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Neurotechnology is clinical hardware and a new class of personal data

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.

7 min read2 figures1 table15 notesNR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Neurotechnology is clinical hardware and a new class of personal data
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Consumer neural data outside medical rules
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is neurotechnology risk concentrated?
  • Which couplings carry neurotechnology shocks into other systems?
  • Which neurotechnology capabilities hold under compound stress?
  • What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five footprint and governance chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Neurotechnology is usually discussed as a race between implant companies. The 2026 evidence reads it as two things at once: clinical hardware that must be powered, built from specialised materials and followed for years, and a source of data that can reveal intent and, in some studies, inner speech159.

The clinical evidence is strong for single participants. A speech decoder reached 62 words per minute on a 125,000-word vocabulary1, another a median of 78 words per minute2, and a later study 97.5% accuracy beyond eight months3. A brain-spine interface stayed stable for over one year7. These are results in one or a few people, not products.

The rules are being written now. UNESCO adopted a Recommendation in November 202510, Colorado covers neural data14, Chile amended its constitution and a court ordered deletion17, and a US Senate bill would direct the FTC to study neural data11. China set industrial targets for 2027 and 203016.

The physical base is the least measured part. No power or heat budget is bound here, long-term signal loss is an open problem in the literature2224, and market size estimates in trade sources differ widely29.

Figure 1.1How accurate was one speech decoder over time? Percent of words correct

One participant with ALS and 256 intracortical electrodes reached high accuracy within hours of training and kept it beyond eight months. This is one person and a preprint record; the journal version is noted in the record3.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Day 1, 50-word vocabulary99.6
Day 2, 125,000-word vocabulary90.2
Beyond eight months, 125,000-word vocabulary97.5

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2023.

Figure ID FIG-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003

99.6%

day 1, 50 words3

90.2%

day 2, 125,000 words3

97.5%

beyond eight months3

256electrodes

intracortical3

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The neurotechnology-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their neurotechnology content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link
ENE EnergyWEAK
no documented link		·WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
clinical power supply, undocumented		WEAK
no documented link
FOO FoodWEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		·WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link
HLT HealthWEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		·WEAK
tissue response to implants
BIO BiodiversityWEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
no documented link		WEAK
electrode biocompatibility		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    INF → HLT

    Implanted interfaces restore communication and movement in single participants.

    Reported speech and spinal results17

  2. 02

    INF → DAT

    Neural signals can carry intent and inner speech.

    Reported inner speech study5

  3. 03

    FIN → INF

    Investment funds trials and manufacturing.

    Reported company round20

  4. 04

    BIO → INF

    Tissue response and electrode materials limit long-term signal.

    Inferred literature2224

  5. 05

    GOV → DAT

    Laws and recommendations set how neural data may be used.

    Reported UNESCO, Colorado, US bill101411

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Willett, F.R. et al., A high-performance speech neuroprosthesis, Nature 620(7976), 1031 to 1036, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: 62 words per minute; 23.8% word error rate on 125,000 words; 9.1% on 50 words). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 5Kunz, E.M. et al., Inner speech in motor cortex and implications for speech neuroprostheses, Cell 188(17), 4658 to 4673, published online 14 August 2025 (reference record read: four participants). Cell Press, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 9US Food and Drug Administration (ed.), Implanted Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Devices for Patients with Paralysis or Amputation: Non-clinical Testing and Clinical Considerations, final guidance, May 2021 (guidance page read). Center for Devices and Radiological Health, Silver Spring. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 2Metzger, S.L. et al., A high-performance neuroprosthesis for speech decoding and avatar control, Nature 620(7976), 1037 to 1046, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: median 78 words per minute; median word error rate 25%). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 3Card, N.S. et al., An accurate and rapidly calibrating speech neuroprosthesis, medRxiv preprint, 26 December 2023 (preprint record read: 99.6% on 50 words on day 1; 90.2% on 125,000 words on day 2; 97.5% beyond eight months; 256 electrodes; the record notes the New England Journal of Medicine version 391(7), 609 to 618, August 2024). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 7Lorach, H. et al., Walking naturally after spinal cord injury using a brain-spine interface, Nature 618(7963), 126 to 133, published online 24 May 2023 (reference record read: fully implanted; stable for over one year; one man with chronic tetraplegia). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 10UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Neurotechnology (page read: adopted November 2025 at the 43rd session of the General Conference; mandate entrusted by 194 Member States in 2023; the page states no neural data provisions). United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 14Colorado General Assembly (ed.), HB24-1058 Protect Privacy of Biological Data (bill page read: signed 17 April 2024; effective 7 August 2024). Colorado General Assembly, Denver. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 17Cornejo-Plaza, M.I., Cippitani, R. and Pasquino, V., Chilean Supreme Court ruling on the protection of brain activity: neurorights, personal data protection, and neurodata, Frontiers in Psychology 15, 27 February 2024 (reference record read). Frontiers Media, Lausanne. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 11United States Senate (ed.), Management of Individuals Neural Data Act of 2025 (MIND Act), S. 2925, 119th Congress, introduced text (text read: FTC study and report within one year of enactment; USD 10 million authorised; referred to committee). US Government Publishing Office, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 16Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other bodies (eds.), Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of the Brain-Computer Interface Industry, MIIT (2025) No. 164, 23 July 2025, English translation by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, 18 December 2025 (translation page read). Georgetown University, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 22Ma, X. et al., Using adversarial networks to extend brain computer interface decoding accuracy over time, eLife 12, e84296, 2023 (reference record read). eLife Sciences, Cambridge. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 24Feng, Y. et al., Brain-computer interfaces: the dawn of a new era in disease treatment, Exploration 6(3), 2026 (reference record read: electrode biocompatibility and signal resolution named as challenges). Wiley, Beijing. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: market-research reports on the neurotechnology and brain-computer interface markets for 2025 (several firms; figures differ by a large factor depending on definition), taken from search-result summaries; weak evidence and no figure used. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 20Zeff, M., Elon Musk Neuralink closes a USD 650 million Series E (trade report, 2 June 2025; page read; vendor statement as reported: five people implanted; valuation of about USD 9 billion pre-money from an earlier press report). TechCrunch, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Neurotechnology is clinical hardware and a new class of personal data. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Neurotechnology and Human–Machine Interfaces (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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