Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Earth observation is infrastructure and evidence
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Continuity gap in public Earth observation data
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- A.1 Methods
- A.2 Model card, Earth observation System Model v0
- A.3 The baseline evidence cut
- A.4 Evidence age and coverage
- A.5 Evidence cards, two anchor sources
- A.6 Publication acceptance record
- A.7 Status words
- A.8 How the edition is made, released and corrected
- A.9 Glossary and abbreviations
- A.10 Technical annex
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Ratio of appropriated to requested NASA Earth Science funding, fiscal year 2026 | 2,153.0 ÷ 1,033.2 | about 2.1 times |
| (2) | Landsat 10 planned bands against Landsat 8 and 9 | 26 ÷ 11 | about 2.4 times |
| (3) | Difference between appropriated and requested funding | 2,153.0 − 1,033.2 | USD 1,119.8 million |
| (4) | Share of tracked objects that are active payloads | 11,000 ÷ 40,000 | about 28% |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, Earth observation System Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-XT19-EOGEO · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent Earth observation as infrastructure coupled to launch and orbit, ground segment, data policy, navigation signals, funding and governance
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
0strong
documented within one season
0moderate
documented, buffered
20weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- DC-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 43 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- the 2027 Earth observation annual cut
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 global annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited global publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Earth observation System Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landsat 9 and data access | 2021 to 2026 | launched Sep 2021 | continuous | Landsat 10 progress |
| NISAR mission | 2025 | launched Jul 2025 | continuous | first data releases |
| Sentinel-2 mission | 2024 | Sentinel-2C Sep 2024 | continuous | next launches |
| Sentinel-6 mission | 2025 | Sentinel-6B Nov 2025 | continuous | service entry |
| Orbit counts | 2024 | Apr 2025 | annual | next report |
| Forest loss | 2024 | May 2025 | annual | next release |
| Climate variable list | 2024 | Dec 2024 | periodic | status report |
| Navigation interference | 2021 to 2024 | Jun 2025 | periodic | next report |
| NASA funding | 2026 | Jan 2026 | annual | next request |
| Commercial fleet counts | 2026 | page reads Nov 2026 | per event | next launches |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Space segment | PARTIAL | commercial counts on a common basis |
| Data and archives | PARTIAL | archive volumes and access statistics |
| Climate | PARTIAL | coverage of the 55 variables |
| Navigation | PARTIAL | effects on observation services |
| Governance | PARTIAL | text of EU proposals |
| Energy | THIN | ground-segment footprint |
| Skills | THIN | workforce numbers |
| Finance | PARTIAL | enacted funding and non-US totals |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Energy, water and carbon footprint of ground segments, archives and processing | agencies, operators, peer-reviewed footprint studies | not published on a common basis; no figure read |
| Commercial satellite counts and revisit on a common basis | regulators, operator filings, independent catalogues | vendor and agency counts differ2021 |
| Share of essential climate variables met by current systems | GCOS status report 202114 | the publications page was read; the report text was not opened |
| Archive volumes of public agencies, current | NASA EOSDIS statistics30 | statistics page returned a service error; figures come from search summaries and date from 2021 |
| Ground-truth accuracy of vendor embedding models | peer-reviewed validation18 | self-reported performance only |
| Full 2025 totals of navigation interference by authority | EASA, ICAO and national regulators2331 | trade summaries give differing partial-year figures |
| Text of the EU Space Act proposal and the Union Space Programme regulation | EU legal texts4041 | the regulation page returned no text; the proposal page returned not found |
| Enacted NASA Earth Science funding and signature date | enacted appropriations act2432 | the analysis read was written before signature |
| Public funding totals for Earth observation outside the US | national budgets, ESA, OECD42 | not consolidated; OECD handbook page was not opened |
| Satellite counts by purpose, current | orbit databases1 | the database page lists totals only, with updates paused after May 2023 |
| Earth observation workforce and skills gaps | national statistics, OECD, industry surveys | not retrieved; capability rung stays LISTED |
| Optical vendor capacity and revisit from primary documents | company filings and mission papers2726 | company pages returned errors; figures differ across summaries |
| Uncertainty bounds for the 2024 tree cover loss figure | University of Maryland data documentation1233 | release page gives no error bounds |
| Capability rungs beyond monitoring and planning | agencies, operators, laboratories | not reviewed |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Published by NASA on its mission page; launch on 30 July 2025. Continuous mission. Role: binds INF-002 and the radar tile. Coverage: global land and ice, 3 to 10 m.
EVD-XT19-001
NISAR mission overview5
Issued by the World Resources Institute in May 2025 on University of Maryland data. Annual. Role: binds CLI-009. Coverage: tropical primary forest.
EVD-XT19-002
WRI release on 2024 forest loss12
| Dimension | EVD-XT19-001 | EVD-XT19-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | global land and ice; modes vary | tropics only; primary forest |
| Timeliness | launch July 2025; data flow follows | released about five months after year end |
| Revision | mission page updated as data release | annual updates; revisions possible |
| Method transparency | mission page states cycle and resolution | resolution stated; error bounds not on page |
| External validation | agency review; not read here | university data; method papers cited as context |
Evidence cards to follow in 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| EASA | European Union Aviation Safety Agency |
| EO | Earth observation |
| ECV | essential climate variable |
| GCOS | Global Climate Observing System |
| GLAD | Global Land Analysis and Discovery laboratory |
| GNSS | global navigation satellite system |
| IATA | International Air Transport Association |
| NISAR | NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar |
| OGC | Open Geospatial Consortium |
| SAR | synthetic aperture radar |
| STAC | SpatioTemporal Asset Catalog |
| UN-GGIM | UN Committee of Experts on Global Geospatial Information Management |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the global indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-XT19-CON-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Cluster notes | cards for the major observation and navigation clusters | 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: revisit time
- Construct
- interval between successive observations of the same ground location by a mission or constellation
- Unit
- days
- Method
- orbit repeat cycle and swath width, as stated by the mission owner
- Source
- ESA Sentinel-2 page6 and NASA NISAR page5
- Uncertainty
- not stated on the pages read
- Known limits
- definitions differ by mission; cloud cover and tasking change effective revisit
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 20ESA (ed.), ICEYE, Earth Online third party mission page (82 X-band SAR satellites launched for the ICEYE constellation as of 2026; constellation mean revisit at the equator 20 hours; access by accepted project proposal). European Space Agency, Frascati. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21ICEYE (ed.), ICEYE launches four new satellites aboard Transporter-17 (release; launch 7 July 2026; 76 satellites launched in total; up to 16 cm resolution claimed; vendor announcement, weak evidence). ICEYE, Espoo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14GCOS (ed.), GCOS publications index (latest status report listed is GCOS-240, 2021; earlier report 2015; report text not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: NASA (ed.), Earth Observing System Data and Information System archive statistics (59.24 petabytes on 30 September 2021; projections to 2030 differ by page), taken from search-result summaries; the statistics page returned an access error. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Google DeepMind (ed.), AlphaEarth Foundations (blog post of 30 July 2025; 10 m embeddings; 24% lower error rate than models tested; over 1.4 trillion embedding footprints per year; vendor announcement, weak evidence, performance self-reported). Google DeepMind, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23EASA (ed.), EASA and IATA publish comprehensive plan to mitigate GNSS interference (release of 18 June 2025; four workstreams; workshop of over 120 experts in May 2025; IATA reports 220% rise in GPS signal loss events from 2021 to 2024). European Union Aviation Safety Agency, Cologne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Baltic and Nordic States submission to ICAO on GNSS interference (about 123,000 flights affected from January to April 2025; April figures differ across outlets), taken from trade-press summaries. International Civil Aviation Organization, Montreal. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), proposal for an EU Space Act (regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities), June 2025, cited from memory; the proposal page returned not found. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2021/696 establishing the Union Space Programme, 2021, cited from memory; the legal text page returned no content. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24Planetary Society (ed.), You just saved NASA budget (analysis of H.R. 6938; Earth Science USD 2,153.0 million against USD 1,033.2 million requested; NASA Science USD 7.25 billion; House 8 January 2026, Senate 15 January 2026; signature awaited on the page). The Planetary Society, Pasadena. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: White House Office of Management and Budget (ed.), fiscal year 2026 budget request for NASA Earth science (cuts of more than 50%; more than 40 missions proposed for termination), taken from search-result summaries. Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), OECD Handbook on Measuring the Space Economy, third edition, 2022, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1Union of Concerned Scientists (ed.), UCS Satellite Database (data current through 1 May 2023; 7,560 operating satellites; page last updated 2 January 2024; updates paused). Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Vantor (ed.), WorldView Legion constellation (six satellites launched 2 May 2024 to 4 February 2025; 30 cm class; capacity figures differ across summaries), taken from search-result summaries. Vantor, Westminster. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Planet Labs PBC (ed.), fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 results (revenue USD 307.7 million, up 26%; 40 satellites launched in the fiscal year), taken from search-result summaries; the release page returned an access error. Planet Labs, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12WRI (ed.), Global Forest Loss Shatters Records in 2024, Fueled by Massive Fires (release of 21 May 2025; 6.7 million hectares of tropical primary forest lost; nearly 50% from fire; Brazil 42%; data from the University of Maryland GLAD Lab at about 30 m). World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hansen, M.C. et al., High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change, Science 342, 850 to 853, 2013; the journal page returned an access error. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5NASA (ed.), NISAR mission overview (launched 30 July 2025 from India; 12-day coverage; average revisit about 6 days; 3 to 10 m; free and open data). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4USGS (ed.), Landsat 10 (mission page; 26 spectral bands; 18-day revisit; 10 to 20 m and 60 m resolution; launch target 2031; draft request for proposal for the spacecraft on 18 May 2026). United States Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6ESA (ed.), Sentinel-2 (mission page; 2A 23 June 2015, 2B 7 March 2017, 2C 5 September 2024; 13 bands; 10 m; 290 km swath; 5-day revisit). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back