Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

15 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Fusion is an experiment record and a fuel-cycle question
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5First-plant fuel and licence set the pace
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 46 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.146 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1CEA IRFM (ed.), WEST sets a new plasma duration record (news page; plasma 61299, 12 February 2025, 1,337 seconds, 2 MW lower hybrid heating, 2.6 GJ injected and extracted). Commissariat a l energie atomique et aux energies alternatives, Cadarache. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2Physics World (ed.), China experimental advanced superconducting tokamak smashes fusion confinement record (news report; EAST 1066 seconds in high confinement, January 2025; earlier 403 seconds in 2023). IOP Publishing, Bristol. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8
  3. 3World Nuclear News (ed.), Wendelstein 7-X sets new fusion performance records (news report of 4 June 2025; long-pulse triple product held for 43 seconds; announcement by the research institute and EUROfusion; peer-reviewed article not yet published at announcement). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
  4. 4World Nuclear News (ed.), New world record set in JET final fusion experiments (news report of 9 February 2024; 69 MJ over 5 seconds from 0.2 milligrams of fuel; 59 MJ in 2021). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), National Ignition Facility 2025 (annual report page; 8.6 MJ on 7 April 2025 from 2.08 MJ delivered, target gain 4.13; refurbishment and enhanced yield capability to 2.6 MJ). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  6. 6Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (ed.), NIF fusion ignition shot hailed as historic scientific feat (news page; shot of 5 December 2022, 3.15 MJ from 2.05 MJ; announced 13 December 2022). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 8
  7. 7ITER Organization (ed.), ITER in a few lines (project page; baseline reviewed by the ITER Council in November 2024; start of research operation 2034; deuterium-tritium operation 2039; Q of 10, 500 MW from 50 MW). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
  8. 8ITER Organization (ed.), ITER Newsline issue 473 (item on the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2025, dated 14 October 2025). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  9. 9World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion entering implementation phase, says Grossi (report on the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2025; more than 160 devices; private investment above USD 10 billion; October 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  10. 10World Nuclear News (ed.), Fusion industry raised USD4.5 billion in past year, report says (14 July 2026; Fusion Industry Association 2026 survey: USD 4.48 billion in 12 months, USD 14.24 billion cumulative, 56 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  11. 11World Nuclear News (ed.), Access to funding remains a major issue for fusion, says FIA (report on the Fusion Industry Association 2025 survey of 23 July 2025: USD 2.64 billion, USD 9.766 billion cumulative, 53 companies; an industry survey, weak evidence). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  12. 12US Department of Energy (ed.), Energy Department announces Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap to accelerate commercial fusion power (announcement of 16 October 2025; Build-Innovate-Grow; power on the grid by the mid-2030s; no funding commitment). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13American Nuclear Society (ed.), DOE picks eight fusion companies to design pilot power plants (news report of 2 June 2023; USD 46 million milestone programme; the page was read to the paywall). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  14. 14US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Federal Register notice of 26 February 2026, proposed rule on regulatory framework for fusion machines (10 CFR part 30; comments due 27 May 2026; the first 100,000 of 168,363 characters were read). Office of the Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  15. 15UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), A new energy revolution: the UK plan for delivering fusion energy (policy paper of 16 March 2026; over GBP 2.5 billion over five years; GBP 1.3 billion for STEP and UK Fusion Energy; the first 100,000 of 127,790 characters were read). UK Government, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16Clean Energy Wire (ed.), German government pledges more than EUR 2 bln for nuclear fusion (news report of 2 October 2025; cabinet plan of 1 October 2025). Clean Energy Wire, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17World Nuclear News (ed.), Germany boosts funding for fusion research (news report; Fusion Action Plan of October 2025; more than EUR 2 billion by 2029; about EUR 1.7 billion public research funding and up to EUR 755 million from an infrastructure fund). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  18. 18European Commission (ed.), Commission launches call for evidence to support first-ever EU-wide fusion strategy (news item of 6 June 2025; call open to 1 July 2025; strategy then programmed for the end of 2025). Directorate-General for Energy, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19American Nuclear Society (ed.), China launches fusion-focused company (news report of 30 July 2025; China Fusion Energy Co., 15 billion yuan registered capital, subsidiary of a state nuclear group; BEST tokamak in Hefei hoped for 2027). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
  20. 20Coleman, M. and Kovari, M., Global supply of tritium for fusion R and D from heavy water reactors (conference paper, UK Atomic Energy Authority; abstract and introduction read from the PDF; 0 to 27.7 kg available in 2055 across scenarios; 7.4 kg for a demonstration reactor in 2055 in one case). UK Atomic Energy Authority, Abingdon. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21Pearson, R.J., The availability and supply of critical natural resources for the realisation of a fusion pilot plant: fuels for fusion (presentation to the US Department of Energy fusion workshop, 1 to 3 June 2022; lithium-6 is 7.4% of natural lithium; blankets need 30 to 90%; supply effectively zero; a company presentation, weak evidence). Kyoto Fusioneering, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22Theiding, T., Tritium: a few kilograms can make or break nuclear fusion (policy blog post of 6 March 2025; about 25 kg of civilian tritium in 2024; a student fellow commentary, weak evidence). Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Eni (eds.), Eni and CFS sign over USD 1 billion power purchase agreement (joint company release of 22 September 2025; 400 MW ARC plant in Chesterfield County, Virginia; grid connection in the early 2030s; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24Helion (ed.), Orion, the first fusion power plant (company page; Malaga, Washington; construction from 2025; initial operations stated for 2028; Microsoft agreement for 50 MW; a vendor announcement, weak evidence). Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  25. 25Physics Today (ed.), ITER costs are pinned down with caveats (news report on the 2016 baseline review; review committee chaired by A. Wagner; estimate without contingencies). American Institute of Physics, College Park. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
  26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITER Organization and press (eds.), ITER 2024 baseline additional cost of about EUR 5 billion, taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commonwealth Fusion Systems (ed.), offtake agreement with Google for 200 MW from the Virginia ARC plant, June 2025, taken from search-result summaries. Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Helion (ed.), Helion secures land and begins building on the site of the first fusion power plant, release of 30 July 2025 (the release page returned a block) and the 2023 Microsoft agreement, taken from search-result summaries. Helion Energy, Everett. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commonwealth Fusion Systems (ed.), SPARC status, first plasma reported as a 2027 target, taken from search-result summaries and secondary pages. Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Devens. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fusion Industry Association (ed.), The Global Fusion Industry in 2026 (report page returned an error; figures read through a news service). Fusion Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), World Fusion Outlook 2025 (publication page returned a payment error; figures read through news). International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Huang, J. and colleagues, EAST overview paper, IAEA Fusion Energy Conference 2025, seen as a search listing only. Institute of Plasma Physics, Hefei. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ward, P. and colleagues, Lithium enrichment threatens to curb fusion deployment, arXiv:2605.04707, 2026, taken from search-result summaries. arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lawson, J.D., Some criteria for a power producing thermonuclear reactor, Proceedings of the Physical Society B 70, 6 to 10, 1957, cited from memory. Observation year 1957. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zylstra, A.B. et al., Burning plasma achieved in inertial fusion, Nature 601, 542 to 548, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Abu-Shawareb, H. et al., Achievement of target gain larger than unity in an inertial fusion experiment, Physical Review Letters 132, 065102, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Creely, A.J. et al., Overview of the SPARC tokamak, Journal of Plasma Physics 86, 865860502, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sorbom, B.N. et al., ARC: a compact, high-field, fusion nuclear science facility and demonstration power plant with demountable magnets, Fusion Engineering and Design 100, 378 to 405, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Abdou, M. et al., Physics and technology considerations for the deuterium-tritium fuel cycle and conditions for tritium fuel self sufficiency, Nuclear Fusion 61, 013001, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federici, G. et al., Overview of the DEMO staged design approach in Europe, Nuclear Fusion 59, 066013, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Knaster, J., Moeslang, A. and Muroga, T., Materials research for fusion, Nature Physics 12, 424 to 434, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Beidler, C.D. et al., Demonstration of reduced neoclassical energy transport in Wendelstein 7-X, Nature 596, 221 to 226, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pearson, R.J., Antoniazzi, A.B. and Nuttall, W.J., Tritium supply and use: a key issue for the development of nuclear fusion energy, Fusion Engineering and Design 136, 1140 to 1148, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Cabinet Office of Japan (ed.), Fusion Energy Innovation Strategy (national strategy, April 2023), cited from memory. Cabinet Office, Tokyo. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (eds.), Bringing Fusion to the US Grid, consensus report, 2021, cited from memory. National Academies Press, Washington. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Maslov, M. et al., JET D-T scientific programme, Nuclear Fusion 63, 112002, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Exponential Technology Report 2026: Fusion and Frontier Energy, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Exponential Technology Series XT-14
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 fusion edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
XT-14NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-XTC-XT-14-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. XT-14 edition Reports Fusion and Frontier Energy 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-14 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Fusion and Frontier Energy (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Fusion and Frontier Energy.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

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