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Systems and sectors at baseline

7 min read0 figures2 tables23 notesNR-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Earth observation is infrastructure and evidence
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Continuity gap in public Earth observation data
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

INF · Land imaging

Landsat 8 and 9 combined land coverage

8days

data free since 2008.

Reported2021USGS2

INF · Radar

NISAR average revisit

6days

launched 30 July 2025; 3 to 10 m.

Reported2025NASA5

INF · Copernicus

Sentinel-2 stated revisit

5days

13 bands, 10 m, 290 km swath.

Reported2024ESA6

INF · Orbit

Objects tracked in orbit

≈40,000objects

about 11,000 are active payloads.

Reported2024ESA15

CLI · Forests

Tropical primary forest lost

6.7million hectares

fire caused nearly half.

Reported2024WRI12

FIN · Funding

NASA Earth Science in the fiscal year 2026 bill

2.15USD billion

USD 2,153.0 million against 1,033.2 requested.

Reported2026Planetary Society24

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through Earth observation, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries Earth observation risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATWater extent and surface water are mapped from archives; no footprint or coverage figure is bound here.INF → WATInferred EQL 2
ENEEnergy use of ground segments and archives is not published here; no figure bound.ENE ↔ INFExpert input EQL 1
FOOCrop and land monitoring depend on free land imaging; no figure bound here.INF → FOOInferred EQL 2
HLTNo documented coupling at baseline in the evidence read.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
BIOForest loss is mapped from satellite data at about 30 m12.INF → BIOReported EQL 4
CLIGCOS lists 55 essential climate variables; sea-level and forest records rely on satellites91213.INF → CLIReported EQL 4
INFThe core system: public missions flying, Landsat 10 a 2031 target, orbits crowded.the core systemReported EQL 4
FINNASA Earth Science funding in the fiscal year 2026 bill is above the request24.FIN → INFReported EQL 3
DATFree and open data terms for Landsat, Copernicus and NISAR; vendor archives reported at over 80 petabytes35719.INF → DATReported EQL 4
AICVendor embedding models report lower error; claims are self-reported and not independently confirmed here18.DAT → AICReported EQL 2
MINNo documented coupling at baseline in the evidence read; materials for sensors not bound.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
TRDLicensing and export rules shape commercial imagery; navigation signal loss affects flights2223.INF ↔ TRDInferred EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on Earth observation, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemobservation couples to climate, disaster and navigationcontinuity gapPARTIAL
GS-01Watersurface water mapping from archives38coverage not boundTHIN
GS-02Energyground-segment footprint unpublishednone documentedTHIN
GS-03Foodcrop monitoring relies on free imagingcoverage not boundTHIN
GS-04Healthno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-05Financepublic funding stress and commercial revenue2426funding continuityPARTIAL
GS-06Developmentfree data widen access37skills and computing gapsTHIN
GS-07Climateessential climate variables and sea level913continuity of recordsGOOD
GS-08Disasterradar and optical tasking for events520navigation interferencePARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructuresatellites, ground stations and orbits15crowded orbitsPARTIAL
GS-10Citiesno documented coupling in evidence readnone documentedTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityforest loss mapped at about 30 m12attribution limitsPARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationpublic missions, open data and commercial fleets25620continuity and common basisGOOD
GS-13Cyber and digitalnavigation interference and ground-segment security23reporting gapsPARTIAL
GS-14Policynational licensing, EU programme and UN frameworks222541rules differ by statePARTIAL
GS-15Sciencepeer-reviewed base for sensors and products34353637validation of new modelsGOOD

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2USGS (ed.), Landsat 9 (mission page; launched 27 September 2021; 705 km sun-synchronous orbit; 16-day repeat cycle with an 8-day offset from Landsat 8; data at no charge). United States Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 5NASA (ed.), NISAR mission overview (launched 30 July 2025 from India; 12-day coverage; average revisit about 6 days; 3 to 10 m; free and open data). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 6ESA (ed.), Sentinel-2 (mission page; 2A 23 June 2015, 2B 7 March 2017, 2C 5 September 2024; 13 bands; 10 m; 290 km swath; 5-day revisit). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 15ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2025 (web page of 1 April 2025; about 40,000 tracked objects; about 11,000 active payloads; estimated 1.2 million debris objects larger than 1 cm; data to end 2024). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 12WRI (ed.), Global Forest Loss Shatters Records in 2024, Fueled by Massive Fires (release of 21 May 2025; 6.7 million hectares of tropical primary forest lost; nearly 50% from fire; Brazil 42%; data from the University of Maryland GLAD Lab at about 30 m). World Resources Institute, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 24Planetary Society (ed.), You just saved NASA budget (analysis of H.R. 6938; Earth Science USD 2,153.0 million against USD 1,033.2 million requested; NASA Science USD 7.25 billion; House 8 January 2026, Senate 15 January 2026; signature awaited on the page). The Planetary Society, Pasadena. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 9ESA (ed.), Sentinel-6 (mission page; Sentinel-6B launched 17 November 2025; reference altimetry mission to 2030 at least; 95% of the ocean measured). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 13GCOS (ed.), Essential Climate Variables (list of 55 variables: 16 atmosphere, 20 land, 19 ocean; last updated 20 December 2024). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 3USGS (ed.), Landsat Data Access (products free to download since 2008; Collection 2 available from commercial cloud with catalogue metadata). United States Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 7European Commission (ed.), About Copernicus (Earth observation component of the EU space programme; six services; free and openly accessible; archived site). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 19Google (ed.), Earth Engine (product page; multi-petabyte catalogue; over eighty petabytes stated; commercial use available and free for academic and research use; vendor statements, weak evidence). Google, Mountain View. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 18Google DeepMind (ed.), AlphaEarth Foundations (blog post of 30 July 2025; 10 m embeddings; 24% lower error rate than models tested; over 1.4 trillion embedding footprints per year; vendor announcement, weak evidence, performance self-reported). Google DeepMind, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 22US Department of Commerce (ed.), Commercial Remote Sensing Regulatory Affairs (licensing of private remote sensing space systems under 15 CFR Part 960 and 51 U.S.C. 60101 et seq.; tiers not described on the page). Office of Space Commerce, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 23EASA (ed.), EASA and IATA publish comprehensive plan to mitigate GNSS interference (release of 18 June 2025; four workstreams; workshop of over 120 experts in May 2025; IATA reports 220% rise in GPS signal loss events from 2021 to 2024). European Union Aviation Safety Agency, Cologne. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pekel, J.-F. et al., High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes, Nature 540, 418 to 422, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Planet Labs PBC (ed.), fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 results (revenue USD 307.7 million, up 26%; 40 satellites launched in the fiscal year), taken from search-result summaries; the release page returned an access error. Planet Labs, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 20ESA (ed.), ICEYE, Earth Online third party mission page (82 X-band SAR satellites launched for the ICEYE constellation as of 2026; constellation mean revisit at the equator 20 hours; access by accepted project proposal). European Space Agency, Frascati. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 25POST-CLOSE, context only: UN-GGIM (ed.), Committee of Experts on Global Geospatial Information Management (sixteenth session 5 to 7 August 2026; 282 delegates from 80 Member States; Integrated Geospatial Information Framework; World Geospatial Information Congress planned 16 to 19 November 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2021/696 establishing the Union Space Programme, 2021, cited from memory; the legal text page returned no content. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Wulder, M.A. et al., Opening the archive: how free data has enabled the science and monitoring promise of Landsat, Remote Sensing of Environment 122, 2 to 10, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Drusch, M. et al., Sentinel-2: ESA optical high-resolution mission for GMES operational services, Remote Sensing of Environment 120, 25 to 36, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Torres, R. et al., GMES Sentinel-1 mission, Remote Sensing of Environment 120, 9 to 24, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gorelick, N. et al., Google Earth Engine: planetary-scale geospatial analysis for everyone, Remote Sensing of Environment 202, 18 to 27, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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