Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 Earth observation agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 Earth observation edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables4 notesNR-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Earth observation is infrastructure and evidence
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Continuity gap in public Earth observation data
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the Earth observation candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. O-01

    How continuous are the free public data streams if a mission fails or funding changes, and which users depend on a single stream?

    INI-XT19-CON-01 · continuity of public data; first output: continuity register.

  2. O-02

    How much do navigation interference and spoofing affect timing, location and tasking of observation services?

    INI-XT19-NAV-02 · navigation interference; first output: interference overlay.

  3. O-03

    How can commercial fleet counts, revisit and resolution be compared on a common basis?

    INI-XT19-COM-03 · claims on a common basis; first output: comparison table.

  4. O-04

    What do ground segments, archives and processing need in power, cooling and water?

    INI-XT19-FPR-04 · footprint; first output: footprint estimates.

  5. O-05

    How large are archives, and who can reach them at what cost?

    INI-XT19-ARC-05 · archives and access; first output: access map.

  6. O-06

    Which national policies set data terms, licensing and procurement for observation?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: policy overlay.

  7. O-07

    What workforce exists for sensor engineering, analysis and geospatial services?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. O-08

    Which readiness capabilities have been tested in real continuity events, and which are only planned?

    Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 Earth observation portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-XT19-CON-01Continuity of public dataInitiativeO-01PROPOSED
INI-XT19-NAV-02Navigation interferenceInitiativeO-02PROPOSED
INI-XT19-COM-03Claims on a common basisInitiativeO-03PROPOSED
INI-XT19-FPR-04Ground-segment footprintInitiativeO-04PROPOSED
INI-XT19-ARC-05Archives and accessInitiativeO-05PROPOSED
MSN-XT19-2027-01Continuity gap Universe missionMissionO-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The Earth observation edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on climate, disaster and infrastructure, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and lifeline editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National readiness chapters

    observation and geospatial readiness in each national edition

    IN PREPARATION · national baselines

  2. 02

    Sector couplings

    GS-12 Earth observation · GS-07 climate · GS-08 disaster

    GS-12 DRAFTED · sector baselines

  3. 03

    Technology system model

    satellites, data, navigation, funding, governance

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Strategic links

    SR-02 lifeline systems · SR-13 strategic technology

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    XT-19 report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the Earth observation candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the Earth observation candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-XT19-2027-01 · Continuity gap Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
INF-001 · land imagingINI-XT19-CON-01continuity of public dataPUBLIC
INF-002 · radarINI-XT19-CON-01continuity of public dataPUBLIC
INF-005 · commercial countsINI-XT19-COM-03claims on a common basisPUBLIC
GOV-010 · navigationINI-XT19-NAV-02navigation interferencePUBLIC
DAT-007 · open dataINI-XT19-ARC-05archives and accessPUBLIC
INF-004 · orbitsINI-XT19-FPR-04 · key F reviewground-segment footprintPUBLIC
FIN-011 · fundingregional consortiafunding overlayPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-XT19-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
USGS and NASA mission pagesagenciesper eventINF-001
ESA Sentinel pagesagencyper eventINF-003
Orbit tracking and ESA reportsagencyannualINF-004
Vendor announcementscompaniesper eventINF-005
Annual tree cover loss releaseWRI and universityannualCLI-009
Appropriations and budget requestslegislature and agenciesannualFIN-011
Aviation interference reportingEASA and IATAper releaseGOV-010

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-XT19-001Tropical primary forest loss reached 6.7 million hectares in 202412CORROBORATEDCLI · INFresearch question O-01
SIG-XT19-002Navigation signal loss events rose 220% from 2021 to 202423PARTIALGOV · INFinitiative O-02
SIG-XT19-003Vendor fleet counts differ across sources2021PARTIALINFresearch question O-03

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 12WRI (ed.), Global Forest Loss Shatters Records in 2024, Fueled by Massive Fires (release of 21 May 2025; 6.7 million hectares of tropical primary forest lost; nearly 50% from fire; Brazil 42%; data from the University of Maryland GLAD Lab at about 30 m). World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 23EASA (ed.), EASA and IATA publish comprehensive plan to mitigate GNSS interference (release of 18 June 2025; four workstreams; workshop of over 120 experts in May 2025; IATA reports 220% rise in GPS signal loss events from 2021 to 2024). European Union Aviation Safety Agency, Cologne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 20ESA (ed.), ICEYE, Earth Online third party mission page (82 X-band SAR satellites launched for the ICEYE constellation as of 2026; constellation mean revisit at the equator 20 hours; access by accepted project proposal). European Space Agency, Frascati. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 21ICEYE (ed.), ICEYE launches four new satellites aboard Transporter-17 (release; launch 7 July 2026; 76 satellites launched in total; up to 16 cm resolution claimed; vendor announcement, weak evidence). ICEYE, Espoo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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