Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the Earth observation baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables19 notesNR-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Earth observation is infrastructure and evidence
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Infrastructure
    3. 2.3 Governance
    4. 2.4 Data and digital
    5. 2.5 Climate forcing
    6. 2.6 Finance
    7. 2.7 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Continuity gap in public Earth observation data
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-009

A University of Maryland team reported 6.7 million hectares of tropical primary forest lost in 2024, nearly half caused by fire, with Brazil accounting for 42% of the loss.

Figure 2.1Tropical primary forest loss in 2024
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Loss (million hectares)6.7
Share caused by fire (%, nearly)≈50
Share in Brazil (%)42

Source: WRI release of May 2025 on data produced by the University of Maryland GLAD Lab12. Units differ; shown for scale only.

Implication

Observation turns a diffuse loss into a countable one. The data are described as capturing changes at about 30 m resolution, and the release does not name the satellites used. A continuous public record of this kind needs the free land-imaging streams to continue123. Method papers that set the approach are cited as context3334.

What would move it

The next annual release, any revision of the 2024 figure and the continuity of land-imaging missions would each move this finding.

2.2Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001

    Landsat 9 launched on 27 September 2021 and, with Landsat 8, provides 8-day coverage of the land mass; Landsat products have been free to download since 2008.23

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002

    NASA launched the NISAR radar mission on 30 July 2025, with a 12-day coverage cycle, an average revisit of about 6 days, 3 to 10 m resolution and free and open data.5

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-003

    ESA lists a 5-day revisit for Sentinel-2 at 10 m with 13 bands and a 290 km swath; Sentinel-2C launched on 5 September 2024.635

  4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-004

    ESA counts about 40,000 tracked objects in orbit at the end of 2024, about 11,000 of them active payloads, and estimates 1.2 million debris objects larger than 1 cm.15

  5. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-005

    A commercial radar operator reports 76 satellites launched by July 2026 in its own release, while ESA lists 82 as of 2026; the two counts differ. A later vendor count is post-close, context only, and is not bound here.2021

2.3Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-006

    USGS lists Landsat 10 with 26 spectral bands, an 18-day revisit and a 2031 launch target; a draft request for proposal for the spacecraft was released in May 2026.4

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010

    IATA reports a 220% increase in GPS signal loss events between 2021 and 2024, and EASA and IATA published a four-workstream mitigation plan on 18 June 2025.23

2.4Data and digital

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DAT-007

    Copernicus information services are free and openly accessible, and the Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem grants free access through quotas, with larger use on commercial terms.710

  2. ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DAT-008

    A vendor cloud platform lists an archive of over 80 petabytes, and the vendor reports that its embedding model has a 24% lower error rate than models it tested; both statements are self-reported.1819

2.5Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-009

    A University of Maryland team reported 6.7 million hectares of tropical primary forest lost in 2024, nearly half caused by fire, and Brazil accounted for 42% of the loss.1233

2.6Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011

    The fiscal year 2026 appropriations bill passed in January 2026 provides USD 2,153.0 million for NASA Earth Science, against a request of USD 1,033.2 million.2432

2.7Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a continuity gap: free public missions, their funding and navigation signals each face stress while users depend on all three. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 12WRI (ed.), Global Forest Loss Shatters Records in 2024, Fueled by Massive Fires (release of 21 May 2025; 6.7 million hectares of tropical primary forest lost; nearly 50% from fire; Brazil 42%; data from the University of Maryland GLAD Lab at about 30 m). World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3USGS (ed.), Landsat Data Access (products free to download since 2008; Collection 2 available from commercial cloud with catalogue metadata). United States Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hansen, M.C. et al., High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change, Science 342, 850 to 853, 2013; the journal page returned an access error. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Wulder, M.A. et al., Opening the archive: how free data has enabled the science and monitoring promise of Landsat, Remote Sensing of Environment 122, 2 to 10, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 2USGS (ed.), Landsat 9 (mission page; launched 27 September 2021; 705 km sun-synchronous orbit; 16-day repeat cycle with an 8-day offset from Landsat 8; data at no charge). United States Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 5NASA (ed.), NISAR mission overview (launched 30 July 2025 from India; 12-day coverage; average revisit about 6 days; 3 to 10 m; free and open data). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 6ESA (ed.), Sentinel-2 (mission page; 2A 23 June 2015, 2B 7 March 2017, 2C 5 September 2024; 13 bands; 10 m; 290 km swath; 5-day revisit). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Drusch, M. et al., Sentinel-2: ESA optical high-resolution mission for GMES operational services, Remote Sensing of Environment 120, 25 to 36, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 15ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2025 (web page of 1 April 2025; about 40,000 tracked objects; about 11,000 active payloads; estimated 1.2 million debris objects larger than 1 cm; data to end 2024). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 20ESA (ed.), ICEYE, Earth Online third party mission page (82 X-band SAR satellites launched for the ICEYE constellation as of 2026; constellation mean revisit at the equator 20 hours; access by accepted project proposal). European Space Agency, Frascati. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 21ICEYE (ed.), ICEYE launches four new satellites aboard Transporter-17 (release; launch 7 July 2026; 76 satellites launched in total; up to 16 cm resolution claimed; vendor announcement, weak evidence). ICEYE, Espoo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 4USGS (ed.), Landsat 10 (mission page; 26 spectral bands; 18-day revisit; 10 to 20 m and 60 m resolution; launch target 2031; draft request for proposal for the spacecraft on 18 May 2026). United States Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 23EASA (ed.), EASA and IATA publish comprehensive plan to mitigate GNSS interference (release of 18 June 2025; four workstreams; workshop of over 120 experts in May 2025; IATA reports 220% rise in GPS signal loss events from 2021 to 2024). European Union Aviation Safety Agency, Cologne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 7European Commission (ed.), About Copernicus (Earth observation component of the EU space programme; six services; free and openly accessible; archived site). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 10ESA (ed.), Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem, about page (free access through quotas for individual use; larger use on commercial terms). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 18Google DeepMind (ed.), AlphaEarth Foundations (blog post of 30 July 2025; 10 m embeddings; 24% lower error rate than models tested; over 1.4 trillion embedding footprints per year; vendor announcement, weak evidence, performance self-reported). Google DeepMind, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 19Google (ed.), Earth Engine (product page; multi-petabyte catalogue; over eighty petabytes stated; commercial use available and free for academic and research use; vendor statements, weak evidence). Google, Mountain View. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 24Planetary Society (ed.), You just saved NASA budget (analysis of H.R. 6938; Earth Science USD 2,153.0 million against USD 1,033.2 million requested; NASA Science USD 7.25 billion; House 8 January 2026, Senate 15 January 2026; signature awaited on the page). The Planetary Society, Pasadena. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: White House Office of Management and Budget (ed.), fiscal year 2026 budget request for NASA Earth science (cuts of more than 50%; more than 40 missions proposed for termination), taken from search-result summaries. Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskExponential Technology

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices