Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

7 min read1 figure0 tables20 notesNR-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Earth observation is infrastructure and evidence
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Continuity gap in public Earth observation data
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Earth observation matters to the Nexus programme as infrastructure and as evidence. It is infrastructure because satellites, ground stations, archives and navigation signals must keep working for others to use the data. It is evidence because forests, water, crops, cities and the climate record are read from it. The public base is strong and mostly free. Landsat 8 and 9 together cover the land every 8 days, and Landsat data have been free since 200823. Sentinel-2 states a 5-day revisit at 10 m with 13 bands6. NASA launched the NISAR radar mission on 30 July 2025, with a 12-day coverage cycle and free and open data5. Copernicus services are free and openly accessible7. The record that results is used: a University of Maryland team reported 6.7 million hectares of tropical primary forest lost in 2024, nearly half from fire12. The base is also exposed. Landsat 10 is a pre-launch mission with a 2031 target4. Congress passed NASA Earth Science funding of USD 2,153.0 million for fiscal year 2026 against a request of USD 1,033.2 million24. IATA reports a 220% rise in GPS signal loss events from 2021 to 202423. ESA counts about 40,000 tracked objects in orbit15. Commercial radar and optical fleets are growing, but their figures come from vendors and are weak evidence. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It forecasts no mission date and ranks no country or vendor.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Earth observation baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. Landsat 9, Sentinel-2 and NISAR are flying; Landsat 10 is a 2031 target.2456

    Is public land imaging secure?Reported

  2. Landsat, Copernicus and NISAR data are free and open on stated terms.35710

    Is the data free?Reported

  3. Tropical primary forest loss of 6.7 million hectares in 2024.12

    What does the record show?Reported

  4. GCOS lists 55 variables; coverage by current systems is not bound here.1314

    How much of the climate record is covered?Reported

  5. Counts differ across vendor and agency pages.2021

    Are commercial fleets counted?Reported

  6. Funding stress, navigation interference and crowded orbits.152324

    What threatens use of the data?Reported

  7. National licensing, the EU programme and UN frameworks.222541

    Who sets the rules?Reported

  8. Whether free public data stay continuous while funding and navigation signals are stressed. SCN-XT19-CON-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-009

A University of Maryland team reported 6.7 million hectares of tropical primary forest lost in 2024, nearly half caused by fire, with Brazil accounting for 42% of the loss.

Figure S.1Tropical primary forest loss in 2024
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Loss (million hectares)6.7
Share caused by fire (%, nearly)≈50
Share in Brazil (%)42

Source: WRI release of May 2025 on data produced by the University of Maryland GLAD Lab12. Units differ; shown for scale only.

Observation turns a diffuse loss into a countable one. The data are described as capturing changes at about 30 m resolution, and the release does not name the satellites used. A continuous public record of this kind needs the free land-imaging streams to continue123. Method papers that set the approach are cited as context3334.

S.4At a glance

8days

Landsat 8 and 9 land coverage2

6days

NISAR average revisit5

55variables

GCOS essential climate variables13

6.7million ha

tropical primary forest lost, 202412

220%

rise in GPS signal loss events, 2021 to 202423

2031target

Landsat 10 launch4

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading Earth observation as physical infrastructure and as the evidence base for other systems.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people Earth observation arrives as a map, a forest loss figure or a weather image.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Public funding passed by Congress was above the request, and commercial revenue is growing.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Earth observation is well described by single missions and thinly measured as a system.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of Earth observation and geospatial intelligence as infrastructure and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a forecast of any mission date, a technology ranking, an endorsement of any vendor or an assessment of any programme. Data policy, licensing and funding are decisions of competent authorities.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 Earth observation edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2USGS (ed.), Landsat 9 (mission page; launched 27 September 2021; 705 km sun-synchronous orbit; 16-day repeat cycle with an 8-day offset from Landsat 8; data at no charge). United States Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3USGS (ed.), Landsat Data Access (products free to download since 2008; Collection 2 available from commercial cloud with catalogue metadata). United States Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 6ESA (ed.), Sentinel-2 (mission page; 2A 23 June 2015, 2B 7 March 2017, 2C 5 September 2024; 13 bands; 10 m; 290 km swath; 5-day revisit). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 5NASA (ed.), NISAR mission overview (launched 30 July 2025 from India; 12-day coverage; average revisit about 6 days; 3 to 10 m; free and open data). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 7European Commission (ed.), About Copernicus (Earth observation component of the EU space programme; six services; free and openly accessible; archived site). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 12WRI (ed.), Global Forest Loss Shatters Records in 2024, Fueled by Massive Fires (release of 21 May 2025; 6.7 million hectares of tropical primary forest lost; nearly 50% from fire; Brazil 42%; data from the University of Maryland GLAD Lab at about 30 m). World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 4USGS (ed.), Landsat 10 (mission page; 26 spectral bands; 18-day revisit; 10 to 20 m and 60 m resolution; launch target 2031; draft request for proposal for the spacecraft on 18 May 2026). United States Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 24Planetary Society (ed.), You just saved NASA budget (analysis of H.R. 6938; Earth Science USD 2,153.0 million against USD 1,033.2 million requested; NASA Science USD 7.25 billion; House 8 January 2026, Senate 15 January 2026; signature awaited on the page). The Planetary Society, Pasadena. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 23EASA (ed.), EASA and IATA publish comprehensive plan to mitigate GNSS interference (release of 18 June 2025; four workstreams; workshop of over 120 experts in May 2025; IATA reports 220% rise in GPS signal loss events from 2021 to 2024). European Union Aviation Safety Agency, Cologne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 15ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2025 (web page of 1 April 2025; about 40,000 tracked objects; about 11,000 active payloads; estimated 1.2 million debris objects larger than 1 cm; data to end 2024). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 10ESA (ed.), Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem, about page (free access through quotas for individual use; larger use on commercial terms). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 13GCOS (ed.), Essential Climate Variables (list of 55 variables: 16 atmosphere, 20 land, 19 ocean; last updated 20 December 2024). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 14GCOS (ed.), GCOS publications index (latest status report listed is GCOS-240, 2021; earlier report 2015; report text not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 20ESA (ed.), ICEYE, Earth Online third party mission page (82 X-band SAR satellites launched for the ICEYE constellation as of 2026; constellation mean revisit at the equator 20 hours; access by accepted project proposal). European Space Agency, Frascati. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 21ICEYE (ed.), ICEYE launches four new satellites aboard Transporter-17 (release; launch 7 July 2026; 76 satellites launched in total; up to 16 cm resolution claimed; vendor announcement, weak evidence). ICEYE, Espoo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 22US Department of Commerce (ed.), Commercial Remote Sensing Regulatory Affairs (licensing of private remote sensing space systems under 15 CFR Part 960 and 51 U.S.C. 60101 et seq.; tiers not described on the page). Office of Space Commerce, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 25POST-CLOSE, context only: UN-GGIM (ed.), Committee of Experts on Global Geospatial Information Management (sixteenth session 5 to 7 August 2026; 282 delegates from 80 Member States; Integrated Geospatial Information Framework; World Geospatial Information Congress planned 16 to 19 November 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2021/696 establishing the Union Space Programme, 2021, cited from memory; the legal text page returned no content. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hansen, M.C. et al., High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change, Science 342, 850 to 853, 2013; the journal page returned an access error. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Wulder, M.A. et al., Opening the archive: how free data has enabled the science and monitoring promise of Landsat, Remote Sensing of Environment 122, 2 to 10, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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