Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

15 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Advanced nuclear is firm infrastructure and a delivery test
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Fuel supply gap while first-of-a-kind units are delayed
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 42 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.142 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the World Today (information library page; 443 operable reactors, 405,667 MWe net, about 9% of world electricity, 80 under construction with 87,813 MWe gross; electricity data for 2025). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, 2025 edition (377 GW at end of 2024; high case 992 GW and low case 561 GW in 2050), taken from search-result summaries of trade reports; the IAEA page was not retrieved. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  3. 3The White House (ed.), Ordering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Executive Order 14300, 23 May 2025 (goal of 400 GW by 2050 from about 100 GW in 2024; 18-month limit for new reactor decisions; 1-year limit for continued operation). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  4. 4The White House (ed.), Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base, Executive Order 14302, 23 May 2025 (5 GW of uprates; 10 new large reactors with complete designs under construction by 2030; fuel, enrichment and spent fuel directions). The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5UNVERIFIED, not opened: The White House (ed.), Reforming Nuclear Reactor Testing at the Department of Energy, Executive Order 14301, 23 May 2025, the page address returned not found; the goal of three reactors achieving criticality by 4 July 2026 is taken from the American Nuclear Society report. The White House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  6. 6American Nuclear Society (ed.), The deadline arrives: checking in on the Reactor Pilot Program (news article, 2 July 2026; criticality by Antares 4 June, Valar 18 June, Deployable Energy 1 July; ten companies selected in August 2025; status of the remaining participants). American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 8
  7. 7US Department of Energy (ed.), Department of Energy Celebrates Fourth Criticality Ahead of July 4th Goal (press release, 6 July 2026; Aalo-X, Mark-0, Ward 250 and Unity; zero-power fueled criticality; agency announcement). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  8. 8US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), NRC Issues Construction Permit for TerraPower’s Natrium Advanced Reactor (article, 9 March 2026; 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor, storage lifts output to 500 MW; Kemmerer Unit 1, Wyoming; operating licence separate). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  9. 9World Nuclear News (ed.), NRC issues construction permit for first Natrium plant (news report, 5 March 2026; 18-month review against 27 months initially; completion expected 2030). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2
  10. 10US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), 10 CFR Part 53 rulemaking page (final rule 91 FR 15696; risk-informed, performance-based, technology-inclusive framework; background in NEIMA and the ADVANCE Act). US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), What is high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU)? (article of 3 December 2024; enrichment 5% to less than 20% U-235; demand could reach 50 metric tons a year by 2035; Piketon more than 100 kg enriched). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12World Nuclear Association (ed.), Uranium Enrichment (information library page; capacity table from the WNA Nuclear Fuel Report 2025: 68.076 million SWU in 2025, Rosatom 29.133, Urenco 17.300, CNNC 13.789 estimated, Orano 7.500; US ban on Russian low-enriched uranium from August 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13World Nuclear Association (ed.), Small Nuclear Power Reactors (information library page; definition of 300 MWe equivalent or less; microreactors under 20 MWe; the page lists no projects). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2
  14. 14World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Canada (country profile; Darlington BWRX-300, construction licence April 2025, first nuclear concrete 26 June 2026, operation expected 2030, CAD 20.9 billion for four units; page lists 316 MWe gross and describes 300 MWe). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  15. 15World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the USA (country profile; 94 operable reactors, 96,952 MWe; Vogtle 3 and 4 cost estimates; Kemmerer permit March 2026; Clinch River construction licence September 2026; Palisades and Crane restart status; page states three reactors critical by July 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16POST-CLOSE, context only: World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Russia (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 34 operable reactors, 27,969 MWe; BREST-OD-300 under construction since June 2021; Akademik Lomonosov 2 x 32 MWe, grid connection December 2019; Indonesia agreement October 2026). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  17. 17World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in the United Kingdom (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; Rolls-Royce SMR delivery contract April 2026 for three Wylfa units with up to GBP 599 million loan financing; Hinkley Point C GBP 35 billion in 2015 prices, February 2026; Sizewell C). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  18. 18World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in China (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 65 reactors, 65,085 MWe operable; 39 under construction; HTR-PM commercial operation December 2023; Linglong One commissioning expected during 2026; 110 GWe target by 2030). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in South Korea (country profile; 26 operable units, 25,609 MWe; i-SMR 170 MWe design, standard design approval application February 2026, approval targeted 2028; Barakah units in operation, last in September 2024). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in France (country profile, first 100,000 characters read; 57 operable reactors; EPR2 six units, EUR 72.8 billion estimate of December 2025; Flamanville 3 grid connection December 2024, EUR 13.2 billion estimate of December 2022). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: World Nuclear Association (ed.), Nuclear Power in Finland (country profile; Olkiluoto 3 contract of EUR 3.2 billion for mid-2009, regular production April 2023; Onkalo operating licence granted October 2026 valid to the end of 2070, after the 30 September evidence close). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  22. 22World Nuclear Association (ed.), Storage and Disposal of Radioactive Wastes (information library page; Finland, Sweden, France and US repository milestones; Cigéo commissioning planned for 2050; Yucca Mountain suspended). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23World Nuclear Association (ed.), Advanced Nuclear Power Reactors (information library page, updated November 2025; Generation IV forum set up in 2001 with six concepts; sodium-cooled and lead-cooled fast reactors; molten salt reactors not covered). World Nuclear Association, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  24. 24US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (ed.), Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (programme page; USD 160 million initial funding; demonstrations within 7 years of award; ARC 20 designs for the mid-2030s). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  25. 25Steigerwald, B., Weibezahn, J., Slowik, M. and von Hirschhausen, C., Uncertainties in estimating production costs of future nuclear technologies: a model-based analysis of small modular reactors, Energy 281, 128204, 2023 (abstract page read). Elsevier, Amsterdam. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26Steigerwald, B. et al., Future nuclear fission reactors: uncertainties, the effect of parameter choice and an application to small modular reactor concepts, Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal 2, 217, 2023 (abstract page read; 15 concepts; none competes with existing renewables on its assumptions). Copernicus Publications, Gottingen. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  27. 27Krall, L.M., Macfarlane, A.M. and Ewing, R.C., Nuclear waste from small modular reactors, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119(23), e2111833119, 2022 (open-access full text, abstract and conclusions read; waste volume factors of 2 to 30; three designs). National Academy of Sciences, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy, January 2025, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (ed.), The NEA Small Modular Reactor Dashboard, second edition, the page returned a service error; no figure from it is used. OECD NEA, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD NEA and IAEA (eds.), Uranium 2024: Resources, Production and Demand, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. OECD NEA, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), NuScale US460 standard design approval page, the page address returned not found; the approval is cited from memory without a figure. US NRC, Rockville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Power Reactor Information System, the analytics page returned only its title; no figure from it is used. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank Group (ed.), press release on ending the ban on financing nuclear energy, June 2025, the page address returned not found; cited from memory without a figure. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy, COP28, December 2023, cited from memory without a figure. Signatory national governments. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Life Cycle Assessment of Electricity Generation Options, 2021, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Working Group III, chapter 6, the page returned forbidden; no figure from it is used. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: ADVANCE Act of 2024, Public Law 118-67, United States Congress, cited from memory without a figure; the NRC Part 53 page names the Act as background. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (ed.), Kairos Power Hermes test reactor licensing page, the page address returned not found; no figure from it is used. US NRC, Rockville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ontario Power Generation (ed.), Darlington New Nuclear Project page, the page returned forbidden; Darlington figures are taken from the World Nuclear Association country profile. OPG, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Generation IV International Forum (ed.), Generation IV systems, the page address returned not found; the forum and its six concepts are described in the World Nuclear Association page. GIF, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Complementary Climate Delegated Act on nuclear and gas activities in the EU taxonomy, 2022, cited from memory without a figure. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Advances in Small Modular Reactor Technology Developments, 2022 edition, cited from memory without a figure. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Exponential Technology Series XT-15
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 advanced nuclear edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
XT-15NR-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-XTC-XT-15-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. XT-15 edition Reports Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-15 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Nuclear and Next-Generation Fission (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-FISSION-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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