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First-plant fuel and licence set the pace

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables3 notesNR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Fusion is an experiment record and a fuel-cycle question
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5First-plant fuel and licence set the pace
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-XT14-FUE-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
first plants are announced for the 2030s while start-up tritium, lithium-6 and licensing remain open
Analogues
the slips in ITER baselines; the tritium supply range in 205572025
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    MIN → INF

    start-up tritium for a first plant proves hard to contract

    2018

  2. 2

    MIN → INF

    blanket designs wait for enriched lithium

    2022

  3. 3

    GOV → FIN

    licence rules reach final form later than financing plans assume

    2026

  4. 4

    INF → FIN

    test results arrive but plant dates move to the later 2030s

    2026

  5. 5

    FIN → INF

    funding concentrates in a few devices and test facilities

    2026

  6. 6

    GOV → INF

    national plans diverge on siting and waste

    2026

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-XT14-FUE-01 would travel through Fusion and Frontier Energy’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Minerals to infrastructureStart-up tritium for a first plant proves hard to contract. Analogue or source: 2018.Edition XT-14, scenario SCN-XT14-FUE-01, step 1
02 Minerals to infrastructureBlanket designs wait for enriched lithium. Analogue or source: 2022.Edition XT-14, scenario SCN-XT14-FUE-01, step 2
03 Governance to financeLicence rules reach final form later than financing plans assume. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-14, scenario SCN-XT14-FUE-01, step 3
04 Infrastructure to financeTest results arrive but plant dates move to the later 2030s. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-14, scenario SCN-XT14-FUE-01, step 4
05 Finance to infrastructureFunding concentrates in a few devices and test facilities. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-14, scenario SCN-XT14-FUE-01, step 5
06 Governance to infrastructureNational plans diverge on siting and waste. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-14, scenario SCN-XT14-FUE-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Fusion and Frontier Energy 2026, scenario SCN-XT14-FUE-01 (2026); Fusion and Frontier Energy 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 7ITER Organization (ed.), ITER in a few lines (project page; baseline reviewed by the ITER Council in November 2024; start of research operation 2034; deuterium-tritium operation 2039; Q of 10, 500 MW from 50 MW). ITER Organization, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 20Coleman, M. and Kovari, M., Global supply of tritium for fusion R and D from heavy water reactors (conference paper, UK Atomic Energy Authority; abstract and introduction read from the PDF; 0 to 27.7 kg available in 2055 across scenarios; 7.4 kg for a demonstration reactor in 2055 in one case). UK Atomic Energy Authority, Abingdon. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 25Physics Today (ed.), ITER costs are pinned down with caveats (news report on the 2016 baseline review; review committee chaired by A. Wagner; estimate without contingencies). American Institute of Physics, College Park. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: First-plant fuel and licence set the pace. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Fusion and Frontier Energy (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-FUSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Fusion and Frontier Energy.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Energy and its partners

Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.46 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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