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Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables13 notesNR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Neurotechnology is clinical hardware and a new class of personal data
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Consumer neural data outside medical rules
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

INF · Hardware

Large-vocabulary speech decoding rate

62words per minute

one participant, 125,000-word vocabulary.

Reported2023Nature1

INF · Accuracy

Speech decoder accuracy beyond eight months

97.5%

one participant; preprint record, journal version noted.

Reported2023preprint3

HLT · Clinic

Participants in the one-year endovascular study

5participants

16-channel array; preprint, not peer reviewed.

Reported2025preprint8

FIN · Finance

Neuralink funding round

650USD million

company blog as reported by a trade outlet; vendor statement.

Reported2025trade report20

GOV · Governance

States named by Senate sponsors as having neural data laws

4states

Colorado, California, Montana and Connecticut, as named.

Reported2025Senate release12

SYS · Cross-system

Estimated enrolment in the PRIME feasibility study

15participants

registry estimate; study recruiting.

Reported2026registry13

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through neurotechnology, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries neurotechnology risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATCooling water is not a documented coupling for implanted devices.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
ENEImplant power and charging budgets are not bound in this edition.ENE → INFExpert input EQL 1
FOONo documented coupling at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
HLTClinical results in paralysis and spinal injury; benefit shown in single participants.INF → HLTReported EQL 4
BIOBiocompatibility of electrodes limits long-term use; no failure rate is bound.BIO ↔ INFReported EQL 3
CLINo documented coupling at baseline.none documentedExpert input EQL 1
INFThe core system: speech, spinal and endovascular interfaces working in single participants.the core systemReported EQL 4
FINA USD 650 million company round in 2025; market size not on a common basis.FIN → INFReported EQL 2
DATNeural data raise privacy questions; inner speech was decoded in four participants.INF → DATReported EQL 3
AICTrained decoders turn signals into text and speech; decoder drift is studied.INF ↔ AICReported EQL 3
MINElectrode materials are named in the literature; no mineral dependence is bound.MIN → INFInferred EQL 2
TRDIndustrial policy targets name electrodes and chips; trade exposure is not bound.TRD ↔ INFInferred EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on neurotechnology, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemneurotechnology couples to health, data and materialsconsumer data outside medical rulesTHIN
GS-01Waterno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-02Energyimplant power not boundnone documentedTHIN
GS-03Foodno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-04Healthclinical results in paralysis17access and follow-upPARTIAL
GS-05FinanceUSD 650 million company round20claims ahead of evidenceTHIN
GS-06Developmentaccess to implants and skilled teamswidening gapsTHIN
GS-07Climateno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-08Disasterno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-09Infrastructureclinical sites and surgical capacityfew implanting centresTHIN
GS-10Citiesno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-12Earth observationno documented couplingnone documentedTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitalneural data and inner speech decoding5security of implants and dataPARTIAL
GS-14PolicyUNESCO, US bills, state laws, Chile10111417fragmented rulesPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencestrong peer-reviewed base127long-term outcomesGOOD

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Willett, F.R. et al., A high-performance speech neuroprosthesis, Nature 620(7976), 1031 to 1036, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: 62 words per minute; 23.8% word error rate on 125,000 words; 9.1% on 50 words). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 3Card, N.S. et al., An accurate and rapidly calibrating speech neuroprosthesis, medRxiv preprint, 26 December 2023 (preprint record read: 99.6% on 50 words on day 1; 90.2% on 125,000 words on day 2; 97.5% beyond eight months; 256 electrodes; the record notes the New England Journal of Medicine version 391(7), 609 to 618, August 2024). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 8Chetty, N. et al., Signal properties and stability of a chronically implanted endovascular brain computer interface, medRxiv preprint, 25 September 2025 (preprint record read: five participants; 16-channel array; one year; not peer reviewed). Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 20Zeff, M., Elon Musk Neuralink closes a USD 650 million Series E (trade report, 2 June 2025; page read; vendor statement as reported: five people implanted; valuation of about USD 9 billion pre-money from an earlier press report). TechCrunch, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 12US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (ed.), release on the introduction of the MIND Act, 24 September 2025 (release read: names Colorado, California, Montana and Connecticut as states with neural data laws). US Senate, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 13ClinicalTrials.gov (ed.), PRIME: An Early Feasibility Study of a Precise Robotically Implanted Brain-Computer Interface for the Control of External Devices, NCT06429735 (record read: recruiting; start 9 January 2024; estimated enrolment 15; updated January 2026; sponsor-supplied entry). National Library of Medicine, Bethesda. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 7Lorach, H. et al., Walking naturally after spinal cord injury using a brain-spine interface, Nature 618(7963), 126 to 133, published online 24 May 2023 (reference record read: fully implanted; stable for over one year; one man with chronic tetraplegia). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 5Kunz, E.M. et al., Inner speech in motor cortex and implications for speech neuroprostheses, Cell 188(17), 4658 to 4673, published online 14 August 2025 (reference record read: four participants). Cell Press, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 10UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Neurotechnology (page read: adopted November 2025 at the 43rd session of the General Conference; mandate entrusted by 194 Member States in 2023; the page states no neural data provisions). United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 11United States Senate (ed.), Management of Individuals Neural Data Act of 2025 (MIND Act), S. 2925, 119th Congress, introduced text (text read: FTC study and report within one year of enactment; USD 10 million authorised; referred to committee). US Government Publishing Office, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 14Colorado General Assembly (ed.), HB24-1058 Protect Privacy of Biological Data (bill page read: signed 17 April 2024; effective 7 August 2024). Colorado General Assembly, Denver. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 17Cornejo-Plaza, M.I., Cippitani, R. and Pasquino, V., Chilean Supreme Court ruling on the protection of brain activity: neurorights, personal data protection, and neurodata, Frontiers in Psychology 15, 27 February 2024 (reference record read). Frontiers Media, Lausanne. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 2Metzger, S.L. et al., A high-performance neuroprosthesis for speech decoding and avatar control, Nature 620(7976), 1037 to 1046, published online 23 August 2023 (reference record read: median 78 words per minute; median word error rate 25%). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Exponential Technology Report 2026: Neurotechnology and Human–Machine Interfaces (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-NEURO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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