonstration power plant with demountable magnets, Fusion Engineering and Design 100, 378 to 405, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Abdou, M. et al., Physics and technology considerations for the deuterium-tritium fuel cycle and conditions for tritium fuel self sufficiency, Nuclear Fusion 61, 013001, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federici, G. et al., Overview of the DEMO staged design approach in Europe, Nuclear Fusion 59, 066013, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Knaster, J., Moeslang, A. and Muroga, T., Materials research for fusion, Nature Physics 12, 424 to 434, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Beidler, C.D. et al., Demonstration of reduced neoclassical energy transport in Wendelstein 7-X, Nature 596, 221 to 226, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pearson, R.J., Antoniazzi, A.B. and Nuttall, W.J., Tritium supply and use: a key issue for the development of nuclear fusion energy, Fusion Engineering and Design 136, 1140 to 1148, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Cabinet Office of Japan (ed.), Fusion Energy Innovation Strategy (national strategy, April 2023), cited from memory. Cabinet Office, Tokyo. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (eds.), Bringing Fusion to the US Grid, consensus report, 2021, cited from memory. National Academies Press, Washington. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Maslov, M. et al., JET D-T scientific programme, Nuclear Fusion 63, 112002, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Exponential Technology Report 2026: Fusion and Frontier Energy, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Exponential Technology Series XT-14
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 fusion edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
XT-14NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-XTC-XT-14-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Fusion and Frontier Energy; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Fusion and Frontier Energy, prefilled from this page
{
  "metadata": {
    "resource_type": {
      "id": "dataset"
    },
    "title": "Evidence on Fusion and Frontier Energy for Nexus Reports",
    "publication_date": "YYYY-MM-DD",
    "creators": [
      {
        "person_or_org": {
          "type": "personal",
          "family_name": "Your family name",
          "given_name": "Your given name",
          "identifiers": [
            {
              "scheme": "orcid",
              "identifier": "0000-0000-0000-0000"
            }
          ]
        },
        "affiliations": [
          {
            "id": "ROR identifier of your organisation"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "description": "What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Exponential Technology Report 2026: Fusion and Frontier Energy.",
    "rights": [
      {
        "id": "cc-by-4.0"
      }
    ],
    "subjects": [
      {
        "subject": "Nexus Reports"
      },
      {
        "subject": "Fusion and Frontier Energy"
      },
      {
        "subject": "Exponential Technology Report · XT-14"
      }
    ],
    "related_identifiers": [
      {
        "identifier": "https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/xt-14/",
        "scheme": "url",
        "relation_type": {
          "id": "issupplementto"
        },
        "resource_type": {
          "id": "publication-report"
        }
      }
    ],
    "version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "custom_fields": {},
  "access": {
    "record": "public",
    "files": "public"
  },
  "files": {
    "enabled": true
  },
  "parent": {
    "communities": {
      "default": "nexusreports"
    }
  }
}

C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. XT-14 edition Reports Fusion and Frontier Energy 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-14 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.
ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Fusion and Frontier Energy.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskExponential Technology

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

Sector signature

The sectors behind Fusion and Frontier Energy.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.