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Continuity gap in public Earth observation data

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables3 notesNR-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Earth observation is infrastructure and evidence
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Continuity gap in public Earth observation data
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-XT19-CON-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a mission fault or funding change arrives while navigation signal loss and crowded orbits persist
Analogues
the 2024 to 2025 launches of Sentinel-2C and NISAR, and the 2031 target for Landsat 10456
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    GOV → INF

    a funding or mission decision delays a successor

    2026

  2. 2

    INF → DAT

    a free data stream thins or ends for some regions

    2025

  3. 3

    DAT → CLI

    a climate or forest record loses continuity

    2024

  4. 4

    TRD → INF

    navigation interference degrades timing for users

    2025

  5. 5

    FIN → INF

    commercial supply fills gaps on vendor terms

    2026

  6. 6

    GOV → DAT

    access rules diverge between states

    2025

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-XT19-CON-01 would travel through Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Governance to infrastructureA funding or mission decision delays a successor. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-19, scenario SCN-XT19-CON-01, step 1
02 Infrastructure to datA free data stream thins or ends for some regions. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-19, scenario SCN-XT19-CON-01, step 2
03 DAT to climateA climate or forest record loses continuity. Analogue or source: 2024.Edition XT-19, scenario SCN-XT19-CON-01, step 3
04 Trade to infrastructureNavigation interference degrades timing for users. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-19, scenario SCN-XT19-CON-01, step 4
05 Finance to infrastructureCommercial supply fills gaps on vendor terms. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition XT-19, scenario SCN-XT19-CON-01, step 5
06 Governance to datAccess rules diverge between states. Analogue or source: 2025.Edition XT-19, scenario SCN-XT19-CON-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence 2026, scenario SCN-XT19-CON-01 (2026); Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 4USGS (ed.), Landsat 10 (mission page; 26 spectral bands; 18-day revisit; 10 to 20 m and 60 m resolution; launch target 2031; draft request for proposal for the spacecraft on 18 May 2026). United States Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 5NASA (ed.), NISAR mission overview (launched 30 July 2025 from India; 12-day coverage; average revisit about 6 days; 3 to 10 m; free and open data). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 6ESA (ed.), Sentinel-2 (mission page; 2A 23 June 2015, 2B 7 March 2017, 2C 5 September 2024; 13 bands; 10 m; 290 km swath; 5-day revisit). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Continuity gap in public Earth observation data. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-EOGEO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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