Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the advanced nuclear baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. 443 operable reactors with 405,667 MWe, about 9% of world electricity, in 2025.¹

   How large is the nuclear fleet?Reported

2. Four DOE-authorized test reactors reached zero-power criticality by 4 July 2026; no commercial advanced power reactor was found operating.⁶⁷

   Are advanced reactors operating?Reported

3. A construction permit for a 345 MWe sodium-cooled reactor in March 2026.⁸⁹

   What did the NRC license?Reported

4. Part 53, an optional technology-inclusive framework published in 2026.¹⁰

   What is the new licensing route?Reported

5. HALEU, enriched to 5% up to less than 20% U-235; DOE sees demand up to 50 tonnes a year by 2035.¹¹

   What fuel do many new designs need?Reported

6. Rosatom held about 42.8% of 2025 capacity; the US bars Russian low-enriched uranium imports from August 2024, with waivers.¹²

   Who supplies enrichment?Reported

7. Recent large units ran far over first estimates; small-reactor costs are modelled and contested.¹⁵²⁵

   What do reactors cost?Reported

8. Whether announced schedules meet delivered units, with fuel supply as the limit. SCN-XT15-FUE-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-003

The US NRC issued a construction permit in March 2026 for the Natrium reactor at Kemmerer, Wyoming: a 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor with a molten-salt storage system that can raise output to 500 MW.

A commercial non-light-water power reactor has passed construction licensing in the United States. The NRC review ran 18 months against an initial 27-month schedule⁹. The permit does not cover operation: an operating licence application is still needed, and completion is expected in 2030⁹.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the World Today (information library page; 443 operable reactors, 405,667 MWe net, about 9% of world electricity, 80 under construction with 87,813 MWe gross; electricity data for 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6American Nuclear Society (ed.), The deadline arrives: checking in on the Reactor Pilot Program (news article, 2 July 2026; criticality by Antares 4 June, Valar 18 June, Deployable Energy 1 July; ten companies selected in August 2025; status of the remaining participants). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 7US Department of Energy (ed.), Department of Energy Celebrates Fourth Criticality Ahead of July 4th Goal (press release, 6 July 2026; Aalo-X, Mark-0, Ward 250 and Unity; zero-power fueled criticality; agency announcement). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 8US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), NRC Issues Construction Permit for TerraPower’s Natrium Advanced Reactor (article, 9 March 2026; 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor, storage lifts output to 500 MW; Kemmerer Unit 1, Wyoming; operating licence separate). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 9World Nuclear News (ed.), NRC issues construction permit for first Natrium plant (news report, 5 March 2026; 18-month review against 27 months initially; completion expected 2030). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 3The White House (ed.), Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Executive Order 14300, 23 May 2025 (goal of 400 GW by 2050 from about 100 GW in 2024; 18-month limit for new reactor decisions; 1-year limit for continued operation). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 10US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), 10 CFR Part 53 rulemaking page (final rule 91 FR 15696; risk-informed, performance-based, technology-inclusive framework; background in NEIMA and the ADVANCE Act). US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 11US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), What is high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU)? (article of 3 December 2024; enrichment 5% to less than 20% U-235; demand could reach 50 metric tons a year by 2035; Piketon more than 100 kg enriched). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 15World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the USA (country profile; 94 operable reactors, 96,952 MWe; Vogtle 3 and 4 cost estimates; Kemmerer permit March 2026; Clinch River construction licence September 2026; Palisades and Crane restart status; page states three reactors critical by July 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 17World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the United Kingdom (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; Rolls-Royce SMR delivery contract April 2026 for three Wylfa units with up to GBP 599 million loan financing; Hinkley Point C GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices, February 2026; Sizewell C). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 25Steigerwald, B., Weibezahn, J., Slowik, M. and von Hirschhausen, C., Uncertainties in estimating production costs of future nuclear technologies: a model-based analysis of small modular reactors, Energy 281, 128204, 2023 (abstract page read). Elsevier, Amsterdam. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 26Steigerwald, B. et al., Future nuclear fission reactors: uncertainties, the effect of parameter choice and an application to small modular reactor concepts, Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal 2, 217, 2023 (abstract page read; 15 concepts; none competes with existing renewables on its assumptions). Copernicus Publications, Gottingen. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 12World Nuclear Association (ed.), Uranium Enrichment (information library page; capacity table from the WNA Nuclear Fuel Report 2025: 68.076 million SWU in 2025, Rosatom 29.133, Urenco 17.300, CNNC 13.789 estimated, Orano 7.500; US ban on Russian low-enriched uranium from August 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is advanced nuclear risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry advanced nuclear shocks into other systems?
• Which advanced nuclear capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five footprint and governance chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The advanced nuclear-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their advanced nuclear content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   TRD → MIN → ENE

   Concentrated enrichment and fuel supply limit new reactor fuel.

   Reported enrichment table and HALEU page¹¹¹²

2. 02

   FIN → INF

   Cost overruns and financing terms set the pace of construction.

   Reported Vogtle and Hinkley Point C records¹⁵¹⁷

3. 03

   GOV → INF

   Licensing frameworks and goals shape what is permitted and built.

   Reported Part 53 and executive orders³¹⁰

4. 04

   INF → ENE

   Delivered units add firm capacity only after first power.

   Inferred fleet and construction counts¹

5. 05

   ENE → WAT

   Siting and cooling tie plants to water sources.

   Inferred not quantified in sources opened

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the World Today (information library page; 443 operable reactors, 405,667 MWe net, about 9% of world electricity, 80 under construction with 87,813 MWe gross; electricity data for 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 8US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), NRC Issues Construction Permit for TerraPower’s Natrium Advanced Reactor (article, 9 March 2026; 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor, storage lifts output to 500 MW; Kemmerer Unit 1, Wyoming; operating licence separate). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 11US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), What is high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU)? (article of 3 December 2024; enrichment 5% to less than 20% U-235; demand could reach 50 metric tons a year by 2035; Piketon more than 100 kg enriched). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 7US Department of Energy (ed.), Department of Energy Celebrates Fourth Criticality Ahead of July 4th Goal (press release, 6 July 2026; Aalo-X, Mark-0, Ward 250 and Unity; zero-power fueled criticality; agency announcement). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 3The White House (ed.), Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Executive Order 14300, 23 May 2025 (goal of 400 GW by 2050 from about 100 GW in 2024; 18-month limit for new reactor decisions; 1-year limit for continued operation). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 10US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), 10 CFR Part 53 rulemaking page (final rule 91 FR 15696; risk-informed, performance-based, technology-inclusive framework; background in NEIMA and the ADVANCE Act). US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 12World Nuclear Association (ed.), Uranium Enrichment (information library page; capacity table from the WNA Nuclear Fuel Report 2025: 68.076 million SWU in 2025, Rosatom 29.133, Urenco 17.300, CNNC 13.789 estimated, Orano 7.500; US ban on Russian low-enriched uranium from August 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 15World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the USA (country profile; 94 operable reactors, 96,952 MWe; Vogtle 3 and 4 cost estimates; Kemmerer permit March 2026; Clinch River construction licence September 2026; Palisades and Crane restart status; page states three reactors critical by July 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 17World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the United Kingdom (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; Rolls-Royce SMR delivery contract April 2026 for three Wylfa units with up to GBP 599 million loan financing; Hinkley Point C GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices, February 2026; Sizewell C). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 25Steigerwald, B., Weibezahn, J., Slowik, M. and von Hirschhausen, C., Uncertainties in estimating production costs of future nuclear technologies: a model-based analysis of small modular reactors, Energy 281, 128204, 2023 (abstract page read). Elsevier, Amsterdam. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 27Krall, L.M., Macfarlane, A.M. and Ewing, R.C., Nuclear waste from small modular reactors, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119(23), e2111833119, 2022 (open-access full text, abstract and conclusions read; waste volume factors of 2 to 30; three designs). National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-003

The US NRC issued a construction permit in March 2026 for the Natrium reactor at Kemmerer, Wyoming: a 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor with a molten-salt storage system that can raise output to 500 MW.

Implication

A commercial non-light-water power reactor has passed construction licensing in the United States. The NRC review ran 18 months against an initial 27-month schedule⁹. The permit does not cover operation: an operating licence application is still needed, and completion is expected in 2030⁹.

What would move it

The operating licence application, first fuel load, delivered cost and the date of first power would each move this finding.

2.2Infrastructure

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

   The world fleet had 443 operable reactors with 405,667 MWe of net capacity in 2025, supplying about 9% of world electricity, and 80 reactors with 87,813 MWe gross were under construction.¹²

2. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

   The US Department of Energy reported that four DOE-authorized advanced test reactors reached zero-power criticality by 4 July 2026, against a goal of three, in company and agency announcements.⁶⁷

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-003

   The NRC issued a construction permit in March 2026 for the 345 MWe Natrium sodium-cooled reactor at Kemmerer, Wyoming, after an 18-month review against an initial 27-month schedule; operation needs a separate licence.⁸⁹

4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-011

   First-of-a-kind small and advanced units are in construction or planning in several countries, including a BWRX-300 at Darlington with operation expected in 2030 and a three-unit Rolls-Royce SMR contract at Wylfa signed in April 2026.^131417181939

2.3Governance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-004

   The NRC published a final rule for 10 CFR Part 53, an optional risk-informed, performance-based and technology-inclusive licensing framework, in 2026.¹⁰³⁷

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-005

   Executive orders of 23 May 2025 set goals of 400 GW of US nuclear capacity by 2050, 5 GW of uprates and 10 large reactors under construction by 2030, and an 18-month limit on new reactor licensing decisions.³⁴

2.4Minerals

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-006

   High-assay low-enriched uranium is enriched to 5% up to less than 20% U-235, DOE estimates US demand could reach 50 tonnes a year by 2035, and the Piketon plant had enriched more than 100 kg by late 2024.¹¹

2.5Trade

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-007

   World enrichment capacity was 68.076 million SWU a year in 2025, with Rosatom holding about 42.8%, and the US prohibited imports of Russian low-enriched uranium from August 2024, subject to waivers.¹²³⁰

2.6Finance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-008

   Recent large reactors ran far over first estimates: Vogtle 3 and 4 at USD 30.34 billion in May 2022 against an initial USD 14 billion, and Hinkley Point C at GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices in February 2026.¹⁵¹⁷²⁰

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009

   A peer-reviewed study of 15 small modular reactor concepts found that none competed economically with existing renewables on its assumptions, and that results depend on the production theory and parameters chosen.²⁵²⁶

2.7WAS

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAS-010

   A peer-reviewed study of three small reactor designs found that water-, molten-salt- and sodium-cooled units would raise the volume of waste needing management by factors of 2 to 30, and argued that volume is not the key metric.²⁷

2.8Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a gap between announced schedules and delivered first-of-a-kind units, with HALEU and enrichment supply as the binding input. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), NRC Issues Construction Permit for TerraPower’s Natrium Advanced Reactor (article, 9 March 2026; 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor, storage lifts output to 500 MW; Kemmerer Unit 1, Wyoming; operating licence separate). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 9World Nuclear News (ed.), NRC issues construction permit for first Natrium plant (news report, 5 March 2026; 18-month review against 27 months initially; completion expected 2030). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the World Today (information library page; 443 operable reactors, 405,667 MWe net, about 9% of world electricity, 80 under construction with 87,813 MWe gross; electricity data for 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 2UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, 2025 edition (377 GW at end of 2024; high case 992 GW and low case 561 GW in 2050), taken from search-result summaries of trade reports; the IAEA page was not retrieved. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 6American Nuclear Society (ed.), The deadline arrives: checking in on the Reactor Pilot Program (news article, 2 July 2026; criticality by Antares 4 June, Valar 18 June, Deployable Energy 1 July; ten companies selected in August 2025; status of the remaining participants). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 7US Department of Energy (ed.), Department of Energy Celebrates Fourth Criticality Ahead of July 4th Goal (press release, 6 July 2026; Aalo-X, Mark-0, Ward 250 and Unity; zero-power fueled criticality; agency announcement). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 13World Nuclear Association (ed.), Small Nuclear Power Reactors (information library page; definition of 300 MWe equivalent or less; microreactors under 20 MWe; the page lists no projects). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 14World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Canada (country profile; Darlington BWRX-300, construction licence April 2025, first nuclear concrete 26 June 2026, operation expected 2030, CAD 20.9 billion for four units; page lists 316 MWe gross and describes 300 MWe). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 17World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the United Kingdom (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; Rolls-Royce SMR delivery contract April 2026 for three Wylfa units with up to GBP 599 million loan financing; Hinkley Point C GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices, February 2026; Sizewell C). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 18World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in China (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 65 reactors, 65,085 MWe operable; 39 under construction; HTR-PM commercial operation December 2023; Linglong One commissioning expected during 2026; 110 GWe target by 2030). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 19World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in South Korea (country profile; 26 operable units, 25,609 MWe; i-SMR 170 MWe design, standard design approval application February 2026, approval targeted 2028; Barakah units in operation, last in September 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ontario Power Generation (ed.), Darlington New Nuclear Project page, the page returned forbidden; Darlington figures are taken from the World Nuclear Association country profile. OPG, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 10US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), 10 CFR Part 53 rulemaking page (final rule 91 FR 15696; risk-informed, performance-based, technology-inclusive framework; background in NEIMA and the ADVANCE Act). US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: ADVANCE Act of 2024, Public Law 118-67, United States Congress, cited from memory without a figure; the NRC Part 53 page names the Act as background. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 3The White House (ed.), Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Executive Order 14300, 23 May 2025 (goal of 400 GW by 2050 from about 100 GW in 2024; 18-month limit for new reactor decisions; 1-year limit for continued operation). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 4The White House (ed.), Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base, Executive Order 14302, 23 May 2025 (5 GW of uprates; 10 new large reactors with complete designs under construction by 2030; fuel, enrichment and spent fuel directions). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 11US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), What is high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU)? (article of 3 December 2024; enrichment 5% to less than 20% U-235; demand could reach 50 metric tons a year by 2035; Piketon more than 100 kg enriched). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 12World Nuclear Association (ed.), Uranium Enrichment (information library page; capacity table from the WNA Nuclear Fuel Report 2025: 68.076 million SWU in 2025, Rosatom 29.133, Urenco 17.300, CNNC 13.789 estimated, Orano 7.500; US ban on Russian low-enriched uranium from August 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD NEA and IAEA (eds.), Uranium 2024: Resources, Production and Demand, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. OECD NEA, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 15World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the USA (country profile; 94 operable reactors, 96,952 MWe; Vogtle 3 and 4 cost estimates; Kemmerer permit March 2026; Clinch River construction licence September 2026; Palisades and Crane restart status; page states three reactors critical by July 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 20World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in France (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 57 operable reactors; EPR2 six units, EUR 72.8 billion estimate of December 2025; Flamanville 3 grid connection December 2024, EUR 13.2 billion estimate of December 2022). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 25Steigerwald, B., Weibezahn, J., Slowik, M. and von Hirschhausen, C., Uncertainties in estimating production costs of future nuclear technologies: a model-based analysis of small modular reactors, Energy 281, 128204, 2023 (abstract page read). Elsevier, Amsterdam. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 26Steigerwald, B. et al., Future nuclear fission reactors: uncertainties, the effect of parameter choice and an application to small modular reactor concepts, Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal 2, 217, 2023 (abstract page read; 15 concepts; none competes with existing renewables on its assumptions). Copernicus Publications, Gottingen. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 27Krall, L.M., Macfarlane, A.M. and Ewing, R.C., Nuclear waste from small modular reactors, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119(23), e2111833119, 2022 (open-access full text, abstract and conclusions read; waste volume factors of 2 to 30; three designs). National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through advanced nuclear, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries advanced nuclear risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on advanced nuclear, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the World Today (information library page; 443 operable reactors, 405,667 MWe net, about 9% of world electricity, 80 under construction with 87,813 MWe gross; electricity data for 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 7US Department of Energy (ed.), Department of Energy Celebrates Fourth Criticality Ahead of July 4th Goal (press release, 6 July 2026; Aalo-X, Mark-0, Ward 250 and Unity; zero-power fueled criticality; agency announcement). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 8US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), NRC Issues Construction Permit for TerraPower’s Natrium Advanced Reactor (article, 9 March 2026; 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor, storage lifts output to 500 MW; Kemmerer Unit 1, Wyoming; operating licence separate). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 11US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), What is high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU)? (article of 3 December 2024; enrichment 5% to less than 20% U-235; demand could reach 50 metric tons a year by 2035; Piketon more than 100 kg enriched). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 12World Nuclear Association (ed.), Uranium Enrichment (information library page; capacity table from the WNA Nuclear Fuel Report 2025: 68.076 million SWU in 2025, Rosatom 29.133, Urenco 17.300, CNNC 13.789 estimated, Orano 7.500; US ban on Russian low-enriched uranium from August 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 15World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the USA (country profile; 94 operable reactors, 96,952 MWe; Vogtle 3 and 4 cost estimates; Kemmerer permit March 2026; Clinch River construction licence September 2026; Palisades and Crane restart status; page states three reactors critical by July 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 17World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the United Kingdom (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; Rolls-Royce SMR delivery contract April 2026 for three Wylfa units with up to GBP 599 million loan financing; Hinkley Point C GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices, February 2026; Sizewell C). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 19World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in South Korea (country profile; 26 operable units, 25,609 MWe; i-SMR 170 MWe design, standard design approval application February 2026, approval targeted 2028; Barakah units in operation, last in September 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Finland (country profile; Olkiluoto 3 contract of EUR 3.2 billion for mid-2009, regular production April 2023; Onkalo operating licence granted October 2026 valid to the end of 2070, after the 30 September evidence close). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 22World Nuclear Association (ed.), Storage and Disposal of Radioactive Wastes (information library page; Finland, Sweden, France and US repository milestones; Cigéo commissioning planned for 2050; Yucca Mountain suspended). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 3The White House (ed.), Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Executive Order 14300, 23 May 2025 (goal of 400 GW by 2050 from about 100 GW in 2024; 18-month limit for new reactor decisions; 1-year limit for continued operation). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 4The White House (ed.), Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base, Executive Order 14302, 23 May 2025 (5 GW of uprates; 10 new large reactors with complete designs under construction by 2030; fuel, enrichment and spent fuel directions). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 10US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), 10 CFR Part 53 rulemaking page (final rule 91 FR 15696; risk-informed, performance-based, technology-inclusive framework; background in NEIMA and the ADVANCE Act). US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 25Steigerwald, B., Weibezahn, J., Slowik, M. and von Hirschhausen, C., Uncertainties in estimating production costs of future nuclear technologies: a model-based analysis of small modular reactors, Energy 281, 128204, 2023 (abstract page read). Elsevier, Amsterdam. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 27Krall, L.M., Macfarlane, A.M. and Ewing, R.C., Nuclear waste from small modular reactors, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119(23), e2111833119, 2022 (open-access full text, abstract and conclusions read; waste volume factors of 2 to 30; three designs). National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. InferredEQL 4RSK-XT15-MIN-001

   Fuel supply chokepoint

   Driver

   HALEU demand estimates and concentrated enrichment¹¹¹²

   Exposure

   designs that need HALEU; reactor developers

   Vulnerability

   few suppliers; restrictions on Russian imports

   Capacity

   Piketon output and recovery of existing material¹¹

   Cascade

   MIN → ENE → FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

2. InferredEQL 4RSK-XT15-FIN-002

   First-of-a-kind cost and delay

   Driver

   cost and schedule records of recent large units¹⁵¹⁷²⁰

   Exposure

   owners, ratepayers and lenders

   Vulnerability

   fixed-price assumptions that rest on modelled costs²⁵

   Capacity

   standardised design and repeat builds

   Cascade

   FIN → INF → ENE

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

3. InferredEQL 3RSK-XT15-WAS-003

   Waste and disposal readiness

   Driver

   waste volumes and fuel chemistry of new designs²⁷

   Exposure

   storage sites and repository programmes

   Vulnerability

   long repository lead times²²

   Capacity

   first operating licence for used-fuel disposal in Finland²¹

   Cascade

   WAS → GOV → FIN

   Horizon

   5 to 10 years

4. Expert inputEQL 3RSK-XT15-GOV-004

   Goals outrun delivery

   Driver

   capacity goals and licensing deadlines³⁴

   Exposure

   planning assumptions of grid operators and governments

   Vulnerability

   dependence on a few first units

   Capacity

   licensing reform and demonstration programmes⁷¹⁰

   Cascade

   GOV → INF → ENE

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for advanced nuclear at the global level.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 11US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), What is high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU)? (article of 3 December 2024; enrichment 5% to less than 20% U-235; demand could reach 50 metric tons a year by 2035; Piketon more than 100 kg enriched). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 12World Nuclear Association (ed.), Uranium Enrichment (information library page; capacity table from the WNA Nuclear Fuel Report 2025: 68.076 million SWU in 2025, Rosatom 29.133, Urenco 17.300, CNNC 13.789 estimated, Orano 7.500; US ban on Russian low-enriched uranium from August 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 15World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the USA (country profile; 94 operable reactors, 96,952 MWe; Vogtle 3 and 4 cost estimates; Kemmerer permit March 2026; Clinch River construction licence September 2026; Palisades and Crane restart status; page states three reactors critical by July 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 17World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the United Kingdom (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; Rolls-Royce SMR delivery contract April 2026 for three Wylfa units with up to GBP 599 million loan financing; Hinkley Point C GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices, February 2026; Sizewell C). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 20World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in France (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 57 operable reactors; EPR2 six units, EUR 72.8 billion estimate of December 2025; Flamanville 3 grid connection December 2024, EUR 13.2 billion estimate of December 2022). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 25Steigerwald, B., Weibezahn, J., Slowik, M. and von Hirschhausen, C., Uncertainties in estimating production costs of future nuclear technologies: a model-based analysis of small modular reactors, Energy 281, 128204, 2023 (abstract page read). Elsevier, Amsterdam. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 27Krall, L.M., Macfarlane, A.M. and Ewing, R.C., Nuclear waste from small modular reactors, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119(23), e2111833119, 2022 (open-access full text, abstract and conclusions read; waste volume factors of 2 to 30; three designs). National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 22World Nuclear Association (ed.), Storage and Disposal of Radioactive Wastes (information library page; Finland, Sweden, France and US repository milestones; Cigéo commissioning planned for 2050; Yucca Mountain suspended). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Finland (country profile; Olkiluoto 3 contract of EUR 3.2 billion for mid-2009, regular production April 2023; Onkalo operating licence granted October 2026 valid to the end of 2070, after the 30 September evidence close). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 3The White House (ed.), Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Executive Order 14300, 23 May 2025 (goal of 400 GW by 2050 from about 100 GW in 2024; 18-month limit for new reactor decisions; 1-year limit for continued operation). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 4The White House (ed.), Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base, Executive Order 14302, 23 May 2025 (5 GW of uprates; 10 new large reactors with complete designs under construction by 2030; fuel, enrichment and spent fuel directions). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 7US Department of Energy (ed.), Department of Energy Celebrates Fourth Criticality Ahead of July 4th Goal (press release, 6 July 2026; Aalo-X, Mark-0, Ward 250 and Unity; zero-power fueled criticality; agency announcement). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 10US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), 10 CFR Part 53 rulemaking page (final rule 91 FR 15696; risk-informed, performance-based, technology-inclusive framework; background in NEIMA and the ADVANCE Act). US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 8US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), NRC Issues Construction Permit for TerraPower’s Natrium Advanced Reactor (article, 9 March 2026; 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor, storage lifts output to 500 MW; Kemmerer Unit 1, Wyoming; operating licence separate). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 1World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the World Today (information library page; 443 operable reactors, 405,667 MWe net, about 9% of world electricity, 80 under construction with 87,813 MWe gross; electricity data for 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-XT15-FUE-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

several first-of-a-kind units reach fuel load in the same years while HALEU output stays below demand

Analogues

schedule and cost records of recent large units¹⁵¹⁷²⁰

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   MIN → ENE

   HALEU output falls short of first-core needs for new designs

   2024

2. 2

   TRD → MIN

   enrichment restrictions narrow supply options

   2025

3. 3

   ENE → FIN

   first-of-a-kind schedules slip and costs rise

   2022

4. 4

   FIN → INF

   lenders reprice later projects

   2026

5. 5

   GOV → INF

   goals and licensing deadlines meet delivery limits

   2025

6. 6

   INF → ENE

   firm capacity arrives later than plans assumed

   2026

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-XT15-FUE-01 would travel through Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission 2026, scenario SCN-XT15-FUE-01 (2026); Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 15World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the USA (country profile; 94 operable reactors, 96,952 MWe; Vogtle 3 and 4 cost estimates; Kemmerer permit March 2026; Clinch River construction licence September 2026; Palisades and Crane restart status; page states three reactors critical by July 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 17World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the United Kingdom (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; Rolls-Royce SMR delivery contract April 2026 for three Wylfa units with up to GBP 599 million loan financing; Hinkley Point C GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices, February 2026; Sizewell C). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 20World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in France (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 57 operable reactors; EPR2 six units, EUR 72.8 billion estimate of December 2025; Flamanville 3 grid connection December 2024, EUR 13.2 billion estimate of December 2022). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for advanced nuclear. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 advanced nuclear readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• PUBLISHED
• DRAFT
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers advanced nuclear assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about advanced nuclear and next-generation fission and its couplings?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed journals; regulator and agency pages; executive orders and rules; industry association and intergovernmental overviews

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 10US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), 10 CFR Part 53 rulemaking page (final rule 91 FR 15696; risk-informed, performance-based, technology-inclusive framework; background in NEIMA and the ADVANCE Act). US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3The White House (ed.), Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Executive Order 14300, 23 May 2025 (goal of 400 GW by 2050 from about 100 GW in 2024; 18-month limit for new reactor decisions; 1-year limit for continued operation). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 5UNVERIFIED, not opened: The White House (ed.), Reforming Nuclear Reactor Testing at the Department of Energy, Executive Order 14301, 23 May 2025, the page address returned not found; the goal of three reactors achieving criticality by 4 July 2026 is taken from the American Nuclear Society report. The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 4The White House (ed.), Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base, Executive Order 14302, 23 May 2025 (5 GW of uprates; 10 new large reactors with complete designs under construction by 2030; fuel, enrichment and spent fuel directions). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: ADVANCE Act of 2024, Public Law 118-67, United States Congress, cited from memory without a figure; the NRC Part 53 page names the Act as background. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 12World Nuclear Association (ed.), Uranium Enrichment (information library page; capacity table from the WNA Nuclear Fuel Report 2025: 68.076 million SWU in 2025, Rosatom 29.133, Urenco 17.300, CNNC 13.789 estimated, Orano 7.500; US ban on Russian low-enriched uranium from August 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 14World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Canada (country profile; Darlington BWRX-300, construction licence April 2025, first nuclear concrete 26 June 2026, operation expected 2030, CAD 20.9 billion for four units; page lists 316 MWe gross and describes 300 MWe). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 19World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in South Korea (country profile; 26 operable units, 25,609 MWe; i-SMR 170 MWe design, standard design approval application February 2026, approval targeted 2028; Barakah units in operation, last in September 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Generation IV International Forum (ed.), Generation IV systems, the page address returned not found; the forum and its six concepts are described in the World Nuclear Association page. GIF, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Complementary Climate Delegated Act on nuclear and gas activities in the EU taxonomy, 2022, cited from memory without a figure. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 8US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), NRC Issues Construction Permit for TerraPower’s Natrium Advanced Reactor (article, 9 March 2026; 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor, storage lifts output to 500 MW; Kemmerer Unit 1, Wyoming; operating licence separate). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Finland (country profile; Olkiluoto 3 contract of EUR 3.2 billion for mid-2009, regular production April 2023; Onkalo operating licence granted October 2026 valid to the end of 2070, after the 30 September evidence close). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 25Steigerwald, B., Weibezahn, J., Slowik, M. and von Hirschhausen, C., Uncertainties in estimating production costs of future nuclear technologies: a model-based analysis of small modular reactors, Energy 281, 128204, 2023 (abstract page read). Elsevier, Amsterdam. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 26Steigerwald, B. et al., Future nuclear fission reactors: uncertainties, the effect of parameter choice and an application to small modular reactor concepts, Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal 2, 217, 2023 (abstract page read; 15 concepts; none competes with existing renewables on its assumptions). Copernicus Publications, Gottingen. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 27Krall, L.M., Macfarlane, A.M. and Ewing, R.C., Nuclear waste from small modular reactors, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119(23), e2111833119, 2022 (open-access full text, abstract and conclusions read; waste volume factors of 2 to 30; three designs). National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Working Group III, chapter 6, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Life Cycle Assessment of Electricity Generation Options, 2021, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 7US Department of Energy (ed.), Department of Energy Celebrates Fourth Criticality Ahead of July 4th Goal (press release, 6 July 2026; Aalo-X, Mark-0, Ward 250 and Unity; zero-power fueled criticality; agency announcement). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 11US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), What is high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU)? (article of 3 December 2024; enrichment 5% to less than 20% U-235; demand could reach 50 metric tons a year by 2035; Piketon more than 100 kg enriched). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 24US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (programme page; USD 160 million initial funding; demonstrations within 7 years of award; ARC 20 designs for the mid-2030s). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), NuScale US460 standard design approval page, the page address returned not found; the approval is cited from memory without a figure. US NRC, Rockville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Kairos Power Hermes test reactor licensing page, the page address returned not found; no figure from it is used. US NRC, Rockville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ontario Power Generation (ed.), Darlington New Nuclear Project page, the page returned forbidden; Darlington figures are taken from the World Nuclear Association country profile. OPG, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy, COP28, December 2023, cited from memory without a figure. Signatory national governments. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank Group (ed.), press release on ending the ban on financing nuclear energy, June 2025, the page address returned not found; cited from memory without a figure. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 1World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the World Today (information library page; 443 operable reactors, 405,667 MWe net, about 9% of world electricity, 80 under construction with 87,813 MWe gross; electricity data for 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 2UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, 2025 edition (377 GW at end of 2024; high case 992 GW and low case 561 GW in 2050), taken from search-result summaries of trade reports; the IAEA page was not retrieved. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy, January 2025, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (ed.), The NEA Small Modular Reactor Dashboard, second edition, the page returned a service error; no figure from it is used. OECD NEA, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD NEA and IAEA (eds.), Uranium 2024: Resources, Production and Demand, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. OECD NEA, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Advances in Small Modular Reactor Technology Developments, 2022 edition, cited from memory without a figure. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Power Reactor Information System, the analytics page returned only its title; no figure from it is used. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 15World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the USA (country profile; 94 operable reactors, 96,952 MWe; Vogtle 3 and 4 cost estimates; Kemmerer permit March 2026; Clinch River construction licence September 2026; Palisades and Crane restart status; page states three reactors critical by July 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 17World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the United Kingdom (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; Rolls-Royce SMR delivery contract April 2026 for three Wylfa units with up to GBP 599 million loan financing; Hinkley Point C GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices, February 2026; Sizewell C). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 20World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in France (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 57 operable reactors; EPR2 six units, EUR 72.8 billion estimate of December 2025; Flamanville 3 grid connection December 2024, EUR 13.2 billion estimate of December 2022). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 22World Nuclear Association (ed.), Storage and Disposal of Radioactive Wastes (information library page; Finland, Sweden, France and US repository milestones; Cigéo commissioning planned for 2050; Yucca Mountain suspended). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 18World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in China (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 65 reactors, 65,085 MWe operable; 39 under construction; HTR-PM commercial operation December 2023; Linglong One commissioning expected during 2026; 110 GWe target by 2030). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. Q-01

   How much enrichment and HALEU capacity will exist each year to 2030, and where are the chokepoints?

   INI-XT15-FUE-01 · fuel supply; first output: fuel supply map.

2. Q-02

   How do announced schedules compare with delivered first-of-a-kind units?

   INI-XT15-DLV-02 · schedule against delivery; first output: schedule-against-delivery table.

3. Q-03

   How do waste and spent-fuel volumes of advanced designs compare on a common basis?

   INI-XT15-WST-03 · waste on a common basis; first output: waste comparison table.

4. Q-04

   What do first-of-a-kind and later units cost on a common basis, and what was assumed?

   INI-XT15-CST-04 · cost on a common basis; first output: cost table.

5. Q-05

   How long do licensing reviews take under Part 53 and in other jurisdictions?

   INI-XT15-LIC-05 · licensing pace; first output: review-time table.

6. Q-06

   Which national fuel-cycle and uranium supply data can be bound from primary sources?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: data gap register.

7. Q-07

   What workforce and fabrication capacity exists for reactor construction and fuel production?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. Q-08

   Which readiness capabilities have been tested in real projects, and which are only planned?

   Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 advanced nuclear portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The advanced nuclear edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on energy, minerals and supply chains, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and lifeline editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National readiness chapters

   nuclear programme and fuel readiness in each national edition

   IN PREPARATION · national baselines

2. 02

   Sector couplings

   GS-02 energy · SR-04 minerals · SR-03 supply chains

   GS-02 DRAFTED · sector baselines

3. 03

   Technology system model

   reactors, fuel cycle, siting, waste, licensing

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Strategic links

   SR-02 lifeline systems · SR-13 strategic technology

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   XT-15 report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the advanced nuclear candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-XT15-2027-01 · Fuel and delivery Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 7US Department of Energy (ed.), Department of Energy Celebrates Fourth Criticality Ahead of July 4th Goal (press release, 6 July 2026; Aalo-X, Mark-0, Ward 250 and Unity; zero-power fueled criticality; agency announcement). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 8US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), NRC Issues Construction Permit for TerraPower’s Natrium Advanced Reactor (article, 9 March 2026; 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor, storage lifts output to 500 MW; Kemmerer Unit 1, Wyoming; operating licence separate). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Finland (country profile; Olkiluoto 3 contract of EUR 3.2 billion for mid-2009, regular production April 2023; Onkalo operating licence granted October 2026 valid to the end of 2070, after the 30 September evidence close). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Reactor designs and deployment

The fleet is large and mature. New designs are at the demonstration stage, with test reactors, one construction permit for a sodium-cooled power reactor and first small units in construction or contract.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
• XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

8.2Siting, cooling, heat and waste

Reactors need sites, cooling and a route for used fuel. Waste volume of new designs is contested, and the first operating licence for used-fuel disposal was granted in Finland in October 2026.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
• XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

8.3Fuel, enrichment and materials

Many new designs need HALEU. Enrichment capacity is concentrated, and the United States restricts imports of Russian low-enriched uranium.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
• XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

8.4Economy, cost and workforce

Recent large reactors ran far over first estimates. Small-reactor costs are modelled, contested and not yet delivered.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
• XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

8.5Safety, licensing and governance watch

Licensing is the main public lever. The United States has published a technology-inclusive framework and set goals, and other regulators are reviewing first designs.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
• XT-16 Advanced Energy Storage
• SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the World Today (information library page; 443 operable reactors, 405,667 MWe net, about 9% of world electricity, 80 under construction with 87,813 MWe gross; electricity data for 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 7US Department of Energy (ed.), Department of Energy Celebrates Fourth Criticality Ahead of July 4th Goal (press release, 6 July 2026; Aalo-X, Mark-0, Ward 250 and Unity; zero-power fueled criticality; agency announcement). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 8US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), NRC Issues Construction Permit for TerraPower’s Natrium Advanced Reactor (article, 9 March 2026; 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor, storage lifts output to 500 MW; Kemmerer Unit 1, Wyoming; operating licence separate). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6American Nuclear Society (ed.), The deadline arrives: checking in on the Reactor Pilot Program (news article, 2 July 2026; criticality by Antares 4 June, Valar 18 June, Deployable Energy 1 July; ten companies selected in August 2025; status of the remaining participants). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 14World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Canada (country profile; Darlington BWRX-300, construction licence April 2025, first nuclear concrete 26 June 2026, operation expected 2030, CAD 20.9 billion for four units; page lists 316 MWe gross and describes 300 MWe). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 17World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the United Kingdom (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; Rolls-Royce SMR delivery contract April 2026 for three Wylfa units with up to GBP 599 million loan financing; Hinkley Point C GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices, February 2026; Sizewell C). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 18World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in China (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 65 reactors, 65,085 MWe operable; 39 under construction; HTR-PM commercial operation December 2023; Linglong One commissioning expected during 2026; 110 GWe target by 2030). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 19World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in South Korea (country profile; 26 operable units, 25,609 MWe; i-SMR 170 MWe design, standard design approval application February 2026, approval targeted 2028; Barakah units in operation, last in September 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 16POST-CLOSE, context only: World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Russia (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 34 operable reactors, 27,969 MWe; BREST-OD-300 under construction since June 2021; Akademik Lomonosov 2 x 32 MWe, grid connection December 2019; Indonesia agreement October 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 23World Nuclear Association (ed.), Advanced Nuclear Power Reactors (information library page, updated November 2025; Generation IV forum set up in 2001 with six concepts; sodium-cooled and lead-cooled fast reactors; molten salt reactors not covered). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 27Krall, L.M., Macfarlane, A.M. and Ewing, R.C., Nuclear waste from small modular reactors, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119(23), e2111833119, 2022 (open-access full text, abstract and conclusions read; waste volume factors of 2 to 30; three designs). National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Finland (country profile; Olkiluoto 3 contract of EUR 3.2 billion for mid-2009, regular production April 2023; Onkalo operating licence granted October 2026 valid to the end of 2070, after the 30 September evidence close). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 22World Nuclear Association (ed.), Storage and Disposal of Radioactive Wastes (information library page; Finland, Sweden, France and US repository milestones; Cigéo commissioning planned for 2050; Yucca Mountain suspended). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 11US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), What is high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU)? (article of 3 December 2024; enrichment 5% to less than 20% U-235; demand could reach 50 metric tons a year by 2035; Piketon more than 100 kg enriched). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 12World Nuclear Association (ed.), Uranium Enrichment (information library page; capacity table from the WNA Nuclear Fuel Report 2025: 68.076 million SWU in 2025, Rosatom 29.133, Urenco 17.300, CNNC 13.789 estimated, Orano 7.500; US ban on Russian low-enriched uranium from August 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 15World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the USA (country profile; 94 operable reactors, 96,952 MWe; Vogtle 3 and 4 cost estimates; Kemmerer permit March 2026; Clinch River construction licence September 2026; Palisades and Crane restart status; page states three reactors critical by July 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 20World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in France (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 57 operable reactors; EPR2 six units, EUR 72.8 billion estimate of December 2025; Flamanville 3 grid connection December 2024, EUR 13.2 billion estimate of December 2022). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 25Steigerwald, B., Weibezahn, J., Slowik, M. and von Hirschhausen, C., Uncertainties in estimating production costs of future nuclear technologies: a model-based analysis of small modular reactors, Energy 281, 128204, 2023 (abstract page read). Elsevier, Amsterdam. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 26Steigerwald, B. et al., Future nuclear fission reactors: uncertainties, the effect of parameter choice and an application to small modular reactor concepts, Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal 2, 217, 2023 (abstract page read; 15 concepts; none competes with existing renewables on its assumptions). Copernicus Publications, Gottingen. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 3The White House (ed.), Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Executive Order 14300, 23 May 2025 (goal of 400 GW by 2050 from about 100 GW in 2024; 18-month limit for new reactor decisions; 1-year limit for continued operation). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 10US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), 10 CFR Part 53 rulemaking page (final rule 91 FR 15696; risk-informed, performance-based, technology-inclusive framework; background in NEIMA and the ADVANCE Act). US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 4The White House (ed.), Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base, Executive Order 14302, 23 May 2025 (5 GW of uprates; 10 new large reactors with complete designs under construction by 2030; fuel, enrichment and spent fuel directions). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy, COP28, December 2023, cited from memory without a figure. Signatory national governments. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Complementary Climate Delegated Act on nuclear and gas activities in the EU taxonomy, 2022, cited from memory without a figure. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Advanced nuclear System Model v0

Model ID

MDL-XT15-FISSION · v0.1

Purpose

represent advanced nuclear fission as infrastructure coupled to energy, fuel supply and enrichment, siting and waste, finance, workforce and licensing

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

42 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 advanced nuclear annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• DOE⁸: operating licence application and fuel-load plan
• World Nuclear Association¹²: fuel report method and source tables
• IAEA²: report text for 2050 cases
• NRC¹⁰: first application under the new framework

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: enrichment capacity

Construct

annual separative work capacity of uranium enrichment plants, by operator

Unit

million separative work units (SWU) a year

Method

operator capacity as compiled in a 2025 industry fuel report and shown on the page

Source

World Nuclear Association enrichment page¹²

Uncertainty

China values are estimates that assume enough capacity is built for its domestic fleet

Known limits

capacity is not output; shares are derived by the editors, method (1)

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 15World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the USA (country profile; 94 operable reactors, 96,952 MWe; Vogtle 3 and 4 cost estimates; Kemmerer permit March 2026; Clinch River construction licence September 2026; Palisades and Crane restart status; page states three reactors critical by July 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 17World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the United Kingdom (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; Rolls-Royce SMR delivery contract April 2026 for three Wylfa units with up to GBP 599 million loan financing; Hinkley Point C GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices, February 2026; Sizewell C). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 25Steigerwald, B., Weibezahn, J., Slowik, M. and von Hirschhausen, C., Uncertainties in estimating production costs of future nuclear technologies: a model-based analysis of small modular reactors, Energy 281, 128204, 2023 (abstract page read). Elsevier, Amsterdam. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 11US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), What is high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU)? (article of 3 December 2024; enrichment 5% to less than 20% U-235; demand could reach 50 metric tons a year by 2035; Piketon more than 100 kg enriched). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 2UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, 2025 edition (377 GW at end of 2024; high case 992 GW and low case 561 GW in 2050), taken from search-result summaries of trade reports; the IAEA page was not retrieved. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 5UNVERIFIED, not opened: The White House (ed.), Reforming Nuclear Reactor Testing at the Department of Energy, Executive Order 14301, 23 May 2025, the page address returned not found; the goal of three reactors achieving criticality by 4 July 2026 is taken from the American Nuclear Society report. The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 6American Nuclear Society (ed.), The deadline arrives: checking in on the Reactor Pilot Program (news article, 2 July 2026; criticality by Antares 4 June, Valar 18 June, Deployable Energy 1 July; ten companies selected in August 2025; status of the remaining participants). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 18World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in China (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 65 reactors, 65,085 MWe operable; 39 under construction; HTR-PM commercial operation December 2023; Linglong One commissioning expected during 2026; 110 GWe target by 2030). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (ed.), The NEA Small Modular Reactor Dashboard, second edition, the page returned a service error; no figure from it is used. OECD NEA, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Advances in Small Modular Reactor Technology Developments, 2022 edition, cited from memory without a figure. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD NEA and IAEA (eds.), Uranium 2024: Resources, Production and Demand, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. OECD NEA, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Life Cycle Assessment of Electricity Generation Options, 2021, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Working Group III, chapter 6, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 14World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Canada (country profile; Darlington BWRX-300, construction licence April 2025, first nuclear concrete 26 June 2026, operation expected 2030, CAD 20.9 billion for four units; page lists 316 MWe gross and describes 300 MWe). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), NuScale US460 standard design approval page, the page address returned not found; the approval is cited from memory without a figure. US NRC, Rockville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Kairos Power Hermes test reactor licensing page, the page address returned not found; no figure from it is used. US NRC, Rockville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ontario Power Generation (ed.), Darlington New Nuclear Project page, the page returned forbidden; Darlington figures are taken from the World Nuclear Association country profile. OPG, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 8US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), NRC Issues Construction Permit for TerraPower’s Natrium Advanced Reactor (article, 9 March 2026; 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor, storage lifts output to 500 MW; Kemmerer Unit 1, Wyoming; operating licence separate). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 12World Nuclear Association (ed.), Uranium Enrichment (information library page; capacity table from the WNA Nuclear Fuel Report 2025: 68.076 million SWU in 2025, Rosatom 29.133, Urenco 17.300, CNNC 13.789 estimated, Orano 7.500; US ban on Russian low-enriched uranium from August 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 10US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), 10 CFR Part 53 rulemaking page (final rule 91 FR 15696; risk-informed, performance-based, technology-inclusive framework; background in NEIMA and the ADVANCE Act). US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• INF
• MIN
• FIN
• TRD
• ENE
• CLI
• GOV
• WAT
• HLT
• FOO

B.3Regional reading, advanced nuclear across ten clusters

Regional plates follow with the regional editions. This page gives the regional reading of advanced nuclear infrastructure and fuel exposure in table form and orders no region.

B.4Cluster card: enrichment and HALEU supply chain

• fuel supply
• enrichment
• HALEU
• single point

Systems in view

enrichment plants, deconversion, fuel fabrication, reactor developers

Defining events

US ban on Russian low-enriched uranium imports from August 2024¹²

Couplings

MIN → ENE fuel; TRD → MIN restrictions

Capability evidence

Piketon centrifuge cascade and recovery of existing material reported by DOE¹¹

Gaps

HALEU output by year; reserves; fabrication capacity

Agenda items

Q-01 · Q-04

B.5How countries appear in the advanced nuclear edition

Countries enter the advanced nuclear edition through the readiness chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ordered.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the World Today (information library page; 443 operable reactors, 405,667 MWe net, about 9% of world electricity, 80 under construction with 87,813 MWe gross; electricity data for 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 7US Department of Energy (ed.), Department of Energy Celebrates Fourth Criticality Ahead of July 4th Goal (press release, 6 July 2026; Aalo-X, Mark-0, Ward 250 and Unity; zero-power fueled criticality; agency announcement). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 8US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), NRC Issues Construction Permit for TerraPower’s Natrium Advanced Reactor (article, 9 March 2026; 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor, storage lifts output to 500 MW; Kemmerer Unit 1, Wyoming; operating licence separate). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 9World Nuclear News (ed.), NRC issues construction permit for first Natrium plant (news report, 5 March 2026; 18-month review against 27 months initially; completion expected 2030). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 11US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), What is high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU)? (article of 3 December 2024; enrichment 5% to less than 20% U-235; demand could reach 50 metric tons a year by 2035; Piketon more than 100 kg enriched). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 12World Nuclear Association (ed.), Uranium Enrichment (information library page; capacity table from the WNA Nuclear Fuel Report 2025: 68.076 million SWU in 2025, Rosatom 29.133, Urenco 17.300, CNNC 13.789 estimated, Orano 7.500; US ban on Russian low-enriched uranium from August 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 15World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the USA (country profile; 94 operable reactors, 96,952 MWe; Vogtle 3 and 4 cost estimates; Kemmerer permit March 2026; Clinch River construction licence September 2026; Palisades and Crane restart status; page states three reactors critical by July 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 17World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the United Kingdom (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; Rolls-Royce SMR delivery contract April 2026 for three Wylfa units with up to GBP 599 million loan financing; Hinkley Point C GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices, February 2026; Sizewell C). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 20World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in France (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 57 operable reactors; EPR2 six units, EUR 72.8 billion estimate of December 2025; Flamanville 3 grid connection December 2024, EUR 13.2 billion estimate of December 2022). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 14World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Canada (country profile; Darlington BWRX-300, construction licence April 2025, first nuclear concrete 26 June 2026, operation expected 2030, CAD 20.9 billion for four units; page lists 316 MWe gross and describes 300 MWe). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 2UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, 2025 edition (377 GW at end of 2024; high case 992 GW and low case 561 GW in 2050), taken from search-result summaries of trade reports; the IAEA page was not retrieved. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 3The White House (ed.), Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Executive Order 14300, 23 May 2025 (goal of 400 GW by 2050 from about 100 GW in 2024; 18-month limit for new reactor decisions; 1-year limit for continued operation). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 4The White House (ed.), Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base, Executive Order 14302, 23 May 2025 (5 GW of uprates; 10 new large reactors with complete designs under construction by 2030; fuel, enrichment and spent fuel directions). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 5UNVERIFIED, not opened: The White House (ed.), Reforming Nuclear Reactor Testing at the Department of Energy, Executive Order 14301, 23 May 2025, the page address returned not found; the goal of three reactors achieving criticality by 4 July 2026 is taken from the American Nuclear Society report. The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 6American Nuclear Society (ed.), The deadline arrives: checking in on the Reactor Pilot Program (news article, 2 July 2026; criticality by Antares 4 June, Valar 18 June, Deployable Energy 1 July; ten companies selected in August 2025; status of the remaining participants). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 10US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), 10 CFR Part 53 rulemaking page (final rule 91 FR 15696; risk-informed, performance-based, technology-inclusive framework; background in NEIMA and the ADVANCE Act). US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Finland (country profile; Olkiluoto 3 contract of EUR 3.2 billion for mid-2009, regular production April 2023; Onkalo operating licence granted October 2026 valid to the end of 2070, after the 30 September evidence close). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 25Steigerwald, B., Weibezahn, J., Slowik, M. and von Hirschhausen, C., Uncertainties in estimating production costs of future nuclear technologies: a model-based analysis of small modular reactors, Energy 281, 128204, 2023 (abstract page read). Elsevier, Amsterdam. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 26Steigerwald, B. et al., Future nuclear fission reactors: uncertainties, the effect of parameter choice and an application to small modular reactor concepts, Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal 2, 217, 2023 (abstract page read; 15 concepts; none competes with existing renewables on its assumptions). Copernicus Publications, Gottingen. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 27Krall, L.M., Macfarlane, A.M. and Ewing, R.C., Nuclear waste from small modular reactors, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119(23), e2111833119, 2022 (open-access full text, abstract and conclusions read; waste volume factors of 2 to 30; three designs). National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 16POST-CLOSE, context only: World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Russia (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 34 operable reactors, 27,969 MWe; BREST-OD-300 under construction since June 2021; Akademik Lomonosov 2 x 32 MWe, grid connection December 2019; Indonesia agreement October 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 23World Nuclear Association (ed.), Advanced Nuclear Power Reactors (information library page, updated November 2025; Generation IV forum set up in 2001 with six concepts; sodium-cooled and lead-cooled fast reactors; molten salt reactors not covered). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 19World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in South Korea (country profile; 26 operable units, 25,609 MWe; i-SMR 170 MWe design, standard design approval application February 2026, approval targeted 2028; Barakah units in operation, last in September 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 18World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in China (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 65 reactors, 65,085 MWe operable; 39 under construction; HTR-PM commercial operation December 2023; Linglong One commissioning expected during 2026; 110 GWe target by 2030). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.142 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the World Today (information library page; 443 operable reactors, 405,667 MWe net, about 9% of world electricity, 80 under construction with 87,813 MWe gross; electricity data for 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, 2025 edition (377 GW at end of 2024; high case 992 GW and low case 561 GW in 2050), taken from search-result summaries of trade reports; the IAEA page was not retrieved. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
3. 3The White House (ed.), Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Executive Order 14300, 23 May 2025 (goal of 400 GW by 2050 from about 100 GW in 2024; 18-month limit for new reactor decisions; 1-year limit for continued operation). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
4. 4The White House (ed.), Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base, Executive Order 14302, 23 May 2025 (5 GW of uprates; 10 new large reactors with complete designs under construction by 2030; fuel, enrichment and spent fuel directions). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5UNVERIFIED, not opened: The White House (ed.), Reforming Nuclear Reactor Testing at the Department of Energy, Executive Order 14301, 23 May 2025, the page address returned not found; the goal of three reactors achieving criticality by 4 July 2026 is taken from the American Nuclear Society report. The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
6. 6American Nuclear Society (ed.), The deadline arrives: checking in on the Reactor Pilot Program (news article, 2 July 2026; criticality by Antares 4 June, Valar 18 June, Deployable Energy 1 July; ten companies selected in August 2025; status of the remaining participants). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 8
7. 7US Department of Energy (ed.), Department of Energy Celebrates Fourth Criticality Ahead of July 4th Goal (press release, 6 July 2026; Aalo-X, Mark-0, Ward 250 and Unity; zero-power fueled criticality; agency announcement). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
8. 8US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), NRC Issues Construction Permit for TerraPower’s Natrium Advanced Reactor (article, 9 March 2026; 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor, storage lifts output to 500 MW; Kemmerer Unit 1, Wyoming; operating licence separate). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
9. 9World Nuclear News (ed.), NRC issues construction permit for first Natrium plant (news report, 5 March 2026; 18-month review against 27 months initially; completion expected 2030). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2
10. 10US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), 10 CFR Part 53 rulemaking page (final rule 91 FR 15696; risk-informed, performance-based, technology-inclusive framework; background in NEIMA and the ADVANCE Act). US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), What is high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU)? (article of 3 December 2024; enrichment 5% to less than 20% U-235; demand could reach 50 metric tons a year by 2035; Piketon more than 100 kg enriched). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
12. 12World Nuclear Association (ed.), Uranium Enrichment (information library page; capacity table from the WNA Nuclear Fuel Report 2025: 68.076 million SWU in 2025, Rosatom 29.133, Urenco 17.300, CNNC 13.789 estimated, Orano 7.500; US ban on Russian low-enriched uranium from August 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13World Nuclear Association (ed.), Small Nuclear Power Reactors (information library page; definition of 300 MWe equivalent or less; microreactors under 20 MWe; the page lists no projects). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2
14. 14World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Canada (country profile; Darlington BWRX-300, construction licence April 2025, first nuclear concrete 26 June 2026, operation expected 2030, CAD 20.9 billion for four units; page lists 316 MWe gross and describes 300 MWe). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
15. 15World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the USA (country profile; 94 operable reactors, 96,952 MWe; Vogtle 3 and 4 cost estimates; Kemmerer permit March 2026; Clinch River construction licence September 2026; Palisades and Crane restart status; page states three reactors critical by July 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
16. 16POST-CLOSE, context only: World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Russia (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 34 operable reactors, 27,969 MWe; BREST-OD-300 under construction since June 2021; Akademik Lomonosov 2 x 32 MWe, grid connection December 2019; Indonesia agreement October 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
17. 17World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the United Kingdom (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; Rolls-Royce SMR delivery contract April 2026 for three Wylfa units with up to GBP 599 million loan financing; Hinkley Point C GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices, February 2026; Sizewell C). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
18. 18World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in China (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 65 reactors, 65,085 MWe operable; 39 under construction; HTR-PM commercial operation December 2023; Linglong One commissioning expected during 2026; 110 GWe target by 2030). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
19. 19World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in South Korea (country profile; 26 operable units, 25,609 MWe; i-SMR 170 MWe design, standard design approval application February 2026, approval targeted 2028; Barakah units in operation, last in September 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
20. 20World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in France (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 57 operable reactors; EPR2 six units, EUR 72.8 billion estimate of December 2025; Flamanville 3 grid connection December 2024, EUR 13.2 billion estimate of December 2022). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
21. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Finland (country profile; Olkiluoto 3 contract of EUR 3.2 billion for mid-2009, regular production April 2023; Onkalo operating licence granted October 2026 valid to the end of 2070, after the 30 September evidence close). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
22. 22World Nuclear Association (ed.), Storage and Disposal of Radioactive Wastes (information library page; Finland, Sweden, France and US repository milestones; Cigéo commissioning planned for 2050; Yucca Mountain suspended). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
23. 23World Nuclear Association (ed.), Advanced Nuclear Power Reactors (information library page, updated November 2025; Generation IV forum set up in 2001 with six concepts; sodium-cooled and lead-cooled fast reactors; molten salt reactors not covered). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
24. 24US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (programme page; USD 160 million initial funding; demonstrations within 7 years of award; ARC 20 designs for the mid-2030s). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
25. 25Steigerwald, B., Weibezahn, J., Slowik, M. and von Hirschhausen, C., Uncertainties in estimating production costs of future nuclear technologies: a model-based analysis of small modular reactors, Energy 281, 128204, 2023 (abstract page read). Elsevier, Amsterdam. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
26. 26Steigerwald, B. et al., Future nuclear fission reactors: uncertainties, the effect of parameter choice and an application to small modular reactor concepts, Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal 2, 217, 2023 (abstract page read; 15 concepts; none competes with existing renewables on its assumptions). Copernicus Publications, Gottingen. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
27. 27Krall, L.M., Macfarlane, A.M. and Ewing, R.C., Nuclear waste from small modular reactors, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119(23), e2111833119, 2022 (open-access full text, abstract and conclusions read; waste volume factors of 2 to 30; three designs). National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy, January 2025, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (ed.), The NEA Small Modular Reactor Dashboard, second edition, the page returned a service error; no figure from it is used. OECD NEA, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD NEA and IAEA (eds.), Uranium 2024: Resources, Production and Demand, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. OECD NEA, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), NuScale US460 standard design approval page, the page address returned not found; the approval is cited from memory without a figure. US NRC, Rockville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Power Reactor Information System, the analytics page returned only its title; no figure from it is used. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank Group (ed.), press release on ending the ban on financing nuclear energy, June 2025, the page address returned not found; cited from memory without a figure. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy, COP28, December 2023, cited from memory without a figure. Signatory national governments. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Life Cycle Assessment of Electricity Generation Options, 2021, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Working Group III, chapter 6, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: ADVANCE Act of 2024, Public Law 118-67, United States Congress, cited from memory without a figure; the NRC Part 53 page names the Act as background. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Kairos Power Hermes test reactor licensing page, the page address returned not found; no figure from it is used. US NRC, Rockville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ontario Power Generation (ed.), Darlington New Nuclear Project page, the page returned forbidden; Darlington figures are taken from the World Nuclear Association country profile. OPG, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Generation IV International Forum (ed.), Generation IV systems, the page address returned not found; the forum and its six concepts are described in the World Nuclear Association page. GIF, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Complementary Climate Delegated Act on nuclear and gas activities in the EU taxonomy, 2022, cited from memory without a figure. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Advances in Small Modular Reactor Technology Developments, 2022 edition, cited from memory without a figure. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

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